WEEK THREE (second half): The BirdsofStray return to the Nest against Central Michigan

JACKSONVILLE, FL - The 'Strays returned to the Nest for a series against Central Michigan and went 0-4 across the weekend. 

Currently, at fourteen games played out of 53 games now on the schedule (game against Bradley added on 3/18 from the original 52 games) they are past the first quarter pole for the season. 

Let's review beginning with the offensive side of the ball:

The optimized lineup, without regard to L-R splits, was expected to produce 4.81 Runs/G. In the four-game series, UNF scores 17 runs in 4 games for a 4.25 RS/G. 

As things turned out, not paying much attention to splits was appropriate as CMU pitched LHP 3.2 of the 32 IP, a little over 10% of the time. Their pitching staff apparently leans to the right as much as our lineup leans to the left. 

After the CMU series, the optimized (best) lineup configuration appears to be the following:

I compared my caveman calculations versus noted statisticians like Cyril Morong (cool Lineup Analysis tool from baseballmusings.com) and Tom Tango (author of The Book) to massage the lineup but the best Rx is shown above at 4.57 R/g using my numbers and 4.315 Max Rx using Morong's.  

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py

So, we're getting closer to 2019UNF Rx, which was 5.56. 

RA/G is still abysmal at 8.07 RA/G, versus 2019UNF which was 4.49. 

From a team standpoint, aside from the run disparity (giving up 95% more than creating), 

UNF is getting out-hit (H's) by 51%, 
struck-out 37% more,
OPS is .650 for, .837 against. Not going to win many like that. 
and committing 79% more errors. 

And that is with an inconsistent official scorekeeping, absent which, the numbers might be worse. There's more but I don't want to beat an injured horse with statistics. 

It's good-news/bad-news that the top ERAs on the staff and the lowest BA against are held by 3 freshman and a JUCO transfer on the ERA side, plus a returnee who is hurt. 

The best BA against postings are from three freshman and one returnee from 2019:

Whitehead .150
Roca .246 
Madonna .275 
Chappell .297 

The team needs better production from upper classmen on the pitching side of the ledger soon. 

Last year's UNF team allowed runs distributed as follows:

With 113 RA this year, almost at 2019 total RA through March.

March was a bumpy ride for the staff last year, albeit at lower numbers, but except for one 10 RA in April, the beatings stopped before the middle to end of March. 

Let's hope that happens on the defensive side of the ball this year as well. 

Maybe all we need is a little warm weather. 

I just find it somewhat ironic that we are complaining about the comparatively cold weather. We are playing teams that are likely doing a lot of baseball work inside basketball gyms or outside in weather that would make an Alaskan dog-sled team shiver.  

In future posts, I want to try to:

illustrate some of the observations on batters splits better,

** 2019 UNF Batter Splits** (added):

** together with the 2019 UNF Batter Splits above you can use the 2020 splits dashboard to track splits and revere splits among personnel. It can be a different lineup depending on availability (health) and the handedness of the pitcher on the mound ** 

*** 2020 UNF Batter Splits Dashboard **:

I am already not a fan of the RC columns since those are cumulative or counting stats. I like the PA versus pitcher handedness to see if there is enough data, given the prior caveats. 


STILL ON The  Slav's TO-DO LIST:

add some work on pitchers splits, 
and 
investigate the success of this guy, freshman Tony Roca:

This interview is bad-ass! Equal parts Rocky/Mr. T: “We ain’t having any more losing around here. We’re going to eat lightning and crap thunder!” and “Fool, what you talking about what pitches are working, they all worked. I pity the fool that has to bat against me. Straight up!” https://t.co/D3jf09Twz5

— Charles Slavik (@theslav1959) March 2, 2020

#32 LHP just carving through batting orders all cool, calm and collected. Dare I say, like "the left arm of God" Sandy Koufax. 


OK, maybe a bit much, but he is making all the "paisanos" from Jacksonville to Ponte Vedra Beach happy. 

Next up, two against Ohio State during the week and a weekend of three versus Illinois State. I know the Redbirds aren't getting any quality outdoor time up there and neither are the Buckeyes. 

I coached a season of freshman baseball in Illinois during the spring months and it was one of the worst winters I ever endured. 


Other good information regarding Lineup Optimization:
 https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9 So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with base stealers ahead of singles hitters. Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision. Of course, enough empirical analysis has revealed serious flaws with this approach. Turns out, the two-hole is actually the most important placement in the lineup. The cleanup and number five spots should be occupied by the two next best overall hitters on the team.

Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andy Dolphin used run expectancy to reach this conclusion, evaluating the potential of each position in the order to generate runs. While their overall analysis far exceeds the scope of this article, you can read their book covering the issue (among other interesting sabermetric topics). It’s called The Book.
Using sabermetrics, the following general guidelines are recommended for batting order.

      https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guides/strategy/batting-order-sabermetrics/

Qualities 1. Highest OBP on team; Speed is important but ability to get on base matters much more OBP1
2. Highest wRC+ on team; Very high OBP; Best overall batter on the team; Must be consistent and balanced OBP2
3. Good overall batter; High wRC+; Less important than #5 spot; Likely 4th best hitter overall wRC+
4. Most powerful hitter on the team: Must have very high SLG%, HR, ISO SLG,HR,ISO
5. Good overall batter with extra emphasis on power. High wRC+; High SLG%; More important than #3 spot; Like 3rd best hitter overall wRC+,SLG
6. Average/good overall batter with emphasis on baserunning; high OBP and SB OBP,SB
7. Average overall hitter RC
8. Average overall hitter RC
9. Worst hitter on the team; likely the pitcher in NL games RC