Does the stock market imitate baseball?

BULLS OR BEARS? FUNDAMENTALS OR TECHNICALS? SCOUTS OR STATS?


Fundamentals or Technicals, that is the question.
Is DOW 10,000 an important psychological number or just a number?
Time will tell.

FROM MARKETWATCH.COM

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/traders-mark-50-retracement-for-sp-500-2009-10-14

Yet traders who rely on technical analysis were focused on a different number and index. Specifically, 1,121 on the S&P 500 (SPX 1,088, +14.37, +1.34%) , another popular benchmark to take the market's pulse. Chart watchers have marked 1,121 for the S&P 500 as a crucial point because it represents a 50% retracement of the epic market crash that played out between October 2007 and March 2009. The 50% level is a favorite among traders because stocks have historically tended to move even higher once they clear that hurdle. Retracements of 38.2% and 61.8% are other key points, based on the Fibonacci series. 'Important level' The 50% retracement level of 1,121 is the midpoint between the S&P 500's all-time high of 1,576 in October 2007, and the bear-market low of about 666 in early March.

In regard to the lingering Moneyball debate of employing statistical analysis vs. old-school scouting of physical tools to evaluate players, I do see a bit of a parallel. The stock market has its own philosophical divide in the battle between those who employ fundamental analysis and those who believe in technical analysis to guide their evaluation of the market and how to trade.

And why not? Michael Lewis, the author of Moneyball, previously wrote "Liar's Poker" which was about the financial industry and the big money players on Wall Street.

I think one of the lessons that baseball should have been learned from Moneyball was not to rely on just one method or the other, but an intelligent blending of the most effective information obtained from both methodologies. They complement rather than compete with one another.

One of the lessons learned the hard and expensive way from the recent market collapse was being blind or ignorant to the signals given by one methodology that are not looked at through adherence to the other can lead to repeated errors and frustration.

For what it's worth, my predictions for the market:
The DOW reaches 11,300
The S&P500 reached 1,295

mainly because,

The Dollar Index continues its slow death spiral and moves from $75 to $65. But hopefully, it does so in an orderly fashion. Doesn't that sound like how one would exit a burning building?

"The dollar worth less (two words) on the road to worthless (one word)"

The Treasuries are about to get their come-uppance with
The 30 year rising from 4.25% to 4.75% or higher shortly. Get your refi or your mortgage now, people.

which dovetails to,

Oil rising from $75 to $95 on the road back to triple digits.
Gold marches from $1,050 to $1,300--but it is....
Silver that shines brightest moving from $17.50 to $25
Ag Prices will rise with the Goldman Sachs Ag Index rising from 325 to 400
The CRB index rises from 270 to 320

So if you eat it, fuel your vehicle with it, produce anything with petroleum products, or use dollars to buy it, it will be more expensive in the future.

And tell your damn CPI to shut the heck up.

If the frauds in government had not criminally manipulated that statistic to rip off grandma and grandpa's Social Security cost of living adjustments, then we wouldn't be offering them $250 dollar "guilt" checks after the fact now would we?

These can't be any worse than my baseball predictions, can they?

Enjoy DOW 10K while you can folks, because we will ALL surely pay for it in the future. Let the great shell game of life continue.