SORRY Z. - THE RISK IS NO LONGER WORTH THE REWARD
After the All-Star Game, I took a look at some of the questions posed during the All-Star Game post regarding why the recent A.L. domination here as well as during inter league play.
From the website Cot's Baseball Contracts:
I was originally looking at the data by team to see where the Giants were going in the next couple of years regarding payroll and free-agents (more waste and malfeasance than a government program) when I stumbled upon the breakdown by team and position which shows:
WHERE CLUBS SPEND
Team-by-team spending by position, as a percentage of total 2009 club payroll, with MLB rankings.
Payroll figures include 2009 salaries, plus a pro-rated share of any signing bonus, for players and former players with Major League contracts.
Payroll figures do not include deferred payments or performance, award or roster bonuses.
Just eyeballing the data and performing rudimentary statistical analysis, I came away with the following observations:
If you break down the teams by proportion of payroll spent on Pitchers vs. Position players and sort the teams into three groups of ten:
GROUP ONE: (Higher proportion of payroll allocated to pitchers vs. positions players)
ATL (66% - 34%) .500 record
CIN (61% - 39%) .484 record
AZ (55% - 45%) .424 record
SD (53% - 47%) .402 record
TX (52% - 48%) .544 record
NYM (50% - 50%) .473 record
SFG (50% - 50%) .549 record
PHI (50% - 50%) .573 record
COL (49% - 51%) .543 record
CLE (48% - 52%) .387 record
Group Average Record - .488
5 Teams over .500 - 5 Teams under .500
8 of 10 NL teams vs. 2 of 10 AL teams
This is the least successful group. The pitching/defense group. Significantly higher proportion of NL teams to AL teams.
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GROUP TWO: (Relatively balance payroll allocated to pitchers vs. positions players)
CHW (48% - 52%) .516 record
KC (48% - 52%) .407 record
SEA (48% - 52%) .533 record
TOR (47% - 53%) .495 record
MIL (46% - 54%) .511 record
CHC (46% - 54%) .522 record
STL (44% - 56%) .543 record
TB (44% - 56%) .554 record
LAA (42% - 58%) .578 record
HOU (40% - 60%) .500 record
Group Average Record - .516
8 Teams over .500 - 2 Teams under .500
4 of 10 NL teams vs. 6 of 10 AL teams
This is the most successful group relatively speaking. More AL teams vs. NL teams.
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GROUP THREE: (Higher proportion of payroll allocated to position players vs. pitchers)
BOS (40% - 60%) .604 record
LAD (38% - 62%) .630 record
DET (38% - 62%) .533 record
PIT (37% - 63%) .440 record
BAL (34% - 66%) .451 record
FLA (32% - 68%) .495 record
MIN (32% - 68%) .511 record
NYY (32% - 68%) .593 record
OAK (20% - 80%) .422 record
WAS (20% - 80%) .286 record
Group Average Record - .497
5 Teams over .500 - 5 Teams under .500
4 of 10 NL teams vs. 6 of 10 AL teams
This is the second most successful group relatively speaking, even though it includes such dregs as the Nationals, Pirates and the A's. More AL teams vs. NL teams.
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So it seems as if a "balanced to weighted more towards position players" payroll outperforms a "pitching / defense" oriented payroll. PED, recent stadium construction geared more towards hitters are factors pointing to a change-over to more offense in recent years and the A.L. has clearly capitalized on this more than the N.L. and the only difference is the Designated Hitter.
We've had a generation of players grow up in leagues, playing games under the D.H. rule.
The leagues have been playing under separate rules for a generation now. At first, the difference was necessary and meaningful. We had to see if the dumb rule worked. Well, we have enough data and the pendulum has clearly swung over to the A.L / pro-DH side.
We're electing guys to the Hall of Fame who have played virtually their entire careers as D.H's.
Can you imagine if the NFL allowed the AFC to play under one set of rules and the NFC under another?
How about the NBA? I'm not talking about style of play differences (West Coast runs/guns, East Coast bangs) but a significantly different set of rules that effects the style of play.
The N.L. owners have to come to their senses and adopt the D.H. now or continue to get spanked in All-Star games and inter-league play.
Sure, the occasional Carlos Zambrano, Rick Ankiel, C.C. Sabathia can hit on occasion, but why bother. Managers hate to see pitchers go down to injuries batting, bunting or running the bases when they are paid to get guys out. Ask Jerry Manuel about that one.
I have to admit, lifelong N.L. fan, love the style of play, but it is a relic of a bygone era.
THE DESIGNATED HITTER RULE SHOULD BE IMPLEMENTED UNIVERSALLY.
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