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Tuesday, August 07, 2007

What if 73 HR'S Never Happened?




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What if Bonds 2001 season was a "normal" Bonds season instead of the statistical outlier that is was?

What if he just hit HR's at the same rate had been in prior seasons?

I used these assumptions and added one other adjustment. The number of walks received by Bonds in 2001 and in subsequent years would then be adjusted back down to the preceeding five year average.

From 2001-2005 I left Bond's HR rate to 1 HR per 10 AB and then increased the rate to 12.5 AB in 2006 and 15 AB in 2007 to account for aging.

And what do you know, the Adjusted HR's come out to 752 instead of the 754 he had when I downloaded the career statistics.

So we presumably would not be talking about the jealousy of McGwire and Sosa's HR totals. We wouldn't have the media protection of the McGwire legacy for breaking the season home-run record, because he would have never touched that record or McGwire's legacy, which at that time was still pristine.

How much would have changed in terms of perception? How much would have changed in terms of the message regarding Bonds? Would the BALCO mess been a priority in a rogue IRS agents mind if 73 had not happened? All of that began shortly after 2001, the year Bonds dared to push McGwire off the mountain top. Aaron was not a reasonable target at that point. So what would have happened? I guess we'll never know.

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