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Friday, August 21, 2015

To the Unheralded Ones - NL Rookie of the Year No Longer a Two-Horse Race | FanGraphs



Both the catch by Juan Perez, making a spot start in CF just up from AAA, and the FanGraphs article below, speculating on the chances of Matt Duffy and perhaps Chris Heston in the Rookie of the Year chase, demonstrate why the Giants have won three rings in the last five years. They get big-time contributions from a seemingly endless parade of  what were heretofore nondescript, unheralded players.

A bunch of "Meh" Guys. The Unheralded Ones.

from fangraphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nl-rookie-of-the-year-no-longer-a-two-horse-race/

Heading into the season, Kris Bryant enjoyed favored status when it came to predicting a National League Rookie of the Year. When FanGraphs writers were polled before the season, 20 of 36 votes went to the Chicago Cubs’ third baseman; seven went Joc Pederson; six were cast for Jorge SolerNoah Syndergaard,Jung Ho Kang and Raisel Iglesias each got one. A couple months into the season, Pederson inserted himself into the race with 13 home runs by the end of May. As the year has moved on, Bryant and Pederson have come back to the pack a bit while Matt Duffy, Kang and Syndergaard have moved into the conversation for the NL’s top rookie. The award is no longer a two-horse battle, and all the players who have risen up are sure to see plenty of exposure since each of them is in the middle of a pennant race.
 NL ROY CANDIDATES- CUMULATIVE OFFENSIVE RUNS ABOVE AVERAGE
The chart below shows each rookie’s current WAR and the rest of the season projection from the FanGraphs Depth Charts. The third column adds the first two, showing the expected WAR at the end of the season.

WARROS WARUPDATED WAR
Kris Bryant3.41.65.0
Matt Duffy3.10.83.9
Joc Pederson2.71.13.8
Noah Syndergaard2.51.23.7
Jung-Ho Kang2.70.83.5
Randal Grichuk2.70.63.3
Chris Heston2.30.93.2
Maikel Franco1.30.72.0
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  • Matt Duffy didn't appear on too many Top 10 prospects list, certainly not mine, but was a cult favorite among Giants watchers.
  • Joe Panik was met with mostly yawns and generally panned as a first rounder. 
  • Chris Heston was not a Top Ten Prospect, yet makes a solid contribution as a starter.
  • Add in the bench mob, guys like Juan Perez and Gregor Blanco, who would be a starter and a solid contributor on quite a few teams.  

So yeah, it would be nice to dream of Matt Duffy winning the ROY award this year. But let's face it, Kris Bryant was the pre-season Heralded One by the prognosticators ( see FanGraphs reference) and they have a vested interest in confirming their predictions ( see, I was right!! Yippee!! ). Matt Duffy was heralded by NOBODY. Therefore, just like in boxing. Duffy is the challenger and has to either knock-out or decisively win by decision or acclamation. If both guys are standing at the end of the year and it's close statistically, the decision will go to Bryant. Having said that, (or really having written that) I do give Duffy a punchers chance to win because he is such a fighter and has overcome long odds his entire professional career just to get to this spot.

So, MATT DUFFY for ROOKIE OF THE YEAR!! Or just break the odd year even year thingy. Whatever. A little more help from some of the more heralded ones not named Bumgarner or Posey or Crawford would be of great help in that regard.


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