Handicapping the Heisman

Early returns and projections are starting to flow in for the 75th Heisman Trophy to be awarded Saturday, December 12th.

Based on my observations, and admittedly I vote more with my heart than with my head here, I would vote:

1. Tim Tebow
2. Case Keenum
3. Colt McCoy
4. Toby Gerhart
5. Andy Dalton
6. Mark Ingram

Sam Bradford would have been in there of course if not for his shoulder injury. Tebow and McCoy statistically are similar and they are burdened by comparisons to their prior season of greatness. Tebow has more impact on his team as well as college football at large and may slip in with a "lifetime achievement" award sentiment. I would have no problem with that whatsoever. Keenum and Gerhart are hurt by lack of national exposure from the beginning of the season on. It's tough for a candidate to make a late-season, Cinderella like charge to the finish. No doubt it would have been a more interesting vote with Bradford in the mix, given that both he and Tebow would be vying for two-time winner status.

The numbers based on some other observers methodology. The stiff arm trophy site uses methodology featured in a Wall Street Journal - Numbers Guy article that we featured a couple of years back. They have a pretty good track record predicting the winner. But you never know until the announcement is made.
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According to scippsnews.com
http://www.scrippsnews.com/content/colt-mccoy-texas-grabs-lead-shns-heisman-poll

Heisman ballots are due on Monday with the 75th winner to be announced Saturday, Dec. 12, in New York City.

This week's poll, with statistics from last week.

Player, Position, School, Last Week, Points.

1. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas, 24-of-40, 304 yards passing, 4 TDs, 175 yards rushing, TD run. 43 (5).

2. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida, 17-of-21, 221 yards passing, 3 TDs, 90 yards rushing, 2 TD runs, 30 (3).

3. Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford, 29 carries, 205 yards, 3 TD runs, threw 18-yard TD pass, 29 (2).

4. Case Keenum, QB, Houston, 25-of-31, 323 yards passing, 2 TDs, TD run, 15.

5. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama, 16 carries, 30 yards, 14.

Others receiving votes: Boise State QB Kellen Moore 6; Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh, 2; TCU QB Andy Dalton 2; TCU DE Jerry Hughes, 1; Missouri WR Danario Alexander 1.

(Scripps Howard News Service Heisman Trophy poll voters: Kirk Bohls, Austin (Texas) American-Statesman; Jimmy Burch, Fort Worth Star-Telegram; Dennis Dodd, CBSSports.com; Vahe Gregorian, St. Louis Post-Dispatch; Mike Griffith, The Knoxville (Tenn.) News-Sentinel; Michael Lewis, Salt Lake Tribune; Bob Condotta, Seattle Times; John Lindsay, Scripps Howard News Service; Tom Luicci, The (Newark) Star-Ledger; John Rohde, The Oklahoman.)

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According to The StiffArmTrophy.com website
http://www.stiffarmtrophy.com/

Last updated: 12/2/2009, 11:02 p.m. Pacific. 10 ballots, 23 votes.

name first second third ballots points Projected Proj%
T Gerhart 1 0 3 4 6 1062 38.2%
C McCoy 3 2 1 6 14 710 25.6%
T Tebow 2 2 1 5 11 515 18.5%
N Suh 1 1 0 2 5 77 2.8%
D Alexander 0 0 1 1 1 37 1.3%
CJ Spiller 0 1 1 2 3 31 1.1%
M Ingram 0 0 2 2 2 30 1.1%
M Gilyard 0 0 1 1 1 29 1.0%
K Moore 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%