Don't Panik yet Giants fans, your team may just be regressing to the mean

The team started out the season on paper looking like an 85-87 win team. They come out of the chute winning at about a .614 clip for the first 70 games, almost a half season. That is a 98 win season if they can continue at that pace, which they cannot. According to this analysis by Fan Graphs, they finish the season with 90 wins, a bump from pre-season expectations, but a downgrade from that lofty 98 win pace.


from fangraphs.com

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#NL-W

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	2014 Year to Date							2014 Projected Rest of Season							2014 Projected Full Season
Team	G	W	L	W%	RDif	RS/G	RA/G	G	W	L	W%	RDif	RS/G	RA/G	W	L	W%	RDif	RS/G	RA/G
Giants	72	43	28	.606	48	4.26	3.60	90	47	43	.525	19	3.96	3.74	90	72	.557	67	4.09	3.68
Dodgers	73	39	34	.534	30	4.25	3.84	89	50	39	.558	45	4.18	3.67	89	73	.547	75	4.21	3.75
Rockies	72	34	37	.479	10	5.00	4.86	90	44	46	.489	-10	4.56	4.67	78	84	.481	0	4.75	4.75
Padres	71	29	42	.409	-66	2.96	3.89	91	45	46	.491	-7	3.78	3.86	74	88	.455	-73	3.42	3.87
Diamondbacks	74	30	44	.405	-62	4.11	4.95	88	43	45	.487	-11	4.14	4.26	73	89	.450	-73	4.13	4.57

Regression toward the mean can be a real bees-wax.

from wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and, paradoxically, if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.[1][2][3] To avoid making incorrect inferences, regression toward the mean must be considered when designing scientific experiments and interpreting data.[4]

So relax fellow Giants fans. This is normal behavior for a team over the course of a 162 game season.

You don't have to trade Buster Posey and wave the white flag just yet.