BaseballAmerica.com: Orlando Cabrera Joins Giants In Club's Third Deadline Deal

The prospects continue to fly off the Giants organizational charts in exchange for veteran help at SS. Neal becomes expendable as a potential future LF if Belt moves in at 1B and Huff moves to LF next year. So another solid move by Sabean. Now onto the final piece, a stop-gap move to solidify the C position and the Giants should be as prepared as they are going to be for the playoffs.

BaseballAmerica.com: Majors: Trade Central: Orlando Cabrera Joins Giants In Club's Third Deadline Deal:

The Giants acquired 36-year-old second baseman Orlando Cabrera from the Indians, parting with Triple-A outfielder Thomas Neal in trade. San Francisco made two other July trades for position players, bringing aboard second baseman Jeff Keppinger from the Astros and right fielder Carlos Beltran from the Mets.

Cabrera's offensive output has slipped considerably in the past two seasons (74 OPS+), but he's still something of a good luck charm for teams vying for the playoffs. He's appeared in six of the past seven postseasons, suiting up for the 2004 Red Sox, 2005 and 2007 Angels, 2008 White Sox, 2009 Twins and 2010 Reds. Cabrera almost certainly will make his seventh playoff appearance with the 2011 Giants."

from YahooSports.com

INF Orlando Cabrera is the new shortstop, acquired from the Indians for outfield prospect Thomas Neal. Cabrera went 0-for-3 in his Giants debut Sunday and made two nice defensive plays, showing he still has some range and arm strength. Explaining the acquisition, GM Brian Sabean said, "Our guys look overmatched with the bat, and he has experience. We considered it an upgrade. … We had to react to being undermanned, and we couldn't pass up the opportunity."

Brian Sabean on Beltran: “Hopefully this shows we mean business” | Extra Baggs

JUST SO YOU KNOW - THIS IS WHAT GIANTS FANS MAY BE MISSING DOWN THE ROAD - Zach Wheeler

Yes, Wheeler could end up being a top of the line starter like Tim Lincecum. He could also end up like Tim Alderson, who the Pirates are still waiting on. Remember one time, not so long ago, Alderson was as highly regarded as one Madison Bumgarner. Just think of where the Giants would be if the Pirates had demanded MadBum instead of Alderson in the Freddie Sanchez deal.

Some interesting comments from Brian Sabean on the Giants internal mindset leading up to the deal.

Brian Sabean on Beltran: “Hopefully this shows we mean business” | Extra Baggs:

"Giants GM Brian Sabean just held a conference call to discuss the acquisition of Carlos Beltran, which is official. The Mets are getting top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler and kicking in roughly two-thirds of the $6 million still owed to Beltran this season.

The major news points, then on to the Sabean transcript, with the best stuff bolded for easy reading…

–Sabean said the organization has to be serious about defending its title. The city, fans and the players deserved an acquisition like this.

–The Giants decided to give up Wheeler only after vice president Dick Tidrow, Sabean’s most trusted advisor and the Henry Ford of pitching development, assured him that the farm system has enough power arms to absorb the loss."

–Sabean hopes to use the $4 million in savings to help the club in other areas, but the market for a catcher or shortstop has not gotten any riper. If the Giants can address those positions, it’s more likely to happen with waiver deals or claims in August. Sabean is still looking for offense, though.

-Bill Hall was activated from the 15-day DL and designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster space for Beltran. The Giants still must option a player to create a 25-man roster space today, but it won’t be Brandon Belt who goes down. Sabean deferred to Manager Bruce Bochy, but said Belt is likely to play a role similar to what Travis Ishikawa did for last year’s club.

Not so long ago these were the guys on the Untouchables List. Posey and Bumgarner have hit, still waiting on Gillaspie and Noonan and Alderson = Sanchez, Freddie.

Q: When and how did you make up your mind to sacrifice a prospect like Wheeler for a rental player?

“Carlos is the player we coveted all along. As we knew what the price of doing business was, we tried to create other options. It became apparent no matter which way we turned, we’d take a hit on our prospect list. In this case, as we were getting close to make the deal, we crossed the bridge with trading a pitcher over a position player with almost equal potential.”

“You look at the (Dan) Runzlers and (Heath) Hembrees of the world, folks we consider with power arms, plus what we did in this year’s draft. Dick Tidrow does such a good job with pitching talent. We didn’t think Wheeler would impact our situation in the immediate future. So frankly, it’s our job to find or develop another Wheeler.”

Q: Another question about Wheeler…

“Wheeler’s got a lot of potential. There’s some missed development time. Quite frankly, we go with Dick Tidrow’s advice and guidance. While he felt we were giving up a quality arm, he felt we did have inventory. Our sandwich pick, (Kyle) Crick, was very much like a first-round pick. We chose the pitcher because we’ve been pretty good at developing pitching on our end and we think we’ll continue to do that.”

I like the comments about inventory / spare parts and agree for the most part. Even after parting with Wheeler and potential future closer Jason Stoffel, the Giants have LHP Eric Surkamp and RHP Heath Hembree looking pretty good.

After those guys, RHP's Jose Casilla and Jorge Burcardo look like they will be solid if not spectacular contributors. Further down the line RHP's Seth Rosin, Stehpen Harrold and converted IF Jake Dunning are showing well at the A-levels.

What bothers me right now is the flat-lining of the LHP's in waiting. Clayton Tanner is scuffling 3-8, 4.60 in AA. Ryan Verdugo at 6-4, 3.83 in AA is showing well and may be the best of the bunch right now. Aaron King has back-tracked his way to AAA Fresno and Mike Kickham is struggling at 2-6. 4.54 in Lo-A ball. So on the southpaw front -- after Surkamp -- the cupboard is starting to look pretty bare.

Actually looking at the list, I would not want to see the Giants give up any more pitching prospects in future deals.

---

Even youths grow tired and weary, and young men stumble and fall; but those who hope in the Lord will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. -- Isaiah 40:30-31

Giants To Acquire Carlos Beltran: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Zack Wheeler, P, San Francisco Giants


Zack Wheeler 2008 UA All-American - Baseball Factory


This is the most recent rumor out there, but if true, if it ONLY costs the Giants Zach Wheeler and no other prospects -- I make this deal. The Giants will be challenged to either make another deep run this year with Beltran and / or re-sign him long-term to make the sacrifice of Wheeler worth it.

Wheeler is a premium prospect, but his stats have been a bot uneven in the early going in Low-A. He is still a long way from The Show and the path is littered with the corpses of young pitching phenoms who never made the climb. Met fans have to be disappointed if this is all they haul in for Beltran.

The deal may be delayed 24 hours until Beltran, as a 10 / 5 guy, approves. That is reportedly a mere formality.


Giants To Acquire Carlos Beltran: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com:

"The Giants have the worst offense of any National League contender, so today GM Brian Sabean pounced on the best hitter available.  The Giants and Mets reached a tentative agreement that will send right fielder Carlos Beltran and $4MM to San Francisco for pitching prospect Zack Wheeler, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports."

The Price for Beltran may be declining - Giants among favorites

Yankees unwilling to give up top prospects for Jimenez - NYPOST.com:

The Mets were described by multiple sources as having moved off A-level prospect requests for Carlos Beltran. They shot high for a few weeks, seeing if someone would break for the best hitter available in this market. But a variety of obstacles such as the inability to offer Beltran arbitration and his $6 million-ish price tag the rest of the year meant the Mets were never going to get elite youngsters such as Philadelphia's Domonic Brown or San Francisco's Zach Wheeler.

"An official from a team involved on Beltran said, 'It doesn't matter how good [general manager] Sandy Alderson does [his job], there is only so much he can get for Carlos Beltran for two months. They will get a good return, but not a headline good return.'

As of yesterday, the Mets were talking two- or three-prospect deals with the Giants, Braves, Phillies, Red Sox and Rangers; and the Brewers continued to call, though their prospect base is viewed as weak. The way the Mets were trying to arrange the deal was if they could get a prospect they really like then they only would need one other prospect from lower down in the system. But if the main cog was not as alluring then they wanted three prospects as a way to deepen their system.


Mets officials insisted they had not defined a front-runner, but the Rangers remained very aggressive. Meanwhile, many outside officials believe the Giants ultimately will end up with Beltran with one saying, 'It is hard to see how it won't be San Francisco. They can take on the most money and I think that is what it is going to come down to.'"

The List of Untouchables expanded

Let's not include either of these guys in any trade discussions either. They are now officially added to The Slav's List of Untouchables, since Brian Sabean seems to have a top secret list.

So for now the list includes: Brandon Belt, Zach Wheeler, Gary Brown, Eric Surkamp and Heath Hembree.

Keith Law identified Heath Hembree as a sleeper prospect and I can see why. Looks like straight cheddar, so he will have to develop a secondary pitch. But Hembree has future closer written all over him.

Hembree is a 6-4, 210 RHP Drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 5th round of the 2010 MLB June Amateur Draft from Coastal Carolina. Hembree was recently elevated to AA so we shall see soon enough if he has what it takes to make an impact, if not late this year, certainly by 2012.

Heath Hembree K's the side against the Ports on May 21, 2011


---
Surkamp is a 6-4,190 LHP Drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 6th round of the 2008 MLB June Amateur Draft from North Carolina State. Surkamp is 8-3 with a 2.00 ERA with AA Richmond. He is described as a finesse lefty who rarely cracks 90MPH on the fastball, but just gets guys out. His K-Rate is very high for someone who doesn't crack 90.

Giants LHP Eric Surkamp warming up on the mound

The Debt Charade continues

These are the guys that the MSM labels as "kooks" and yet, they make the most sense to me. Normally, this sort of dichotomy would be bothersome to me. No longer.

Both the Reid and Boehner plans have been scored an "F" for FRAUD by the bean counters at CBO (Congressional Budget Office). I'm not sure what school of Business, Finance, Economics or Accounting the staffs of Messrs. Reid and Boehner went to, but I'm certain they were transported there on the short bus.

from zerohedge.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cbo-finds-reid-plan-half-trillion-short-27-trillion-promised-actual-cuts-are-375-billion-over-t

From Paul and Kucinich:

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The Pesky Neighbor and the Debt Ceiling

http://paul.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1896:the-pesky-neighbor-and-the-debt-ceiling&catid=62:texas-straight-talk&Itemid=69

Imagine you had a pesky neighbor who somehow took out a mortgage on his house in your name and by some legal trickery you were obligated to pay for it. Imagine watching this neighbor throw drunken parties, buy expensive cars, add more rooms to the house, and hire dozens of people to wait on him hand and foot. Imagine that he also managed to take out several credit cards in your name. One by one, he would max them out and then use your good name and credit to obtain another credit card, then another and then another. Each time, this neighbor would claim that he needed the new credit card to pay interest on the other maxed out credit cards. If he defaulted on those cards, your credit score would be hurt and when you wanted to buy something for yourself, it would be more difficult to get a loan and the interest you paid would be higher. Imagine that you mulled this over, and time after time, said nothing as he filled out more credit applications so he would not have to default on the other debt taken out in your name. Meanwhile, another shiny new Mercedes appears in his driveway. At what point do you think you might get tired of this game? And, even though you are left with no really good options, do you think you might eventually tell him to go ahead and default, just stop spending your money!

This analogy demonstrates the position we are in with our government and the debt ceiling. The government has run up a huge debt in the name of the American people, who are sick and tired of being on the hook for it. There are no really good options left. Defaulting on a portion of the debt may not be without costs, but it is better than handing the government yet another credit card.

The government is using the usual scare tactics to strong-arm the people into going along with more spending. Remember the rhetoric surrounding the big bailout of October 2008? We were told, not that this would be calamitous for the banks, but for the people, who would continue to experience massive job losses and foreclosures. We were told that the economy would sink into a deep recession if this money was not handed out to too-big-to-fail corporate cronies. So, after much hand-wringing, leaders from both parties, against unprecedented public outcry, agreed to shower money on the banks and increase the debt. The banks learned nothing, except that Washington will come to their rescue, no matter what. The people, however, continued to lose their jobs and houses anyway, and here we are, still in a deep recession.

When you read the above example, your first reaction might have been to dismiss the neighbor's debt as illegitimate and in no way your responsibility or your problem. You would be right. No fair-minded legal system would hold you responsible for such a debt, and would instead cart your thieving neighbor off to jail. Yet Congress can impose liabilities on you, your children, and grandchildren without your consent, and even without your knowledge. This is another example of government holding itself above the law. Much like the TSA claims the right to molest us, yet arrested a woman who turned the tables last week, stealing somehow becomes legitimate when the government does it.

We supposedly live in a nation of laws. For once, government needs to heed the law regarding the debt ceiling.

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"Statement on the Cut, Cap and Balance Act

Statement on the Cut, Cap and Balance Act:

Mr. Speaker, I rise to speak against HR 2560, the Cut, Cap, and Balance Act.  This bill only serves to sanction the status quo by putting forth a $1 trillion budget deficit and authorizing a $2.4 trillion increase in the debt limit.

When I say this bill sanctions the status quo, I mean it quite literally.

First, it purports to eventually balance the budget without cutting military spending, Social Security, or Medicare.  This is impossible.  These three budget items already cost nearly $1 trillion apiece annually.  This means we can cut every other area of federal spending to zero and still have a $3 trillion budget.  Since annual federal tax revenues almost certainly will not exceed $2.5 trillion for several years, this Act cannot balance the budget under any plausible scenario."

Second, it further entrenches the ludicrous beltway concept of discretionary vs. nondiscretionary spending. America faces a fiscal crisis, and we must seize the opportunity once and for all to slay Washington's sacred cows-- including defense contractors and entitlements. All spending must be deemed discretionary and reexamined by Congress each year. To allow otherwise is pure cowardice.

Third, the Act applies the nonsensical narrative about a "Global War on Terror" to justify exceptions to its spending caps. Since this war is undeclared, has no definite enemies, no clear objectives, and no metric to determine victory, it is by definition endless. Congress will never balance the budget until we reject the concept of endless wars.

Finally, and most egregiously, this Act ignores the real issue: total spending by government. As Milton Friedman famously argued, what we really need is a constitutional amendment to limit taxes and spending, not simply to balance the budget. What we need is a dramatically smaller federal government; if we achieve this a balanced budget will take care of itself.

We do need to cut spending, and by a significant amount. Going back to 2008 levels of spending is not enough. We need to cut back at least to where spending was a decade ago. A recent news article stated that we pay 35 percent more for our military today than we did 10 years ago, for the exact same capabilities. The same could be said for the rest of the government. Why has our budget doubled in 10 years? This country doesn't have double the population, or double the land area, or double anything that would require the federal government to grow by such an obscene amount.

We need to cap spending, and then continue decreasing that cap so that the federal government grows smaller and smaller. Allowing government to spend up to a certain percentage of GDP is insufficient. It doesn't matter that the recent historical average of government outlays is 18 percent of GDP, because in recent history the government has way overstepped its constitutional mandates. All we need to know about spending caps is that they need to decrease year after year.

We need to balance the budget, but a balanced budget amendment by itself will not do the trick. A $4 trillion balanced budget is most certainly worse than a $2 trillion unbalanced budget. Again, we should focus on the total size of the budget more than outlays vs. revenues.

What we have been asked to do here is support a budget that only cuts relative to the President's proposed budget. It still maintains a $1 trillion budget deficit for FY 2012, and spends even more money over the next 10 years than the Paul Ryan budget which already passed the House.

By capping spending at a certain constant percentage of GDP, it allows for federal spending to continue to grow. Tying spending to GDP creates an incentive to manipulate the GDP figure, especially since the bill delegates the calculation of this figure to the Office of Management and Budget, an agency which is responsible to the President and not to Congress. In the worst case, it would even reward further inflation of the money supply, as increases in nominal GDP through pure inflation would allow for larger federal budgets.

Finally, this bill authorizes a $2.4 trillion rise in the debt limit. I have never voted for a debt ceiling increase and I never will. Increasing the debt ceiling is an endorsement of business as usual in Washington. It delays the inevitable, the day that one day will come when we cannot continue to run up enormous deficits and will be forced to pay our bills.

In conclusion, Mr. Speaker, while I sympathize with the aims of this bill's sponsors, I must vote against HR 2560. It is my hope, however, that the looming debt ceiling deadline and the discussion surrounding the budget will further motivate us to consider legislation in the near future that will make meaningful cuts and long-lasting reforms.

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Debt Political Theater Diverts Attention While Americans’ Wealth is Stolen -- Kucinich | Congressman Dennis J. Kucinich: "Washington, Jul 14 -

Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) today spoke on the House floor about the massive transfer of wealth from the American people to the hands of the few by virtue of wars, energy policies and monetary policies. He called upon Americans to witness Wall Street’s theft of Main Street, which has left millions of everyday Americans out of work and seniors facing cuts to Social Security to pay for tax cuts for the rich.

See video here. The full text of Congressman Kucinich’s remarks follow.

The rancorous debate over the debt belies a fundamental truth of our economy -- that it is run for the few at the expense of the many, that our entire government has been turned into a machine which takes the wealth of a mass of Americans and accelerates it into the hands of the few. Let me give you some examples.

Take war. War takes the money from the American people and puts it into the hands of arms manufacturers, war profiteers, and private armies. The war in Iraq, based on lies: $3 trillion will be the cost of that war. The war in Afghanistan; based on a misreading of history; half a trillion of dollars in expenses already. The war against Libya will be $1 billion by September"

---

“The fact that we are here today to debate raising America ’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the US Government can not pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. Increasing America ’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that ‘the buck stops here.' Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.” -- Senator Barack H. Obama, 2006.

DOES SIZE REALLY MATTER? Today's major leaguers are bigger and stronger than those of earlier eras - physical size of baseball players | Baseball Digest | Find Articles at BNET

The debate surfaces periodically and revolves around the "is today's player better than players from other eras", whether it be the 70's and 80's -- the WWI era -- or the Ruth / Cobb era.

For certain, I believe the quality of the athlete that baseball is recruiting is better now than ever before. Whether that always translates into better players centers around my belief that coaching, especially at the major league level -- but in the minors as well -- has not kept up.

Coaching may be as good or better than ever at the collegiate and HS level. The youth level, IMO still leaves something to be desired. Generally speaking the level of coaching is improving there, if only sporadically.

Putting aside for a moment the segue arguments
- "Do bigger players equal better players?"
and the pejorative fallback argument
- "How did they get bigger and stronger?"

clearly the trend toward bigger, stronger, faster equaling "more productive" players has pretty much been settled. "Better" is in the eye of the beholder and is dependent on many variables that can not be extracted or accounted for through statistical analysis or the dreaded "eyeball" test.

Some fans will prefer 1-0, 2-0 pitching duels and some will continue to prefer the "chicks dig the long ball" era. The pendulum tends to swing from one extreme to another and back again.

The following article touches on many of the relevant areas of discussion.

DOES SIZE REALLY MATTER? Today's major leaguers are bigger and stronger than those of earlier eras - physical size of baseball players | Baseball Digest | Find Articles at BNET:

"Current baseball scouts generally focus their attention on larger prospects, particularly pitchers

BABE RUTH STILL STANDS AS ONE of the legendary giants of baseball, but if he were alive today, he would stand taller than only 48 percent of the players who were on major-league 40-man rosters at the start of spring training.

The Bambino was listed at 6-2 and 195 pounds before his weight became a major problem during the second half of his career. He is remembered as a much larger man because most newsreel footage of him was taken during his last few seasons-- and because he was always much bigger than the average player of his time.

But if the young, strapping Ruth were magically transported into the 21st century, he would not stand out in the team picture of any major-league club. His wonderful baseball skills aside, he would be--in terms of vital statistics--a very average guy."

The 1927 "Murderers' Row" New York Yankees were one of the most dominating, intimidating teams in history, yet the average height and weight of a member of that storied group, even with such big bruisers as Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Bob Meusel at the heart of the lineup, was just 5-11 and 176 pounds.

The 1975 world champion Cincinnati Reds--immortalized as "The Big Red Machine"--illustrated what a difference a half-century can make. The players on that Reds club averaged 6-1 and 188 pounds.

The 2001 three-time defending world champion Yankees are not really known as one of the most physically imposing teams on the planet, but they weigh in with an average height and weight of 6-2 and 204 pounds.

Changes.....through the years. Sometimes, it's difficult to see the forest for the trees and remember how things used to be in the 'good old days'. Then you see an old ESPN classic and you realize that "Hey, Jennie Finch actually looks more athletic than some major leaguers from the 70's appeared.

BUD HARRELSON - 1969 METS 5'11", 165 POUNDS (MAYBE)

JENNIE FINCH - USA!!! USA!!! - 6'1", 170 POUNDS

Advantage Finch!!!!

My money is on Finch even if it goes this far...

Specialization and AAU-ization...always a factor. Participation in other sports, in conjunction with or to the exclusion of other sports has changed the landscape somewhat.

If it were totally a matter of evolution, the process presumably would take place at a much slower rate. It appears, in this case, that the Darwinian notion of natural selection has been replaced with just plain selection. Baseball players are taller because scouts are out looking for taller baseball players.

"In our industry, as far as evaluating talent, you're driven to larger bodies," said Cardinals director of baseball operations John Mozeliak. "When you go to the Dominican Republic, for instance, you get all these kids at the tryouts. The first thing you look at is how a guy looks in the uniform. You're very unlikely to give any money to a guy who's 5-9 and 170 pounds."

This isn't necessarily a new concept, but several other factors may contribution to the greater availability of tall athletes during the past decade or so--most notably a vast increase in the number and diversity of youth sports programs.

The average 1960s kid played Little League and maybe Pop Warner football. The 1980s kid also had soccer, basketball and other team and individual sports to keep them active year-round.

"I think one thing that's happening is that participation is at its highest level as far as youth sports, so the pool of talent to choose from has grown," said Cardinals trainer Barry Weinstein. "And you're developing a more well-rounded athlete, so a kid doesn't have to like basketball just because he's 6-9."

And the generational shift from sandlot sports to highly organized youth programs probably has the added effect of weeding out kids with less natural athletic ability much earlier--creating a better youth talent pool at the expense of some of the young people they were supposed to benefit.

You can see from the following table that HR champs have been getting bigger over the course of the last few decades. The typical HR slugger from the good old days would be average sized today.

BIG LEAGUE SLUGGERS ARE GETTING BIGGER--Despite the fact that league home run champions have had little change in size over the last 80 years, the most dramatic change has been the number of power hitters. From 1921 through 1940, hitting 40 or more homers in a season was accomplished 32 times by 12 different players. From 1941 through 1960, it was accomplished 44 times by 17 different sluggers. From 1961 through 1980, the number rose to 54 times that a player hit 40 homers in a season, reached by 30 different players. And during the last 20 years (1981-2000), the number of 40-homer hitters jumped to 98 times accomplished by 49 different players. Below is a chart of the average size of league home run champions dating back to 1921.

Total Avg. Avg. Avg.
ERA HR Champs Height Weight HR Output

1991-2000 15 6-3 218 48
1981-1990 20 6-3 208 40
1971-1980 13 6-2 201 40
1961-1970 11 6-1 202 46
1951-1960 15 6-1 194 42
1941-1950 13 6-0 195 36
1931-1940 11 6-0 194 40
1921-1930 10 6-0 187 41

Largest HR Smallest HR
ERA Champion Champion

1991-2000 Mark McGwire (6-5, 250) Howard Johnson (5-11, 178)
1981-1990 Jose Canseco (6-4, 240) Kevin Mitchell (5-11, 210)
1971-1980 Dave Kingman (6-6, 210) Dick Allen (5-11, 190)
1961-1970 Frank Howard (6-7, 255) Willie Mays (5-11, 180)
1951-1960 Hank Sauer (6-4, 200) Al Rosen (5-10, 180)
1941-1950 Hank Greenberg (6-3-210) Mel Ott (5-9, 170)
1931-1940 Hank Greenberg (6-3, 210) Ripper Collins (5-9, 165)
1921-1930 Babe Ruth (6-2, 215) Hack Wilson (5-6, 190)

COPYRIGHT 2001 Century Publishing
COPYRIGHT 2001 Gale Group

From the table in this article, the player of today has to compete against more potential players today than ever before, even with expansion. Although they do accommodate for the exclusion of black and Hispanic players in the past, the pre-war major leaguer did not see the diversity of talent culled from around the globe that today's player competes against.



Another factor, to be considered but not readily apparent from the table above is the effect of the various wars on the availability of 18 - 30 year old males, a crucial variable at times.

Think of how much that talent pool was diluted during the war years -- a time during which "One-armed" Pete Gray played.

Pete Gray, Universal Newsreels, 1945.ogv
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pete_Gray,_Universal_Newsreels,_1945.ogv

Other current stars gave up years of their career to the war effort, as illustrated in the following two articles.

Baseball in Wartime
http://www.baseballinwartime.com/

Baseball in Wartime is dedicated to preserving the memories of all baseball players (major league, negro league, minor league, semi-pro, college, amateur and high school), who served with the military between 1940 and 1946.

World War II was a trying time for the United States and equally so for baseball. More than 4,500 professional players swapped flannels for military uniforms to serve their nation and future Hall of Famers like Bob Feller, Hank Greenberg, Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams lost vital playing time in the prime of their careers. What is far less commonly known is that at least 130 minor league players lost their lives while serving their country.

Major League Baseball's Popularity During WWII by Joey Corso
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/161265-major-league-baseballs-popularity-during-wwii

Before WWII began, Major League Baseball enjoyed record popularity. Ted Williams batted a record-setting .406, Joe DiMaggio, set a record with hits in 56 consecutive games, 41-year-old Lefty Grove won his 300th career win, and the New York Yankees collected an unprecedented ninth World Series championship.(Baseball in Wartime)

Following Pearl Harbor, overwhelming patriotism spread throughout the nation, causing many young men to enlist including future Hall of Fame players Hank Greenburg and Bob Feller who gave up the prime their careers to be a part of the war effort.

Greenburg summed up what all players at the time were feeling, telling the Sporting News that “If there's any last message to be given to the public, let it be that I'm going to be a good soldier.”

Although a small minority of Americans expressed displeasure towards apparently fit men participating in sports and shirking military duties, Private John E Stevenson, expressed the more widely held view that, "baseball is part of the American way of life. Remove it and you remove something from the lives of American citizens, soldiers and sailors."

Along with future Hall of Famers, many other quality major league players enlisted or were drafted, significantly lowering the quality of play. Average players were now stars, and scrubs who were destined to be career minor leaguers received opportunities to play significant roles on big league clubs.

Using David Finoli’s highly embraced statistical formula, as seen in For the Good of the Country: World War II Baseball in the Major and Minor Leagues, a list of the top 64 ball players during the war seasons (1942-1945) was developed, headed by a Roy Sanders.

Although a fine player, it was clear a somewhat obscure player today, benefited playing against lesser competition. This can be seen by comparing his statistics during and after the war.

The list contains several other fine players, but does not include a future Hall of Fame player until the 14th player on the list, Cleveland Indians shortstop Lou Boudreau. Four highly productive seasons along with six to eight above average ones can usually make a player’s case for entry into the Hall of Fame.

Yet none of the top 13 players during the war made the Hall, proving that these players were unable to perform at the same level when up against the best and that statistically speaking the level of play during the time was lower.

Over time, we have seen baseball players, and the game at large, adapt to many significant changes that have collided to bring about many of the observed changes to the perceived caliber of play.

- The mound was lowered in 1969 from 15 inches to 10 inches in height after the dominance of pitching ( think Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA ). As a result, scouts and coaches preferred to select taller pitchers to make up the lost difference in leverage the lower mound provided. The short (under 6-foot) RHP became an endangered species in baseball as a result IMO.

- Free agency and guaranteed contracts resulting from the Curt Flood battle against the Reserve Clause has resulted in players beginning treated as more valuable commodities. Prior to 1969, even star players were considered expendable if productivity diminished even slightly. Players were on year to year contracts, security was day to day. Pitch Counts and increased use of bullpen specialists has been the slow, but inevitable outgrowth.

Structural changes such as Astroturf, Questec and increased use of PED's have brought about both observed and statistical changes and anomalies that can never be fully accounted for and so the debate will continue forever.

If you don't think that Questec was a huge and underrated development in the offense / defense equilibrium, take a look at the "strikes" called in some of those Braves - Twins World Series highlights or the infamous Eric Gregg / Livan Hernandez playoff game. There's a reason why Curt Schilling took a bat to an early version of Questec machinery that was in the Diamondbacks dugout. The handwriting was on the wall that a subtle but important pitching advantage was about to be lost.

It's one reason why I like to look to the Olympic sports, specifically track and field or swimming events, to observe and evaluate macro changes in athletes over different eras. The skill sports are too complex to assess causes and effects. The Olympic sports are ideal for statistical analysis because of their inherent simplicity: Running is a universal and fundamental athletic event. Distances don't change, gravity and friction are constants. Even in swimming, the resistance that water provides doesn't change materially over time.

----

In swimming, the 1924 Men's Olympic champion and symbol of virility for machismo for the era, Johnny Weismuller of Tarzan fame, swam a 59.0 sec. 100 meter freestyle.

USA'S JOHNNY WEISMULLER - 1924 PARIS OLYMPICS CHAMPION

In the 2008 Beijing Olympics, Germany's Britta Steffen swam the same event in 53.12 seconds. American Natalie Coughlin swan it in 53.39 seconds for an American record. Both times would have obliterated Weismuller's time.

GERMANY'S BRITTE STEFFEN - 2008 BEJING OLYMPIC CHAMPION

In fact, Weismuller's time would have finished 47th in the world in the 2008 100 meter freestyle qualifying heats. In the women's qualifying heats.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swimming_at_the_1924_Summer_Olympics_-_Men%27s_100_metre_freestyle

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swimming_at_the_2008_Summer_Olympics_-_Women%27s_100_metre_freestyle


---

In track and field, the 1936 Olympic champion Jesse Owens would be challenged to beat the current women's 100 meter champion, Jamaica's Shelly-Ann Fraser. Owens won the 1936 event with a 10.3 sec. time. Fraser's 2008 100 meter time of 10.78 would have placed her sixth in the 1936 men's 100 meter championship heat and made her the fourth fastest American at the time.

Jesse Owens was 5'10" and 165. Fraser tips in at 5'3" and 115. A shorter version, pound for pound of Owens. Looking at some of these comparisons, I am with David Wells -- a Babe Ruth fan -- when he says "15-70-.270" to state what he believes Babe Ruth's stat line would be today.

No night games, no sliders, he may have been exaggerating a little bit, but not by much.

The pre-war American athlete, in many instances, can only compare favorably to female athletes today. Once again demonstrating that the Nixon-era Title IX legislation may have been one of the most underrated pieces of legislation of all time in this country.

There are simply too many factors to consider to make a definitive answer to the underlying question we started with, which is why this question will continue to be fuel for debate for many generations to come.

Do Scores on a Tachistoscope Test Correlate With B... [Eye Contact Lens. 2011] - PubMed result

Do Scores on a Tachistoscope Test Correlate With B... [Eye Contact Lens. 2011] - PubMed result: "Do Scores on a Tachistoscope Test Correlate With Baseball Batting Averages?
Reichow AW, Garchow KE, Baird RY.
Source

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21471813

From Nike Inc. (A.W.R), Beaverton, OR; Dr. Noles Optometrists (K.E.G.), Lake Oswego, OR; and United States Air Force ROTC (R.Y.B), Brigham Young University, Provo, UT.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:
Millions of dollars are spent each year by individuals seeking to improve their athletic performance. One area of visual training is the use of the tachistoscope, which measures inspection time or visual recognition time. Although the potential of the tachistoscope as a training tool has received some research attention, its use as a means of measurement or predictor of athletic ability in sports has not been explored. The purpose of this pilot study is to assess the potential of the tachistoscope as a measurement instrument by determining if a baseball player's ability to identify a tachistoscopically presented picture of a pitch is correlated with hitting performance as measured by batting average."

METHODS:
Using sport-specific slides, 20 subjects-all non-pitching members of the Pacific University Baseball Team-were administered a tachistoscopic test. The test consisted of identifying the type of pitch illustrated in 30 randomly ordered slides depicting a pitcher throwing four different baseball pitches. Each slide was presented for 0.2 sec. The results of the test were compared with the athlete's previous season's batting average.

RESULTS:
A positive correlation was found between an athlete's ability to correctly identify a picture of a pitch presented tachistoscopically and batting average (r=0.648; P<0.01). These results suggest that a superior ability to recognize pitches presented via tachistoscope may correlate with a higher skill level in batting. CONCLUSIONS: Tachistoscopic test scores correlated positively with batting averages. The tachistoscope may be an acceptable tool to help in assessing batting performance. Additional testing with players from different sports, different levels of ability, and different tachistoscopic times should be performed to determine if the tachistoscope is a valid measure of athletic ability. Implications may also be drawn in other areas such as military and police work.

--- IMPROVED READING CENTRES (UK) TACHTISCOPE TEST:

http://www.angelfire.com/nb/improvedreading/tachistoscope.htm

SF Giants' 'beautiful' visit to White House

It seems fitting to me that Willie Mays would be extended more attention and respect than the President, even on his own plane. I was glad to see that the President was briefed on the background of the Giants marquee players, he seemed to know more about some of the Gigantes than he did his own White Sox. Great to see the Giants honored.

SF Giants' 'beautiful' visit to White House:

"The biggest cheers and longest ovation went not for the current Giants nor Obama, but for Willie Mays, who was introduced like so many foreign dignitaries who visit the White House.

Obama had fun with the Say Hey Kid at his own expense as he recounted his trip to the 2009 All-Star Game on Air Force One, with Mays on the flight as Obama's guest.

'It was an extraordinary trip,' Obama said. 'Very rarely when I'm on Air Force One am I the second most important guy on there. Everybody was just passing me by (and saying), 'Can I get you something, Mr. Mays?' '

More applause greeted the president's acknowledgment of the Giants' deeds in the community. He specifically cited Barry Zito's 'Strikeout for Troops' and the Giants being the first team to publicly support 'It Gets Better,' a campaign against bullying, particularly targeting gay youth, in hopes of stemming suicides.

'So that's what this team is about - characters with character,' Obama said. 'Even though this team is a little different, even though these players haven't always followed the traditional rules, one thing they know is how to win.'"

Transcript of the event:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/nov05election/detail?entry_id=93898

Video Highlights of the event:
http://bleacherreport.com/tb/bad8h

Giants Trade Rumors continue

Still torn on who I would most like to see. All depends on who has to go to make it all happen. It looks like the Cards are serious about dealing Colby Rasmus with the White Sox stepping up. The Rays call-up of their next phenom in waiting, Desmond Jennings, makes B.J. Upton all the more expendable. Soriano and Beltran are still on the hook as well. For those two veterans, the amount of salary dollars paid and by whom further complicates the equation.

Add one of these guys, sprinkle some Brandon Belt into the lineup more frequently and the return of Tejada / DeRosa from the DL and the lineup could make a late playoff push similar to last year.

Getting to the nitty-gritty at the trade deadline - MLB - Yahoo! Sports:

"As one general manager put it this week: “[B.J.] Upton and Rasmus are better long term, but if I want to win this year, I’m getting Beltran.”"

---

POSTGAME NOTES: Brian Wilson’s five-pitch save ends a playoff-charged night, SF fans toy with Plush, Runzler drawing attention | Extra Baggs:

"Why all the ink on Runzler all of the sudden? Well, I keep hearing that other clubs are bringing up his name in almost every trade proposal. I’m pretty sure the Giants would not sacrifice Zack Wheeler, Gary Brown or Brandon Belt to get Carlos Beltran. But would they cross the bridge with Runzler and maybe Francisco Peguero? Would that be enough for the Mets?

Wherever Beltran goes, you can bet the Giants will be active on him until the end."

----

Extra Baggs:

"GM Brian Sabean stopped by the dugout and said there is nothing imminent on the trade front, but that the Giants continue talk to multiple teams, not just the Mets about Carlos Beltran. He said with a thin talent pool, he would actually like to see a couple more teams fall out of their respective races — he didn’t name them, but the Chicago White Sox, Tampa, Minnesota and Cincinnati fit the mold — to improve the selection. He said flatly that at present, he doesn’t think the Giants can improve their situations at catcher or at shortstop because of the slim pickings.

Relating to shortstop, I asked Bruce Bochy if it’s possible Jeff Keppinger might see some time at short and he said possibly, even though he hasn’t played there this year.

As for Beltran, Sabean intimated that with several teams in the hunt, it likely will go down to the trading deadline as the Mets look for the best possible deal."

----

San Francisco Giants Baseball (SF Giants Rumors):

"With the trading deadline drawing near, Sabean say the Giants do have the flexibility to take on payroll, and said it’s tough to give up a premium prospect.
“We certainly won’t give up an untouchable (prospect),” says Sabean."

More Debt, Deficit and Default Madness....Your Tax Dollars at Work

Cliff Küle's Notes: "U.S. is Defaulting Now?

'Every time the Federal Reserve engages in more quantitative easing and devalues the dollar, it is defaulting on the American people by eroding their purchasing power and inflating their savings away. The dollar has lost nearly 50% of its value against gold since 2008 .. This is a default. Just because it is a default on the people and not the banks and foreign holders of our debt does not mean it doesn't count.'"

----
from Agora Financial:

“You may not know this, but the U.S. has actually defaulted a number of times already,” writes Chris Mayer this morning. He cites five instances:

1779: The government was unable to redeem the continental currency issued during the Revolutionary War

1782: The Colonies defaulted on the debt they took out to pay for the war

1862: During the Civil War, the Union failed to redeem dollars for gold at terms stated by the debt contracts

1934: FDR defaults on the debt issued to finance World War I, refusing to redeem it in gold. The dollar is devalued 40% against gold

1979: A bureaucratic snafu results in interest going unpaid on some small bills.

“With the exception of 1979,” Chris says, “which was mostly due to administrative confusion — the U.S. simply ran out of money each time. The end result was the dollar had to be devalued. Meaning it lost significant purchasing power.

“My guess is that the U.S. will default again. It may not technically be called that, but the only way for the U.S. to meet its financial obligations is to print a lot of money.”

------

According to Ron Paul op-ed in Bloomberg:

The U.S. government defaulted at least three times on its obligations during the 20th century.

-- In 1934, the government banned ownership of gold and eliminated the right to exchange gold certificates for gold coins. It then immediately revalued gold from $20.67 per troy ounce to $35, thus devaluing the dollar holdings of all Americans by 40 percent.

-- From 1934 to 1968, the federal government continued to issue and redeem silver certificates, notes that circulated as legal tender that could be redeemed for silver coins or silver bars. In 1968, Congress unilaterally reneged on this obligation, too.

-- From 1934 to 1971, foreign governments were permitted by the U.S. government to exchange their dollars for gold through the gold window. In 1971, President Richard Nixon severed this final link between the dollar and gold by closing the gold window, thus in effect defaulting once again on a debt obligation of the U.S. government.

---

The idea that an increase in the debt ceiling is a solution to anything is nonsense. Calling an increase in the debt ceiling a solution to a debt problem, is too stupid to be stupid. - Jim Sinclair

The most fascinating aspect of the debt limit "debate" is the contention by all the authorities that the US government can "preserve, protect and defend" its full faith and credit merely by increasing the amount they are giving themselves permission to spend. This is a wondrous argument. All that it necessary to preserve one's "solvency" is to borrow more money, preferably MUCH more money. One wonders why it hasn't worked in other countries, like Greece or Spain or Portugal or Ireland or Italy for example. - Bill Buckler, Gold This Week, July 16, 2011

---

This isn't event mark to market anymore, this is mark to fantasy accounting gimmickry:

Senate Votes to Set Aside 'Cut, Cap and Balance' Plan Proposed by House GOP - FoxNews.com:


"Sources close to the budget talks in Washington told Fox Business Network that the emerging Obama-Boehner deal will likely incorporate a major gimmick to count more than $1 trillion in budget savings over the next decade -- winding down the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The wars were being wound down anyway, but by assuming the costs of the wars continue at current levels for a decade, Obama and Boehner can claim $1 trillion in savings. The headline number would also add hundreds of billions in interest savings on the so-called war savings.

Further, the deal could allow modest changes in entitlements, such as replacing the inflation measure used in Social Security, but would otherwise extract little in savings over the next 10 years from the real drivers of the long term fiscal crisis, Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security."


---
Study: Gov't. Payouts Are a Third of U.S. "Income"

Study: Gov't. Payouts Are a Third of U.S. "Income":

"If it sometimes feels like almost everyone is on the government dole except you, there may be a reason for that sensation: According to a recent study one-third of all income in the United States comes in various forms of “social welfare benefits.”

The trend toward a growing proportion of the population relying on government programs instead of labor for its income has been an observable phenomena since at least the days President Johnson’s “Great Society” programs were initiated in the mid-1960s. Now, however, the percentage of income received from the government is equal to half of all income received from working for a living, and federal and state budget deficits are metastasizing as politicians whose reelection depends on giving away “other people’s money” find themselves running out of working citizens to tax.

As reported by CNBC, the study by TrimTabs Investment Research revealed that “Government payouts — including Social Security, Medicare and unemployment insurance — make up more than a third of total wages and salaries of the U.S. population, a record figure that will only increase if action isn’t taken before the majority of Baby Boomers enter retirement.”"

from American Thinker blog:
The 70-Million-Check Constituency
By Michael Filozof
http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/07/the_70-million-check_constituency.html

Seventy million government checks! In a population of 309 million, almost 23% of the population is receiving some kind of check from the federal government.

For the left, money is not something that is earned. Money happens. It happens when you know the right people. If you are a college professor and you make the right impression at enough faculty cocktail parties, one day you will be tenured and named department chair and money happens. If you are an "activist" or a "community organizer" and you hobnob with people from the right foundations, money happens. If you are a Hollywood actress, you spend a couple of hours a day on the set pretending you are a prostitute or a murderer and then go snort cocaine all night, and money happens.

....Obama is a poster boy for the "money happens" mentality. Obama held one private-sector job in his entire life, which he characterized as "behind enemy lines." Obama never published anything as the first black president of the Harvard Law Review. Obama never published anything as a college instructor in constitutional law. Obama was given a publisher's advance for his memoirs -- after a life of accomplishing nothing -- and immediately encountered "writer's block" and sought help. In all probability his two books are ghostwritten. Yet Obama is a multimillionaire, largely from the sales of his books. For him, money happened. Obama's wife, Michelle, made a lousy hundred grand with her Harvard Law degree as vice-president for "community relations" at a Chicago hospital. When her husband was elected U.S. Senator in 2004, the hospital coincidentally decided that she deserved a raise of $200,000. For Michelle, money happened.

.....For the left, because "money happens," there's simply no limit to the things that should be paid for by the government. If you look at the pie charts in the instruction booklet for your Form 1040, you'll see that only 22% of spending goes to "national defense and foreign affairs" and a mere two percent to "law enforcement and general government." The rest -- nearly three-quarters of the budget -- goes to retirement, disability, Medicaid, Medicare, job training, agriculture, Food Stamps, housing assistance, "community development," and so on. From school lunches to saving the snail darter to funding Planned Parenthood to anti-obesity programs to developing electric cars to farm subsidies, government funds just about everything. And it's still not enough. Enumerated powers be damned.

Republicans cannot cut government spending without losing elections, and Democrats know it. They cannot raise taxes without losing elections, either, and the Democrats know that, too. So the Republicans will cave on the debt limit and allow the government to borrow even more than the $14 trillion we're already in hock.

Ultimately this problem will not be resolved by the political class. It will be resolved by the market, when lenders believe that the government is so far in debt that it is no longer worth lending to.

---

The Ryan Vogelsong story continues -- AMAZING clip from 'The Franchise'

OK, I admit -- I'm biased -- but this is just such a wonderful story.



Vogelsong's Father In-Law - The Franchise: A Season with the San Francisco Giants - SHOWTIME

Giant's pitcher Ryan Vogelsong and his wife Nicole remember the inspirational father in-law who provided non-stop emotional support throughout the rocky early years of the player's career.

----

I could watch this every day...or until the next episode comes out. GREAT STUFF.

The Jeremy Affeldt speech about the Stow incident....the clips of the guys leaving their families for the early season road trip....the Posey incident....the Cody Ross Experience.....Barry Zito's struggles....Panda's weight (and BA) fluctuations.....lots of great feature and story lines. And did I forget to mention the madcaps Aubrey Huff and Brian Wilson?

One of the faces of the franchise -- Lincecum -- is barely feature in Episode One (I think DeRosa appeared more often) and it was still pretty good.

TO THE VICTORS, GO THE SPOILS.

The Franchise: A Seaso...: Episode One - SHOWTIME Baseball

Watch the full one-hour first episode of SHOWTIME's new docu-series. Winning the World Series proves to be a tough act to follow for the San Francisco Giants. Episode one follows the team's biggest players Buster Posey, Matt Cain, Brian Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, Tim Lincecum, and Pablo Sandoval through the early days of the season.

I thought sophists abhorred the use of metaphors anyway??

Can we PLEASE STOP with the use of inaccurate metaphors such as this one in an attempt to explain the debt gridlock to those of us with 'lesser' intelligence?

On Michele Bachmann's migraines:

"Me? I am more concerned about Bachmann's promise to vote against any bill that raises the debt ceiling. Congress bought the car years ago, and put some miles on it; now Bachmann argues that it is moral to avoid the car payments - that's what scares me."

or this one....

Kitchen Table Debate: Families Manage to Balance Budgets, Government Fails to Do the Same - FoxNews.com:

"'A family, if they get over-extended and their credit card it too high, they don't just stop paying their bills,' he said."

It hasn't helped us push the car out of the ditch and now we have no clue where the damn keys are because the driver and the passenger are too busy fighting over them.

What the TP and other fiscal conservatives concerned about our fiscal condition seem to be saying instead is more along the following lines. I'm sure we've all had similar experiences with our friendly credit card representative or bank loan officer.

"Before we give you the credit limit increase you're requesting Mr. & Mrs. Congress, we notice that your FICO score is lower than it's been the past few times we've granted you an increase. You are now -- what we refer to as -- a sub-prime client. Not trying to pass judgement and I do see that you have been a quality client in the past. It just seems as if things have taken a change for the worse for you recently. I hope you understand our position in this matter.

Our concern RIGHT NOW is, you may not be quite as good a risk to pay us back as you've been in the past.

Perhaps you may need to take some credit counseling classes or maybe a Dave Ramsey course or two before we grant THIS increase. Nothing personal (or racially motivated, for that matter) about it.

You understand, it's just good business practice.

After that Messrs. Moody and Standard & Poors would like to review your plan before we decide on your new credit limit and (higher) interest rate. Have a nice day."

GET A CLUE, FOLKS. (Catch Phrase Alert) IT'S THE DEBT, STUPID!!!

And BTW, grossly misrepresenting peoples position in such a fashion is not a good way to generate good faith bargaining, the old "reach across the aisle" BS we keep hearing. If someone misrepresented me like that it would demonstrate that they either didn't listen very well or had no intention of working with you in the first place.

And BTW II, credit limit increases or debt limit increases, should only apply to 'future' purchases or expenditures, not past charges. Or am I missing something?

Hell, if you could call your CC company and get an extension for shit you've already charged, there would be no such thing as OVER-LIMIT FEES.

Or maybe I need the 'Fiscally Prudent to Crack-Head Economics' translator.

Why either side wastes valuable time trying to continue to score rhetorical points when anyone with a pulse and an IQ over room temperature know that both parties are at fault for past sins, IDK. Just get it done people.

A better Brandon Belt returns

Now he should be ready to contribute with the bat. Maybe the game has slowed down enough for him that he can show why he is the Giants #1 prospect (on most lists).

Brandon Belt's big hits power Giants over Dodgers:

"Aubrey Huff was stretching near the indoor batting cage on a night off Tuesday until Brandon Belt stepped to the plate in the second inning. Huff said he remarked to those around him, 'I'm going upstairs and watch myself be Wally Pipped.'"

The rookie did not want to get deep into the count and have to hit a breaking pitch from a tough lefty, so he devoured the first pitch and lined it just inside the left-field line for the decisive double.

"The thing I like was that he was aggressive," Bochy said. "He jumped on the first pitch. That's what you want to see from a young player. Sometimes they're a little tentative. He wasn't."

----

I like the trade for UTIL IF Jeff Keppinger. Sosa has dropped off the prospect radar and Stoffel may be another year away. Keppinger provides solid depth across the IF and a decent bat. Stoffel will be a solid set up man or closer in the future, so he will be missed, but you have to give up something to get something and it seems as if the Giants are limited with similar type arms throughout their system. Good deal.

from Yahoo Sports:

INF Jeff Keppinger was acquired from Houston in exchange for minor league RHPs Henry Sosa and Jason Stoffel. Keppinger, who was batting .307 with the Astros, is expected to be at second base against the Dodgers on Wednesday. He is arbitration-eligible for two more years.

1B Brandon Belt was recalled from Class AAA Fresno, and he homered in his first at-bat and also hit a based-loaded double. Belt, the Giants' Opening Day first baseman, was batting .324 at Fresno. Manager Bruce Bochy said that Aubrey Huff remains the Giants' first baseman; Belt played first Tuesday, but he also can play in the outfield.

"I frikkin' hate facing him. He's a frikkin' two-strike nightmare. You get two strikes on him and he won't go away. He's always been a tough out for me."
—Giants RHP Matt Cain, on new acquisition Jeff Keppinger, in the San Francisco Chronicle.

New Beltran Trade Wrinkle

If the SI.com article referenced is correct and the Mets are only looking for a single prospect, this may be do-able. I think B.J. Upton would have a more dynamic impact, he seems like a consummate NL player, but the Rays would look for the top-tier arms in the organization, without question.

New Beltran Trade Wrinkle

From Adam Rubin of ESPN New York comes word that the Mets are willing to cover the roughly $6 million left on Carlos Beltran‘s contract to facilitate a potential trade.

“From what I gather, they are asking a lot for him because they are willing to pick up all of his salary,” the source told ESPNNewYork.com.

Jon Heyman of SI.com reported similar information earlier today, writing that the Mets “are willing to eat all or most” of Beltran’s remaining salary if they can get a top prospect in return.

The prospects are the major consideration, of course, but this is also an indication that Mets are attempting to expand the field of potential suitors to as many teams as possible. Beltran may not approve a trade to the Pirates or Indians, for instance, but the fact that they are involved in the talks could raise the stakes for teams like the Giants and Red Sox.

According to Heyman, Beltran would approve deals to the Giants, Tigers, Rangers, Red Sox, Phillies and Yankees among clubs that have expressed interest.

WOW!! Kevin Costner's team is having payroll issues

Lake County Fielders PBP Man Quits On Air
H/T to awfulannouncing.com

Say it ain't so, Crash.

Minor League Baseball Play By Play Man Quits On Air | July:

"The Lake County Fielders are a minor league baseball team that plays their baseball in Lake County just north of Chicago in the North American League.  The Fielders are partially owned by actor Kevin Costner, known for his own Minor League baseball exploits in Bull Durham.  The Fielders also happen to be the worst run organization in professional sports."

Dr. Coburn Releases $9 Trillion Deficit Reduction Plan - Press Releases - Tom Coburn, M.D., United States Senator from Oklahoma

So, now we have this plan, the Ryan plan, and the bipartisan Bowles-Simpson commission plan to reduce the deficits and the national debt. Pick one, or the best features from each and get on with it.

This shouldn't be so difficult.

Dr. Coburn Releases $9 Trillion Deficit Reduction Plan - Press Releases - Tom Coburn, M.D., United States Senator from Oklahoma:

"(WASHINGTON, D.C.) – U.S. Senator Tom Coburn, M.D. (R-OK) today released a new report “Back in Black” that outlines how the federal government can reduce the deficit by $9 trillion over the next ten years and balance the federal budget. The 614-page plan was the result of a thorough and exhaustive review of thousands of federal programs.

“The American people are tired of Washington waiting until the last minute to avoid a crisis, particularly when it is a crisis Washington itself created. The crisis, though, is not the debt limit deadline. The crisis is Congress’ refusal to make hard choices and reduce a debt that has become our greatest national security threat. The plan I am offering today gives Washington 9 trillion reasons to stop making excuses and start solving the problem,” Dr. Coburn said."

“Both parties will no doubt criticize portions of this plan and I welcome that debate. My goal is not to replace the work of the budget committees but to show the American people what is possible and necessary. What is not acceptable, however, is not having a plan and delaying reform until some perfect political moment that will never arrive. The fact is doing nothing is a tax increase, a benefit cut for seniors and the poor, and a betrayal of the core values both parties hold dear,” Dr. Coburn said.

All of the above mentioned plans dig into the details, but the approach should be fairly simple and above partisanship. We have a long economic track record to draw from.

I'll try to apply the K.I.S.S. (Keep It Simple Stupid) principle here:

- To balance ones budget, one must match Revenues and Expenses.

- Currently the government collects ~ 15% of GDP in Revenues. The long-term historical average is ~ 18%.

- Currently the government spends ~ 25% of GDP in Expenses. The long-term historical average here is much more variable, ranging from 18 - 23% of GDP. There are many reasons for the variability, but the middle of the range is around 20%.

- Everyone agrees that the 15% Revenues - 25% Expenses which produces 10% of GDP in deficits cannot continue.

- At some point we have to begin producing surpluses to even hope to ever pay down the mountain of accumulated debt.

- Applying the middle of the range figure of 20% of GDP as a Revenue and Expense goal in the short-term seems to make reasonable sense as a compromise number.

This would increase revenues from ~ $2.1T to ~ $2.8T and reduce expenses from ~ $3.5T to ~ $2.8T. And presto, a balanced budget. Leave it to the wonks to decide where to raise the revenue (some appealing targets out there) and where to trim the fat (also many, many fat targets).

The Republicans Cut, Cap and Balance proposal uses a 18% target. In the short-term, that may be too low. As a longer-term goal, 18-19% is pretty reasonable. We've survived as a nation with our belts tighter in the past.

Taking ~ $700B per year out of spending should more than meet the $4T goal over 10 years that the rating agencies are looking for to avoid a catastrophic downgrade.

This is not a difficult exercise fellas, most of the broad strokes can be agreed upon just by using simple math, some knowledge of history (without distortion and rhetoric) and the back of an envelope. Get It Done!!!

The following quote explains why it is different this time. To all those bozos who go on TV or the floor of Congress and spew venom that this is about race more than economics, the Bill Buckler quote explains pretty clearly why.

There is no plan to cut US government debt. There never has been a plan to cut US government debt. There has been no reduction in US government debt since 1960 - when the funded part totalled about 2 percent of today's total. Today, nearly half of every US Dollar spent by the federal government is borrowed. Today, the US government's annual budget is about fourteen times what its total funded debt was back in 1960. - Bill Buckler,Gold This Week...July 16,

But that's not enough for the President to engage in fear-mongering (why is it OK when Dems scare old people, but Repubs are mean spirited?) or his acolytes to engage in irrational race-baiting.

Sheila Jackson Lee asks "Why is this President Different?"



All the other past instances where the Debt Ceiling was raised, we were not staring down the gun barrel of a rating downgrade.

Apparently, Ms. Jackson-Lee forgets how respectfully and decently she and her ilk treated the previous President.

By the way, not raising the debt ceiling is simply not the same as defaulting on the debt. The debt still gets paid, other expenditures get delayed until they come up with a more credible plan.

Apparently one former President weighs in with his opinion that we should continue with our current "trailer-trash" theory of economics that says you should pay your maxed out credit card balance by asking the credit card company for a credit limit increase and more balance transfer checks.

This is the economic policy and budgetary maneuvering generally favored by meth-heads, crack-heads and trailer-trash nationwide. It's not the type of policy befitting the so-called greatest nation on earth.


from The American Spectator:
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/07/19/bill-clinton-on-debt-limit-id

The American Spectator takes issue with Clinton’s opinion on the matter, writing that the Fourteenth Amendment doe not call Congress to borrow monies whenever needed. Rather, the amendment instructs Congress to pay for what it spends:

Meaning it can choose to cut spending, raise taxes, or print more currency. Arguing as Clinton does would also license the president to print more currency in order to pay the bills, effectively running down the value of the dollar.

It‘s like saying that once you’ve maxed out all your credit cards, you have no choice but to transfer the balance to a new credit card.

A Short History of US Credit Defaults - John S. Chamberlain - Mises Daily

Apparently, we have defaulted on our debts before and -- if the debt talks in DC are any indication -- we may well do it again. The following article provides a concise history of past events in the history of the U.S.

It does not seem to be a matter of will we (or Europe for that matter) default, but in what manner we choose to default -- i.e. Who gets the shaft?


From the mises.org:
A Short History of US Credit Defaults - John S. Chamberlain - Mises Daily: "What Will Happen in August of 2011?

Many people are wondering about the possibility of a default by the Treasury on August 3, 2011, when, according to the Treasury's projections, it will no longer be able to meet all expenses without additional borrowing.

In this event, it is unlikely a default will occur. Historically, governments prioritize debt service above all other expenses. If the expansion of funds via debt becomes impossible, the Treasury will cease paying other expenses first, starting with 'nonessential' discretionary expenditures, and then move on to mandatory expenditures and entitlements as a last resort.

In extremis, what will happen is that all the losses will be foisted onto the Federal Reserve. The Fed holds something on the order of $1.6 trillion in debt issued by the Treasury of the United States. By having the Federal Reserve purchase blocks of Treasury debt and defaulting on these non-investor-held securities, the United States can postpone a default against real investors essentially forever."

MLB Trade Deadline News 2011: Buster Olney Thinks B.J. Upton Makes Sense for Giants - SB Nation Bay Area

Upton is the guy I would most like to see the Giants go out and get to invigorate the offense.

Maybe Colby Rasmus or Michael Cuddyer after that. Alphonso Soriano may still be available and worth the risk.

Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and Aramis Ramirez are lesser fits due to money, years under contract or the bugaboo "He's a heck of a player when he decides to play". Who wants a guy who doesn't want to play for extended periods of time? Of course, that comment may have been made about Upton and Soriano a time or two as well. There are reasons these guys are available.

I would list Brandon Belt, Gary Brown and Zach Wheeler as off limits in any deal, but almost any package of other available parts would be worth it. IMO.


MLB Trade Deadline News 2011: Buster Olney Thinks B.J. Upton Makes Sense for Giants - SB Nation Bay Area:

"We're still about two weeks out from the MLB trade deadline, but the rumor mill continues to churn out new stories. ESPN's Buster Olney stated on his blog Sunday that the San Francisco Giants would be a terrific fit for Tampa Bay Rays Outfielder B.J. Upton as Tampa continues to weigh it's options with the 26 year old outfielder. "

Here's Buster's breakdown of the situation, which I remind you is purely speculation:

San Francisco doesn't typically make deals with the Padres, who have Ludwick, or with the Athletics, who have Willingham, and they might not want to pay the necessary price for Beltran. Upton would fit the Giants' park with his defense, and he would be under control for San Francisco through next year.

The stumbling blocks for such a deal are plentiful, especially with the Giants unwilling to trade top prospects for big name players right now. That would likely mean an outfielder on the Giants roster would have to go, and I don't see the Rays taking Pat Burrell back, picking up Aaron Rowand's gigantic contract, nor do I see the Giants letting go of Nate Schierholtz, Cody Ross or Andres Torres right now. The Giants need a bigger bat than Josh Willingham or Ryan Ludwick can bring (especially now with Ludwick slumping) and if they don't want to pay the price for Beltran, they might be digging through the wavier claim pile once more looking for gold.