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Thursday, September 16, 2010

Joe Morgan disses Buster Posey in his own back yard



I used to think he was dumb for his reflexively calling the fake-to-third, comeback pickoff to first move as a balk on the one hand and then immediately saying it doesn't fool anyone. Somewhere as a child, little Joe must have been fooled badly by this move and just never got over it.

And I know he has a great reputation for his disdain for statistics generally, preferring to rely on his own biases to determine who is a better player or team.

Whatever system you use, I'm not sure how you conclude that Jason Heyward is a more deserving Rookie of the Year candidate than Buster Posey this year.

Maybe he's talking to Giants announcer Mike Krukow and GM Brian Sabean too much.

Hall of Famer Joe Morgan doesn't place much value on the role of a catcher and its effect on the performance of his pitching staff. Here's a quote from one of Joe's chats about Bryce Harper in particular and the difficulty of the catching position generally.

"Catching is putting the fingers down and catching the ball," Morgan wrote to a catching fan. "Veteran pitchers call their own games in the majors. No one makes the plays for you at shortstop. You get help when you're a young catcher. Managers will sometimes call pitches, like a football coach calling plays. There's more you have to do as a shortstop — it's not the hardest position to play as a young player, but there's more to learn.

It's funny, because the logic that Sabean used to start Posey in the minors were related to the intricacies of catching and directing a major league staff, so it can't be as easy as Joe makes it out to be.

Giants announcer Mike Krukow sure seems to place a lot of value on every tap of the glove and every glance or stance Posey makes in that it might be tipping one of the Giants pitchers deliveries, thereby causing it to be deposited in the bleachers somewhere. The G-men pitching staff is at or near the top of the league in most statistical categories so he must not be tipping off too much to the opponents.

The gist of Hall of Famer Joe Morgan's opinion that Heyward is the more deserving ROY candidate seems to revolve around the fact that Heyward was "winning games" for the Braves while Posey spent the first month and a half in the minors.

A cursory look at the most elementary of stats would reveal that even with this month and a half advantage, Posey has kept up with Heyward.

In 92 G and 346 AB Posey has 13 HR 59 RBI and a .324 AVG
In 127 G and 463 AB Heyward has 17 HR 68 RBI and a .287 AVG

Heyward has a 117 AB head start and is barely leading in the major, Triple Crown categories.

Looking at the secondary stats Posey outslugs Heyward .506 to .477.

In the WAR or Wins Above Replacement player stat, Heyward leads 4.5 wins vs. 2.4 for Posey.

This stat looks most closely at the category Joe was referring to as far as "winning more games" for his team. The stat compares the offensive stats versus what an average player would have produced at the position instead. Posey's lesser number of AB's and his occasional stints at 1B hurt him in this category.

Clearly, Posey plays the more demanding and important defensive position and there is some value attached to that leadership position. Both players hit in the middle of their teams orders and are offensive forces.

The offensive numbers are a virtual dead heat. I believe that by the end of the season when the ballots are cast, that the value Posey has added defensively more than makes up for the slightly less number of AB's and vaults Gerald Demp "Buster" Posey to 2010 National League Rookie of the Year.

I don't care what Hall of Famer Joe Morgan says.

I just continue to wonder who makes the dumber statements during the course of the average broadcast, Joe Morgan or Tim McCarver?

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