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Wednesday, February 26, 2020
WEEK TWO (and a half): The BirdsofStray, and TOTO too, leave the Nest for a game against South Carolina
JACKSONVILLE, FL - The 'Strays leave the Nest for their first road trip to Columbia, SC and I used the opportunity to test drive some baseball statistical concepts in real-time via Twitter.
Using basic Data Analysis tools (Excel, iPhone calculator), we looked at Lineup Optimization, Run Expectancy & Win Expectancy.
The college formula for RC (Runs Created), would need to be adjusted from 38 Plate Appearance per game to about 40, using last years UNF data and 2019 NCAA pitching data.
Also noted that the early inning where SC tried to give the game away -- Top of 2nd with the 3 walks and two errors -- really changed the odds significantly, especially the errors. They count as an AB without a hit attached (negative to offenses RE) although they do add to OBA. There should be an additional adjustment to the offense, for adding most significant resource, additional out(s).
I suppose you would then have to further complicate the formula to account for double plays and caught stealing, or net them out, as outs added back to the offense or given back to the defense. No thanks!!
For a back of the envelope type of calculation, this is not too shabby. It's hard enough to concentrate with that blasted Run Expectancy Matrix (RE24) running through my head.
This was the box score from the game and my usual post-mortem bitching and whining on Twitter.
We came in with a lineup that was capable of scoring 3.932 runs & came out with 5. The early walks & errors contributed to the overage, but the 3.932 is a concern. Configure optimally the expectation would be 5.01 runs. We are currently @ xRA 5.98, actual ~ 8 RA, pitching. Ugh!
Quote Tweet
Charles Slavik
@theslav1959
·
FINAL 6-5: They tried to give it away early and did just enough to hold on. Only 4K's to UNF 11K hitting. 12H to 5H and 3xBH to 1xBH.
OBA SPCTPA Rx Wx
0.359.......0.182........38.00.........2.48.......0.048
0.452.......0.645........38.00.........11.07....... 0.952
BTW: If the xR was 5.01 coming in...& the opponent bumps that up by 1.068....poof! 6.078 Runs, maybe we're still playing. Or we utilize the bullpen different & sneak away with a W. Just thinking out loud. BTW2: This was very predictable for the program, given larger prior issues.
Currently on a glide path for 24-33 record, if we get to 57 games played. In near term, playing #19 Hartford, #148 CM, #86 Ohio St. and #61 IL St. could lead to 3-9 which leaves team 5-14 entering B.C. series and FAMU. A sweep there (??) leads to 9-14 entering conference. Ugh!
I know some were pissed when Baseball America picked UNF for 5th in conference. That's looking rather generous as right now, Warren Nolan has us ranked #286, last in conference. The trend is not our friend right now.
1
These were the real-time game posts, after each inning. I messed up the formatting on Twitter for the first couple of innings. What a Twit?
FINAL 6-5: They tried to give it away early and did just enough to hold on. Only 4K's to UNF 11K hitting. 12H to 5H and 3xBH to 1xBH.
OBA SPCTPA Rx Wx
0.359.......0.182........38.00.........2.48.......0.048
0.452.......0.645........38.00.........11.07....... 0.952
After 8, down 6-5, it's Hail Mary time:
OBA SPCT PA Rx Wx
0.389........0.200........38.00........ 2.96......... 0.067
0.452........0.645........38.00........ 11.07....... 0.933
After 7, down 6-5. Good timem for a 2-spot:
OBA SPCTPA Rx Wx
0.480.......0.300........38.00........ 5.47......... 0.196
0.452.......0.645........38.00........ 11.07...... 0.804
A big AB by Libunao in T7. Looking like another 1-2-3, low pitch count inning gets extended and almost scores a Little League offense run, BB-WP-WP-(almost....)
Though 6, down 6-5 after 11 pitch T6:
OBA SPCT PA Rx Wx
0.480........0.300........38.00........ 5.47........ 0.172
0.448........0.704........38.00........ 11.99...... 0.828
After 5, 5-5. A big hold by Kilfoyl there. Creeping back slowly:
OBA SPCT PA Rx Wx
0.480.........0.300........38.00........5.47......... 0.167
0.417.........0.773........38.00........ 12.23..... 0.833
After 2: Up 4-3, W&E skew Rx/Wx, less likely to come in bunches at MLB level. It is two different boxscores over SSS of 2 innings. WAYGD?
OBA SPCT PA Rx Wx
0.5830.22238 4.92 0.114
0.4000.90038 13.68 0.886
We came in with a lineup that was capable of scoring 3.932 runs & came out with 5. The early walks & errors contributed to the overage, but the 3.932 is a concern. Configure optimally the expectation would be 5.01 runs. We are currently @ xRA 5.98, actual ~ 8 RA, pitching. Ugh!
Quote Tweet
Charles Slavik
@theslav1959
·
FINAL 6-5: They tried to give it away early and did just enough to hold on. Only 4K's to UNF 11K hitting. 12H to 5H and 3xBH to 1xBH.
OBA SPCTPA Rx Wx
0.359.......0.182........38.00.........2.48.......0.048
0.452.......0.645........38.00.........11.07....... 0.952
BTW: If the xR was 5.01 coming in...& the opponent bumps that up by 1.068....poof! 6.078 Runs, maybe we're still playing. Or we utilize the bullpen different & sneak away with a W. Just thinking out loud. BTW2: This was very predictable for the program, given larger prior issues.
Currently on a glide path for 24-33 record, if we get to 57 games played. In near term, playing #19 Hartford, #148 CM, #86 Ohio St. and #61 IL St. could lead to 3-9 which leaves team 5-14 entering B.C. series and FAMU. A sweep there (??) leads to 9-14 entering conference. Ugh!
I know some were pissed when Baseball America picked UNF for 5th in conference. That's looking rather generous as right now, Warren Nolan has us ranked #286, last in conference. The trend is not our friend right now.
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