Distorted Incentives for Prosecutors and the Justice Department Ferguson Report

Here I think outgoing Attorney General Eric Holder saved his best work for last and he should be applauded for that. The Ferguson Police Department investigation threw water on the fire rather than gasoline and is very well done.  

One wonders how many other communities, whether they be predominantly white or black, are chafing under the yoke of a police department that operates as a "revenue generator" rather than protector of the community.  The same dynamic plays itself out in the obscene levels of incarceration seen in some areas of this country that have turned entire neighborhoods into American Gulags.

Distorted Incentives for Prosecutors, by David Henderson Posted: 09 Mar 2015 03:18 PM PDT You get (more of) what you (don't) pay for. When a local prosecutor sends a convicted felon to prison, the cost of keeping him locked up--an average of $31,286 per year--is paid for entirely by the state, not the county where the prosecutor holds office. The problem with this setup, some argue, is that prosecutors end up enjoying a "correctional free lunch," meaning they can be extremely aggressive in their charging decisions without having to worry about how much it will cost the local taxpayers who elected them. If prosecutors were forced to take the cost of incarceration into account, the theory goes, there might not be 1.36 million people in America's state prisons. This is the first paragraph of an excellent piece in Slate on the distorted incentives that prosecutors face. The piece, by Leon Neyfakh, is titled "How to Stop Overzealous Prosecutors." Of course, if the locals pay all the costs of an incarceration, you might get "under zealous" prosecutors. Why? Because the benefits of prosecution don't all flow to the locals. Some of the benefits arguably go to people in other parts of the state and, maybe, other parts of the country. I don't worry about this incentive in the other direction, though, when I look at police behavior and D.A. behavior. I think the downside from too few prosecutions is much less than the downside from too many. It seems unlikely that prosecutors would substitute by prosecuting more marijuana crimes and fewer murders. As almost anyone who looks at the criminal justice system in America (and I use the word "justice" loosely) can see, it's what my military officer students call a Charley Foxtrot. The Justice Department report on Ferguson's system as a revenue generator rather than a justice seeker was highly informative. (See pp. 9-15 of the report.) I do have one problem, though, with the proposal from W. David Ball that the Slate author mentions. Neyfakh writes: "Ball argues that states should take the money they're currently spending on their prison systems, distribute it among counties based on their violent crime rate, and allow local decision-makers to spend it as they see fit." Professor Bell is proposing that the more violent crime a county has, the more money it would get. Do you see a problem? (9 COMMENTS) http://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/opa/press-releases/attachments/2015/03/04/ferguson_police_department_report.pdf III. FERGUSON LAW ENFORCEMENT EFFORTS ARE FOCUSED ON GENERATING REVENUE  IV. FERGUSON LAW ENFORCEMENT PRACTICES VIOLATE THE LAW AND UNDERMINE COMMUNITY TRUST, ESPECIALLY AMONG AFRICAN AMERICANS  V. CHANGES NECESSARY TO REMEDY FERGUSON'S UNLAWFUL LAW ENFORCEMENT PRACTICES AND REPAIR COMMUNITY TRUST  A. Ferguson Police Practices  1. Implement a Robust System of True Community Policing 2. Focus Stop, Search, Ticketing and Arrest Practices on Community Protection  3. Increase Tracking, Review, and Analysis of FPD Stop, Search, Ticketing and Arrest Practices 4. Change Force Use, Reporting, Review, and Response to Encourage De-Escalation and the Use of the Minimal Force Necessary in a Situation  5. Implement Policies and Training to Improve Interactions with Vulnerable People 6. Change Response to Students to Avoid Criminalizing Youth While Maintaining a Learning Environment  7. Implement Measures to Reduce Bias and Its Impact on Police Behavior 8. Improve and Increase Training Generally  9. Increase Civilian Involvement in Police Decision Making 10. Improve Officer Supervision

How will Joe Panik do for the Giants in 2015? - McCovey Chronicles

http://m.mlb.com/video/?content_id=36820485&topic_id=6479266
Panik's two-run homer


My guess is Mr. panik will do pretty well for the Giants this year. A HR yesterday, on a pitch it looked like he just slapped at and did not get all of, gives a glimpse of the power that I believe will come from his bat later in his career. Joe is now at 3 HR's this spring, tied for the team lead with Brandon Belt.

I love this observation from McCovey Chronicles about Panik because I think it cuts to the heart of what hitting is all about:

A lack of power usually means a player who can't turn a superior eye into gaudy walk totals. Major league pitchers generally have the ability to challenge hitters, partially negating the talents of even the most disciplined hitters if there isn't the threat of a double behind it.

Note: this is what I think some in the SABR crowd have difficulty quantifying and projecting in hitters, JMO .

BTW: I like the recent surge by Daniel Carbonell lately ( .316 BA ) like Matt Duffy, he is going to make the decision to send him out a lot tougher on Bruce Bochy and the staff.

from McCovey Chronicles:
How will Joe Panik do for the Giants in 2015? - McCovey Chronicles:

The projection systems, as well as analysts/scouts like Keith Law, aren't quite as impressed with Panik. 

 Steamer: .255/.305/.337
 ZiPS: .264/.316/.344
 PECOTA: .257/.307/.333 

These systems don't hate you, your favorite sports team, or America. Probably not. They're emotionless, barely sentient spreadsheets. They suck up the minor league numbers, compare them against players who had similar numbers in the past, and spit out major league projections based on what those other players did. History tells us that Panik probably isn't going to hit for enough average or power to be anything close to an above-average hitter. Not yet. All of those systems suggest that he'll have enough defense and baserunning grit to make up for it, but don't expect a repeat of last year's .305 batting average. 

Those disappointing projections are based on a couple of things: Panik had a .343 batting average on balls in play, which is higher than the typical player (while not obscenely so), and he has never hit for a lot of power, even doubles power, in the minors. 

A lack of power usually means a player who can't turn a superior eye into gaudy walk totals. Major league pitchers generally have the ability to challenge hitters, partially negating the talents of even the most disciplined hitters if there isn't the threat of a double behind it.

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Fastball-changeup interplay featuring Jacob deGrom - Beyond the Box Score

I remember deGrom just mowing down the Giants one game last year and now, thanks to the latest whiz-bang technology and sabermetrics, I can see why both visually and graphically. Great stuff.

from Beyond the Box Score:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/3/27/8297039/fastball-changeup-interplay-with-jacob-degrom-mets-mlb-pitchfx

One element of the fastball-changeup interplay is the velocity difference. deGrom's velocity difference between his four-seam fastball and changeup according to Baseball Savant's numbers: 9.7. It's 9.8 by Brooks' numbers. deGrom has the velocity difference covered.

Another element is the release point. If hitters can tell which pitch is coming based on where the release point is, then there won't be much deception. deGrom has the release point stuff covered. Here is a Tableau screenshot of deGrom's average release points for his four-seam fastball, sinker, and changeup.

All three of them are basically on top of each other. So, when deGrom is at that release point, the hitter can't tell if it will be a fastball or a changeup. deGrom has the deception part covered.

Overall, deGrom has the fastball-changeup interplay covered. He throws them from the same release point and can locate each pitch in the same place, but the velocity differential and vertical movement appear to play havoc with opposing hitters. I would imagine the deception plays a role in his changeup's markedly higher swing rate compared to other right-handed pitchers' changeups. deGrom's curve might be the better pitch in terms of making hitters miss when they actually swing, but his changeup has the highest whiff rate of his whole arsenal. The fastball-changeup interplay can make an unremarkable pitch on its own into something rather remarkable.

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The Rays Changup Revolution

Whether it's defensive shifts, locking up key players like Longoria to long-term deals before they get to arbitration, conditioning pitchers and here with innovative and unique pitching strategies, the Rays have been a franchise noted for their ability to effectively cut against the grain. They seem to do it not just for the sake of doing it, or out of blind necessity, but simply because it works.  

In my opinion, this was part of the culture that flourished under Joe Maddon, and he gets a large part of the credit. Hopefully, it is not lost with Maddons move to the Cubs.

Baseball Prospectus | Overthinking It: The Rays' Changeup Revolution

				Baseball Prospectus | Overthinking It: The Rays' Changeu... There are certain rules about changeup usage. The Rays, unsurprisingly, aren't beholden to those rules.
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The Rays' Changeup Revolution

by Ben Lindbergh

“The game evolves constantly,” Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey tells me on a Saturday afternoon at Yankee Stadium, after wrapping up a bullpen session an hour before first pitch. Evolution in baseball works a lot like it does in real life: traits that confer a competitive advantage tend to be passed on. But before a new approach is adopted around the league, Hickey says, “someone’s going to have to be successful doing it.”

The Rays are often that someone. If the Rays have an identity—aside from their status as a team that doesn’t draw, locked into a lease that never expires—it’s that they do things differently. Driven by their need to make the most of their limited resources and the creativity of their front office and field staff, the Rays under General Manager Andrew Friedman and manager Joe Maddon have authored a long list of innovations. Shifting more aggressively than almost any other team. Giving defensive specialist Jose Molina a starting job for the first time at age 37. Opening an academy in Brazil. Refusing to sign free agent starters (before Roberto Hernandez). And so on.

One minor innovation Maddon has made hasn’t received much mainstream attention: the manager’s tendency to stack his lineup with same-handed hitters against certain starters, intentionally surrendering the platoon advantage that most teams seek. Dubbed the “The Danks Theory” by Tommy Rancel of DRaysBay, who picked up on it after it was employed against White Sox starter John Danks in 2010, Maddon’s unorthodox tactic is an attempt to deprive opposing pitchers of their nastiest stuff. He’s broken it out against pitchers who throw one of their best offerings almost exclusively to batters who don’t hit from the same side, among them Danks, Mike Mussina, Dallas Braden, Shaun Marcum, Jered Weaver, and Jon Lester. Combat selected righties with righties and selected lefties with lefties, Maddon’s thinking goes, and what you lose in platoon advantage, you more than make up for by eliminating one or more of a pitcher’s most effective options from his arsenal.

More often than not, the Danks Theory is put to the test against starters with good changeups. There’s a reason for that. Traditionally, changeups have been thrown much more often to opposite-handed hitters. “I can remember myself as a minor league pitcher, that was unheard of,” says Hickey, who spent seven seasons in the White Sox, Dodgers, and Astros systems in the 1980s. “You didn’t throw a changeup as a right-handed pitcher to a right-handed hitter.”

The pitchers whom the Rays have deemed susceptible to the Danks Theory still pitch like Hickey did three decades ago; the left-handed Lester, for example, has thrown 93.8 percent of his changeups to right-handed batters this season. But if other teams were to try the Danks Theory, they’d have a hard time turning it against its creators. Most of Tampa’s changeup artists don’t pitch like Lester. Instead, they’re making what Hickey says was once a “taboo kind of pitch”—the right-on-right or left-on-left changeup—into a conventional weapon.

***

Speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference last March, Bill James said, “A lot of baseball’s conventional wisdom starts to sound silly when you become 13.” That may be true of many conventional baseball beliefs: closer usage, lineup construction, sacrifice bunts and the intentional base on balls. But while baseball’s loose ban on same-sided changeups is certainly conventional, it’s not entirely unwise. The theory behind it has some stats to support it.

As Dave Allen noted in a 2010 study on pitch-type platoon splits, if a pitcher releases his changeup with roughly the same initial trajectory as his fastball and aims it around the middle of the zone, “the pitch will end up down and away to the opposite-handed batter and down and in to the same-handed batter. All else being equal a down-and-away pitch is much better than a down-and-in pitch.”

Matt Moore, one of the relatively few Rays who throws almost all of his changeups to opposite-handed hitters, concurs. “When you think of lefties, they like to drop the head, it’s more of a sweepy swing,” says the southpaw starter. “The bottom of the zone, for lefties, it’s such a sweet spot. For me, typically where [the changeup] is going to go is down and in to a lefty, down and away to a righty.” Rays catcher Jose Lobaton, who likes the pitch, says, “The only problem people say with the changeup is that righties against righties, if you hang it, they’re going to hit it pretty good. With some lefties…when they hang it they can hit a popup, righties can hit it better. They say the ball moves inside to them.” If you make a mistake, changeups to same-sided hitters can be bad news.

***

According to Max Marchi’s research, the so-called “straight change” shows a reverse platoon effect: it’s more effective against batters who hit from the opposite side. But what Max called the “power change”—a harder one “with significant lateral movement,” or “movement similar to the fastball”—is platoon neutral: it works well against both righties and lefties.

Despite Max’s study (and others with similar conclusions), there hasn’t been any league-wide movement toward throwing same-sided changeups, at least since the start of the PITCHf/x era.

Year	Same_Side	Opp_Side	Changeups	Same_Side_Pct
2008	20077	60005	80082	0.2507
2009	22110	62594	84704	0.261
2010	23295	64830	88125	0.2643
2011	19440	59758	79198	0.2455
2012	16129	58783	74912	0.2153
2013	8908	30381	39289	0.2267

Crawford makes it look easy as usual

http://m.mlb.com/sf/video/topic/69972428/v57184983/ladsf-crawford-makes-a-great-play-to-turn-two/?c_id=sf

3/29/15: Brandon Crawford fields a tough grounder and makes a great play to start a 6-4-3 double play

"The great ones make it look easy..." and this was far from an easy play. Crawford just makes 'em look too easy, too routine. He's going to have to start doing back-flips when he goes out to his position or something, to become more appreciated. 

Other than that, Matt Duffy continues to make a strong case to stay on the roster and pushing Adrianza or perhaps Arias off. Both of the A-teamers are out of options and Arias has a decent sized contract, but neither one will slip through waivers unclaimed IMO. Adrianza appears to be wilting under the pressure of competition from Duffy. 

Justin Maxwell is starting to make the case to replace the power void in LF due to the loss of Michael Morse. First, he will likely start in RF due to the Pence injury, but once Pence gets back, perhaps a more permanent slot in LF. Blanco returns to his back-up at every OF position role. 

Belt continues to rake and there is some pressure on him to provide more power. His average is up. Posey is Posey and Pence will be Pence, but Belt needs to add more this season. 

McGehee seems to be scuffling a bit. I wouldn't mind seeing more out of him at this point. The McGehee v. Sandoval stat watch/comparison will be fully operational from Day One with Pablo continuing to open mouth and insert foot. 

I don't see why it was bad for the Giants front-office to admonish Pablo about his weight but it's OK for David Ortiz to do so. Move on Pablo, move on. You're a Red Sox now, trust me, we get it. You will fit in nicely there. 

Andrew Susac among Giants' spring cuts Sunday : Fantasy News

Susac is a bit of a surprise. He may be the better C at this moment, but he has options and Sanchez does not. And his name is not Kris Bryant, so he doesn't have Scott Boras squealing like a spoiled child on his behalf.


from CBS Sports:
Andrew Susac among Giants' spring cuts Sunday : Fantasy News:

by R.J. White | CBSSports.com Sun, 29 Mar 2015 1:04 PM ET The Giants optioned catcher Andrew Susac, first baseman Adam Duvall, pitcher Hunter Strickland and outfielders Gary Brown and Juan Perez to Triple-A Sacramento Sunday. Susac was the favorite to open the season as the team's No. 2 catcher behind Buster Posey, but Hector Sanchez won the competition, leaving Susac to open the season as the team's starter in Triple-A. The Giants also reassigned catcher Guillermo Quiroz, second baseman Brandon Hicks and pitchers Brett Bochy, Steven Okert and Juan Gutierrez to minor-league camp.

'via Blog this'


The same dynamic may play out if it comes down to Matt Duffy v. Ehire Adrianza. Duffy is clearly out-performing, but could find himself starting the season in AAA.

Okert is a bit of a surprise, but there probably will not be enough spots for him to pitch in the early months of the season, so he is better off starting the season in AAA. Let some arms tire or break down and Okert is just a phone call and a bus ride away.

Strickland proves that HR are not just another hit, especially to relief pitchers since they are more often  the 2 and 3 run variety, rather than empty base HR's. He needs to either vary his pitches or location and add some deception to his delivery to keep guys from teeing off on him. His delivery seems too "paint by the numbers" and hitters seem to read it easily. That more than tipping his pitches, seems to be the problem for Strickland, IMO. He has an "easy read" maximum comfort delivery and paradoxically, his control numbers work against him. He needs a little of the "Ryne Duren" story to him.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryne_Duren

1. Ryne Duren

   Baseball player
2. Rinold George "Ryne" Duren was an American relief pitcher in Major League Baseball. He was known for the combination of his blazing fastball and his very poor vision. With his thick coke bottle glasses, few batters dared to dig in against Duren. Wikipedia

Giants' top prospects sent out on first day of camp cuts | CSN Bay Area

Giants Spring Training

They are the Giants future, but the future ain't now. I liked what I saw of Williamson and I can see why many like Arroyo and some believe he will be Joe Panik 2.0, smewhat under-appreciated and under-rated, but effective. He is a couple of years off.

from CSN Bay Area:
Giants' top prospects sent out on first day of camp cuts | CSN Bay Area:

Eleven players were reassigned to minor league camp, where games start this week: Christian Arroyo, Ty Blach, Kyle Crick, Aramis Garcia, Cory Gearrin, Adalberto Mejia, Ty Ross, Chris Stratton, Carlos Triunfel, Kelby Tomlinson and Mac Williamson. Cuban outfielder Daniel Carbonell was optioned to Double-A Richmond and right-handers Joan Gregorio and Derek Law were optioned to Single-A San Jose.  

The group includes three first-round picks, all of whom had their moments during a month in big league camp. Crick was pitching well until giving up five runs Monday, and Stratton impressed coaches with his poise and raw stuff. Arroyo got off to a hot start at the plate and showed the hit tool that scouts love.

Williamson showed that he's fully healthy after losing a season to Tommy John surgery, and he had two triples and a double while going 5 for 15 and playing strong defense in right field. Coaches believe Williamson, who likely will begin the season in Double-A, could move quickly. 

Law is also coming back from Tommy John surgery and has been throwing bullpen sessions.

Blach had a rough start to the spring but pitched three strong relief innings in his final outing. Garcia and Ross are young catchers who were in camp for the first time, but not the last. Gearrin, a former Atlanta Brave, never got in a game because of an injury. Mejia pitched well and looked unfazed by facing big league hitters, but the organization's top left-handed prospect will begin the season on a 50-game suspension for use of a banned substance. Triunfel and Carbonell both homered during Cactus League action, Tomlinson showed that he's one of the fastest players in the organization, and Gregorio -- who was added to the 40-man roster in the offseason -- had five scoreless outings. "

'via Blog this'

Arroyo and Williamson would be the only two position players in the Prospect Top Ten. I would put Carbonell at #15 and Aramis Garcia at #12, but Carbonell got more opportunities, so they want / need him before they need another catcher.

Other than possibly Okert, I can't see any pitchers cracking the Opening Day roster and he may be blocked by the Giants bullpen depth, Law to Single-A is a concern coming off Tommy John.  Blach got some looks, but he still got hit pretty good in spots, as expected. Hopefully, Stratton picks up the pace if they need a starter,

My Top Ten:

1. Kyle Crick RHP
2. Tyler Beede RHP
3. Keury Mella RHP
4. Adalberto Mejia LHP ( 50 game suspension )
5. Clayton Blackburn RHP
6. Christian Arroyo SS
7. Ty Blach LHP
8. Steven Okert LHP
9. Chris Stratton
10. Mac Williamson ( could probably go higher on him, the time lost to injury hurt his status )
11. Luis Ysla LHP
12. Aramis Garcia C
13. Joan Gregorio RHP
14. Michael Santos RHP ( 19 year old, but could move fast )
15. Daniel Carbonell CF ( if Pagan goes down and stays down and Giants flirt with .500 or worse...)

After #15, it's guys that I'm guessing on, and you're not going to see for a while anyway. Heck, maybe after #10. Giants need Carbonell to move fast as well. He showed some signs here and there, but he showed more why he's there than here, I suppose.

I'm ready for the real games to start and we have two weeks left. Who made this schedule anyway?

Let's PLAY BALL!!!

Best Hitting Articles of All-Time (BHAAT - JMO)

NYT: Hitting a Baseball: So Much to Do, So Little Time (from March 27,1994) 

THE SCIENCE OF THE SWING - Dr. Robert Adair, Yale University

Bad News: Angel Pagan's balky back barking again

Barely replacing Pablo...going to miss Morse even more...lethargic spring offense....Timmy's got a pain in the neck....Bumgarner's arm is going to fall off....and now this!!

Just another day in paradise.

from Mercurynews.com
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/giants/2015/03/19/pagan-getting-injection-stiff-back-least-three-days/

Outfielder Angel Pagan, who already has missed the last several days of spring training, is receiving an injection Thursday for lower back stiffness and will miss at least the next three days of camp.

Pagan, who declared upon his arrival at spring training that he was completely healthy and ready to play the full season, hasn't played in a spring game since Saturday night. He has played in just seven spring games and is hitting .125 (2 for 16).      

Manager Bruce Bochy said Pagan is feeling slightly better and that the stiffness Pagan is feeling is not in the same place as where he had surgery to relieve a bulging disk late last season.

Bochy said Travis Ishikawa will start receiving more time in left field in Pagan's absence, with Gregor Blanco moving to center."

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Term of the Day: Confirmation Bias / Normalcy Bias

Confirmation Bias Definition | Investopedia

A psychological phenomenon that explains why people tend to seek out information that confirms their existing opinions and overlook or ignore information that refutes their beliefs. Confirmation bias occurs when people filter out potentially useful facts and opinions that don’t coincide with their preconceived notions. It affects perceptions and decision making in all aspects of our lives and can cause us to make less-than-optimal choices. Seeking out people and publications with different opinions than our own can help us overcome confirmation bias and make better-informed decisions. http://www.web2pointsomething.org/2011/12/19/feature-article-confirmation-bias-in-the-internet-age/ FEATURE ARTICLE: CONFIRMATION BIAS IN THE INTERNET AGE Posted by: Angeladu | | December 19, 2011 Confirmation Bias refers to “a type of selective thinking whereby one tends to notice and look for what confirms ones beliefs, and to ignore, not look for,  or undervalue the relevance of what contradicts ones’ beliefs. Numerous studies have demonstrated that people generally give an excessive amount of value to confirmatory information, that is, to positive or supportive data”. In fact… “A study done at Ohio State in 2009 showed that participants spent 36 percent more time reading articles that agreed with their point of view than those that challenged their beliefs and many didn’t read any opposing view articles at all”.    In Stephen Mills’s article “The Modern Decline in Independent Thinking“, he discusses how the internet influences individuals’ thinking. In particular, Stephen mentions that groupthink causes the problem of confirmation bias, which eliminates the effectiveness of independent thinking. The internet provides a virtual world that allows individuals to share their opinions regardless of the color, race or creed. That is to say, the internet is supposed to stand for freedom of speech. Nevertheless, if people participate in a networked community, their ability of thinking will be diminished.    Accroding to Stephen, he discovers “groupthink inhibits alternatives, minimizes conflict, and enforces conformity. The need to maintain consistency will push you to continue with the same position once it is articulated”. Is it true that groupthink has such power? Let me give you an example… The reason why the internet appeals to us is because we find ideas that resonate with our own thoughts. Suppose you think social media such as Facebook.com fosters transnational communication. And you find a discussion board online which has an identical point of view. Of course, you will be happy to join the group and continue the discussion. As the group becomes larger, the credibility of the initial topic increases. Imagine a random person who is not sure whether social media can develop worldwide communication or not. But he or she happens to open your webpage. A good chance is that the person makes up his or mind to become one of your followers.  Stephen explains this phenomenon in his article, “information availability means we inevitably will suffer from confirmation bias.  We are not becoming more objective and open minded, we are becoming more committed to our existing beliefs”.    I am not sure this whole idea-following thing is working. In the end, Stephen gives us some suggestions about how to become an independent thinker. Let us hear from him… 1. “You have to get out of all the polarizing debates and groups and away from your fellow devotees and do something that doesn’t feel natural”. 2. “You have to do some hard thinking primarily by yourself; without your standard arguments ready and waiting”. 3. “As long as you understand both the power and danger of groups and act accordingly, you can enjoy the benefits and mitigate the dangers of this new connected world.  The only thing have to gain is your own independent mind”. Here is what I recommend…

			Confirmation Bias Definition | Investopedia A psychological phenomenon that explains why people tend to seek out information that confirms their existing opinions and overlook or ignore informati...
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The Internet is the greatest detractor to serious thinking since the invention of television”.

- Leo Chalupa, Neurobiologist, University of California, Davis

Is the Internet Changing the Way You think? The Net’s Impact on Our Minds andFuture. Edited by John Brokman. (New York: Harper Perennial, 2011).

   Internet has already become an inevitable part of our life. I think the best advantage that we take from the internet is efficiency. The internet saves us a lot of time in finding things. Say a student wants to write an essay about earthquake. She opens Google.com and types in the word earthquake. Less than one second, the internet offers her 167,000,000 results that relate to the earthquake topic. Then, what happens next? Click, click, click… She gets what she wants by simply controlling her mouse instead of spending hours in a library. I believe most of us have the same experience in our life. It is just so convenient that we search whatever we want to know on the internet. However, my question is do you take whatever appears on the internet for granted? or, do you judge the credibility of any arguments made on the internet?

   

--

And another one of the big problems that we are facing is something called "normalcy bias".  The following is how Wikipedia defines it...

The normalcy bias, or normality bias, refers to a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred then it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.