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Monday, May 18, 2015

MLB Mock Draft 2015: Version 1.0 - BaseballAmerica.com

No, please NO!!! I reject the premise and the logic behind this projected pick.

from baseballamerica.com
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mlb-mock-draft-2015-version-1-0/

18. GiantsSan Francisco needs to replenish its pitching stable, and its front office has the stability (and three World Series rings) to take chances on injured arms. How else could the Giants get top-of-the-draft upside while picking 18th?Selection: Brady Aiken, lhp, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla.

The Giants haven't traditionally gone for the high-ceiling HS arms early in the draft, preferring instead to go for the high-floor/low-ceiling college pitcher. They have recently added pitching via trade and / or  free agency. Past exceptions were Bumgarner and/Tim Alderson in 2007, Zach Wheeler in 2009, and Kyle Crick in 2011,

I can see them going the HS arm / bat route with the compensation pick and you wait there for a guy you projected higher to fall to your spot, The only other ways to get top of the draft talent is to either finish last for a year or two or trade away a valuable piece before he goes free-agent on you.

So to answer the initial premise, "How else do the Giants get premium talent at bargain prices?", the answers are:
  • Be patient and wait for other teams to make mistakes of haste and expediency
  • finish last every once in a while
  • trade away value now, for potential value (and possible loss) later 
The Giants have shown an ability to keep the guys they want around and use up guys who walk and take the compensation round pick. In that spot you can roll the dice and feel like you're playing with house money a little bit. The slow and steady, patient approach doesn't make headlines or draw accolades the next day, -- heck I even turned my nose up a bit when they drafted a lesser known name like Madison Bumgarner some years back -- but it has been paying big dividends for the Giants,  

The "high-floor / low-ceiling" (lower risk/lower reward) approach may explain why they seemingly have not "developed" a super-star  from scratch, instead getting "ready made, mix and eat Cream of Wheat" Buster Posey early, after finishing at or near the basement, when he dropped to them in the 2008 draft, The "high-ceiling / low floor" (higher-risk/higher-reward) " guys are usually identified and gone before the successful teams have much of a shot at drafting them. The draft is designed to be the penalty that winning brings and the salve for a losing year.


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