I'm reminded of the following philosophical question lately whenever I see the Tampa Bay Rays win another ball game and continue their stay at the top of the Eastern Division of the American League.
"If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?" is a philosophical riddle that raises questions regarding observation and knowledge of reality. Can something exist without being perceived? - e.g."Sound is only sound if a person hears it"
The Rays may be for real, but the larger question for Rays fans is going to be "Is the Tampa Bay baseball market for real?"
It seems as if the team, under new management, has made all the right moves to provide a winning product at an affordable price for the fans in the area. And yet the recent attendance figures have been nothing short of abysmal. New ownership has put up their own money for stadium renovations to spruce up a ballpark that already looks antiquated when compared to the many new baseball palaces that have come on-line recently.
O.K., LET'S PUT SOME LIPSTICK ON THIS PIG!!!
FROM ST. PETE TIMES:
And despite a 31-20 record, and the historical novelty that goes with it of being the first team in modern history (since 1900) to have the best record in the majors through Memorial Day after having the worst record the year before, they say they can play even better overall.
Monday was another example of everyone doing their part — well, except the community, as there was a crowd of only 12,174, fifth smallest at the Trop this season and smallest by far in the majors Monday.
RAYS FEVER? CATCH IT? SOMEBODY....ANYBODY????
It's going to be very embarrassing for the community and demoralizing to this team if in a possible stretch run and playoff appearances this place isn't filled near to capacity with a preponderance of Rays fans. Not Yankees fans or Sawks fans or Orioles fans, Rays fans, if indeed there are any.
It is rapidly approaching put up or shut up time for the Rays faithful.
The team and the city have plans on the board and in front of the community for a new downtown, waterfront, open air stadium to replace the Trop. It remains to be seen whether the good will the team has worked for over the last couple of years is overcome by the negative sentiment lingering over the secretive, behind closed doors vote that brought the dome to St. Petersburg in the first place.
The city built the facility over MLB's objections/suggestions that it would not help the city secure a team. The community was rightfully upset and splintered by the behind-the-back nature in which that city council voted, without community input, to build the stadium. That vote was a catalyst for the "Sunshine Law" which mandates that all business matters decided on by a local government, that effects a community materially, be conducted openly and publicly. So there is still some bad blood on both sides that has to be excised before the team/city is able to succeed in their quest for a new stadium.
PROPOSED NEW RAYS STADIUM
Another area of concern: the feeling amongst some in MLB's higher offices, that aside from pushing to the front of the line for a new team by building a new stadium--which backfired when expansion teams were awarded to Colorado and Miami--the St. Petersburg expansion proponents touted to major league baseball that the area had a large and rabid fan base just waiting to bust through the turnstiles.
They bragged mightily about a 30,000 fan season ticket waiting list,leaving owners to salivate over 2.5-3.0 million attendance for the newly-minted franchise. They consistently pointed to the fact that the area had provided loyal and consistent support to baseball in the exhibition season for many, many years and posited that they could and would easily support an 81-game per season major league regular season financially. They chastised baseball at every turn for not rewarding them for their loyal support.
Unfortunately, as history has borne out, that season ticket fan base melted like a Popsicle in the summer sun once the franchise was awarded. Folks that were on the list, which only took a $50 commitment as I recall (I was on it), quickly partnered up with friends and bought 1/2 and 1/4 shares in season-tickets once the sticker shock of season ticket prices became apparent. The 30,000 base dwindled to around 15,000 actual season-tickets and shares of same for the initial season.
Figures from Baseball_Reference.com
RAYS HISTORICAL ATTENDANCE 1998-2008:
Year Average Total League Average Total
1998 30,942 2,506,023 2,298,169
1999 21,601 1,562,827 2,286,874
2000 18,008 1,479,781 2,262,557
2001 16,026 1,298,075 2,346,071
2002 13.158 1,065,762 2,207,891
2003 13,070 1,058,695 2,191,745
2004 16,139 1,275 011 2,340,422
2005 14,052 1,124,189 2,360,452
2006 16,901 1,369,031 2,458,741
2007 17,148 1,389,031 2,527,968
DIAMONDBACKS HISTORICAL ATTENDANCE 1998-2008:
Year Average Total League Average Total
1998 44,571 3,600,412 2,401,674
1999 37,234 3,019,654 2,380,436
2000 36,324 2,819,539 2,480,194
2001 33,766 2,735,821 2,481,346
2002 39,515 3,200,725 2,309,294
2003 34,636 2,805,542 2,273,813
2004 31,105 2,519,560 2,512,690
2005 25,423 2,059,331 2,583,685
2006 25,821 2,091,505 2,598,741
2007 28,598 2,316,507 2,756,384
I used these two teams for comparison because they entered baseball at the same time. Granted they are in different leagues, but it's plain to see that the D-Backs have surpassed their league average attendance virtually every year of existence. Other than the initial year, the D-Rays/Rays have failed to poke their heads above the league average every year.
Both had great initial years D-Backs averaging 44,571 D-Rays averaging 30,942.
After the honeymoon however, the D-Rays attendance fell by approx. 30% the second year, by 40% the third year, 47% the fourth year and 54% by the fifth year as compared to the initial years attendance. Attendance fell for FIVE straight years after the inaugural season.
By comparison the D-Backs attendance fell 16% the second year, 18% the third year, 25% the fourth year, and then boomeranged back the fifth year to a -12% comparable number.
It seems like after the novelty of having a team wears off and the core level of fan support is determined, the Phoenix area trounced the Tampa Bay area in most measures.
According to Nielsen Media Research, the two markets are comparable is size with both weighing in around the 1.6 million household number. Both had similar histories as a site for spring training and minor league baseball support, so it seemed like the level of success would be about the same, but apparently not.
True, the Diamondbacks did come into the league with a better ownership group than the Rays did. No argument there. But the mistakes of the past are used as convenient excuses in the St. Pete area for the continued lack of support. New ownership it seems has erased as many of the prior sins as they could by providing free parking to economy-minded fans and allowing fans to bring of small coolers with refreshments for those concerned with the astronomical price of concessions. So what gives, T-Bay?
HEY, WE GAVE YOU BASTARDS FREE PARKING!!! WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT???
I just have to believe that in the upper echelons of baseball's management structure they must feel hoodwinked and defrauded for awarding a franchise to the area given the putrid performance at the gate.
The new ownership group has proven themselves, the team has proven themselves, now the only thing left is for the market to step up and prove itself ready for "The Show".
I've heard some fans from St. Pete say, "Well, they've been lousy for ten years, one season of success is not enough to win us over. Let them continue to win for about ten years or so and maybe we'll mosey on down to the park and catch a game."
I have news for those kind of knuckle-heads....When you go looking for your team
in ten years, you best pack a lunch...because they won't be there when you return. They will be somewhere else.
And don't count on that term "iron-clad" lease that I hear bandied about to bail you out. That's a contradiction in terms. Ask one of your lawyer friends about iron-clad leases and when he gets done laughing, listen up. Then get on your bike, or hop on the bus, or hitch hike to the ballpark and support your team. Or roll up your sleeves and prepare to help them pack. It's your choice.
Of course, it's entirely possible that the original decision to put the stadium in the location it's currently in was the original mistake. One that will be very difficult to recover from. The fallacy of putting the team's house in a spot where if you drew a 50-mile radius circle you would hit water 50% of the time is hard to argue against. Apparently, fish and plankton do not buy tickets to baseball games. Go figure.
Maybe adding an additional 10-15% of households to your team's marketing reach makes a material difference in attendance and maybe it doesn't. I'm just not sure the market will get a second chance to find out.
The City of St. Petersburg jumped the gun to put themselves strategically ahead of other expansion suitors nationally, but by not waiting until the area was awarded a franchise before building a stadium, they also nudged local jurisdictions whose locations would have been better suited to the long-term success of the franchise.
And the team is paying for the legacy of both of these tactical errors today. The only one who wins apparently is the City of St. Petersburg. I don't think it's any coincidence that none of MLB's corporate partners seem to reference St. Petersburg by name, in fact most distinctly reference Tampa--not Tampa Bay--Tampa, when mentioning the team. You think there experience with the NFL's Buccaneers doesn't give them a bit of a local feel for the geography down there.
If you believe that, I've got some swampland in Florida I'd like to interest you in buying. HAHAHAHA.
IT'S ALL ABOUT LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION!!!!
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UPDATE:
The case for the new St. Petersburg Downtown Stadium
http://www.majorleaguedowntown.com/
The case against the new St. Petersburg Downtown Stadium
http://www.stpetepoww.com/
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