The Pirates Are The Luckiest Team In Baseball? Says Business Insider or Pythagorus?

He doesn't look like a baseball guy, this Pythagorus

Not so fast there, Skippy!!! Why wouldn't the Phillies or even the Rangers be the luckiest team in baseball and not the Pirates?

There is a caveat at the bottom of the linked article that might explain:

* Win-loss records are not always the best indicator of how well a team is playing. To get a better sense, we can use run differential, or the difference between the number of runs scored and the number of runs given up. We can then use those numbers to calculate a record that is more reflective of how well that team played, using a formula called Pythagorean Win Percentage which tells us how many games a team should have won.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-the-pirates-are-the-luckiest-team-in-baseball-2013-8#ixzz2akrWnmca

The problem with the Pythagorean Win Percentage is that a couple of blow outs in either direction ( for / against ) can skew the results, especially in a relatively small sample ( like 100 or less games ).

Also, a good / bad record in one-run games will tilt the results slightly more than expected in one direction or the other. Although, I happen to think that is a pretty good indicator of a solid club and / or manager and / or bullpen. 

But they don't care about those little details, you've already read the linked article to get that far. Crafty devils at Business Insider. Other than those pesky details, the Pythagorean Win Percentage is a pretty good guess-timator for win - loss records over the course of a season. I wouldn't say a team that over or under performs does so on the basis of luck. You owe the pesky Pirates an apology Business Insider.

I hope they do a better job of interpreting balance sheets and income statements as they do box scores and baseball results.

And don't blame old Pythagorus, he's been dead for centuries and he never heard of baseball.

		Home Tech Finance Markets Politics Strategy Entertainment Advertising Retail Sports Life Thursday, Aug 1, 2013 The Pirates Are The Luckiest Team In Baseball The surprising Pirates have a 2.5 game lead in their division. But the only reason the Pirates have a lead at all is because they have been the luckiest team in baseball. We compared every team's actual record to their expected record based on how many runs each team has scored and allowed. The chart below shows us all the teams that have either won at least 2.5 more games than expected (blue) or have lost at least 2.5 games more than expected. The Tigers have been the unluckiest team and probably should be leading their division by more than two games. But we also see that the Pirates are lucky to have a 2.5 game lead over the Cardinals and a 6.0 game lead over the Reds. Not only have the Pirates won 3.6 more games than expected, but the two teams directly behind them have been unlucky have won fewer games than expected. If each team played as expected, the Pirates would be in third place in their division, five games behind the Cards and three games behind the Reds... Read »