Grading the Giants Draft

At the risk of opening myself up to a "Who the hell is Mel Kiper?" type moment, I am going to grade the Giants draft the day after it is completed. For those of you that don't know or remember what I am talking about, the original quotes are shown below and a YouTube of Bill Tobin's next day, follow-up critique of the previously little-known Kiper's credentials to opine which in hindsight launched the the career of one Mel Kiper, draft-expert.

Note: Keith Olbermann looks like he was wearing a disguise, but that was his genuine appearance back in the day. Once a dork, always a dork.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/pete_mcentegart/04/22/ten.spot/index.html

3. "Who the hell is Mel Kiper?", 1994
Draft guru Mel Kiper has become as associated with one day as Punxsutawney Phil and Santa Claus, but his opinions often rankle NFL execs. Never was that demonstrated more clearly than when Kiper kvetched that the Colts should have taken quarterback Trent Dilfer rather than linebacker Trev Alberts with the fifth pick. "Who the hell is Mel Kiper?" thundered Colts VP Bill Tobin. "He's never been a player, he's never been a coach, he's never been a scout, he's never been an administrator, and all of a sudden, he's an expert. He has no more credentials to do what he's doing than my neighbor, and my neighbor's a postman." As a postscript, in 2001 the Palm Beach Post asked mail handler Calvin Falana to pick the top 10 picks, and he got eight of 10 correct (though not in order) compared to six for Kiper.

Bill Tobin vs Mel Kiper - 1994 Part 2




Anyway, back to the Giants and my simple -- but effective -- grading method.

I generally use the Baseball America Top 200 Prospects List as near gospel, because they are the acknowledged leaders in following youth, high school and collegiate players. I also looked at Mlb.com's Top 50 prospects list.

In scanning the Giants picks from the first 30 rounds, they managed to secure three of Mlb.com's top 50 by selecting Susac, Oropesa and Osich.

Knowing that there are 32 teams in the league and ignoring the over/under weighting effects of compensation picks each team has 1/32 or 3.125% chance of getting each top 50 prospects. Three and 1/8 percent would be average selecting by the organization. The Giants came in at 6%. I would give them an A here.

Looking over Baseball America's list, the Giants selected 6 of the Top 100 (6%) and 8 of the Top 200 (4%). Doubling the expected rate gives them another A in the Top 100 category (most likely to succeed) and no less than a B in the Top 200 category which provides organizational depth and at worst future trade pieces.

The Giants added four useful position players, all collegians, who should be ready to help quickly by adding:

#30 Susac, C
#57 Oropesa, 1B/3B
#67 Panik 2B/SS
#165 Garrett Beuchele 3B (added late yesterday)

They helped the pitching depth by adding:

#41 Osich, LHP
#47 Crick, RHP (a hard-throwing Texan RHP)
#99 Marlowe, RHP
#117 Bandilla, LHP

Not a bad day and a half's worth of work by the Giants scouting staff. Only two or three of these guys have to hit for it to be a pretty successful draft.

So put that in your pipe and smoke it Marge Schott, wherever you are. (some would say HELL) Apparently, scouts do more than watch games. At least if they do it right.


Also, Bill Parcells didn't seem to think too highly of Mel Kiper, either. HATERS all around.

I caught a glimpse of the Bill Parcells’ draft special on ESPN recently. Now THERE’S a man who knows about the draft and has a valid opinion throughout the NFL community. When he got asked something along the lines of, “Do you think any teams keep Mel Kiper’s draft rankings in their locker before draft time?” Parcells simply responded with a pretty basic “F*&^ no. That’s ret$%^ded.”