Arbitration and negotiation - 2019

I viewed Trevor Bauer’s victory over the Indians as a ground-breaking victory for players. He prevailed over the Indians in 2018 as well and clearly he and his advisers know how to negotiate the process. Bauer followed up the arbitration victory in 2018 with an elevated performance on the field, setting the stage for his follow-up victory in 2019.

2019 MLBTR Arb Tracker:

2018 MLBTR Arb Tracker:

The Baseball Cube Comparable Player comparison: In order to determine whether the outcome was fair, we need to have a good understanding what criteria the arbitrators use to determine outcomes. From Michael D’Ambrosio: https://throughthefencebaseball.com/the-business-of-baseball-mlb-salary-arbitration-101-part-ii/ The criteria to be utilized by the arbitration panel consists of the following: 1. The quality of the Player’s contribution to his Club during the past season (including but not limited to his overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public appeal); 2. The length and consistency of his career contribution; 3. The record of the Player’s past compensation; 4. Comparative baseball salaries (of all comparable players, not just one comparable player or a specific group); 5. The existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the Player 6. The recent performance record of the Club, including but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication of public acceptance. The criteria reviewed by the panel, according to the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) will be “the quality of the player’s contribution to his club during the past season.”   The panel considers the following factors when evaluating the quality of the player’s contribution: ·         Overall performance — statistical analysis; ·         Length and consistency of career; ·         Record of past compensation; ·         Existence of any physical or mental deficiencies; ·         Leadership qualities and public attraction; ·         Recent performance of the club — league standing and attendance; ·         *Comparative baseball salaries. ·         *Evidence of special accomplishment Comparative Baseball Salaries: The panel is provided with a confidential document tabulating the  salaries of all major league players from the prior season. The player salary figures are categorized by years of major league service. The panel considers not merely the salary of a single player or group of players, but the salaries of all comparable players. When considering an arbitration-eligible player who has not accrued five years of major league service time, the panel is required to focus on comparative salary data not exceeding one-year over the player’s annual service group. For example, shortstop Mike Aviles filed for arbitration against the Cleveland Indians on January 15 seeking $3.4 million; Cleveland exchanged a figure of $2.4 million. Aviles has accrued 4.091 years of major league service time. If Aviles and Cleveland do not reach a deal, the arbitration panel would review comparative salaries of players with four years of major league service time and players with five years’ service (within one year of Aviles’s annual service group). Evidence of Special Accomplishment: The player contends for the panel to give “equal relevance” to comparative salaries.  Essentially, because of some special accomplishment or achievement by the player, the player argues the panel should review salaries of similar players without regard to service time. Had catcher Buster Posey, a “Super Two,” not signed a contract with the San Francisco Giants, his representative likely would have raised the special accomplishment argument. Posey’s body of work includes two World Series titles and the 2012 National League Most Valuable Player Award. Because of said achievements, the argument is Posey’s salary figures should be compared to the salaries of players far exceeding his 2.161 years of service time. This is decided by the panel on a case-by-case basis. I sorted out the MLB payroll from Cot’s Baseball Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus) by service time  and summed the total for Right-Handed starting pitchers to meet the criteria the arbitrators use.    2017 Comparative Baseball Salaries: The RHP-s in the 3.148-4.148 service time range averaged $4.878M salary, the average salary for that  service time for all players is approx. $3.6M, so it appears that the $6.525M that team Bauer was asking  for was fair, or perhaps the Indians $5.3M offer was unreasonably low by comparison . The follow up 5.7 WAR that Bauer put out on the field led to his cashing in for $13M in 2019. You can  see by the individual year to year comparisons below that Stroman followed up his 2018 arbitration  disappointment with a 0.2 WAR and settled for a raise to $7.4M in 2019, allowing Odorizzi and Gausman  to pass him up in salary for 2019. These three settled without arbitration in 2019 whereas Bauer says he  is content to go year-to-year and bet on his on the field performances to lead to greater increases.  So far that strategy has worked well for him.   Charles Slavik is a Sport Management student at University of North Florida, Go Ospreys!! and  is primarily interested in data analytics and baseball. He can be reached at https://twitter.com/theslav1959  or read at The Slav's Baseball Blog - BASEBALL 24-7-365    http://slavieboy.blogspot.com/ .