WHAT DO THE RAYS HAVE THAT THE GIANTS DON'T?
Dang it. The Rays get Burrell. At two years, $16M this is a good move for the Rays lineup. Maybe it's the Rays just have a better chance to win...maybe it's the better scenery in and around the ballpark. Heck, I don't know. Big loss for the G-men.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3811501
This is the guy I think the Giants could have used the most because of his impact on the entire lineup. And without the negative impact on the clubhouse that Manny might bring.
Now they may have to focus on a deal (lose Sanchez) or maybe Crede and Hinske. I'd rather not see Gillaspie blocked for too long, it may be better for him to have a full season in the minors, but we'll see. Hinske gives you some flexibility,, but much less of a respect/fear factor in the lineup.
And they do need some respect. Last year 15th of 16 teams in Offense. A feeble 640 runs scored and only 94 HR's will cause guys to come off the DL to pitch against you, not miss a start to avoid you. Renteria as an addition by himself doesn't add enough to move them up to middle of the pack. So clearly more work needs to be done.
The pitching staff may end up being a shaky foundation even after adding The Unit. Here's why:
Last year 9th of 16 teams in ERA at 4.38 allowed. 759 total runs allowed leaves a 119 run deficit between offense and defense. So even if some some combination of improvement close the deficit to zero, the best you can hope for is a .500 record.
Here's last years record for the projected starters:
18-5 Lincecum
8-14 Cain
11-10 Johnson (with D-Backs)
10-17 Zito
9-12 Sanchez
3-8 Correia
48-56 among returning starters, 56-58 if you take Correia out (please) and insert Johnson with his D-Backs productivity and durability. If he comes in and limps to 300 wins and exits to the DL shortly thereafter, we're looking at Correia or Lowry to pick up innings. Yuck.
We have to hope that Linceum's dad is right about his unique mechanics being so pristine that he won't ever hurt his arm. I do not want to be talking about him in the same vein as Mark Prior five years from now. So there's the hope and the fear in a nutshell. 18-5 is about the best we can hope for out of the top slot especially with the offensive support.
Which brings us to Cain. I was OK with the excuse that he received the worst run support in the league in 2007 when he finished 7-16, but last year he received virtually equal run support as Lincecum and Zito last year (Linceum 5.51, Cain 5.41, Zito 5.30) and he posted his 8-14 record. So the excuse flies out the window. As should Cain if he posts another anemic W-L record in 2009. Because then the entire league will know what many are beginning to whisper and that is that Cain may be just a good enough pitcher to lose games. Great stuff, maybe not so much fire in the belly. He wouldn't be the first guy who dazzled with his stuff but induced vomit with his W-L record.
Zito and his 10-17 has to be better. It's a crime that you almost have to hope against hope for a .500 record from a guy with his contract, but that's where we are. If he brings the same stuff, most fans would be praying for a DL sabbatical for Mr. Zito. As bad as that sounds, that's about where we are. If he's healthy management won't pull him. And although many semi-pro teams would kill for the stuff he has, they don't have enough broken bats or batting practice balls to offer in trade. So, it is what it is.
Sanchez also has to produce a plus .500 record, even with the offense he has to work with.
If we could get:
18-6 Lincecum
12-12 Cain
12-12 Zito
11-10 Sanchez
11-10 The Unit
That works out to 64-50 from the starters. The bullpen has to battle to .500 in the rest of the decisions, which almost by definition are back and forth affairs where the offense is performing reasonably well.
24-24 from the bullpen leaves you at 88-74.
You can compete with that record. Probably not win the division, or the wild-card.
But, baby-steps fans...baby-steps.
This is what we have to expect...even from Giants.
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