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Monday, July 19, 2010

Report Card on my pre-season baseball predictions



MY PRE-SEASON PREDICTIONS:
http://slavieboy.blogspot.com/2010/04/pre-season-mlb-predictions-2010.html

VERSUS

COOL BASEBALL STANDINGS - "EXPW" OR EXPECTED WINS TOTAL AS OF TODAY
http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?i=1

Since we gave the G-men a report card, we may as well turn the mirror towards ourselves and see how well our pre-season prognostication is holding up.

AL EAST - A slam dunk across the board in terms of order. Rays on track to win 97 vs 90-95 predicted and Jays could finish .500 versus 7 wins predicted. Orioles worst than expected if that's even possible.

(5-5 hit rate)

AL CENTRAL - A slam dunk again in terms of order of finish. Tightly packed, so that could change daily. WSox about as expected, on pace for 89 wins versus high 80's predicted. Twins in the mid 80's, Tigers around .500, Royals may get to mid 70's predicted, Indians worse than anticipated, if that's possible.

(5-5 hit rate)

AL WEST - Ugh!! Angels roughly as expected, around 85 wins. Rangers outperfroming 93 wins pace versus low 80's predicted. Mariners totally suck, may lose 100 versus low 80's predicted. A' as always, better than expected, near .500 versus mid 70's expected.

(1-4 hit rate, 11-14 in the AL)

Now, to the NL.

NL EAST - Braves way better than expected, on pace for mid 90's wins versus mid 80's expected. Mets are better than expected at high 80's pace rather than .500 expected. Phillies are under performing as a result, an 85 win pace versus 90+ expected. Marlins and Nats are performing as expected.

(2-5 hit rate)

NL CENTRAL - Cards are on 90+ pace as expected. Cubs will be lucky to reach the .500 expected, currently on 75 win pace. Brewers are mid 70's rather than .500 expected. Big miss on the Reds, expected about a 75 win team, on pace for 91 wins. Astros worse than expected 63 wins pace versus 75 expected. Pirates are about right, 100 losses or bust.

(4-6 hit rate)

NL WEST - Hit the Giants on the nose and the Dodgers pretty close. Rockies as expected as well, near .500. Big miss on the Padres to the plus side (96 wins pace versus 70 expected) and the D-Backs on the minus side (61 wins pace versus 85 expected).

(3-5 hit rate, 9-16 in the NL, 20-30 overall)

Two out of three, not too bad. You could make some money in Vegas betting the over/under wins totals at that rate, although some are pretty close.

Overall, probably a B-.

Padres and Reds are the big surprises. I think the Padres are going to be in it all the way, not sure sure about Dustiny's Darlings. Rangers are seizing on their opportunity with the Cliff Lee deal, so they will be players down the stretch.

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