Will Hunter Pence be singing or serenaded Wednesday night?

I guarantee you the Pirates fans will serenade Hunter Pence with this should things not go well for the Gigantes in Pittsburgh Wednesday night. It's not like he "guaranteed" a victory or anything, but you now how cruel fans can be. They're just like little children, they just don't know any better.

The key to the game in my mind is, Bumgarner has to find a way to stop Josh Harrison. He's been the catalyst for them against the Giants. The rest of the lineup I think he's OK with. Russell Martin seems to be battling injuries, but he has a way of making his presence felt as well.

from MLB.com
Giants ready for wild environs in Pittsburgh | sfgiants.com:

Projected Giants starting lineup, past results against Volquez 
Gregor Blanco: 5-for-19, RBI
Joe Panik: N/A
Posey: 5-for-12, RBI, two doubles
Pablo Sandoval: 6-for-13, three RBIs, three doubles
Hunter Pence: 7-for-36, three homers, nine RBIs
Brandon Belt: 8-for-18, one homer, five RBIs
Brandon Crawford: 3-for-20
Travis Ishikawa: 1-for-4, RBI

Projected Pirates starting lineup, past results against Bumgarner 
Josh Harrison: 4-for-5, one homer, RBI
Gregory Polanco: 0-for-1, RBI
Andrew McCutchen: 2-for-10
Neil Walker: 3-for-11, RBI
Russell Martin: 3-for-7, RBI
Starling Marte: N/A
Gaby Sanchez: 3-for-9, two RBIs
Jordy Mercer: 3-for-7

'via Blog this'

Vegas gives A's better World Series odds than Giants | CSN Bay Area

The A's have a slight advantage in the Vegas World Series odds at 11/1 while the Giants are at 12/1. (USATSI)

Vegas like the LA LA's. Giants have equal odds of getting to the World Series according to Vegas, but greater chance of winning the whole thing if they get there. Makes sense given prior history.

from CSN Bay Area:
Vegas gives A's better World Series odds than Giants | CSN Bay Area:

Odds to win the 2014 World Series

Los Angeles Angels -- 5/1
Los Angeles Dodgers -- 5/1
Washington Nationals -- 11/2
Detroit Tigers -- 6/1
Baltimore Orioles -- 13/2
St. Louis Cardinals -- 8/1
Oakland Athletics -- 11/1
San Francisco Giants -- 12/1
Pittsburgh Pirates -- 14/1
Kansas City Royals -- 16/1 

Odds to win the 2014 AL Pennant

Los Angeles Angels -- 2/1
Detroit Tigers -- 11/4
Baltimore Orioles -- 3/1
Oakland Athletics -- 6/1
Kansas City Royals -- 7/1 

Odds to win the 2014 NL Pennant

Los Angeles Dodgers -- 2/1
Washington Nationals -- 21/10
St. Louis Cardinals -- 17/4
Pittsburgh Pirates -- 13/2
San Francisco Giants -- 13/2  

'via Blog this'

Baseball America's Prospect Report pleasant reading for Giants fans

As the season draws to a close, the Baseball America Prospect Report has been a fantastic read for Giants fans on a near daily basis. Gary Brown gets an opportunity to show why he was a first round pick, Joe Panik ends the season as a .300+ hitter, Andrew Susac continues to show that he belongs, the bullpen rookies, Hunter Strickland, Eric Cordier, even perhaps Brett Bochy are showing signs that they can be major contributors.

SF		MAJ		Brown		1		1		1		1		.429
SF		MAJ		Panik		5		1		2		1		.305
SF		MAJ		Perez		2		0		1		0		.170
SF		MAJ		Susac		3		0		1		0		.273		2B (8)

SF

MAJ

Cordier

1

0

0

0

0

1

1.50

This sudden surge of talent should allay any fears that the Giants overpaid for Jake Peavy by sending Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree to the Sawks. Now, it would help even more if they can re-sign Peavy at a reasonable price, but that is a post for another day. Hopefully, Peavy gets a chance to pay more dividends to the Giants in the playoffs. Madison Bumgarner will have a big say in that when the Giants touch down in Pittsburgh.

The (much maligned) Giants scouting and development staff can rightly stand proud and take a few bows for the showing of the young kids down the stretch, very impressive. The Giants would not still be playing baseball tomorrow if not for the contributions of the young talent and I can't remember the last time you could say that about the Giants. They generally have to overpay or gamble on veteran talent finding the fountain of youth. This season has shown promise of a pivot in the Giants way of constructing the roster and maybe we will see the average age of the team go down a bit.

FWIW: I'm not sure why Juan Perez is still listed as a prospect, it seems as if he has reached suspects status. It just seems like he's a RH hitting Gregor Blanco clone. And a less productive clone at that. He may get pushed out by Gary Brown next year and Brown gives you the possibility of a legit lead-off option behind Angel Pagan if his back doesn't hold up. With all the flexibility and the showing of Travis Ishakawa in LF it seems as if the days of Michael Morse in SF are coming to an end, and that is too bad. He is a great presence in the lineup when healthy. The problem for the Giants right now is that caveat "when healthy" is placed behind too many guys who inhabit the roster. This is a by-product of having nearly the oldest roster in Major League Baseball.

On to Pittsburgh.

Would you rather give up your home-field advantage or your ace?

Reports say that the Giants will not pitch Madison Bumgarner on the final day of the regular season, even if the home field advantage is at stake in order to save him for a potential Wild Card game, even if that means said W/C game then becomes a road game.  i.e.: they would rather have Bumgarner on the mound in STL or PIT, rather than Peavy or Huddy or Petit at home versus same opponents for a one and done, death match. 

from sfgate.com
http://www.sfgate.com/giants/article/Giants-pitching-probables-Sept-26-5781590.php

Even if Sunday’s game would determine home-field advantage for the wild card, Bochy wants to avoid using Bumgarner.

“I think we’ll keep him back,” Bochy said. “Sure, that would be a really important game, but we think we have an option to give us a good chance to win that game.”

At first blush, this appears to be going against the book somewhat. Giving up home field advantage? Can you imagine a football team doing that coming down the stretch run and heading to the playoff? The fans ( and sportswriters would kill them). But maybe Bochy knows his guys better than most of use arm-chair managers give him credit for.

Let's look at the stats:

Bumgarner has posted 15 starts at home this year and he has:
7-6 W-L record ( 0.538 win pct)
1 CG (6.67% of starts)
91 IP ( 6.07 IP/start)
101 K (1.11 K/IP)
24 BB ( 4.21 K/BB ratio )
90 H (0.99 H/IP)
1.24 WHIP
4.03 ERA
.260 BAA

Bumgarner has posted 18 road start this year and he has:
11-4 W-L record ( 0.733 win pct)
3 CG 16.67% of starts)
125 IP (6.94 IP/start)
118 K (0.924 K/IP)
19 BB ( 6.21 K/BB ratio )
104 H  (0.83 H/IP)
0.98 WHIP
2.22 ERA
.224 BAA

The only stat he shows better in is K/IP and that could very well be due to getting amped up at home by the crowd with two-strikes on the batter. Maybe a calmer Bummer is a better Bummer.  

So paradoxically, even though the home confines are considered to be a notorious pitcher's park, at least in Bummer's case this year, statistically he pitches better (maybe much better) on the road. Bumgarner has won eleven of fifteen decisions on the road this year, a 73% winning percentage. No Giants starter at home gives a better shot of winning than 73%, even at home.

So sign me up as being on board with the plan. The other option for pitching the last game at home, if it's meaningful, might be none other than Tim Lincecum. I know most would think Bochy meant Peavy as the better option, but consider this:

Starts at home and results:
Lincecum 15 GS 8-3 W-L (.727 win pct)
Bummer 15 GS 7-6 W-L (.538 win pct)
Vogue 15 GS 3-6 W-L (.333 win pct)
Hudson 14 GS 5-5 W-L (.500 win pct)
Petit 7 GS 4-3 W-L (.571 win pct)
Peavy 5 GS 3-2 W-L (.600 win pct)

Lincecum is the man at AT&T this year. I know, Peavy is the proverbial hot-hand, but can you imagine that yard, with their favorite-son Timmy dealing, for home-field advantage? You're almost in a can't lose situation. If you win, you come back home for the one-game death match against the Pirates / Cardinals. If you lose, you have Bumgarner leading the charge on the road, where apparently he feeds on the opposition fans noise.

Looking forward to the final games and the death match. I feel much better about our chances now. Isn't math / statistics fun?

Captain Clutch! Jeter scripts walk-off in home finale

When Pearce hit the HR to tie and knowing that Jeter would be up third in the bottom of the inning, you just felt something like this would happen. He's done stuff like this too many times in the past. What a way to go out!!

from MLB.com
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees - September 25, 2014 | MLB.com NYY Recap:

 NEW YORK -- There had been a healthy amount of discussion about orchestrating Derek Jeter's exit from the field, how best to provide that chance to say goodbye after this final game in the Bronx. The Yankees should have known that no one was going to script it better than he would.

After choking back tears for nine innings on his last night wearing pinstripes, Jeter stamped an exclamation point on the end of his New York career, slashing an opposite-field walk-off single in the ninth that lifted the Yankees to a 6-5 victory over the Orioles on Thursday at Yankee Stadium.

"This is all I've ever wanted to do, and not too many people get an opportunity to do it," Jeter said. "It was above and beyond anything I'd ever dreamt of. I've lived a dream."

'via Blog this'


Dr. Tom Hanson, a highly regarded mental performance expert who also used to work with the Yankees full-time back in 2001, wrote today in his newsletter some important reasons why he believes this finish happened the way it did:

I left the Yankees feeling I'd be thrilled to have our son grow up to be like Jeter and I still feel that way.

.....

p.s. Actually, the first place to check is how much love you are blasting at yourself.  That's what I really want for my son to emulate about Jeter (and hopefully me).  Jeter loves being Jeter.  "That's easy for him, " you might say, "he's Derek Jeter." 

"No," I say, "he's Derek Jeter BECAUSE he thinks that way."  You don't become great and THEN think great.  You think great first.

Consistently, that is what you hear people say about #2, If you has a son, you wanted him to carry himself like Derek Jeter and if you had a daughter, you wanted her to marry someone like Derek Jeter ( and she probably agreed with you, like a jillion % ).

But the second point is even more important as it goes to the heart of why Jeter has been successful throughout his career.

First, he was well-prepared for success by his parents. Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay brought up some of the methods Jeter's parents employed raising him that were strong on personal responsibility, accountability and having a strong belief system in place. They raised him up well.

Second, and this is what Dr. Hanson was alluding to, he didn't put the cart before the horse as many players (and sons) do by thinking, OK when I'm successful, I'll work hard and do the things successful people do (like have an indomitable, positive mind-set). That's putting the cart before the horse. You have a positive mind-set and that leads to success.

I hate to go all Norman Vincent Peale on you, but it's true, and once again Derek Jeter demonstrated that, and many other great qualities last night.

RE2PECT!!

Giants storm ahead, blow lead, come back, swear a lot | The roller coaster (of ❤) ride continues

This game was a microcosm of the Giants roller-coaster of a season. They do keep battling back. Who knew that the Reverend Hunter Pence had such a little potty mouth? I would have never guessed. I'll forgive him after he busted his ass beating out the tailor made DP ball he hit that extended the 7th inning rally and led to Duffy's safety squeeze, one of the most under-rated offensive weapons in baseball.  If Pence gets doubled up, there is no squeeze play possibility with runner on 3rd and two out and maybe the Padres get out of the inning with the lead.

from Yahoo Sports:
Giants storm ahead, blow lead, come back, swear a lot - Yahoo Sports:

Just a typical Thursday night at the yard.

I'll admit to being jaded. The Giants had a 10-game lead, and then they didn't. Playing after the 162nd game is always special -- I still consider the 1998 Giants a playoff team, dang it -- but there was something about the way the Giants lost the lead. There was something about all those wins leading to a humiliating night at Dodger Stadium.

'via Blog this'

This is how we got down in the '70's yo. Hey, if the Pirates can ride "We are Family" to a world title, why can't the Giants ride the "Love Roller Coaster" all the way through October? Like a licorice twist gonna whip your ass, indeed!! I heard that!!!

I am going to ruin future Giants game watching for Mrs. TheSlav for the rest of the season (the playoffs and / or World Series included) , but here goes.....

The Ohio Players at Midnight Special 1975

Ohio Players "Love Rollercoaster"
http://youtu.be/aBkVV9xxCHE

Apparently inspired by a very turbulent flight inspiring this description by one of the band members — “Someone on the plane commented that they must love their jobs, since the airplane ride was a "love rollercoaster.”*

http://www.lyricsfreak.com/o/ohio+players/love+rollercoaster_20249738.html

Ohio Players – Love Rollercoaster Lyrics

You give me that funny feeling in my tummy
Ahw sh.., yeah, that's right huh
Rollercoaster of love say what
Rollercoaster yeah (oohh oohh oohh)

Oh baby you know what I'm talking about
Rollercoaster of love
Oh yeah it's rollercoaster time

Lovin' you is really wild
Oh it´s just a love rollercoaster
Step right up and get your tickets

Your love is like a rollercoaster baby,baby
I want to ride yeah (awawaw)
Your love is like a rollercoaster baby,baby
I want to ride yeah (awawaw)

Move over dad 'cause I'm a double dipple
Upside down on the big dip dipper
1,2, 1,2,3 I've got a ticket come ride with me
Let me go down on the merry-go-round
All is fair 'n' a big fair ground
Let's go slow, let's go fast
Like a liquorice twist gonna whip your ass

Your love is like a rollercoaster baby,baby
I want to ride yeah (awawaw)
Your love is like a rollercoaster baby,baby
I want to ride yeah (awawaw)

Your love is like a rollercoaster baby,baby
I want to ride yeah (awawaw)
Your love is like a rollercoaster baby,baby
I want to ride yeah (awawaw)

Move over dad 'cause I'm a double dipple
Upside down on the big dip dipper
1,2, 1,2,3 I've got a ticket come ride with me
Let me go down on the merry-go-round
All is fair 'n' a big fair ground
Let's go slow, let's go fast
Like a liquorice twist gonna whip your ass

Your love is like a rollercoaster baby,baby
I want to ride yeah (awawaw)
Your love is like a rollercoaster baby,baby
I want to ride yeah (awawaw)

Rollercoaster say what
I will be there for you I will be your man

Songwriters: WILLIAMS, JAMES L./JONES, MARSHALL/BONNER, LEROY/PIERCE, MARVIN R./BECK, WILLIE/MIDDLEBROOKS, RALPH/SATCHELL, CLARENCE

Love Rollercoaster lyrics © Warner/Chappell Music, Inc.

Sheffield: Javier Baez Needs Work on Swing

http://www.sportsgrid.com/mlb/the-javier-baez-gary-sheffield-comparison-is-uncanny/

They do have an uncanny resemblance as noted above. The size, the strength and power, the quick bat, the torquing of the bat as a timing mechanism. All very similar. You almost wish the Cubs had hired Sheffield as his batting coach rather than Manny Ramirez. You almost couldn't go wrong with either one, the two most lethal RH power bats of the era, both better hitters overall than McGwire.

from Bleacher Report:
Sheffield: Javier Baez Needs Work on Swing:

"When I saw this guy swing [in December], I knew he was going to be a big leaguer for them soon," Sheffield told ESPNChicago.com on Tuesday. "Right now when I watch his swing, he has something in his swing that can be fixed real easy. He collapses his back leg. And anytime you do that, a pitcher is going to have a field day on you. 

"When you collapse your back leg, anything over the belt line you have to uppercut. You can't stay on top of it." 

"Keeping that back foot anchored is important," Cubs hitting coach Bill Mueller said. "It's necessary for sure in keeping square. What's most important is him getting games played. It's a small sample size." 

Manager Rick Renteria added: "When we look at his film, the one thing that stands out is if he swings at strikes, he does damage. When he swings at balls, he doesn't. That has nothing to do with mechanics." 

Sheffield disagrees, to an extent. 

"I see all the ability," said Sheffield, who hit 509 home runs in 22 seasons. "And I see someone has to get with him real quick and fix that little mechanical issue that he has before it gets worse. When you're trying to create that much torque with your lower half collapsing, that's a lot of moving parts. People would ask me, 'How could you do that with all that wiggling the bat like that?' Because it's not how you start it's how you finish. I was always focused on my finish, not how I start." 

'via Blog this'

It looks like, from the motion picture of Baez (shown below), that Baez lunges or almost leaps forward at the pitch rather than staying back as well as he should. The back leg will collapse like that when you stride out too far and miss.

That may just be his youthful exuberance rather than a purely mechanical mistake. He will learn pretty soon that you get the same credit for the HR's that go 325 feet as you do for the 450 footers. But what do I know, I still think chicks dig the long ball, so maybe longer is better.

Also, agree with Renetria on the plate discipline issue. He can be a guy who hits 25 HR's with a .230 average or a 35-40 HR guy hitting .280 - .300 if he corrects that because this yard will not hold him, and once they get Bryant and Rizzo surrounding him or behind him, watch out. He has to fix the ball / strike discipline issue or he'll be hitting lower in the order, behind those other power guys.

We're In! Giants clinch Postseason berth

We're In! Giants clinch Postseason berth View as web page    |   September 25, 2014 GIANTS NEWS The Giants are headed to the Postseason With the Brewers loss to the Reds today, the Giants have clinched a 2014 Postseason Wild Card spot. The Giants record now stands at 85-73 and the team will continue to battle the Pirates for home field advantage. Come out to support your San Francisco Giants for the final four home games of the season. #StrongerTogether | #OctoberTogether Buy Tickets for Padres Series Complete Coverage Postseason Schedule   |   Postseason Tickets   |   Get Postseason Gear Giants Tickets Get On Deck - Season Tickets Looking for access to Giants Postseason Tickets? Your deposit gives you the opportunity to purchase all the potential Division Series home playoff games & possible Wild Card play-in game. Postseason Ticket Purchase Opportunity Enter for your chance to purchase tickets to potential Postseason games at AT&T Park! Get Postseason Gear Postseason merchandise available now, including the San Francisco Giants Official Authentic Collection T-Shirt and Cap. Shop online on sfgiants.com/shop or visit any one of the 12 Bay Area Giants Dugout Stores for your Postseason merchandise needs. Locations and Hours | Shop Online

Pitch it where they ain't - Hit 'em where they ain't | Good advice!!

Wee Willy Keeler, one of the best hitters at the turn of the century and a Hall of Famer once said his advice to hitter's was "Keep your eye clear, and hit 'em where they ain't".  Now, Perry Husband perhaps borrows from that in this article to explain how Jennie Finch vexes major league hitters by "Pitching it where they ain't". 

from SBNation.com

The Essence of Velocity: The pitching theory that could revolutionize baseball, if only the sport would embrace it

				The Essence of Velocity: The pitching theory that could ... The pitching theory that could revolutionize baseball, if only the sport would embrace it.
				View on www.sbnation.com	Preview by Yahoo

PITCH IT WHERE THEY AIN’T

Perry Husband once asked Brent Strom to name his ideal closer. Without hesitation, Strom said, "Jennie Finch, the softball pitcher."

Strom is on to something. There’s a reason that big league hitters won’t step into the box against a softball hurler: Their underhand delivery is so foreign to them as to appear unhittable.

Finch actually did face big leaguers, at the 2004 Pepsi All-Star Softball Game — where she struck out Albert Pujols, Brian Giles and Mike Piazza. Barry Bonds looked on in amusement, but when he faced her several months later, he was able to muster nothing more than a softly tapped foul.

"Her ball comes in on a different path," said Strom. "It’s why [former Mets starter] Sid Fernandez had success. Everybody wants a 6'5 guy, but hitters have been conditioned for ages for a ball to be in a certain spot, from a downward plane. Fernandez sat really deep on his back leg and had a low release point. Hitters couldn’t adjust."

They would, of course, if they faced Fernandez … or Finch … every day. It’s not like collegiate softball players are better hitters than their big league counterparts.

It does, however, illustrate the power of putting a pitch where the hitter does not expect it to be.

'via Blog this'

If pitchers can incorporate the kind of deceptiveness that Finch possesses, they are well on their way to demolishing the front half of Keeler's advice, "Keep your eye clear..." You can't hit what you can't see, so therefore you can't hit well, that which you can't see well. Good article and Perry Husband throws out some good wisdom on his website "Hitting is a Guess" ( http://www.hittingisaguess.com/index.html ). Perry's stuff is useful for both hitters and pitchers.

P.S. - I did not not know this:

Keeler had the ability to bunt practically any ball sent his way. He was the impetus for the rule change that made a third-strike foul bunt into a strike out. 

RE2PECT to the Captain.

He played the game the right way. Much like Cal Ripken before him, just a model of consistency, grace and dignity. He gets RESPECT because he gives respect  A great team leader for many, many years. 

Playing in the white-hot spotlight of NY, this is simply an amazing stat. 

from ESPN.com

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/11582355/derek-jeter-umps-make-call-captain-career

Also, the fact that given who he is, and how he looks, and where he plays, it's amazing that he hasn't made the back pages for much more than the "alleged" overnight gift bag to his gal pals fiasco. 

Some other amazing stats, career milestones for The Captain:

• As a player, his teams are more over the .500 mark than any other player in history.
• He captained the New York Yankees, one of sports most marquee franchises, longer that anyone else in history. 
• It wasn't too long ago, people were debating whether or not Jeter might catch The Hit King,  Pete Rose for most hits all-time. 
• A .309 batting average over 20 season of play
• 3,461 career hits
• 260 HR's playing in a park that is not user-friendly to RH power hitters
• 5 Silver Sluggers and 5 Gold Gloves 
• Mr. Clutch, even though there is no such thing apparently, according to SABR

Now, this might be a little over the top, and I knew somebody would go there:

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/09/derek-jeter-new-york-yankees-last-game-re2pect

The heavens are crying ahead of Derek Jeter's farewell to Yankee Stadium

The heavens are crying? Really? Anyway, a certain first allot Hall of Famer. Not just a compiler of stats of a hanger-on veteran. He's been  a solid contributor his entire career. 

from Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_SS.shtml

71.7 career WAR/42.2 7yr-peak WAR/57.0 JAWSAverage HOF SS (out of 21) = 66.7 career WAR/42.8 7yr-peak WAR/54.7 JAWS

The JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score system) was developed by sabermetrician Jay Jaffe — first at Baseball Prospectus in 2004 — as a means to measure a player's Hall of Fame worthiness by comparing him to the players at his position who are already enshrined, using advanced metrics to account for the wide variations in offensive levels that have occurred throughout the game's history. The stated goal is to improve the Hall of Fame's standards, or at least to maintain them rather than erode them, by admitting players who are at least as good as the average Hall of Famer at the position, using a means via which longevity isn't the sole determinant of worthiness.

A great day for baseball and a great day for the Yankees. On top of the hoopla of  Mariano Rivera's career victory lap maybe some in the greater N.Y. metropolitan area are suffering from hoopla fatigue, but the fact that it seems to bother America's biggest  bitch / whiner / bed-wetter / equal opportunity ball of hate  Keith Olbermann makes it all the more appropriate to me.



(BTW - Just because you remember who Red Ruffing is and can spout some seemingly endless innocuous stats that your staff likely cherry picks for you, doesn't mean you know dick about The Game, sir). Your tedious rant only reflected the kind of person YOU ARE, which is to say the polar opposite in every way, shape or form that Derek Jeter is. You sir, will NEVER be the Captain of anything. You can only dream of being 1/1,000th as popular as Derek Jeter is. If ESPN had any shame whatsoever, they would make you go away,  AGAIN!!! And take whoever that idiot is off-camera, that giggles like a school girl at the pablum that dribbles out of your mouth, with you. You're both cretinous losers in the game of life, that much you have made perfectly clear by way of your otherwise rambling, incoherent rant.

Rock on, Captain.  RE2PECT. I got your back on this one. 

Giants concede defeat, respect their opponent

This is all you can do sometimes, tip your cap to your opponent, lick your wounds and come back to fight another day.

I'm still not counting on the playoffs providing too excitement for the Giants, I think the injuries have been / will be just too much to overcome. The path in the N.L. leads through Washington and Los Angeles. The Pirates, Cardinals and Giants have to dig deep and see if they have enough to challenge the front-runners.

The Pirates with their youth, energy and vigor, the Giants with their "been there done that" experience and brittle bones, the Cardinals with The Cardinal Way, which is to consistently come up big in the playoffs.

from mercurynews.com
POSTGAME NOTES: Giants lose division, but move on and look to clinch and hand their season to Madison Bumgarner - Giants Extra:

— This one really had to hurt the staff. They watched their team get overwhelmed, and to top it off, Wilson came out for the ninth. But the coaches, led by Dave Righetti, handled the end with class … 

A positive: Andrew Susac is now 3 for 7 against Kershaw this season. Matt Duffy is 2 for 2. Joe Panik is 2 for 8, which is like a .600 average when you adjust for Kershaw. These kids are not afraid.

'via Blog this'

Bowed, but not broken

Study of "The Count" yields fascinating data

Fascinating study, another classic, which shows SABR at it's best. More useful tidbits about first understanding and then controlling the single most important element in the game. "The Count".

from SABR.org
Study of ‘The Count’ Yields Fascinating Data

				Study of ‘The Count’ Yields Fascinating Data Society for American Baseball Research - Research Journal Archives
				View on research.sabr.org	Preview by Yahoo

The results support many homilies about the benefits that a pitcher

enjoys by staying ahead of the hitter - and also show that batters hit

36 points higher with runners aboard than with the sacks empty.

---

In analyzing the results, certain statistics seem to stand out especially strongly. The following comments relate to some of the most interesting of these.

MISSED SWINGS. Perhaps the most striking statistic is the extraordinarily low percentage of swung-on pitches which are missed completely. Fewer than one out of every five swings is missed completely; about 45% of swings produce either a hit or an out, and the balance (3 6%) are fouled off. One marvels at the skills of major league batters to make contact so consistently and also at those pitchers who are able to strike out ten or more of these batters in a game.

TAKEN PITCHES. Further testament to the extra-ordinary "eye" of the major league batter is his apparent ability to discern a good pitch from a bad one. While there is no way to record the number of bad pitches swung at, the statistics do show that on those occasions when the batter chooses NOT to swing, he is right (i.e., the pitch is called a ball) about 71% of the time. If this is true of the AVERAGE player, imagine what the skill of a Ted Williams must have been!

CALLED VS. SWINGING STRIKEOUTS. At the earliest stages of almost every player's introduction to the game, it is axiomatic that he will be told to "never take a called third strike"; yet more than 28% of the strikeouts recorded in the sample were called third strikes. This is a statistic which is hard to accept at face value (especially since only 29% of taken pitches are called strikes, regardless of the count), although every subsample confirms this result. The implication would be that a batter's ability to "protect the plate" does not improve much when he has two strikes on him.

IN FACT, that appears to be the case. The percentage of pitches fouled off of pitches swung at remains consistently between 33% and 40% for all counts on the batter. And the highest percentage - 40% - is for the 0-1 pitch.

Despite the statistics attesting to the high ability of batters to discern good pitches from bad ones, it would appear that many marginal pitches are being let go and are resulting in called strikeouts. This may be a prime example of the "umpire factor" at work - perhaps the umpire feels a need to punish the batter for not swinging at a pitch close enough to the strike zone when he has two strikes on him, thus giving the pitcher the benefit of the doubt.

THE 0-2 PITCH. The aforementioned inability of batters to improve their ability to protect the plate with two strikes on them makes questionable the cherished notion of using the 0-2 pitch as a "waste pitch." And the statistics bear out this questioning of the "book." In those instances with an 0-2 count when the pitcher put the ball close enough to the strike zone to compel the batter to swing at it, the batter struck out 24% of the time! This compares quite favorably with the overall 19% swing-and-miss rate for all counts.

In addition, on those occasions when the batter watched the 0-2 pitch go by, more than 10% were called third strikes. Considering that some portion of these tosses were "waste pitches" anyway, there seems to be reason to believe that a pitch somewhere near the strike zone has a reasonably good chance to be given the benefit of the doubt by the umpire. In any event, this area definitely deserves more detailed research.

THE 3-0 PITCH. The fact that almost 60% of all 3-0 pitches are taken for a called strike should probably not be surprising. What WAS interesting, however, was the wide difference observed in the percentage of batters swinging at the 3-0 pitch (14 of 193, about 7.3%) compared to the Palmer study of all World Series games played between 1974 and 1982 (66 of 336, or 19.6%)! Can it be that World Series managers are likely to give a green light to a batter on a 3-0 pitch almost one out of every five times, when they do so about one time in 14 during the regular season? Since both studies eliminated intentional walks from the data base, there is no reason to assume a statistical bias one way or the other.

Moreover, the divergence of the data does not end merely with the frequency of swinging at the pitch; the results of those swings are significantly different as well. Palmer reported that of the 66 World Series players swinging at the 3-0 pitch, 34 missed it completely! This is a staggering 51.5% miss rate, higher by far than any sample at any count under any condition. In contrast, the 14 swings in this study produced only one complete miss, six foul balls and seven balls put into play.

While both samples are admittedly too small to draw any conclusions with confidence, the results of the current study are at least compatible with what has been observed for batters in general. This extraordinarily wide divergence of observed behavior in the regular season vs. World Series play certainly deserves closer scrutiny.

BASES EMPTY VS. RUNNERS ON BASE. While it should be expected that significantly different patterns exist when there are runners on base and when the bases are empty, the extent of those differences was surprisingly large. Batting averages with runners on base were .036 higher than with bases empty (.285 vs .249), and the strikeout rate was only 14.7% compared to a bases-empty rate of 16.3%

It is not difficult to postulate reasons why this should be so. With bases empty almost all pitchers throw from a full windup (a few relievers, such as Kent Tekulve and Jim Winn, throw exclusively from the stretch), which should produce a marginally faster pitch to hit. Also, since a hit is relatively more dangerous than a walk with men on base, a catcher is more likely to call for curves, knucklers, etc., which are more likely to be outside the strike zone but are also less likely to become base hits; he is not as apt to ask the pitcher to "challenge" the hitter. Unfortunately, this often leads to the pitcher falling behind in the count, which, combined with the stretch position, creates a situation generally more favorable for the hitter. And as the data show, the batters tend to respond with a vengeance.

from Hardball Times:
The Importance Of Strike One (and Two, and Three…), Part 2

				The Importance Of Strike One (and Two, and Three…), Part... Craig continues to look at the importance of throwing strikes, and tries to settle the old question 'what's the most important count in baseball?'
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Now there are also additional benefits to throwing first-pitch strikes, other than just those bare results. Strikes also end plate appearances early; therefore preserving a pitcher's freshness and allowing him to face more hitters. Johnny Sain, the legendary pitching coach who has left dozens if not hundreds of disciples throughout baseball, said that the best pitch in baseball was the one-pitch out. Certainly the ideal result for a pitcher isn't the strikeout, but the one-pitch out. Even putting that to one side, though, surely the notion that strike one (no matter if it's put into play, swinging, called, foul, or what have you) is worth two runs a game is enough to encourage pitchers to throw first strikes more often? (Pitchers threw first-pitch strikes 57% of the time in 2003). Now if that perfectly average pitcher threw first-pitch strikes 80% of the time instead of 57%, his ERA would decrease by about 0.64. If every pitcher on a team did it, it would save that team about 100 runs a year, or ten wins, turning average teams into pennant contenders.

Now pitching coaches, and other baseball people, will often tell you that 1-1 is the most important count for a pitcher, because of the massive difference between 2-1 and 1-2. Mike Marshall, in a discussion with Steve ("CrashCourse") of NetShrine, recently said that

"The highest batting average hitters achieve is in their one pitch at bats. Therefore, while strike one is very good, it has to be a pitch that does not allow hits. The key to pitching is one ball two strikes rather than two balls one strike. The first pitch is important, but the next two pitches are just as important."

Likewise, Greg Maddux considers the 1-1 pitch the most important pitch in baseball, because 1-2 and 2-1 are "different worlds". On the other hand, Reds pitching coach Don Gullett and Giants manager Felipe Alou - amongst others - say that the first-pitch strike is the most important.

There is another way to look at the de-emphasis of the 0-0 strike and the emphasis on 1-1 and later counts that shows the wisdom of throwing early strikes. Starting pitchers in particular need quick at-bats. Starters who work hitters into deep counts do have more success in reducing batting averages as Mike Marshall points out. However, pitchers cannot consistently throw five, six, or seven pitches in an at-bat and still be successful, as Marshall himself points out in his online book, Coaching Pitchers: 

 Free Book

		Free Book Free Book     Coaching Adult Pitchers and Coaching Adolescent Pitchers.      Thanks for your help. Coaching Pitchers Table of Contents Section I: Author's Credentials Chapter 01 Chapter 02 Chapter 03
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1. Pitchers should throw all pitches for 66.7% strikes.
2. Pitchers should end 75% of at bats within three pitches.
3. Pitchers should end 100% of at bats within five pitches.

In order to end at-bats quickly, pitchers must maximize the number of strikes they throw early in the count, on the first three pitches. The base hits on early strikes - and they are going to happen - are a pitcher's occupational hazard. Pitchers shouldn't let them get in the way of pressuring hitters.

0-0 is the predominant count in baseball. The first strike is the soul of every pitcher's success, and pitchers who don't throw first-pitch strikes get killed. Consistently, even the most hittable pitchers in the majors give up base hits on fewer than 10% of their first-pitch strikes. Certainly, the old saw that the pitcher's most important pitch is a strike, rings true. But another popular piece of myth, that the 1-1 count is the big one, should probably be put out to pasture. 

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