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Monday, April 28, 2008

NFL DRAFT SECOND DAY REVIEW - AFC



Now time for the AFC side to get their grades. FWIW.

Remember, we're just looking at how teams were able to fill identifiable needs in this draft. And how they have been able to execute the plan in the last few years.
Which is the purpose of the draft. Of course, if your favorite team gets a bead grade or was not able to fill an obvious roster need they can troll the free-agent pool (Shaun Alexander, Chris Henry, Jeff George) or wait until guys get cut from rosters prior to camp. The contenders (Patriots for one) are usually better able to attract premium veterans with a year or two left in the tank who may feel the need for a change of scenery (can you say Jason Taylor).

AFC EAST:

NE Patriots:
Hit Rate-46% (Rank #31)
Performance-5 (Rank #30)
Composite-2.31 (Rank #30)
Top Three Needs-ILB-CB-TE
Needs Filled-ILB-CB-OLB
Grade-B-

Comments: Drafted arguably the best ILB Jerod Mayo with the premium pick they retained. CB Terrance Wheatley may have been a bit of a reach pick. He very likey would have been available later. Shawn Crable OLB 6-5,245 4.61 is big and rangy.

Buffalo:
Hit Rate-59% (Rank #18)
Performance-70 (Rank #8)
Composite-41.36 (Rank #8)
Top Three Needs-WR-CB-TE
Needs Filled-CB-WR-DE
Grade-B

Comments: CB Leodis McKelvin was one of the best CB's avaialable this year. WR James Hardy 6-6,217 4.45 could be a Plax type target. Went for DE Chris Ellis-a decent pass rusher-rather than a TE next, settling for TE Derek Fine later. The rest of their draft was backups/special team types.

NY Jets:
Hit Rate-64% (Rank #14)
Performance-65 (Rank #9)
Composite-41.36 (Rank #9)
Top Three Needs-WR-CB-QB
Needs Filled-OLB-TE-CB
Grade-C

Comments: The Jets either identified their needs differently then the consensus or went with the "draft the best available player" philosophy. Note that this may explain why the Jets are at the top of the draft routinely. I'm not saying anything, I'm just saying. OLB Vernon Gholston is a beast. TE Dustin Keller was not a real need position, he'll have to hit big as a pass-catcher, match-up problem type player. Cb Dwight Lowery was a ??? in his senior year. Went for QB Erik Ainge later as well as Kansas WR Marcus Henry, who could contribute.


Miami:
Hit Rate-68%(Rank #8)
Performance-95(Rank #5)
Composite-64.66 (Rank #6)
Top Three Needs-OL-QB-TE
Needs Filled-OL-QB-DE
Grade-B+

Comments: OT Jake Long will be a fixture for ten years at left tackle. DE Phillip Merling from Clemson give them a pass rusher to replace Jason Taylor, if need be. QB Chad Henne provides insurance/push for John Beck at the QB position. DE Kendall Langford 6-6,287 4.95 from Hampton is an interesting pick. If he hits big, this is an A draft.

AFC NORTH:

Baltimore:
Hit Rate-54% (Rank # 27)
Performance-60 (Rank # 13)
Composite-32.50 (Rank # 15)
Top Three Needs-QB-OT-RB
Needs Filled-QB-RB-LB
Grade-B-

Comments: Had to scramble a little for Q Joe Flacco after the Falcons took Matt Ryan off the board early. Chris Williams will be the Bears LT quickly. Nice deal with the Jags for extra picks. Ray Rice RB from Rutgers is nice second pick. He just produces. Tavares Gooden LB from Miami will learn from one the all-time best in Ray Lewis. S Tom Zibikowski could be a nice 3rd round value as well.

Pittsburgh:
Hit Rate-56% (Rank # 24)
Performance-0 (Rank # 31)
Composite-0.00 (Rank # 31)
Top Three Needs-OT-OG-DL
Needs Filled-RB-WR-QB
Grade-B+

Comments: Another team that went away from the consensus needs picks. RB Rashard Mendenhall gives them a great combo backfield with Willie Parker. Limas Sweed WR Texas is a big target 6-4,215 4.48. Dennis Dixon QB from Oregon was a surprise pick, but the Steelers have had great success with college QB's turned WR. Bruce Davis OLB from UCLA was a solid later pick.


Cleveland:
Hit Rate-68% (Rank # 9)
Performance-45 (Rank # 21)
Composite-30.60 (Rank # 18)
Top Three Needs-OLB-ILB-DB
Needs Filled-LB-TE-WR
Grade-D

Comments: Didn't pick until the fourth round and UNLV LB Beau Bell and Missouri TE Martin Rucker were as good as could be expected given that. This years 1st rounder was used to acquire Brady Quinn.

Cincinnati:
Hit Rate-78% (Rank # 4)
Performance-105 (Rank # 1)
Composite-82.17 (Rank # 1)
Top Three Needs-DL-OL-S
Needs Filled-OLB-WR-WR
Grade-C-

Comments: USC LB Keith Rivers was the best OLB out there. WR's Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell help prepare for life after Chad. Auburn DL Pat Sims is a run-stuffer in the middle. OT Anthony Collins from Kansas was a good 4th round pick, but he may be a year or two away. Appy State's S Corey Lynch was a late attempt to address the S positon.

AFC SOUTH:

Indianapolis:
Hit Rate-77% (Rank #5)
Performance-95 (Rank #4)
Composite-73.08 (Rank #4)
Top Three Needs-DE-RB-OG
Needs Filled-C-OL-ILB
Grade-B-

Comments: Mike Pollak C was the tops at his position. He may move to guard. Steven Justice C may have been the next best and he may stay at C. Phiilp Wheeler ILB from Georgia Tech will help provide depth at LB. Mike Hart RB from Michigan was a nice late value pick. His 4.7 forty hurt his status.

Jacksonville:
Hit Rate-60% (Rank #16)
Performance-55 (Rank #15)
Composite-33.00 (Rank #14)
Top Three Needs-DT-DE-WR
Needs Filled-DE-OLB-CB
Grade-C-

Comments: DE Derrick Harvey from Florida was a reach pick at the eight spot. Quentin Groves LB/DE was highly regarded as a OLB (2nd best). After that, slim pickings.

Tennessee:
Hit Rate-58% (Rank #21)
Performance-35 (Rank #23)
Composite-20.32 (Rank #23)
Top Three Needs-WR-DE-RB
Needs Filled-RB-WR-DT
Grade-C

Comments: RB Chris Johnson was a bit of a surprise. 4.24 speed in the forty did not hurt him. Jason Jones is a combo DE/DT at 6-5,273 4.76 speed. WR Lavelle Hawkins seemed like a bit of a reach.

Houston:
Hit Rate-65% (Rank #12)
Performance-80 (Rank #7)
Composite-52.00 (Rank #7)
Top Three Needs-CB-RB-OT
Needs Filed-OT-CB-RB
Grade-C

Comments: They saw something in OT Duane Brown 6-4,315 5.07 that others did not. Antwan Molden CB 6-1,198 and has 4.38 speed, nice pick. RB Steve Slaton will be a good change of pace, third down back. Picked up OLB Xavier Adibi late, good value.

AFC WEST

Denver:
Hit Rate-65% (Rank #13)
Performance-40 (Rank #22)
Composite-25.88 (Rank #22)
Top Three Needs-DT-S-LB
Needs Filled-OT-WR-C
Grade-C

Comments: OT Ryan Clady was the best available after Jake Long. Eddie Royal WR has 4.39 speed. Kory Lichtensteiger C will help as well. I like the pick of Josh Barrett S Ariz. State later and FB Peyton Hills from Arkansas.

San Diego:
Hit Rate-67% (Rank #11)
Performance-30 (Rank #24)
Composite-20.00 (Rank #24)
Top Three Needs-RB-OT-DT
Needs Filled-CB-FB-RB
Grade-C

Comments: Antoine Cason CB is a good pick. Jacob Hester RB was a question mark, he's a FB from LSU. RB Marcus Thomas was a decent late pick, but they have LT. They could have gone for more OL help, instead of RB.

Oakland:
Hit Rate-60% (Rank #17)
Performance-50 (Rank #18)
Composite-30.00 (Rank #20)
Top Three Needs-OT-DT-WR
Needs Filled-RB-CB-WR
Grade-B

Comments: Darren McFadden RB makes an immediate impact on this offense and helps JaMarcus Russel transition to starter. CB Tyron Branch was a bit of a reach. WR Arman Shileds was even more so. McFadden alone could make this a decent draft.

Kansas City:
Hit Rate-70% (Rank #6)
Performance-45 (Rank #20)
Composite-31.30 (Rank #17)
Top Three Needs-OL-CB-WR
Needs Filled-DT-OL-CB
Grade-A+

Comments: DT Glenn Dorsey will be a difference maker. G Brandon Albert may have been the best G prospect on the board. CB Brandon Flowers ran a bad forty at the combine or he would have been gone earlier. TE Brad Cottam 6-88,270 4.63 from Tennessee helps the running game. DaJuan Morgan was one of the top two FS available. RB Jamal Charles may have been one of the top 5 RB's. Six players who could contribute immediately, this could easily be the best and deepest draft haul of the bunch.

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