How BBWAA voting predicts future Hall of Famers | Baseball: Past and Present

BTW: This is blog post #1900 for TheSlav. ~;::::::;( )">  ¯\_( )_/¯ DING, DING, DING!!!!!! 

Although small sample size by definition, this analysis provides a bit of hope for some of the so-called PED guys, We have no idea as to how this past voting history and the Hall of Fame corrective mechanism provided by the Veterans Committee and Old Timers Committee will translate into the future and applied to the PED crowd.



Perhaps if more black and brown players begin to populate the two committees to say nothing of the BBWAA, we will begin to see progress. Some further corrective action is in order.



If not, it shouldn't be long before both the BBWAA and the baseball Hall of Fame is looked upon as elitist, exclusionary institutions in the same way that Augusta National CC is, if not outright racist institutions,



Can somebody point out for me the white equivalent to the hose job given to Carlos Delgado, to say nothing of Sheffield? The whole process has increasingly become a sick joke and the MLB hierarchy should, at least in some ways, show that they are embarrassed by it.



from Baseball Past and Present:

How BBWAA voting predicts future Hall of Famers | Baseball: Past and Present: 

Using Baseball-Reference.com, I recently went through every BBWAA vote since 1936, making a list of the 884 players who’ve received at least one vote and 221 more players who’ve appeared on the ballot and not gotten any votes. What I found: If a player gets even 20 percent of the writers vote, there’s a better than 50 percent chance they’re eventually going in. If they top 45 percent, their bid is more or less guaranteed. Not counting players currently on the ballot, 136 of the 139 players who’ve received at least 45 percent of the Hall of Fame vote from the writers are now enshrined.

There’s a question of causation or correlation between the BBWAA and Veterans Committee results that I don’t know I can answer here. There’s no proof, so far as I know at least, that the Veterans Committee cribs off the BBWAA to build its ballots. My gut is that the writers are a tough electorate and that any player who rises above 20 percent in the vote is a fairly popular candidate. I think the Veterans Committee would look to these players first even if the BBWAA wasn’t voting.

A more conclusive breakdown of my findings is as follows:

I. Enshrined by the BBWAA

Not counting Lou Gehrig or Roberto Clemente, who each were enshrined through special elections called for by the Hall of Fame, I count 117 people enshrined by the BBWAA. That leaves another 193 Hall of Famers, 96 of whom received at least one vote from the BBWAA at some point. Most of the remaining 97 Hall of Famers are executives and Negro League selections who fall outside the purview of the BBWAA. I’ll list the 17 Hall of Fame players who never appeared on a BBWAA ballot at the bottom of this.

I. Peaked between 70 and 74.9 percent on the BBWAA ballot 

A. The four people who peaked in this range: Jim Bunning, 74.2 percent in 1988; Orlando Cepeda, 73.5 percent in 1994; Frank Chance, 72.5 percent in 1945; Nellie Fox, 74.7 percent in 1985.

B. Since enshrined: 4/4

1. How they got in: Nellie Fox by Veterans Committee in 1997; Jim Bunning by Veterans Committee in 1996; Orlando Cepeda by Veterans Committee; Frank Chance by Old Timers Committee in 1946.

C. Not enshrined: None

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There should be more accountability from the BBWAA to the fans, to say nothing of the players whose lives are being tarnished unjustly.

So there it is, your 2015 Hall of Fame class. Let the weeping and/or gnashing of teeth proceed. Four guys who belong but so many more who appear to belong as well, but for whatever reason(s), fell short.

• Schilling surprisingly short IMO, given that his career seemed virtually equal to Smoltz in many respects.
• Mussina very surprisingly short given that he seemed statistically superior to Smoltz and Schilling. I guess I don't understand the "compiler" argument, which seems to embody exactly what you look for in a player: consistent excellence, day after day over a long period of time. If the argument is "you have to have been in the top 0.01% for some period of time in your career", well you need to sweep out dozens of guys currently residing there. 
• Piazza, Bagwell and Larry Walker among the holdovers were surprisingly short as well as Edgar Martinez and Jeff Kent. 
• Sheffield, Delgado and Garciapara among the newbies were surprisingly weak.  
• How did Brian Giles not get a single vote?!? And Darin Esratd did?!? C'mon Man!!!!

A lot to complain about in a crowded field. Always more to complain about than celebrate.

We'll see how this shakes out in 2016 when only Ken Griffey, Jr. should be a lock among the new entries.

It was painful to watch the ESPN commentary especially them asking Curt Schilling to comment on what a great party it was given that he clearly expected to be participating in it as well as commenting on it.

Couldn't you have given him the day off ESPN?

BBWAA.com: Official site of the Baseball Writers' Assn. of America.:

2015 Hall of Fame

Writers Elect 4 for 1st Time in 60 Years

Name	Votes (Pct.)	Yrs on ballot
Randy Johnson	534 (97.3)	1
Pedro Martinez	500 (91.1)	1
John Smoltz	455 (82.9)	1
Craig Biggio	454 (82.7)	3
Mike Piazza	384 (69.9)	3
Jeff Bagwell	306 (55.7)	5
Tim Raines	302 (55)	8
Curt Schilling	215 (39.2)	3
Roger Clemens	206 (37.5)	3
Barry Bonds	202 (36.8)	3
Lee Smith	166 (30.2)	13
Edgar Martinez	148 (27)	6
Alan Trammell	138 (25.1)	14
Mike Mussina	135 (24.6)	2
Jeff Kent	77 (14)	2
Fred McGriff	71 (12.9)	9
Larry Walker	65 (11.8)	5
Gary Sheffield	64 (11.7)	1
Mark McGwire	55 (10)	9
Don Mattingly	50 (9.1)	15
Sammy Sosa	36 (6.6)	3
Nomar Garciaparra	30 (5.5)	1
Carlos Delgado	21 (3.8)	1
Troy Percival	4 (0.7)	1
Aaron Boone	2 (0.4)	1
Tom Gordon	2 (0.4)	1
Darin Erstad	1 (0.2)	1
Rich Aurilia	0 (0)	1
Tony Clark	0 (0)	1
Jermaine Dye	0 (0)	1
Cliff Floyd	0 (0)	1
Brian Giles	0 (0)	1
Eddie Guardado	0 (0)	1
Jason Schmidt	0 (0)	1

Three pitchers who combined to win nine Cy Young Awards and a member of Major League Baseball’s 3,000 Hit Club were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in balloting by the BBWAA verified by Ernst & Young.


Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz became the first trio of pitchers honored by the BBWAA in the same election. Each was on the ballot for the first time, which created a precedent with three first-ballot candidates elected in consecutive years, following that of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas in 2014. Craig Biggio, who missed election last year by two votes, gained entry in this year’s election in his third time on the ballot. They will be inducted July 26 as part of the Hall’s Induction Weekend July 24-27 in Cooperstown, N.Y.

Johnson, a five-time Cy Young Award winner with the Seattle Mariners in 1995 and with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002, was the leading vote getter with 534 of the 549 ballots, including one blank, cast by senior members of the BBWAA,writers with 10 or more consecutive years of service. It represented 97.3 percent of the vote, the eighth highest plurality in the history of balloting, topped only by Tom Seaver (98.9), Nolan Ryan (98.7), Cal Ripken Jr. (98.5), Ty Cobb (98.2), George Brett (98.2), Hank Aaron (97.8) and Tony Gwynn (97.6).

Candidates must be named on 75 percent of ballots submitted to gain election. Martinez, who won the Cy Young Award with the Montreal Expos in 1997 and with the Boston Red Sox in 1999 and 2000, received 500 votes (91.9). Smoltz, the 1996 National League Cy Young Award winner with the Atlanta Braves, got 455 votes (82.9), one more than Biggio (82.7), all of whose 3,060 career hits were with the Houston Astros.

The previous time four players were elected in the same year was 1955 (Joe DiMaggio, Gabby Hartnett, Dazzy Vance, Ted Lyons). The only other year four players were chosen by the writers was in 1947 (Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbell, Mickey Cochrane, Frankie Frisch). The class of 1939 had four players, but only three (George Sisler, Eddie Collins, Willie Keeler) were in the BBWAA election. Lou Gehrig, forced to retire because of illness, was selected by the writers in acclamation in a special election at that year’s Winter Meetings.

This year was the first time since 1954-55 that three or more players were elected in consecutive years. In 1954, Bill Dickey, Bill Terry and Rabbit Maranville were elected. The first vote in 1936 was the only time five players (Cobb, Honus Wagner, Babe Ruth, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson) were elected. In addition to the past two years and the first election, the only other time three players made the grade in their first year on the ballot was in 1999 (Nolan Ryan, George Brett, Robin Yount).

Falling 28 votes shy of the 412 required for election this year was catcher Mike Piazza, whose vote total represented 69.9 percent. The only other players to be named on more than half the ballots were first baseman Jeff Bagwell (55.7) and outfielder Tim Raines (55.0). Players may remain on the ballot provided they receive at least five percent of the vote for up to 10 years.

Others who qualified for future consideration were pitcher Curt Schilling (39.2), pitcher Roger Clemens (37.5), outfielder Barry Bonds (36.8), relief pitcher Lee Smith (30.2), infielder-designated hitter Edgar Martinez (27.0), shortstop Alan Trammell (25.1), pitcher Mike Mussina (24.6), second baseman Jeff Kent (14.0), first baseman Fred McGriff (12.9), outfielder Larry Walker (11.8), outfielder Gary Sheffield (11.7), first baseman Mark McGwire (10.0), outfielder Sammy Sosa (6.6) and shortstop Nomar Garciapiarra (5.5). In his final year on the ballot, first baseman Don Mattingly received 50 votes (9.1) and will be eligible for consideration by the Expansion Era Committee in two years.

The Hall of Fame now has 310 elected members, including 215 players, of which 119 have come through the BBWAA ballot.

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http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/hof_monitor.shtml