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Thursday, May 28, 2015

MLB could alter strike zone as response to declining offense - Yahoo Sports


The Royals' Nori Aoki swings through a low pitch. (AP)
The Royals' Nori Aoki swings through a low pitch. (AP)

At long last, a tacit acknowledgement that the introduction of Questec and the subsequent narrowing and distorting of  the strike-zone as it was back then, was one of the leading factors to the performance enhancement of offensive numbers in the early 2000's ( a pet theory of mine ).

They finally acknowledge the concept of "unintended consequences". You can't make that kind of fundamental change to the way the game is played on a pitch to pitch basis and not expect serious ramifications. And they got 'em. Oh yes they did.


  • There was a reason Curt Schilling took a bat to one of the early versions of Questec in the D-Backs dugout.
  • There was a reason that Bonds broke McGwire's HR record the first year of Questec's implementation.


  • The handwriting was on the wall. "The times they are a-changin'." (click for musical interlude)

    In the social sciencesunintended consequences (sometimes unanticipated consequences or unforeseen consequences) are outcomes that are not the ones foreseen and intended by a purposeful action. The term was popularised in the twentieth century by American sociologist Robert K. Merton.[1]

    Unintended consequences can be grouped into three types:
    • Unexpected benefit: A positive, unexpected benefit (also referred to as luckserendipity or a windfall).
    • Unexpected drawback: A negative, unexpected detriment occurring in addition to the desired effect of the policy (e.g., while irrigationschemes provide people with water for agriculture, they can increase waterborne diseases that have devastating health effects, such as schistosomiasis).
    • Perverse result: A perverse effect contrary to what was originally intended (when an intended solution makes a problem worse). This is sometimes referred to as 'backfire'.


    Concern around baseball about the strike zone filtered down to the MLB's Playing Rules Committee, which must formally adopt a rules change before it's implemented. The committee will pay close attention to the size of the strike zone in 2015 with an eye on change as early as 2016 after studies showed it has expanded significantly since 2009, coinciding with a precipitous dip in run scoring. Of particular concern, sources said, is the low strike, a scourge not only because it has stretched beyond the zone's boundaries but is considered a significantly more difficult pitch to hit.
    Runs per game fell to 4.07 in 2014, the lowest mark since 1981 and the 13th fewest since World War II, and studies from The Hardball Times' Jon Roegele and Florida professor Brian Mills pegged the low strike as a significant culprit.
    Since 2009, the average size of the called strike zone has jumped from 435 square inches to 475 square inches, according to Roegele's research. The results: Pitchers are throwing more in the lower part of the zone, and hitters are swinging at an increased rate, knowing the tough-to-drive pitches will be called strikes.
    Roegele's study estimated 31 percent of the offensive drought could be attributed to the strike zone while Mills estimated it's between 24 percent and 41 percent. After seeing a strong correlation among the size of the strike zone, all-time-high strikeout rates and historically low walk rates, members of the committee now are fairly certain the relationship is causative, too, and seem primed to do something about it.
    The problem, sources said, stems from technological leaps that caused unintended consequences. In 1996, when the league last changed the strike zone to extend it from the top of the knees to the bottom, beneath the hollow of the kneecap, it did so to encourage umpires to call knee-level strikes. The lower end of the zone, in practice, was about three-quarters of the way down the thigh, so the idea was that by adjusting the eye levels of umpires to look lower, the result would be a more traditional strike zone.
    Then along came Questec, the computerized pitch-tracking system, followed by Zone Evaluation, the current version tied in to MLB's PITCHf/x system. With a tremendous degree of accuracy – especially in recent years – the systems tracked textbook balls and strikes, and the home-plate umpires' performances were graded on a nightly basis. Over time, not only did umpires' strike zones move down to the knees, they went to the hollow and even a smidge below.
    "I don't think the Playing Rules Committee at the time of the last change ever expected that the umpires would call strikes at the hollow of the knee," said Mets general manager Sandy Alderson, the current chairman of the committee. "To their credit, the umpires now are."

    I remember being rather active on one of the message forums of one of the pitching gurus of the day back in the late 1990's - early 2000's (it was SETPRO, Paul Nyman's excellent site) and one of the hitting guys blurbed out that it seemed as if Barry Bonds was having trouble adjusting to the new and improved strike-zone that QUESTEC had wrought. My jaw dropped when I read it because the guy was extremely knowledgeable about hitting mechanics, in my opinion, but I wrote back that the new zone was made to order for Barry and that once the weather heated up and he warmed up there would be no way for pitchers to pitch to him anymore. That proved to be the case, because after a slow April of that year (2001) he went on a torrid pace that culminated in the new HR record and pitchers found a way to pitch around Barry by intentionally walking him at a record pace from then on out.

    from baseball-almanac.com
    http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/hittinglogs.php?p=bondsba01&y=2001

    Barry Bonds 2001 Game by Game Batting Logs

    Barry Bonds appeared in 153 Major League games during the 2001 regular season. The chart below is a comprehensive analysis of the games Bonds appeared in, specifically relating to his 2001 hitting statistics. Notes: The Date / Box field has a link to the box score from the game being described. If the Date is followed by an asterisk (*), Bonds started during that game at the first position listed in the Position(s) column. Cumulative monthly totals are provided where applicable.

    "I like to be against the odds. I'm not afraid to be lonely at the top. With me, it's just the satisfaction of the game. Just performance." - Barry Bonds [Barry Bonds Quotes]
    Barry Bonds 2001 Game by Game Batting LogsIn Chronological Order / Barry Bonds Stats
    04-02-2001 *vs Padres3110011210000.333.6001.333lf
    04-04-2001 *vs Padres4111000001100.286.500.857lf
    04-05-2001 *vs Padres4110000000000.273.429.636lf
    04-06-2001 *at Dodgers4000000002000.200.333.467lf
    04-07-2001 *at Dodgers4000000000000.158.273.368lf
    04-08-2001 *at Dodgers5000000002000.125.222.292lf
    04-10-2001 *at Padres5000000001000.103.188.241lf
    04-12-2001 *at Padres3110011100000.125.222.344lf
    04-13-2001 *at Brewers3121013100001.171.268.486lf
    04-14-2001 *at Brewers4121013101000.205.304.590lf
    04-15-2001 *at Brewers3110011100000.214.320.643lf
    04-17-2001 *vs Dodgers4110012001000.217.315.674lf
    04-18-2001 *vs Dodgers4110011001000.220.310.700lf
    04-19-2001 *vs Dodgers3010000001000.226.311.679lf
    04-20-2001 *vs Brewers3110012111000.232.323.714lf
    04-21-2001vs Brewers1000000001000.228.318.702ph
    04-22-2001 *vs Brewers2000000210000.220.329.678lf
    04-24-2001 *vs Reds2110012200000.230.351.721lf
    04-25-2001 *vs Reds4011002100000.231.354.708lf
    04-26-2001 *vs Reds4121013101000.246.369.754lf
    04-27-2001 *vs Cubs2000000001100.239.368.732lf
    04-29-2001 *vs Cubs4110011001000.240.363.747lf
     April 2001 Totals
    75131850112213315201.240.363.747-
    05-01-2001 *at Pirates1200000401000.237.385.737lf
    05-02-2001 *at Pirates5110012001000.235.376.741lf
    05-03-2001 *at Pirates3130012200000.262.406.786lf
    05-04-2001 *at Phillies2110012201000.267.418.814lf
    05-05-2001 *at Phillies3100000102100.258.417.787lf
    05-06-2001at Phillies1000000001000.256.414.778ph
    05-07-2001 *vs Expos2120001200000.272.433.783lf
    05-08-2001 *vs Expos2100000200000.266.435.766lf
    05-09-2001 *vs Expos3000000003000.258.425.742lf
    05-11-2001 *vs Mets3210011200000.260.432.760lf
    05-12-2001 *vs Mets3222002101000.272.441.777lf
    05-13-2001 *vs Mets4011001001000.271.436.766lf
    05-15-2001 *at Marlins4111001102000.270.434.757lf
    05-16-2001 *at Marlins4010000000000.270.430.739lf
    05-17-2001 *at Marlins3110012101000.271.431.754lf
    05-18-2001 *at Braves3110011111000.273.433.769lf
    05-19-2001 *at Braves5341033001000.294.444.849lf
    05-20-2001 *at Braves2220022200000.305.458.898lf
    05-21-2001 *at Diamondbacks4110011000000.303.453.902lf
    05-22-2001 *at Diamondbacks3120012210000.311.463.919lf
    05-23-2001 *at Diamondbacks4020001001000.317.464.906lf
    05-24-2001 *vs Rockies3210011101000.317.464.915lf
    05-25-2001 *vs Rockies2110000200000.319.471.910lf
    05-27-2001 *vs Rockies3110012002100.320.471.918lf
    05-28-2001 *vs Diamondbacks4000000103000.311.464.894lf
    05-29-2001 *vs Diamondbacks5000000331000.301.461.865lf
    05-30-2001 *vs Diamondbacks3220023100000.308.466.899lf
     May 2001 Totals
    84283150173031524200.369.5471.036-
    06-01-2001 *at Rockies2310012320000.311.474.913lf
    06-02-2001 *at Rockies3000000202000.305.472.896lf
    06-03-2001 *at Rockies3000000000000.299.466.880lf
    06-04-2001 *vs Padres2120012110001.308.471.899lf
    06-05-2001 *vs Padres3320012201000.314.478.913lf
    06-07-2001 *vs Padres4121012101000.318.481.926lf
    06-08-2001 *at Athletics2000000200000.315.481.916dh
    06-09-2001 *at Athletics3000000212000.309.480.901dh
    06-10-2001 *at Athletics3010000100000.310.480.891lf
    06-12-2001 *vs Angels4120011000000.314.480.899lf
    06-13-2001 *vs Angels4010000003000.313.477.885lf
    06-14-2001 *vs Angels3321011210000.318.483.903lf
    06-15-2001 *vs Athletics3230022100000.328.491.934lf
    06-16-2001 *vs Athletics2000000100000.325.489.925lf
    06-17-2001 *vs Athletics3000000101000.320.485.911lf
    06-19-2001 *at Padres5130011210000.327.491.918lf
    06-20-2001 *at Padres4110013110000.325.489.920lf
    06-22-2001 *at Cardinals2200000311000.322.491.911lf
    06-23-2001 *at Cardinals3210012211000.323.493.917lf
    06-24-2001 *at Cardinals4000000100000.317.488.900lf
    06-25-2001 *vs Dodgers2100000200000.314.488.892lf
    06-26-2001 *vs Dodgers4000000102000.308.484.877lf
    06-27-2001 *vs Dodgers5011001001000.306.479.866lf
    06-29-2001 *vs Cardinals1100000300000.305.483.863lf
     June 2001 Totals
    74222230111934915001.297.514.784-
    07-01-2001 *vs Cardinals1011000300000.308.489.868lf
    07-02-2001 *at Dodgers4000000000000.303.483.853lf
    07-03-2001 *at Dodgers3000000210000.299.482.842lf
    07-04-2001 *at Dodgers4010000000100.298.481.833lf
    07-05-2001 *at Dodgers3110000101100.298.482.827lf
    07-06-2001 *vs Brewers4122000100000.302.484.829lf
    07-07-2001 *vs Brewers2110001100000.303.486.827lf
    07-08-2001 *vs Brewers5022001220000.305.487.826lf
    07-12-2001 *at Mariners5120011003000.307.486.830dh
    07-13-2001 *at Mariners5010001000000.305.482.818lf
    07-14-2001 *at Mariners4000000000000.300.477.806dh
    07-15-2001 *at Rangers4100000101000.296.473.794lf
    07-16-2001 *at Rangers1000000300000.295.476.791dh
    07-17-2001 *at Rangers2211000200000.296.479.793dh
    07-18-2001 *vs Rockies3220023001000.300.481.813lf
    07-19-2001 *vs Rockies2000000311000.298.482.807lf
    07-20-2001 *vs Diamondbacks2000000200000.296.482.801lf
    07-21-2001 *vs Diamondbacks4000000001000.292.477.790lf
    07-22-2001 *vs Diamondbacks3000000000000.289.474.782lf
    07-23-2001 *at Rockies3010000100000.290.474.778lf
    07-24-2001 *at Rockies3111000100000.290.474.777lf
    07-25-2001at Rockies1000000000000.289.473.774ph
    07-26-2001 *at Diamondbacks4320025100000.292.475.790lf
    07-27-2001 *at Diamondbacks3231011200000.299.481.805lf
    07-28-2001 *at Diamondbacks3120100211000.302.485.810lf
    07-29-2001 *at Diamondbacks4011001001000.302.483.806lf
    07-31-2001 *vs Pirates4121001201000.304.485.806lf
     July 2001 Totals
    86172610161530511200.302.492.651-
    08-01-2001 *vs Pirates4121011000000.307.485.814lf
    08-03-2001 *vs Phillies2100000100100.305.485.809lf
    08-04-2001 *vs Phillies2110012101000.306.487.817lf
    08-05-2001 *vs Phillies4021002112000.308.488.816lf
    08-07-2001 *at Reds5131013100000.313.490.824lf
    08-08-2001 *at Reds3100000213000.310.489.817lf
    08-09-2001 *at Reds5110011000000.308.486.817lf
    08-11-2001 *at Cubs4110013102000.307.485.819lf
    08-12-2001 *at Cubs4011000102000.307.484.815lf
    08-14-2001 *vs Marlins2210014310000.308.488.822lf
    08-15-2001 *vs Marlins4000000000000.304.484.813lf
    08-16-2001 *vs Marlins3220024101000.307.486.828lf
    08-17-2001 *vs Braves4010000001000.307.484.822lf
    08-18-2001 *vs Braves3120011100000.310.486.829lf
    08-19-2001 *vs Braves2100000210000.308.486.824lf
    08-21-2001 *at Expos2100000301000.306.487.820lf
    08-22-2001 *at Expos2110000200000.307.489.818lf
    08-23-2001at Expos1110011000000.309.490.827ph,lf
    08-24-2001 *at Mets3010000101000.310.490.823lf
    08-25-2001 *at Mets3110000201000.310.491.819lf
    08-26-2001 *at Mets3110101100000.310.491.820lf
    08-27-2001 *at Mets4231011100000.314.494.830lf
    08-28-2001 *at Diamondbacks2000000200000.313.494.826lf
    08-29-2001 *at Diamondbacks3010000111000.313.494.822lf
    08-30-2001 *at Diamondbacks2010000300000.314.497.820lf
    08-31-2001 *vs Rockies4110012001000.313.495.822lf
     August 2001 Totals
    80212851122631517100.350.536.888-
    09-01-2001vs Rockies0000000110000.313.496.822lf
    09-02-2001 *vs Rockies3000000111000.311.495.816lf
    09-03-2001 *vs Rockies4110011001000.310.493.818lf
    09-04-2001 *vs Diamondbacks2220011200000.314.496.826lf
    09-05-2001 *vs Diamondbacks2000000101000.312.496.822lf
    09-06-2001 *vs Diamondbacks4210011100000.312.495.824lf
    09-07-2001 *at Rockies3031001300000.317.500.827lf
    09-08-2001 *at Rockies5110000001000.315.497.820lf
    09-09-2001 *at Rockies5330035101000.319.499.838lf
    09-18-2001 *vs Astros3000000101000.316.497.833lf
    09-19-2001 *vs Astros3010000100000.316.497.829lf
    09-20-2001 *vs Astros3121013201000.319.500.837lf
    09-21-2001 *at Padres3010001100000.319.500.834lf
    09-22-2001 *at Padres4111000002000.318.498.831lf
    09-23-2001 *at Padres4320022100000.320.499.841lf
    09-24-2001 *at Dodgers3110011210000.320.500.844lf
    09-25-2001 *at Dodgers3000000200000.318.499.839lf
    09-26-2001 *at Dodgers2110000310000.319.502.837lf
    09-28-2001 *vs Padres3121013201000.321.504.845lf
    09-29-2001 *vs Padres3110011100000.321.504.848lf
    09-30-2001 *vs Padres1000000200100.320.505.846lf
     September 2001 Totals
    63182340122028410100.365.5651.000-
    10-02-2001 *at Astros2110000210100.321.508.845lf
    10-03-2001 *at Astros2310001311000.322.510.843lf
    10-04-2001 *at Astros2210011310000.323.512.848lf
    10-05-2001 *vs Dodgers3320022210000.325.514.860lf
    10-06-2001vs Dodgers1010000000000.326.515.860ph
    10-07-2001 *vs Dodgers4120011000000.328.515.863lf
     October 2001 Totals
    1410800451041100.571.7601.429-
     2001 Yearly Totals476129156322731371773593902.328.515.863-
    Barry Bonds 2001 Game by Game Batting Logs






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