Would you rather give up your home-field advantage or your ace?

Reports say that the Giants will not pitch Madison Bumgarner on the final day of the regular season, even if the home field advantage is at stake in order to save him for a potential Wild Card game, even if that means said W/C game then becomes a road game.  i.e.: they would rather have Bumgarner on the mound in STL or PIT, rather than Peavy or Huddy or Petit at home versus same opponents for a one and done, death match. 

from sfgate.com
http://www.sfgate.com/giants/article/Giants-pitching-probables-Sept-26-5781590.php

Even if Sunday’s game would determine home-field advantage for the wild card, Bochy wants to avoid using Bumgarner.

“I think we’ll keep him back,” Bochy said. “Sure, that would be a really important game, but we think we have an option to give us a good chance to win that game.”

At first blush, this appears to be going against the book somewhat. Giving up home field advantage? Can you imagine a football team doing that coming down the stretch run and heading to the playoff? The fans ( and sportswriters would kill them). But maybe Bochy knows his guys better than most of use arm-chair managers give him credit for.

Let's look at the stats:

Bumgarner has posted 15 starts at home this year and he has:
7-6 W-L record ( 0.538 win pct)
1 CG (6.67% of starts)
91 IP ( 6.07 IP/start)
101 K (1.11 K/IP)
24 BB ( 4.21 K/BB ratio )
90 H (0.99 H/IP)
1.24 WHIP
4.03 ERA
.260 BAA

Bumgarner has posted 18 road start this year and he has:
11-4 W-L record ( 0.733 win pct)
3 CG 16.67% of starts)
125 IP (6.94 IP/start)
118 K (0.924 K/IP)
19 BB ( 6.21 K/BB ratio )
104 H  (0.83 H/IP)
0.98 WHIP
2.22 ERA
.224 BAA

The only stat he shows better in is K/IP and that could very well be due to getting amped up at home by the crowd with two-strikes on the batter. Maybe a calmer Bummer is a better Bummer.  

So paradoxically, even though the home confines are considered to be a notorious pitcher's park, at least in Bummer's case this year, statistically he pitches better (maybe much better) on the road. Bumgarner has won eleven of fifteen decisions on the road this year, a 73% winning percentage. No Giants starter at home gives a better shot of winning than 73%, even at home.

So sign me up as being on board with the plan. The other option for pitching the last game at home, if it's meaningful, might be none other than Tim Lincecum. I know most would think Bochy meant Peavy as the better option, but consider this:

Starts at home and results:
Lincecum 15 GS 8-3 W-L (.727 win pct)
Bummer 15 GS 7-6 W-L (.538 win pct)
Vogue 15 GS 3-6 W-L (.333 win pct)
Hudson 14 GS 5-5 W-L (.500 win pct)
Petit 7 GS 4-3 W-L (.571 win pct)
Peavy 5 GS 3-2 W-L (.600 win pct)

Lincecum is the man at AT&T this year. I know, Peavy is the proverbial hot-hand, but can you imagine that yard, with their favorite-son Timmy dealing, for home-field advantage? You're almost in a can't lose situation. If you win, you come back home for the one-game death match against the Pirates / Cardinals. If you lose, you have Bumgarner leading the charge on the road, where apparently he feeds on the opposition fans noise.

Looking forward to the final games and the death match. I feel much better about our chances now. Isn't math / statistics fun?