What wins in the playoffs? BALANCE.....

As we prepare to enter baseball's second season, the baseball gurus and pundits will deliver their pet theories as to what "wins in the playoffs". Normally it boils down to a single facet of the game like "defense wins championships" or "pitching wins in the playoffs" or some other neat, simple theory as to what wins. And we will self-select examples of teams that fit the mold/theory we create. But is it really that simple? And if it was, wouldn't it be easy to win championships?

From personal observation over the years, I saw too many teams that were somewhat one-dimensional in one area--built around the "defense wins championships" mantra-- that did not win in the playoffs due to the lack of even a modicum of offense. My football Giants did manage to win a couple of Super Bowls around a rock-ribbed defense and a somewhat pedestrian offense. They were also defeated in a Super Bowl by a Ravens team that was superior defensively and the opposite offensively. But these examples seem to be more the exception rather than the rule. I also remember watching many Pat Riley led Knicks teams in basketball that were built around strong defense--so much so that they couldn't throw the ball in the ocean at times--losing to more well-balanced Bulls and Rockets teams.

So what works in baseball?

Does better pitching win in the playoffs? It depends on what metric you look at-- just looking at lower ERA for example--the results are mixed. About 60% of the teams with lower ERA's win in the divisional and league championship series (about 62.5% win) but lose in the World Series (about 62% lose). Yikes, that's not conclusive. A mixed bag at best.

How about better defense? If you use fielding percent as a measurement, look again. Only about 50/50 in the DS and LCS and the roughly the same for the World Series. Inconclusive results at best, a coin flip.

How about the team with the better record? Does dominance in the marathon of the regular season translate into the sprint that is the playoffs? Here the results are a little bit clearer. In the DS and LCS, teams with the better overall record wins about 60% of the time. In the World Series, it's a coin flip. And this makes some sense since, even in this era of inter-league play, there likely isn't enough of a sample of games played to use the overall record as a valid metric for comparison in the World Series.

So what seems to work?

Teams that win the regular season series (establish dominance) win when they meet again in the playoffs. At about a 60% clip. That's significant and it makes sense intuitively. Don't fight the trend.

It dovetails nicely into the next metric. Home field advantage. That still works too. At about a high 50% rate. Which makes sense, the team that has the better overall record earns home-field advantage, has established dominance over the other team during the season. Those built in advantages are hard to turn around in the playoffs.

Having the better closer seems to work. If regular season saves are the metric used, the team with the more dominant closer wins about 70% of the time in the league playoffs and about 57% of the time in the World Series. Which makes sense, the team is playing with the lead late in games and has a rally stopper at the end of the bullpen to shorten games.

So pitching plays more of a role than hitting in a teams ability to MAKE the playoffs. For the most part, spotty pitching probably eliminates teams more so than dominant pitching wins for them. And hitting probably plays a lesser role than any element of the game. If we look at what statistics lead to ADVANCING in the playoffs, we see very few hitting stats rise to the top.

In fact, the hitting metric that most tells what teams perform better in the playoffs is a low strikeout ratio. A lower K% translates to winning about 60% of the time and conversely the pitching staff that has a high K% (power pitching) wins 60% of the time.

For hitters, a higher OBA, higher batting average and a higher runs scored vs. runs allowed (really a team stat) translate to winning in the playoffs about 55% of the time.

More stolen bases (speed) wins about 55% of the time as well. So a team with a more diversified offense, that can manufacture runs when the power bats go silent and keep pressure on the defense, has a better chance of winning than a one-dimensional offense.

For pitchers, allowing fewer hits than your opponents wins about 65% of the time. Number of shutouts vs. your opponents shutouts (dominant pitching) wins about 67% of the time. Keeping the ball in the yard wins about 60% level as well and not allowing runs wins about 55% of the time (seems like a no brainer).

The better fielding team, measured by number of errors, wins about 60% of the time as well, so defense shows up as a statistically significant measurement as well.

So we have pitching, speed, defense...what about hitting? Don't chicks dig the long ball in the playoffs? Well, they may dig the long ball, but they will probably need a boost of Viagra if their favorite team relies on the long ball to win in the playoffs.

Teams that win the HR battle during the season only succeed at about a 40% rate in the playoffs. Slugging Percent--about 40% winning percentage. Batting Average and OBA are about a coin flip. 50/50.

So what's a team to do, what is the formula for success in the playoffs?

Formula for pitchers:
Allow fewer hits than your opponent - Wins 70% of the time.
Have your pitchers throw MORE shutouts - Wins 70% of the time.
Have your pitcher keep the ball in the yard - Wins 65% of the time.
Pitch more complete games - Wins 60% of the time.
Have a lower ERA that your opponents - Wins 60% of the time.

Formula for fielders/defense:
Commit fewer errors than your opponent - Wins 70% of the time.
Have a higher Defensive Efficiency Rating than your opponent - Wins 60% of the time.

Formula for base runners:
Steal more bases than your opponent - Wins 65% of the time.

Formulas for hitters:
Strikeout fewer times than your opponent - Wins 70% of the time.

So, pitch, play defense, put pressure on the opponents defense, steal bases and hitters--just don't strike out, put ball in play and extend AB's.

The conclusion seems to be that winning in the playoffs doesn't lend itself neatly to reliance on one dimension or one individual metric, but rather on a well-balanced composite of skills that lead to success.

THAT WAS EASY!!!