Well, the second day of the draft is over and time for the much hated reviews/report card phase of the draft that so many fans and media types are now saying is unimportant and irrelevant. It's true that you can't gauge the results of the players themselves for another three years or so, but you can evaluate the teams based on their needs going into the draft and their ability to fill those holes based on the talent available.
We went a little bit further. Based on data from the USA today NFL Draft Preview edition, we evaluated teams based on the number of picks they had available over the last three year. USA Today totaled how many of these picks are team starters, team backups, playing on other teams or were outright busts (no longer playing).
From this data we come up with a "Hit Rate" or how many of the teams picks over the last three years are still productive to the team. Regardless of the organizations tendency to build through the draft, free agency or some combination thereof, when they send the card to Roger Goodell or Gene Washington, they have every intention of the player selected becoming a productive member of the team and not cannon fodder.
Hit Ranges varied from 84% for the Giants and 79% for the Falcons to a low of 43% for the Lions (no surprise) and 46% for the Patriots (a big surprise).
We go further and assign 10 points to every starter, 5 point to every reserve and then we subtract 5 point for players on other teams (you draft players to produce for your team, not other teams, HELLO!!) and subtract an additional 10 points for draft picks no longer in the league after only three years. From this number we come up with a productivity rating.
In this evaluation, teams ranged from 105 points for the Bengals??? leading the pack with the Giants second with 95 points to a low value of zero points for the Redskins (who clearly don't value the draft to rebuild) and a surprising zero for the Steelers.
Then we combined the two scores to come up with a composite of the two scores to come up with the Bengals surprisingly lead the NFL and the G-men #2. The Steelers and Redskins brought up the rear with a zero score.
Then we looked at the top three team needs for this years draft and evaluated how effectively the team filled those needs and Graded the results.
NFCEAST:
NY Giants:
Hit Rate-84% (Rank #1)
Performance-95 (Rank #2)
Composite-80.00 (Rank #2)
Top Three Needs-FS-LB-WR
Needs Filled-FS-CB-WR
Grade-B
Comments: Kenny Phillips filled the most obvious need at FS. Terrell Thomas a bit of a surprise at CB in the second, but he's physical. Mario Manningham WR will be the pivot point for the direction of this draft. The high marijuana/low Wonderlic score is so anti-Giants approach, he has to produce. Jonathan Goff ILB in the 5th is a good value pick and fills a need. BONUS points. Andre Woodson is a project, but has to produce early in picking up clipboard holding at the NFL level.
Dallas:
Hit Rate-79% (Rank # 3)
Performance-90 (Rank #6)
Composite-71.25 (Rank #4)
Top Three Needs-WR-CB-RB
Needs Filled-RB-CB-TE
Grade-A
Comments: Felix Jones RB improves the running game and makes up for the loss of Julius Jones. Michael Jenkins will make an impact a CB. TE Marcellius Bennet was a huge value pick in the 3rd. Tashard Choice RB was a surprise pick rather than a WR.
Philadelphia:
Hit Rate-67% (Rank #10)
Performance-60 (Rank #10)
Composite-40.00 (Rank #10)
Top Three Needs-CB-OT-S
Needs Filled-DT-DE-OT
Grade-C
Comments: Trevor Laws DT was a god pick, filled a need. DeSean Jackson was a good value pick at the spot, could impact the return game. Bryan Smith is a tweener DE/LB and a bit of a reach. Mike McGlynn OT fills a need, decent value pick.
Washington:
Hit Rate-47%(Rank #30)
Performance-0 (Rank #32)
Composite-0.00 (Rank #32)
Top Three Needs-DL-LB-WR
Needs Filled-WR-TE-OL
Grade-B
Comments: Traded out of the first round, typical. Still received good value with WR's Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly and TE Fred Davis. Chad Rinehart can play T or G.
NFC NORTH:
Chicago:
Hit Rate-59% (Rank # 19)
Performance-55 (Rank # 16)
Composite-32.50 (Rank # 16)
Top Three Needs-OL-WR-RB
Needs Filled-OT-RB-WR
Grade-B
Comments: Chris Williams will be the Bears LT quickly. Matt Forte RB will push Cedric Benson. WR Earl Bennett will be a third WR type. LSU S Craig Steltz was a good late round pick.
Minnesota:
Hit Rate-57% (Rank # 22)
Performance-50 (Rank # 19)
Composite-28.57 (Rank # 21)
Top Three Needs-DE-QB-S
Needs Filled-S-QB-DT
Grade-C+
Comments: Round 2 pick S Tyrell Johnson is a good value, good need pick. John David Booty QB gives immediate depth and competition. Letroy Guion DT is a reach. John Sullivan C Notre Dame was good late pick. This draft will be graded by how much Jared Allen gives them.
Green Bay:
Hit Rate-53% (Rank #28)
Performance-20 (Rank #26)
Composite-10.59 (Rank #26)
Top Three Needs-OLB-CB-TE
Needs Filled-QB-WR-CB
Grade-C+
Comments: Brian Brohm provides depth and competition at QB. WR Jordy Nelson seems like a reach, but could be an interesting fit here. Cb Patrick Lee is a good pick as well. TE was filed later with Jermichael Finley from Texas.
Detroit:
Hit Rate-43% (Rank # 32)
Performance-20 (Rank #28)
Composite-8.57 (Rank #28)
Top Three Needs-OT-DE-MLB (and GM)
Needs Filled-OT-RB-MLB
Grade-C-
Comments: Gosder Cherilus OT from Boston College was a reach. Jordan Dizon was an OLB who they may slot as a MLB, he would have been available later. Jerome Felton RB was another pick deep on most boards, high on Detroit's. Cliff Avil OLB was a good late pick. Lions make the crowd happy by drafting feel good story S Caleb Campbell from Army.
NFC SOUTH:
Tampa Bay:
Hit Rate-59% (Rank # 20)
Performance-60 (Rank #11)
Composite-35.29 (Rank #12)
Top Three Needs-WR-CB-DE
Needs Filled-CB-WR-OL
Grade-B
Comments: CB Aqib Talib is a good value and need pick. WR Dexter Jackson may contribute in the return game first, while backing up Joey Galloway. Jeremy Zutah from Rutgers is versatile and may have been the best of the lineman leftover at the time. Josh Johnson Qb is an interesting project for Gruden to toy with.
New Orleans:
Hit Rate-55% (Rank # 26)
Performance-5 (Rank #29)
Composite-2.73 (Rank # 29)
Top Three Needs-LB-TE-CB
Needs Filled-DT-CB-OT
Grade-C
Comments: DT Sedrick Ellis is a future star. CB Tracy Porter was a reach. D Demario Pressley is a reach,an underachiever. OT Carl Nicks from Nebraska was a good late value pick.
Carolina:
Hit Rate-62% (Rank #15)
Performance-20 (Rank #25)
Composite-12.31 (Rank #24)
Top Three Needs-OT-RB-DT
Needs Filled-OT-RB-ILB
Grade-B-
Comments: OT Jeff Otah and RB Jonathan Stewart instantly revitalize the offense. ILB Dan Connor is a great value pick for them. CB Charles Godfrey was a find as well. There first four picks were pretty good, excellent if Connor is a good as his early rankings.
Atlanta:
Hit Rate-79% (Rank #2)
Performance-95 (Rank #3)
Composite-75.21 (Rank #3)
Top Three Needs-QB-DT-OT
Needs Filed-QB-OT-LB
Grade-B
Comments: Matt Ryan QB has to come up big for them and early, fans may have preferred Glenn Dorsey. OT Sam Baker from USC seemed like a reach pick and has injury concerns . LB Curtis Lofton was a nice pickup later.
NFC WEST
Seattle:
Hit Rate-70% (Rank #7)
Performance-55 (Rank #14)
Composite-38.26 (Rank #11)
Top Three Needs-TE-K-DL
Needs Filled-DE-TE-FB
Grade-B+
Comments: DE Lawrence Jackson was a decent pick. John Carlson TE Notre Dame should fill a need, but was a reach pick. DT Red Bryant was a good pick. FB Owen Schmitt was a great late pick and will be a fan favorite. They get a K late with Brandon Coutu and a long snapper.
San Francisco:
Hit Rate-55% (Rank #25)
Performance-55 (Rank #17)
Composite-30.34 (Rank #19)
Top Three Needs-OL-DL-WR
Needs Filled-DT-OG-S
Grade-C+
Comments: Kentwan Blamer DT helps the D-line. Chilo Rachal OG-OT better be good, because he wasn't highly rated. Reggie Smith is a CB who may be tried at S. Cody Wallace C is a good pick late. Didn't adequately address the WR need.
St. Louis:
Hit Rate-52% (Rank #29)
Performance-20 (Rank #27)
Composite-10.24 (Rank #27)
Top Three Needs-DE-WR-OT
Needs Filled-DE-WR-OL
Grade-C
Comments: DE Chris Long was a no-brainer. Donnie Avery WR was a big-time reach, he better hit big. John Greco OT from Toledo was the best left, OT's went early and often. CB Justin King from Penn State is a bit of an enigma, lots of potential, little productivity. After Chris Long, a bit of a yawner.
Arizona:
Hit Rate-56% (Rank #23)
Performance-60 (Rank #12)
Composite-3360 (Rank #13)
Top Three Needs-CB-RB-DE
Needs Filled-CB-DE-WR
Grade-B-
Comments: CB Dominique Rodger-Cromartie is a solid pick. DE Calais Campbell from Miami might make or break this draft. If he hits big, it's a really good draft. WR Early Doucet was a good 3rd rounder. After that, a bit ordinary.
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