WEEK TWO: One flew over the BirdsofStray's Nest (TOTO) this weekend..

JACKSONVILLE, FL - This is what it felt like watching the series against Rutgers against TOTO @ the BirdsofStray's Nest in Jacksonville. When you go against a team that ended last year NCAA RPI ranked  191 versus our own 106, at home, a 2-1 split is not unreasonable to assume.

Rutgers was also 0-15 versus Quadrants 1-2 last year (versus UNF 7-11) and 5-24 if you add Quad 3 teams (versus UNF 14-15). Making up that sort of a differential, with a lineup that was laden with sophomores was very impressive, if somewhat painful, to watch.

Last week we may have assumed too much from facing VMI, where a 3-0 sweep expectation dissolved into a shaky 2-1 split reality. OK, so was I worried about this series, no! Did I expect what happened this weekend, no!

So, what do we know? Given that we have been off base on our expectations versus reality. Well, I do know this, and we hear it every game that a certain catcher plays, we just don't hear enough of it.

When the levee breaks.....

If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break...

When the levee breaks, I'll have no place to stay....

Don't it make you feel bad... When you're tryin' to find your way home... You don't know which way to go?...

Cryin' won't help you prayin' won't do you no good...

When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move....

....mama, you got to move....That makes so much sense, more than doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. That's cuckoo, man!!

So, where do we stand? Let's dig into the numbers a bit. Based on our old friend, the RC formula (OBA*SPct*PA), we have UNF @ 5.01 runs expected versus Opponents @ 5.98. Actual Runs come in at 4.17 for UNF (17% below expected) and 8.00 for Opponents (33% over expected).

What gives? Is the formula wacked? In the short-term, it's going to be volatile. In the long-term, it's very reliable.

What could be skewing the data? Where are the most obvious glaring disparities between us-them?

Data Point         UNF      Opponents

Errors                    10                4

Unearned Runs      10                4

Stolen Bases           2                 6

Wild Pitches          12                2?

     K%                        20%             15%

     BB%                      6%               10%

Avg. RISP             ??                 ??

I don't know what the Average with Runner in Scoring Position (RISP) numbers are, but I imagine we fell short in that category as well. RISP is a poor-man's proxy for clutch-hitting.

Clutch hitting, which most believing SABR-metrician's still believe DOES NOT exist, sure threw it's weight around in this series, and I believe it begins with the plate discipline #'s (K%, BB% and hitting approach) all of which Rutgers hitters displayed often this weekend.

The data points above cover pretty much all aspects of the game, offense, defense and special teams.

If you add the errors, stolen bases and wild pitches to the RC formula as an additional OB (I don't know what the exact weighting would be for these events so approximate),for opponents you move the Opponents Runs Expected to 6.70. The rest of the disparity likely resides in the elusive clutch-hitting metric (RISP).

The plate discipline disparity is reflected somewhat in the OBA components of RC formula and displays itself on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. For that reason, I still feel that focusing on the "process" side of the ball rather than the "results" side. Which dovetails to my last point for this week...

From last week's missive, we identified that the three JUCO transfers posted a 2-25. This weekend, 3-21. We've seen this movie last year somewhat with guys named Maberry, Marabell and Hurwitz. To my memory, only Hurwitz came out of the gate banging, and he was platooned with Clark. That's one of the reasons that every time the 2020 JUCO's told me there was no difference between D1 and JUCO, I was wary.

Of course, you want players to believe that and play accordingly. If you look at the complete season stats from 2019, you wouldn't have guessed that they struggled out of the gate.
If they don't let the numbers get into their head, and maybe squeeze the bat a little less tight, things will happen. Hits fall in bunches too, sometimes. That's baseball.

Some good things happened over the weekend:

• The 'Strays SWOOPLife Live baseball commentator Drew McDonald and I were discussing the series before the game and Drew mentioned that Eddie Miller had not pitched yet in the series and if a save opportunity did not present itself he might not go until Tuesday against South Carolina. I had hoped that they stretched him out more innings over the course of the season for Eddie's future baseball playing prospects. He pitched 48 innings last year with the departed Trace Norkus picking up 34 IP in some high-leverage spots. I think he needs to pitch at least 1.0 innings per game played, which would be at least 57 IP for the season. As it turned out, they stretched him out four innings Sunday.  A hybrid, non-traditional closer role might be good, and Miller did not look like he would shy away from an enhanced workload.

• Tucker Horsley's HR was a bolt of lightning. We need another RH power bat in the lineup and if he can deliver it, either from behind the dish or 1B, so be it. He looked good behind the dish on scout day and pre-season. I know that's different from game-speed, but the bat spoke, good and loud.

• It's amazing how many runs can be scored without hearing the term "launch-angle". Rutgers demonstrated that and put a couple of balls over the fence. If some of these modern hitters would push away from YouTube or the Twitter-hitter debates they might realize that last years UNF team demonstrated a negative correlation between FB and OPS and a positive correlation between GB and OPS. I can increase the sample size  but a couple of studies have demonstrated and MLB scouts will tell you that the reason it is hard to scout hitters is that works at the college level is fundamentally different than what works for MLB hitters. But that's not what we're feeding kids today -- solid fundamentals -- were feeding them marketing gimmickry disguised as knowledge.

What to watch out for:

• Rutgers became the first non-conference opponent to come in and sweep North Florida at Harmon Stadium since Hartford in Feb. 2016.