I wonder sometimes if all the sports parents who spend considerable sums on their prodigies in order to "get exposure" for a coveted college scholarship understand the risk/reward ratio.
"Professional opportunities are extremely limited and the likelihood of a high school or even college athlete becoming a professional athlete is very low."This study just looks at the odds of a college athlete going pro. The odds of a HS athlete going to college and then the pros is exponentially greater, as is the odds of a youth player going from that level. Think about a pyramid shape, more competitors at the lower levels trying to claw up to the limited spaces at the higher levels.
So going from the youth level to college level would seem to be almost as difficult (two level jump) as from HS or college to pros, which is to say "very low".
I wonder sometimes why they don't take the now large sums of money invested in that dream of going to college via scholarship and take the virtually guaranteed route of saving that money and paying their kids own way through college.
They can still walk-on and compete in a chosen sport. In the current environment, especially in baseball with 13.1 scholarships that needs to accommodate 25 players, coaches would appreciate a "freebie" every now and then.
IDK, maybe the glory is worth rolling the dice, but it's not even a double or nothing wager in my opinion.
from NCAA.org
http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/estimated-probability-competing-professional-athletics
Estimated probability of competing in professional athletics
More than 460,000 compete as NCAA athletes, and just a select few within each sport move on to compete at the professional or Olympic level.The table presents of how many NCAA athletes move on to professional careers in sports like basketball, football, baseball and ice hockey. Professional opportunities are extremely limited and the likelihood of a high school or even college athlete becoming a professional athlete is very low.
In contrast, the likelihood of an NCAA athlete earning a college degree is significantly greater; graduation success rates are 84% in Division I, 72% in Division II and 87% in Division III.
| NCAA Participants | Approximate # Draft Eligible | # Draft Slots | # NCAA Drafted | % NCAA to Major Pro* | % NCAA to Total Pro^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 71,291 | 15,842 | 256 | 255 | 1.6% | 3.7% |
| M Basketball | 18,320 | 4,071 | 60 | 47 | 1.2% | 11.6% |
| W Basketball | 16,319 | 3,626 | 36 | 32 | 0.9% | 4.7% |
| Baseball | 33,431 | 7,429 | 1,216 | 638 | 8.6% | -- |
| M Ice Hockey | 3,976 | 884 | 211 | 60 | 6.8% | -- |
| M Soccer | 23,602 | 5,245 | 76 | 72 | 1.4% | -- |
* Percent NCAA to Major Pro figures are based on the number of available draft slots in the NFL, NBA, WNBA, MLB, NHL and MLS drafts only. See methods notes for important details on the definition of NHL draftee in men's ice hockey. Column percentages were calculated as (#NCAA Drafted) / (Approximate # Draft Eligible).
^ Percent NCAA to Total Pro takes the number of pro opportunities from the "% NCAA to Major Pro" calculation and adds in some additional professional opportunities that we were able to quantify. So, for football, this calculation includes NFL, Canadian Football League and Arena League slots available to first-year professionals. For men's basketball we accounted for NBA, NBA D-League and international opportunities. For women's basketball, we assessed WNBA and international roster slots. See methods notes for details on these calculations. Data on full-time international professional opportunities available in baseball, men's ice hockey and men's soccer were not analyzed here.
Methodology and Notes
General- College participation numbers are from the NCAA's 2013-14 Sports Sponsorship and Participation Rates Report. These college numbers account for participation in college athletics at NCAA-member schools only.
- To estimate the number of NCAA student-athletes in a sport eligible for a particular year's professional draft, the total number of NCAA student-athlete participants in the sport was divided by 4.5. This figure was used to provide a general estimate of the number of student-athletes in a draft cohort (single draft class) in a given year, accounting for redshirting, degree completion delays due to transfer, etc. that extend the average time to graduation to just beyond four year in all sports. In other words, we observe a year-to-year departure rate (whether due to graduation, dropout or departure for a professional sports opportunity) of just below one-quarter of the total number of student-athletes in each sport. Because the sports examined (M/W basketball, football, baseball, men's ice hockey and men's soccer) have dramatically different rules for draft eligibility, these calculations should be treated as estimates only.
- Data on available professional opportunities are described below for each sport.
- MLB draft data from 2013. There were 1,216 draft picks in that year; 638 of those picked were from NCAA schools (source: NCSA Athletic Recruiting website). Of the 638, Division I student-athletes comprised 552 of those chosen, Division II provided 72 and Division III had 14. 382 high school athletes were chosen in 2013 (some of whom went on to play in college instead of turning pro) along with 154 from junior colleges, 38 from NAIA schools and 4 from other sources.
- Percent NCAA to Pro calculated as number of NCAA student-athletes taken in the draft (n=638) divided by approximate number draft eligible. Not all of the student-athletes drafted go on to play professional baseball and many draftees fail to reach the Major League.
- NHL draft data from 2013. There were 211 draft picks in that year. Only 4 players from NCAA rosters were selected in that draft. However, this is not indicative of the likelihood of going from a college team to a professional team due to the nature of the NHL draft, where players are typically selected prior to turning college-aged.
- In examining the subsequent hockey pathways of 2013 draftees, we determined that 60 of the 211 (source: hockeydb.com) had attended an NCAA college for any period of time through February 2015 (or in two cases had committed to a college for 2015-16). These numbers, although not fully comparable to those used in the other sports examined, were used to calculate an approximate NCAA to Major Pro percentage. Note that only a small subset of the players drafted ever play in an NHL game. Undrafted college players may go on to sign contracts with NHL teams after completing college (those numbers are not part of the current NCAA to Major Pro calculation).
- Currently, 31% of players on active NHL rosters played college hockey, up from about 20% in the year 2000 (source: collegehockeyinc.com). Of the 1,437 hockey players under contract with any NHL team in 2014, 27% were former NCAA student-athletes (all but one from Division I ice hockey programs). Thanks to Nate Ewell at College Hockey, Inc. for providing these data.
- MLS SuperDraft data from 2014. There were 77 draft slots in that year, but only 76 picks made. Of the 76 picks, 72 were NCAA student-athletes (68 from Division I programs, 3 from Division II and 1 from Division III). Percentage NCAA to Major Pro calculated using the 72 NCAA selections. (Source: mlssoccer.com).
- These calculations do not account for other domestic or international professional soccer opportunities.
- NBA draft data from 2013. There were 60 draft slots in that year, but only 47 went to NCAA players (others chosen were international players not attending U.S. colleges). Percentage NCAA to Major Pro calculated using the 47 NCAA selections. Since 2006, 12 international players have been drafted on average each year.
- On 2014-15 opening day NBA rosters, former NCAA players filled 81% of roster spots (all but one player from Division I schools). (Source: Jim Sukup, College Basketball News).
- Data on other professional opportunities in men's basketball were collected by NCAA staff with the assistance of Marek Wojtera from eurobasket.com. It was determined that an additional 424 former NCAA student-athletes from the 2013 draft cohort played internationally or in the NBA D-League in 2014 (307 from Division I, 90 from Division II and 27 from Division III). These numbers were combined with the NBA draftees to calculate an NCAA to Total Professional opportunities proportion (calculated as [47 + 424] / 4,071).
- We estimate that 3.9% of draft-eligible Division I players were chosen in the 2013 NBA draft (47 / 1,210). However, in total, 29% of draft-eligible Division I players competed professionally (NBA, D-League, or internationally) in their first year after leaving college (calculated as [47 + 307] / 1,210). Approximately 15% of draft-eligible players from the five Division I conferences with autonomous governance (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC) were drafted by the NBA in 2013 (33 / 222), while 52% played professionally somewhere in their first year post-college (calculated as [33 + 82] / 222).
- WNBA draft data from 2013. There were 36 draft slots in that year's draft, 32 of which went to NCAA players (other 4 chosen were international players not attending U.S. colleges). All 32 NCAA selections came from Division I colleges. Percentage NCAA to Major Pro calculated using the 32 NCAA selections.
- Data on international professional opportunities in women's basketball were collected by NCAA staff with the assistance of Marek Wojtera from eurobasket.com. It was determined that an additional 139 former NCAA student-athletes from the 2013 draft cohort played internationally in 2014 (129 from Division I, 8 from Division II and 2 from Division III). These numbers were combined with the WNBA draftees to calculate an NCAA to Total Professional opportunities proportion (calculated as [32 + 139] / 3,626).
- We estimate that 2.9% of draft-eligible Division I players were chosen in the 2013 WNBA draft (32 / 1,089). However, in total, 15% of draft-eligible Division I players competed professionally (WNBA or internationally) in their first year after leaving college (calculated as [32 + 129] / 1,089). Approximately 12% of draft-eligible players from the five Division I conferences with autonomous governance (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC) were drafted by the WNBA in 2013 (26 / 222), while 31% played professionally somewhere in their first year post-college (calculated as [26 + 43] / 222).
- NFL draft data from 2014. There were 256 draft slots in that year's draft, 255 of which went to former NCAA players (1 player drafted from a Canadian university). NCAA to Major Pro figure calculated using these data.
- NCAA divisional breakdown of the 255 NCAA players selected in the 2014 NFL draft: Division I FBS (230), Division I FCS (19), Division II (6), Division III (0). The top 5 conferences accounted for 172 of the 255 draft picks (SEC=49, ACC=42, Pac-12=34, Big Ten=30, Big 12=17).
- Data on Arena League and Canadian Football League opportunities were collected by NCAA staff via rosters on each organization's website (sources: cfl.ca and arenafootball.com) in February 2015. It was determined that an additional 327 former NCAA student-athletes from the 2014 draft cohort were listed on a roster (190 in the CFL, 137 in the Arena League). Across these two leagues, there were 203 former Division I FBS players, 74 from Division I FCS, 44 from Division II and 6 from Division III. These numbers were combined with the NFL draftees to calculate an NCAA to Total Professional opportunities proportion (calculated as [255 + 327] / 15,842).
- We estimate that 4.0% of draft-eligible Division I players were chosen in the 2014 NFL draft (249 / 6,153). Limiting this calculation to FBS players, 7.0% were estimated to be drafted (230 / 3,275). Narrowing further to the five Division I conferences with autonomous governance (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC), we estimate that 10.1% were drafted (172 / 1,709). Accounting for Arena League and CFL opportunities, the NCAA to Total Professional figures are estimated as 8.5% for Division I ([249 + 277] / 6,153), 13.2% for FBS ([230 + 203] / 3,275) and 16.4% for the five autonomous conferences ([172 + 108] / 1,709).
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