Hidden Gold on the Diamond? The Contribution of the Relative Age Effect to Talent Estimation Errors of High School Players in the June MLB Draft Robert Brustad | 2016 SABR Analytics Conference presentations

2016 SABR Analytics Conference presentations | Society for American Baseball Research:

3:30-4:30 p.m., Friday, March 11Presented by Baseball Info Solutions, RP5 and RP6 took place back-to-back in a single session.

RP5: Hidden Gold on the Diamond? The Contribution of the Relative Age Effect to Talent Estimation Errors of High School Players in the June MLB Draft
Robert Brustad

• Audio: Click here to listen to Robert Brustad's presentation (MP3; 34:05) 
• Slides: Click here to view slides from Robert Brustad's presentation (PPT)

Identifying and projecting talent of high school players is complicated by meaningful age differences that exist among players within the same draft class. The “relative age effect” (RAE) refers to the tendency for older athletes within any competitive age cohort to appear more “talented” than younger athletes when current performance differences can be partially attributed to additional maturation and accumulated practice favoring older players. This study examined relative age influences on the probability of draft selection and eventual return value of high school players with the assumptions that relatively older players a) are more likely to be selected but b) relatively younger players have a higher ceiling and provide greater potential return. All high school draft selections in the first twenty rounds of the 2005 through 2012 MLB June drafts were included. The first analysis included those players born within the 12-month age range corresponding with the age of “typical” high school senior year players. Chi-square frequency analysis revealed a significant difference that favored the selection of older players. Return value was then assessed through subsequent accumulated MLB WAR values of three age-on-draft day groups. Significant differences existed in return value favoring the youngest group of players (m draft day age = 17.97 yrs.) who outperformed the average (m age = 18.40 yrs.) and oldest players (m age = 18.79 yrs.) by 2.36 and 2.44 times, respectively. This advantage was also present for seven of the eight individual drafts. Maturational considerations involved in projecting talent will be further discussed.

Robert Brustad is Professor in the School of Sport and Exercise Science at the University of Northern Colorado and former Editor of the Journal of Sport & Exercise Psychology. His focus is on the design of talent identification and talent development systems in sport with primary interest devoted to the role of physical and psychological maturation and development on sport performance. He has consulted with various professional sport organizations and the United States Olympic Committee.

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