MEASURING TRUE GRIT

It's a rare event when you read an article and immediately think of the classic scene from "When Harry Met Sally" but this is one of them (at least I hope it is).

By the way, for all you guys out there, WHMS is a truly underrated date flick. Strictly from a utilitarian perspective, if after watching this movie with your "date" you ain't getting "it" shortly thereafter -- and by shortly I mean in as short a time after the credits roll as humanly possible so as not to violate any federal, state or local laws -- then you ain't getting "it" (EVER). So at least you learn something.

P.S. - don't get into the "can guys and girls be just friends debate", it's a losing proposition.

Anyway, on to the article:
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http://www.flotsam-media.com/2007/12/flotsam-data-special-tangiblizing.html

Friday, December 21, 2007

A Flotsam data special: Tangiblizing the intangible

Chuck Dickens
Idiot Savant

After Tim McCarver’s month-long David Eckstein sploogefest that was October 2006, a serious investigation into 'grit' was long overdue. Despite the penchant of sportswriters and broadcasters to throw the term around willy-nilly, I was hard-pressed to locate a firm definition of grit in the baseball sense. Using lots of laptop science stuff, I think I’ve improved the definition, which isn’t really saying much, since there wasn’t one to begin with.

First, some definitions to help us focus in on what exactly this 'grit' stuff is.

Gritty
1. Containing, covered with, or resembling grit.
2. Showing resolution and fortitude; plucky: Biggio’s gritty 12-pitch at-bat ultimately resulted in a routine 6-3 groundout.

In keeping with those definitions I’m proposing a new composite statistic: General Requirements of Intangible Talent (GRIT). GRIT incorporates four basic components: dirt, determination, talent, and opportunity.

DATA
I used a modified version of the Sean Lahman dataset that includes player statistics from 1871-2006. My dataset includes player-seasons starting in 1955, the first year for which statistical data for intentional walks and GIDP was available. To chop the dataset down to a manageable size, I limited the number of eligible players to those who have at least 100 plate appearances and 81 games played. This removes pitchers from consideration, but also ensures that an adequate indication of a player’s abilities during each season is evident. Statistics for 2007 were compiled from ESPN.

The resulting dataset includes 13,249 player-seasons with 2,385 unique players represented.

HYPOTHESIS
I hold that gritty players are those who sincerely want to win or succeed at baseball (determination), but due to a lack of natural skill (talent), are forced to do so through the least efficient means possible, resulting in an excessive amount of dirt on their uniform.

DIRT
The most important factor in determining a player's GRIT is his uniform. A player who is "containing, covered with, or resembling grit" will show visible signs of his grittiness on his uniform. Dirty uniforms are good; bloody uniforms are better. A true team player, the gritty player is prepared to sacrifice his body at all costs. This is one of the few ways gritty players are efficient, since they probably aren’t as well compensated as their genuinely talented teammates.

The Dirt Formula

HBP: A hit batter produce minimal gains (one base) with relatively high costs in terms of potential bodily injury. The official colors of gritty players may well be black and blue. And red. And maybe some brown with a little purple and some yellow around the edges, depending on the severity of the bruising.

IBB: Next to home runs, intentional walks are probably the most anti-gritty statistic. Intentional walks are indicative that a player has so much talent that the pitcher would rather give him first base than risk an extra-base hit. Gritty players have to earn every base through hard-knocks, moxie, and a heaping helping of some good ol’ fashioned hustle.

CS/SB stuff (SBINEFF): This is a statistic I call Stolen Base Inefficiency (SBINEFF). This looks for players who like to attempt lots of steals but are largely unsuccessful. Stealing bases produces minimal gains (one base) but comes with greater potential costs by raising the likelihood of being thrown out. Base-stealers (successful or not) also have dirty uniforms from sliding.

DETERMINATION
Gritty players want to succeed. They just happen to not have the talent to actually do so. This results in inefficient baseball plays. For example, Jerry Hairston is gritty. He slides head-first into first base. A true sign of someone gritty enough to want to get to first base, but shitty enough to actually get there efficiently.

The Determination Formula

(Outs – SO): As short in stature as they are on talent, gritty players are determined to put the ball in play at all costs. Additionally, the ball looks gigantic to their tiny, elfin eyes and thus they’re less prone to striking out.

(BB+SH+SF): With their microscopic strike zones, gritty players generate walks (the unintentional ones) at a superhuman rate. Sacrificing oneself is an inefficient (read: gritty) method of moving runners along.

GIDP: Double plays are produced by well-struck balls that are able to cut through the infield grass. Aside from a bottle of hard liquor (eh, Mr. Furcal?) gritty players rarely hit anything well.

Talent – It is my contention that "grittiness" is a subset of talent that cannot translate well statistically. Two players may very well have the same raw amount of grit, but one player may have more tangible talent, making him appear less gritty because the grit is too diluted. Gritty players are those who have the largest concentration of grit. As such, too find the grittiest players, we should look for players who have as little tangible talent as possible.

The Talent Formula

XBH: Extra base hits are über-efficient ways of getting multiple bases.

RBI: Gritty players move runners over, but aren’t talented enough to drive them in.

TB: Total bases is an additional means of counting the overall ability of a player.

(OMS*1000): OMS (OBP minus SLG) is a proprietary statistic I developed for use in GRIT. It rewards players who reach base, but deprecates players who have the talent to get extra bases.

OPPORTUNITY
In order for a player to become gritty, they first need to be on the field. In the words of Ted Williams, "Nobody ever became a .400 hitter without taking the bat off their shoulder." To apply the quote more appropriately here, one might attribute it to Willams' quasi-gritty teammate, Milt Bolling, and change it to read "Nobody ever became a .250 hitter by getting splinters in their ass.” We simply use plate appearances as a representation of opportunity.

After calculating the four GRIT component values for each player-season, the resulting values are then plugged in to this equation:

(Dirt + Determination – Talent) / Opportunity

(read the entire article to see the results. The formula does seem to work to identify true grit-PURE GENIUS)