Great analysis as always from Baseball America. You can argue that the odds show that scouts do their job well or at some level a self-fulfilling prophecy is at work. Obviously, those selected at the top are given every opportunity to either succeed or fail due to basic economics. Higher bonus, higher investment or sunk costs, the team is going to do everything they can to get some return on that investment. To whom much is given, much is expected....and all that.
from Baseball America:
| YOUR CHANCES . . . | |
| Thanks to exhaustive research over the 50-year life of the baseball draft by resident draft historian Allan Simpson, we now have a clear answer on the chances of a drafted player reaching the major leagues. Allan took into account 61,719 players drafted from 1965-2009 (ignoring 2010-14 because those players’ careers are still in development), and here’s what he came up with: If you are a drafted player of any kind, your chances of reaching the major leagues are 13.9%.Obviously, a player drafted in the first round has the greatest chance of reaching his goal, and here are the odds for the top 10 rounds (June, regular phase only). Predictably, a player’s chances decrease with every succeeding round: | |
| First round | 69.40% |
| First round supplemental | 56.70% |
| Second round | 47.00% |
| Third round | 37.00% |
| Fourth round | 31.40% |
| Fifth round | 29.80% |
| Sixth round | 25.40% |
| Seventh round | 23.00% |
| Eighth round | 19.20% |
| Ninth round | 18.90% |
| 10th round |
18.40%
|
You can see that in Rounds 1 and 2, the odds are roughly 50%. So those picks that were just made yesterday in Rounds 1 and 2, one will make it, one will fail.
In Round 3-5, the odds drop to roughly 33%, so of those three guys selected, one guy will hit, the rest you'll never hear about again professionally unless you follow minor league baseball.
In Rounds 6-10, the odds drop to about 20%, so of those five guys selected, one will hit, the other four will miss.
After that, the odds drop precipitously, into true lung-shot territory, probably 3-5% at best. so if one guys hits after Round Ten each year, the organization either does a good job scouting or they rely on the draft more than free-agents.
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