From the Baseball Prospectus Website, an interesting display of the odds of each MLB team making the playoffs from August 15th to the end of the season.
Unfortunately, most teams are clearly out of it. Only 6 AL teams have better than a 3% chance of making the playoffs. In the NL, 10 teams are left with hope. So in total, 16 of 30 teams are still alive.
We are at approximately the comparable equivalent of week twelve in the NFL season. In most seasons, by week twelve, virtually no teams have been eliminated. So much for competitive balance.
I still think this is the #1 issue for both the owners and the players to solve before fans in the "no-chance" league get tired of watching the "modern day St. Louis Browns" and really do have to fold the tent due to lack of interest.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
Average wins by position in AL East: 98.6 90.9 82.7 76.7 61.8
AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Red Sox 72 47 .619 98.4 63.6 91.68000 7.59686 99.27686
Yankees 67 52 .579 90.9 71.1 8.24590 60.59689 68.84280
Blue Jays 60 58 .539 82.2 79.8 .07305 2.25895 2.33200
Orioles 55 63 .530 77.3 84.7 .00105 .06524 .06629
Devil Rays 45 74 .439 61.8 100.2 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.6 86.5 80.9 74.3 69.3
AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Tigers 66 53 .527 88.9 73.1 56.24541 4.29476 60.54016
Indians 65 54 .518 87.8 74.2 41.18094 5.75573 46.93667
Twins 59 60 .503 81.0 81.0 2.55227 .40866 2.96093
White Sox 54 64 .436 73.4 88.6 .01961 .00176 .02137
Royals 52 66 .420 70.4 91.6 .00177 .00011 .00187
Average wins by position in AL west: 93.1 87.4 80.3 71.9
AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Angels 69 48 .532 92.4 69.6 78.60670 5.63387 84.24057
Mariners 66 51 .493 87.9 74.1 20.86130 13.01564 33.87694
Athletics 58 62 .529 80.3 81.7 .53115 .37144 .90259
Rangers 52 66 .458 72.1 89.9 .00085 .00010 .00095
Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 92.5 88.1 84.4 76.8 71.3
NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Mets 66 52 .568 91.6 70.4 70.72263 16.16317 86.88580
Phillies 63 55 .525 86.2 75.8 12.55288 22.10151 34.65439
Braves 63 56 .548 87.1 74.9 16.67778 27.65551 44.33329
Marlins 56 63 .478 76.4 85.6 .04530 .13982 .18512
Nationals 54 65 .434 71.9 90.1 .00140 .00204 .00344
Average wins by position in NL Central: 86.7 83.0 78.6 74.2 70.9 66.9
NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Brewers 62 57 .502 84.8 77.2 52.19562 1.62170 53.81733
Cubs 60 58 .511 84.1 77.9 41.36327 1.81828 43.18155
Cardinals 56 60 .466 78.6 83.4 6.02625 .21537 6.24162
Astros 54 65 .433 73.3 88.7 .28139 .00214 .28353
Reds 51 67 .456 71.5 90.5 .12698 .00020 .12718
Pirates 49 68 .417 68.1 93.9 .00649 .00003 .00653
Average wins by position in NL West: 89.7 86.6 84.0 80.7 70.6
NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Diamondbacks 67 53 .470 86.6 75.4 32.97483 10.17778 43.15261
Padres 64 54 .526 87.3 74.7 42.99795 9.54745 52.54540
Rockies 61 57 .526 84.5 77.5 16.47985 6.75708 23.23693
Dodgers 60 59 .533 82.7 79.3 7.54648 3.79743 11.34391
Giants 50 69 .479 70.6 91.4 .00089 .00049 .00138
Average wins by NL Wild Card: 88.8
© 2007 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures
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