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Monday, August 04, 2008

THE LONG ODDS OF MAKING IT AND RETURN ON INVESTMENT




I was happy to see another source detailing the chances that a typical baseball parent has for maneuvering their child from the "travel-ball/Little League/PONY ball world to the higher levels. It's clear at times that a reality check is in order.

FROM DALLASNEWS.COM:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/stories/070608dnsposcholarship1.3b76d39.html


It has often amazed me how much parents are willing to spend for the off-chance that their child will compete for a partial baseball scholarship at the NCAA level. Given that baseball is considered a minor sport, with only 13.7 scholarships available for a 25-30 man roster, well do the math. A typical player will only receive a 1/4 or a 1/3 scholarship anyway.

Some parents are willing to "invest" $10-$25,000 honing their game and getting exposure, on the off chance they will be offered a chance to play NCAA ball or get drafted to play professionally.

Given that nowadays many schools per year costs exceed that amount PER YEAR, you're laying out money you have almost no chance of ever getting back. Maybe better to put the money in a pre-paid college program and have the player walk-on, from a Return on Investment standpoint.

As referenced in the article as well, according to the Michigan High School Athletic Association, there are 30 TIMES more college scholarship dollars available for academics than athletics.


The Long Odds of Making It

Numbers from the NCAA:
BASEBALL:
High School Student-Athletes:....455,300
HS Senior Student-Athletes:......130,100

NCAA Student Athletes:...........25,700
NCAA Freshman Student-Athletes:...7,300

NCAA Student-Athletes Drafted:..........600
High School Student-Athletes Drafted:...650

% HS to NCAA..............5.6%
% NCAA to Professional...10.5%
% HS to Professional......0.5%

Far be it from me to squash any ones dream and since I do umpire and coach in both baseball and softball, to the extent the travel-ball phenomena grows up here in Illinois, I would stand to benefit every step of the way. It just seems like many parents have no idea what the landscape is at each level of play and get a rude awakening when they finally find out exactly how the game is played.

The problem is all of this romantic talk of allowing children to "pursue their dreams" too often denigrates into a "pursuit of the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow". The pot of gold may be a college scholarship or a pro contract, but it puts the kid in the unenviable position of being a commodity when all they really want or need to be doing before they are approaching adulthood is playing a game.

It is both sad and disturbing to hear nine and ten-year old girls parroting that the reason they like to play softball is because they could get a college scholarship. WHERE DOES THAT COME FROM? Not to be with their friends, or because it's fun. Because they could get a college scholarship. OK, have fun with that.

The parents who spend countless dollars on travel-ball and expensive pitching/hitting lessons and/or personal training end up going to the field with a sense of entitlement. They've paved the way for their child and are ill-prepared for the potholes in the road that occur when a call doesn't go their son's way or the coach doesn't play their Johnny over Billy. The umpire must be an idiot, doesn't he know their son is the next Ted Williams or Greg Maddux? The coach must be an imbecile, how can he not see their child's innate ability, to say nothing of the abilities bought and paid for.

This weed of entitlement then carries itself to baseball fields all the way up the line to high school ball and in some cases college baseball. But the weed begins it's growth in the youth fields of travel baseball.

The funny thing is, purely from an analysis standpoint, you would think that the more games that you are playing to determine your future, the less relative importance each individual game, each individual call, each individual coaches decision has on determining the future of Little Johnny and Little Billy. You're increasing the overall sample size from which to make a decision. If there's no future benefit to doing that, then the entire premise for playing more games falls flat.

If the coach sits Johnny one game to give Billy some AB's, Johnny's parents are all over the coach asking why Johnny the Stud is sitting. Or they sit by the fence fuming all game, making life miserable for other parents. Not to mention that they are demonstrating to Little Johnny how NOT to be a good team player.

If an umpire calls strike three on a pitch on the black, the same type parent is all over the umpire, as if that on call, that one AB will determine the kids future.

The real irony of the situation is this: even if the college or pro scout of these parents best baseball wet dreams happened to be at the game in question - and observed the situation in question - I can guarantee you from all of my experience, the scout would learn more about the kid and judge him from how he acted after the adversity happened.

Like scouts don't know that occasionally a close strike goes the pitchers way, they've only seen thousands of ballgames. They watch how the kid acts after he K's. If he keeps his head up, doesn't act out demonstrably about the call, he probably gains points in the scouts eye. More importantly would be how he responds the next AB. Did he learn anything from the previous AB? Does he make proper adjustments based on that knowledge?

It's not so much that you fail in baseball - it's a game of failure - it's a matter of how you respond to the failures that inevitably come your way.

Random Inspirational Quote:
"Our greatest glory is not in never failing, but in rising up every time we fail."


JUST LET THEM PLAY PEOPLE!!! IT'S BASEBALL. GET A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE AND A CLUE.

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