FIRST ROUND MADNESS

Well, the smoke has cleared a little bit as 1/2 the games are in the books.

We're in a pool where you get only one point and no bonus for the first round. I think it's time for a scoring update. The first round is all about picking the upset. After that it's just win, baby. But the charm of the first round is to be the one who had the stones to pick the potential Cinderella of the tournament. Why should picking a 1 vs. 16 match up give you the same points as going out on a limb and nailing that 5-12 upset or a 4 vs. 13? The first round points should be weighted to the size of the upset (i.e. if you pick a 12 to win over a five you get 7 points - 12 minus 5). If you pick the favorite you get 1 point.

In the subsequent rounds, if you pick that 12 to bounce a four, you get 16 points. The 12 minus 4 multiplied by 2 for Round 2. And so on down the line. If you pick the favorite, you just get 1 point in the 1st Round 2 points in the second round and so on.

Anyway, that's my rant for the day. Let's continue.

Team Obama picked 19 of the first 32 correct according to ESPN. I came in at 24 correct. That puts me in 18th place out of 39 office workers at my wife's firm. The Prognosticator in Chief would be DEAD LAST in my wife's office. This has not been a good week for the Comedian in Chief. First his misspeak on the Tonight Show reveals he would be a mediocre Special Olympics bowler. And now this.

Maybe as Coach Shisshevskivich, Coach Shhiskabob, aw heck Coach K from Duke said, he should concentrate more on the economy than brackets and comedy. I mean, poor Little Timmy Geithner doesn't even have anyone to get him coffee at the Treasury and we are in the middle of an economic meltdown and all. I'm not saying anything, I'm just saying.

The two tools I used to get my bracket right were as follows:

I looked at historical precedent dating back to 1985 and found in the first round teams seed 13-16 were very unlikely to win (39-345 record) and 10-12 seeds were pretty dicey as well (97-191). So there needs to be a compelling reason to pick them.

In the 2nd round same trend, 13-16 came in at (6-33) and 10-12 improved to (45-52). So I didn't go deeper than 13-16 in the first round. I have #12 Wisconsin winning another but that's it for the deep dogs.

In the Regional Round, Teams seeded 9th or higher get the boot. A (13-41) record will do that for you. Everybody else is in play..

In the Regional Finals, same thing. 9's and higher are (2-11) at this point.

In the Semis', anything higher than a #6 seed goes home (1-4). Fourth through six seeds are a combined (4-10) mostly due to the #4 seed (2-7) record. Seeds 1-3 are (41-34) not great, but not bad.

In the title game, 1 seeds are (14-9). After that, (10-15). So the higher seed is a 60-40 chance to win.

For the rest of the coin-toss games or where the historical precedent didn't lead me anywhere, I went with the Sheridan ratings. Dude is a 1970 MIT Mathematics graduate, so if I'm going to let anyone help me with my homework, it's going to be him.

I looked for game where the dog was better than the higher seed and went with it.

Arizona (15)was rated 83.01 vs. Utah (5) 85.38.
Southern Cal (10) was rated better than Boston College (7) by 84.36 to 82.63 plus they finished strong.
Maryland (10) was rated 82.83 vs California (7) 85.21 plus you have tradition and coaching on your side.
Wisconsin (12) was even with Florida State (5) 84.78 to 85.35. Close enough and I like Bo Ryan as a coach.
Michigan (10) was 83.85 vs. Clemson (7) at 87.36, so that was worth the try.

Minnesota (10) vs. Texas (7) didn't some through but Minnesota was 84.52 vs. Texas 85.15. It was worth a try.
Butler was rated higher than LSU by 84.47 - 83.59 and I liked their style of play so it was worth a try even though it didn't work.

Still a basket here or there and maybe I'm questioning the methodology. But it seems like a basket cost me at least two W's.

But that's what makes horse races. And March Madness.

Hopefully the methodology works in the later rounds. I think I went to much with the favorites down the road and that will come back to bite me. No real Cinderellas. I did like North Dakota State but they got a tough draw with Kansas in the Opening Round. Welcome to the NCAA Tournament fellas.