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Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Giants Prospects according to FanGraphs



This is not comforting when you consider that the 2018 arrivals listed include:
  • Steven Duggar
  • Tyler Beede
  • Chris Shaw
  • Andrew Suarez
  • D.J. Snelten
  • Austin Slater
  • Tyler Herb
  • Reyes Moronta
  • Miguel Gomez
We've seen many of these guy perform already.  Any hope for the big league team's future from this list? BTW: FanGraphs ranks none of the above a Top 100 prospect among all major league teams. 

The 2019 arrivals include:
  • Garrett Williams (a seventh rounder)
  • Aramis Garcia
  • C.J. Hinojosa (an 11th rounder)
BTW: FanGraphs doesn't rate the Giants badly in term of quantity. Based on the table below, you would expect to have 24.5 prospects make the list, the Giant have 22.

In term of relative quality, which I look at as the average position on the board, the Giants grade out slightly below average here as well.   


This means that the way out of this problem is pretty much the way we got in, which is allocation of free-agent dollars and trades. So the same mind-set re: roster construction that gave you Samardzija, Cueto, Span etc. have to pull a couple of more rabbits out of their hat. That or more trades. 

The answer does not appear to be in the farm system anywhere before 2023. 



Tuesday, May 29, 2018

MLB reportedly admits Anthony Rizzo's controversial slide vs. the Pirates should have been called illegal

Image result for rizzo slide dirty


There, that didn't take long now did it? St. Joe probably will still maintain that we should be teaching our kids to be dirty players, but that's his problem.
  • We now have rules not being enforced that were put in place to enforce prior rules that were in place but not being enforced by umpires.
  • We now have instant replay that is consistently not picking up mistakes made by the umpires on the field. And apologies to teams impacted by these errors are just not going to do the trick too much longer. 
MLB and Instant replay are a joke. But, at least they aren't as big a joke as Joe Maddon and Anthony Rizzo. 

from cbssports.com
MLB reportedly admits Anthony Rizzo's controversial slide vs. the Pirates should have been called illegal

Breaking: Source indicates the league believes interference should have been called yesterday re Anthony Rizzo's 8th inning slide at home plate. Both teams have been informed of that decision which differs from the call on the field and the umpires video review.  
Rizzo had already been forced out at the plate before the slide. Had the play been called interference, the Pirates would've been given the out on Diaz's throw to first base. It would've made a significant difference in the game. Consider the situations:
  • Rizzo slide called legal: Cubs up 5-0, runner on second with one out.
  • Rizzo slide called illegal: Cubs up 3-0, runners on second and third with two outs.
Maybe those runners score and the Cubs take a 5-0 lead anyway. Who knows? I do know a 5-0 game is very different than a 3-0 game though. Both Cubs manager Joe Maddon and Pirates manager Clint Hurdle would've used their bullpen differently.
MLB rule 6.01(i) says the "runner attempting to score may not deviate from his direct pathway to the plate in order to initiate contact with the catcher (or other player covering home plate), or otherwise initiate an avoidable collision." Rizzo, clearly, deviated from his path to initiate an avoidable collision. Was it a dirty slide? I'm not sure. Was it against the rules? For sure.
For whatever reason, MLB's replay crew did not see it that way at the time, and the play stood. The slide was called legal. Now MLB has reportedly backtracked, and informed both teams the slide should've been ruled illegal. That doesn't help the Pirates now, but at least the league is acknowledging the mistake.

Shared via CBS Sports
http://cbssportsapp.com


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Giants blow two leads, lose in 10th to Rockies - San Francisco Chronicle


Image result for sf giants suck


This is who the Giants are. Why blow one lead when you can blow two leads, right?

from sfchronicle.com
Giants blow two leads, lose in 10th to Rockies - San Francisco Chronicle:

After the Giants reached the one-third point of the season at 25-29, manager Bruce Bochy said they plan to have Bumgarner throw one more minor-league game at San Jose on Thursday to extend his pitch count.
'via Blog this'

At 25-29 a third of the way through I get 75-87, not much better than last year, and that's before surrendering into being a seller at the trade deadline. The feeling I get is that the Giants are 1-3 versus +.500 teams and no better than .500 against below .500 teams. They struggle to win series' against bad teams, let's face it.

So 27-54 versus good teams and 40.5-40.5 versus bad teams equals 67.5 - 94.5, let's round that up to 68-94, although I'm not even sure the Giants have shown anything worthy of even that 0.5 game bump up.

So, somewhere between 68 and 75 win. This team is done.




Some thoughts from Ronald Reagan's 1981 inaugural speech for Memorial Day 2018 - AEI



This is why we honor the men and women who paid the ultimate price for freedom, not just on Memorial Day, but every day. And it's also why we respect the flag and the national anthem. Thanks Ronnie. A great three minute explanation and a mini-history lesson.

from AEI.org
Some thoughts from Ronald Reagan's 1981 inaugural speech for Memorial Day 2018 - AEI:
Here’s a great quote from Reagan that opens the video above:
If we look to the answer as to why for so many years we achieved so much, prospered as no other people on Earth, it was because here in this land we unleashed the energy and individual genius of man to a greater extent than has ever been done before. Freedom and the dignity of the individual have been more available and assured here than in any other place on Earth. The price for this freedom at times has been high, but we have never been unwilling to pay that price.
And later in the speech, some thoughts on terrorism….
Above all, we must realize that no arsenal or no weapon in the arsenals of the world is so formidable as the will and moral courage of free men and women. It is a weapon our adversaries in today’s world do not have. It is a weapon that we as Americans do have. Let that be understood by those who practice terrorism and prey upon their neighbors.
'via Blog this'

Related image

The Power of Positive Leadership framework | Jon Gordon




from jongordon.com
http://jongordon.com/positivetip/documents/Power_Positive_Poster_Framework.pdf

9 Practices that Make
Great Leaders Great
Positive leadership is not Pollyanna leadership. Positive leadership is the way to lead if you want to build a great team and organization. It's the stuff that makes great leaders great. In this spirit here are 9 practices that make up the positive leadership framework that you can begin to implement today.
1. Positive Leaders Drive Positive Cultures - Leaders who drive the culture and create a culture that is strong on the inside will withstand the forces trying to sabotage it from the outside. Culture is not just one thing. It's everything.
2. Positive Leaders Create and Share a Positive Vision - Positive leadership is all about seeing and creating a brighter and better future. It's about inventing, innovating, creating, building, improving, and transforming every aspect of our lives and the world in which we live. A positive leader sees what's possible and then takes the next steps to rally and unite people to create it.
3. Positive Leaders Lead with Optimism, Positivity and Belief - Pessimists don't change the world. Naysayers talk about problems but they don't solve them. Throughout history we see that it's the optimists, the doers and the positive leaders who transform teams and change the world. Positive leaders don't lead in a sea of tranquil positivity but through the storms of negativity and adversity. That's why optimism and belief are so essential.
4. Positive Leaders Confront, Transform, and Remove Negativity - One of the biggest mistakes leaders make is that they ignore the negativity within their team and organization. They allow it to breed and grow and it eventually sabotages them. This chapter includes everything I have learned since writing The Energy Bus. A key piece of advice is "Don’t be negative about negativity." There's a better way to deal with it.
5. Positive Leaders Create United and Connected Teams - It's the leader's ability to unite and connect people that truly creates great teams and organizations. Positive leaders create unity which is the difference between a great team and an average or dysfunctional team. The more united and connected a team and organization is the more they are able to accomplish together.
6. Positive Leaders Build Great Relationships and Teams - When you focus on building relationships with your team, performance, morale, and engagement rises. It's about making time to communicate, encourage, connect, commit, serve and care about those you lead. It's probably the most important chapter in the book.
7. Positive Leaders Pursue Excellence - Some think that positive leaders are just about having fun and don't care about winning. This couldn't be further from the truth. Positive leaders are very competitive. They pursue excellence, build greatness and often try to accomplish the impossible. You don’t have to choose between positivity and winning. Positivity leads to winning.
8. Positive Leaders Lead with Purpose - There will be days and nights when you wonder why you chose a leadership position at all. That’s why you need a purpose to fuel your positivity. We don't get burned out because of what we do. We get burned out because we forget WHY we do it. Positive leaders are driven with a bigger purpose and they inspire others to live and work with purpose.
9. Positive Leaders have Grit - A leader will face countless challenges, failures and setbacks that will become roadblocks unless they find a way forward. Positive leaders have grit and find a way to navigate the roadblocks or run through them to move closer to their vision and goal.
- Jon
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'via Blog this'

Was Anthony Rizzo's slide at home dirty?


He's been down this road before with Padres catcher Austin Hedges. Maddon continues to defend him and denigrate the rule. Until one of his guys gets blasted. The fact that Rizzo apologized to the Pirates catcher before his next AB indicates he knew he was wrong.

 I watched the Pirates broadcast and then the Cubs and two different perceptions of reality and the ruling. MLB needs to get a handle on this if, as the Pirates broadcasters were discussing, there appears to be a lack of enforcement on the part of the umpires. As I've discussed before, this is the initial problem that precipitated both the Posey rule and the Utley rule. Lack of enforcement of existing rules on the books. 

So now it appears we will need the Rizzo corollary and the St. Joe Maddon addendum's to the Posey rule and then another set for the Utley rule when a Cubs player decides to go old-school at 2B.

Thanks Cubs!! Rizzo is a dirt bag for doing it, but Maddon is a bigger scuz bag for condoning it. Why don't we just changed the MLB rule book to "The World According to St. Joe"? 

Sunday, May 27, 2018

Stetson's Senger denies UNF in ASUN baseball final - Sports - The Florida Times-Union - Jacksonville, FL


Stetson's Senger denies UNF in ASUN baseball final - Sports - The Florida Times-Union - Jacksonville, FL



This was not the greatest way to end the tournament for UNF, but it was a pretty darned good tournament showing for them to just be in the finals. Battling from behind late against Lipscomb and getting some measure of revenge against cross-town rival JU, the pitching was just a bit worn down. 

JU will still get an NCAA tournament bid, they may have to travel a bit further now. Stetson was the class of the conference and it showed. Congratulations to them. 

from Jacksonville.com
https://www-jacksonville-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/www.jacksonville.com/sports/20180526/stetsons-senger-denies-unf-in-asun-baseball-final

Stetson's Senger denies UNF in ASUN baseball final - Sports - The Florida Times-Union - Jacksonville, FL















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Friday, May 25, 2018

JU Stays Unbeaten in ASUN Baseball Championship - Jacksonville University

JU Stays Unbeaten in ASUN Baseball Championship - Jacksonville University
JU Stays Unbeaten in ASUN Baseball Championship

Jacksonville University advances to face Stetson at the top of the winners bracket, while UNF falls to the loser's bracket to face Lipscomb, who dispatched NJIT.

Kennesaw State received a version of the home game with it's close 2-1 loss to Stetson. Kennesaw drew an early lead against Logan Gilbert, but could not hold it. So far all games, with the possible exception of Lipscomb over NJIT and UNF over Kennesaw State, have held to form, albeit with much nail-biting. 

JU and UNF may face-off again if form holds, this time with season-ending ramifications. JU has a better shot to win now that Gilbert has been cleared as a potential starter. JU-Stetson should be a good one.  

Team          RPI     Record vs. sub-10 RPI teams
Stetson         #7         16- 7 
JU                #19       11-10  
Kennesaw   #112       6-18 
UNF           #127        7-13 
NJIT           #148        4-6
Lipscomb   #171        8-15

from judolphins.com
http://www.judolphins.com/sports/bsb/2017-18/releases/2018052500p2eu

JU Stays Unbeaten in ASUN Baseball Championship

May 24, 2018

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A River City Rumble rubber match went Jacksonville University baseball's way, a 4-3 win that ended in dramatic fashion Thursday at Harmon Stadium to keep the Dolphins in the winner's bracket of the ASUN Baseball Championship.

Chris Gau hit a pinch-hit RBI single to give the Dolphins (39-17) the lead for good in the fifth, and a bizarre play in the ninth kept North Florida (26-27) from tying it.
UNF hit an infield single off starter Spencer Stockton (8-5) with one out in the ninth, and closer Chris Mauloni entered, surrendering a soft single to right before a pop up dropped fair down the left field line to score a run. Left fielder Cory Garrastazu had a hard time picking up, before throwing the ball into second. The throw sailed over Chris Lehane's head, and the runner at third broke home. Angel Camacho was there to back it up, and quickly rifled the ball to the plate. The runner tripped and fell five feet short of home plate, and after Franco Guardascione scooped the ball out of the dirt, he applied the tag for the second out of the ninth. Mauloni then struck out the final batter to earn his 20th save of the year.

"Unbelievable college baseball game tonight," said Head Coach Chris Hayes. "Both teams were extremely competitive, neither one willing to give an inch."

JU drew first blood for the second game in a row, when Ruben Someillan walked to lead off the first, advanced to second on Lehane's 19th sacrifice bunt of the year, third on a groundout and scored on Camacho's single to right.

UNF answered with two in the third to take the lead. Four hits, all singles, gave the Ospreys a brief lead, as JU tied it right back up a half inning later. Duncan Hunter reached on another leadoff walk, one of nine free passes issued by Osprey pitchers, and took third on a failed pickoff play that resulted in a two-base error. Someillan lofted a sacrifice fly into center to knot things back up until the fifth.

Scott Dubrule singled with one-out, his eleventh career multi-hit game vs. the Ospreys, and Sam Armstrong walked with two-outs before the Dolphins went to the bench and brought in Gau, who only had two at-bats in conference play this year prior to tonight. He sailed one to the opposite field just past the outstretched arm of the third baseman and Dubrule scored to make it 3-2.

"Coach Hayes is always telling us to be ready at any moment," said Gau. "I was just lucky enough to find enough barrel to get it past the third baseman."

Guardascione gave JU a big insurance run with a solo home run to left in the eighth.
Stockton worked into the ninth for the second time this season, retiring nine in a row and 16 of the last 17 he faced prior to the infield single that ended his night.

"Franco and I were on the same page, and stuck to the bread and butter," said Stockton.
"Spencer continued to get better and better as the game went on" said Hayes. "His location really sharpened."

"Didn't want to pull him in the ninth, but his pitch count got up there and it's nice to have Mauloni in the pen."

Mauloni's ninth was not perfect, but the strikeout after the wacky play for the second out moved him back into a tie for the national lead in saves. The freshman from Jacksonville also became only the 26th player in NCAA history to hit the 20 save mark in a season.
Jacksonville plays #1 seed Stetson in the winner's bracket game tomorrow at 11 a.m. The game can be followed on ESPN+, Mixlr and 1010XL, joining in progress at noon.




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Thursday, May 24, 2018

North Florida Downs Owls In ASUN Tournament Opener

Unfospreys.com Mobile - North Florida Downs Owls In ASUN Tournament Opener
Frank

This is a good start for the Ospreys. Their ace goes out and does his job, but the task gets tougher as they advance. In a #3 vs. #4 seed match-up, neither team can afford to go down the rotation as #1 seed Stetson was able to do, pitching their #3 starter vs. #6 seed NJIT. 

The clear tournament favorites are Stetson and Jacksonville. After that sits UNF and Kennesaw State, with Lipscomb and NJIT in the "two and barbecue" category. 

All bets will be off in the backyard rivalry match-up between UNF and JU. Prior stats don't mean anything. But that's true of tournaments in general, mitigated slightly by the double-elimination format. 

Deep pitching will rule the day and it would seem that Stetson has that over the others. 

from unfospreys.com
http://unfospreys.com/news/2018/5/23/baseball-ospreys-roll-in-first-round-of-asun-tournament.aspx

North Florida Downs Owls In ASUN Tournament Opener

May. 23, 2018 Baseball
Box Score

Final Score: North Florida 7, Kennesaw State 1
Location: Jacksonville, Fla. (Harmon Stadium)
Records: North Florida (26-26) | Kennesaw State (25-29)
WP: Frank German (8-3)  | LP: AJ Moore (5-3)

Jacksonville, Fla. – The North Florida Baseball team used a dominant start from junior Frank German and a solid day at the plate to pick up a 7-1 victory over Kennesaw State in the opening round of the ASUN Tournament at Harmon Stadium.

LEADING OFF
- Frank German picked up his second complete game of the season as he went the distance allowing just one earned run while tying his career-high with 10 strikeouts in the victory. 
- He is the first Osprey since 2004 to hit the 100 strikeout plateau. Travis Stanton had 116 strikeouts during the 2004 campaign.
- Blake Voyles paced the Osprey offense with his 17th multi-hit game of the season and his sixth three-hit game of the year. 
- Chris Berry, Dalton Board and Chris Matthias each chipped in with two hits apiece for North Florida.
- Mac Wilson extended his reached base streak to a team-high 13 games and Voyles has matched his season-high with 11 in a row.
- The Ospreys scored five times in the seventh for their 10th game with a five run inning this season. Its the Ospreys seventh win when scoring 5+ in an inning this season.
- It was the Ospreys first opening round win in the ASUN Tournament since 2016 when UNF took down FGCU 12-4. 


HOW IT HAPPENED
- UNF's offense got going in the fourth when Jay Prather lined a single thru the infield which allowed Voyles to come into score and give the Ospreys the 1-0 lead.
- In the seventh, Berry lined a single up the middle to plate Rey Gonzalez followed quickly by a Board RBI single to score Abraham Sequera and make it 3-0.
- Voyles picked up a two-run single to make it 5-0 which was followed on the next pitch by Wilson lining another single up the middle to score Voyles and cap off the 5-run frame. 
- Berry added one more RBI single in the eighth to make it 7-0.
- KSU scored its lone run in the ninth on a sac fly to make it a 7-1 final. 

WHAT'S NEXT
The Ospreys move on in the winners bracket on Thursday against their cross-town rival No. 2 Jacksonville at 7 p.m. at Harmon Stadium.
  • If North Florida takes down Jacksonville on Thursday, the Ospreys advance to Friday morning's semifinal with an 11 a.m. first pitch against either No.1 Stetson or No. 3 Kennesaw State. 
  • If the Ospreys fall to the Dolphins, UNF faces the winner of No. 5 Lipscomb vs No. 6 NJIT in a win or go home matchup at 3 p.m. on Friday afternoon. 

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wOBA | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

wOBA flash
Everything you wanted to know about wOBA (Weighted On Base Average) but were afraid to ask.

from fangraphs.com 

wOBA

Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is one of the most important and popular catch-all offensive statistics. It was created by Tom Tango (and notably used in "The Book") to measure a hitter's overall offensive value, based on the relative values of each distinct offensive event.

wOBA is based on a simple concept: Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes that they are. On-base percentage does too, but does one better by including other ways of reaching base such as walking or being hit by a pitch. Slugging percentage weights hits, but not accurately (Is a double worth twice as much as a single? In short, no) and again ignores other ways of reaching base. On-base plus slugging (OPS) does attempt to combine the different aspects of hitting into one metric, but it assumes that one percentage point of SLG is the same as that of OBP. In reality, a handy estimate is that OBP is around twice as valuable than SLG (the exact ratio is x1.8). In short, OPS is asking the right question, but we can arrive at a more accurate number quite easily.
Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.

Calculation:
The wOBA formula for the 2013 season was:
wOBA = (0.690×uBB + 0.722×HBP + 0.888×1B + 1.271×2B + 1.616×3B +
2.101×HR) / (AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP)

These weights change on a yearly basis, so you can find the specific wOBA weights for every year from 1871 to the present here.

To calculate wOBA, find the weights for the year you are interested in and multiply each weight by the player's corresponding statistics. For example, in 2013 Mike Trout had 100 unintentional walks, 9 HBP, 115 singles, 39 doubles, 9 triples, and 27 home runs. If you multiple each by it's corresponding weight and then divide that number by the sum of his at bats, walks (excluding IBB), hit by pitches, and sacrifice flies, you get .423, or his wOBA for the season.

Why wOBA:

One of the most common questions people ask when presented with a new statistic like wOBA is why they should use it when the basic triple slash line statistics (average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage) work just fine or work even better when using them to form OPS?

Simply put, OPS and wOBA will lead you to very similar conclusions in most situations, but if you care about determining how well a player contributes to run scoring, wOBA is a more accurate representation of that contribution. OPS undervalues getting on base relative to hitting for extra bases and does not properly weigh each type of extra base hit.

Additionally, individuals do not often calculate statistics by hand and will use a spreadsheet if they like doing it themselves or will make use of a website such as FanGraphs to provide that information. OBP or SLG might be easier to calculate with pencil and paper, but wOBA is extremely easy to find and use on our site, meaning any computational costs of moving to wOBA are minuscule.

How to Use wOBA:

One of the beauties of wOBA is that it is extremely easy to use once you learn the basics. League average wOBA is always scaled to league average OBP, so if you know what a good OBP is, you know what a good wOBA is. Below are specific averages for the current season, but typically an average hitter will finish the season with a wOBA of around .320.

wOBA is also quite easy to convert to Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA), or the non-park adjusted version of Batting Runs. In other words, you can convert wOBA to a cumulative run value above average quickly. Simply take the player's wOBA and subtract out the league average wOBA, then divide by the wOBA scale and multiple that by the number of plate appearances. Both league wOBA and the wOBA scale can be found here.

((wOBA-League wOBA)/wOBA Scale)*PA = wRAA

For example, Mike Trout had a .423 wOBA in 716 PA in 2013 and the league wOBA was .314 and the wOBA scale was 1.277.

((.423-.314)/1.277)*716 = 61.1 wRAA

In other words, before making park and league adjustments, Mike Trout's was worth about 61 more runs than the average offensive player. You can't make such an easy conversion using OPS.

A good rule of thumb is that 20 points of wOBA is worth about 10 runs above average per 600 PA. This is not a precise measurement and specific calculations are always better, but if you're looking for an approximate rule of thumb, this may be useful.

Context:

Please note that the following chart is meant as an estimate, and that league-average wOBA varies on a year-by-year basis. It is set to the same scale as OBP, so league-average wOBA in a given year should be very close to the league-average OBP. To see the league-average wOBA for every year from 1901 to the present, check the FanGraphs leaderboards.
wOBA Rules of Thumb
Rating wOBA
Excellent .400
Great .370
Above Average .340
Average .320
Below Average .310
Poor .300
Awful .290
Things to Remember:
● This stat accounts for the following aspects of hitting: unintentional walks, hit-by-pitches, singles, doubles, triples, home runs. Stolen-bases and caught stealing numbers used to be included as well on FanGraphs, but they are now instead accounted for with the stats UBR and wSB. This way, wOBA only accounts for a player's production at the plate.
● Exactly how much to weigh each of the components of wOBA was determined using linear weights.
● wOBA can be converted into offensive runs above average easily. These are called Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA). The formula to convert wOBA into wRAA is listed below:
wRAA = ((wOBA – league wOBA) / wOBA scale) × PA
(league-average wOBA can be found here; wOBA scale values can be found here)
● This stat is context-neutral, meaning it does not take into account if there were runners on base for a player's hit or if it was a close game at the time.
● wOBA on FanGraphs is not adjusted for park effects, meaning that batters that play in hitter-friendly parks will have slightly inflated wOBAs.


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