Monday, March 26, 2007

Random Pre-Final Four - Opening Day Notes



OK, OK. Michael Irvin is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but out as ESPN commentator? It's a deal. WTF, at least the HOF doesn't broadcast blabbering bullshit into my living room on a weekly basis. How I'm going to understand TO now, without his personal mouthpiece pontificating from his bully(bullshit?) pulpit, I don't know.

Reminds me of the old lawyer joke though. You know the one. What's 1,000 lawyers chained together at the bottom of the ocean? (Answer: A good start). Well, this is merely a good start by the Worldwide Leader. A necessary spring cleaning.

Theismann out of MNF, another nice touch. Ron Jaworski as replacement is a nice upgrade. You don't have to worry aboout Jaws being dull on air, or too exciting off the air. Plus, seeing him and hearing his voice is a constant reminder of LT coming off the corner and blindsidng his ass. It would be like how Eagle fans would feel if Joe Pisarcik were the new analyst. Hey, those are the breaks. At least Herman Edwards is still coaching, right? So it evens out.

But let's get serious ESPN. Let's really roll up our sleeves and go all the way. There's not anyone roaming the halls in Bristol,CT or cleaning the stalls for that matter, who has more knowledge and camera presence than Jeff Brantley? He should be next. And Kruk too for that matter. I'm not seeing the appeal or feeling the knowledge. Orestes Destrade seems ready to move up to the big club.

And how about Doug Gottlieb? How many more lunches have to mysteriously dissapear from the employee lounge fridge before ESPN security puts two and two together? How much loose change has to be pilfered from hard-working, lower level employees desks before justice is done once and for all?

And how can the good women employees of ESPN feel safe from sexual harassment? You throw them the bone of the Harold Reynolds firing yet leave the carcass of Sean Salisbury and his wonder-cell-phone? Qu'elle charade!!

Oh well, on to the Final Four Front. Team Slavik has 3 of the Final Four and had 6 of the Elite Eight and still sits 16 out of 32 brackets in the company pool. That's a tough pool. I'm glad I don't gamble, at least not with my own money (sorry honey).

You gotta love the Cubs chances this year, huh? I mean who'd have guessed that Mark Prior and Kerry Wood would open the season on the DL? What are the odds? They both seemed so healthy and with such immaculate past medical records. Hey, they've come so close to a century of futility, why mess it up now, who knows when you might get an opportunity to be a part of this type of history of futility again? Go Cubs.




Are Jeter and A-Rod still dating? TLF, right? Pre-pubescent girls talk about and stress over not sleeping over their friends house, not major league MVP candidates. OMG!! At least you know these two guys are not on the juice, too much estrogen here. And what's with Mussina v. Pavano and the little hissy cat-fight these guys have going on? Old-time Yankees are spinning in their graves. Back in the day, there would be a little clubhouse dust-up, or even better an on-field brouhaha, and the combatants would go out, have a beer and it would be over. Now, everyone wants to get in front of a microphone and talk about their problems with Dr. Phil. Sometimes, old-school is better. I guess violence is never the answer, except maybe when it beats the alternative. Go Yankees.



Devil Rays in the World Series by 2010? That would be too cool and yet somehow maybe plausible? Possibly improving to possible if some things go right. Still a frontline ace pitcher and a stud closer away, at least. But they're young enough and talented enough and gosh darn it, people like them. Go Devil Rays.

My pre-season Divison winner predictions:
NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Dodgers
Wild Card: Giants

Al East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Angels
Wild Card: Indians

World Series: Giants vs. Yankees
World Series Winner: Giants

Over/Under on Bonds breaking Aaron's record: September 3rd.

Sunday, March 18, 2007

March Madness - Good Luck with your Brackets III



Bad Day for Team Slavik as we head to the Sweet Sixteen. Texas' loss hurt, we had them going to the Elite Eight. Wisconsin hurt as well. Another Elite Eighter. All of our Final Four teams are still competing (Florida, Kansas, Georgetown and Ohio State) and our eventual champion Ohio State, beating Florida, is still alive, but barely.

I'm learning why people hate refs. The Oden non-flagrant foul call on a foul that is in the book under the definition of flagrant foul. The philosophy that says refs don't want to decide games by their calls, is BS. Oden would have decided the outcome via a stupid foul. As it was he got a cheap shot in for free.

The Strawberry block/charge blown call decided a game. It was the wrong call that turned the tide. An officials nightmare for sure.

Illinois I thought also got hurt by a bunch of non-calls made by refs late. They played better than expected, better than they showed most of the year and nothing to show for it.

Chalk continues to rule, Vanderbilt (6 seed) and UNLV (7 seed) are closest to Cinderella. Going to miss VCU who might have been closer to true definition of Cinderella as a 12 seed. Their point guard, Eric Maynor, has a lot of Reggie Miller in him, hitting big shots with the guts of an stone-cold assasin. Lots of respect for that guy.

Here's hoping Tennessee loses before Coach Summit decides to show up at the next mens basketball game with her chest painted to pay back Coach Pearl. Get a room coaches.

GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR BRACKETS!!! Kudos to CBS Sportsline for their on-line bracker set-up for office pools. It's a great way to track how you are doing vs. everyone else in your pool. In years past, you used to have to speculate how well/poorly you were doing versus your competition. Team Slavik is currently 27th out of 32. We need Ohio State to run the table and virtually everything else to go right to get in the money. Oops, I mean third place.

Records are made to be broken, Even this one



With all this angst about Bonds breaking Aaron's "hallowed" record, I started thinking about what records in sports nowadays are truly beyond approach.

For some reason, Sean Kemp's record of 7 children with 6 different mothers (as of 1999, the number could actually be significantly higher by now) came immediately to mind.

It's not a sports record, but given it apparently is held by a sports figure, I'm willing to grant an exception in this case.



So in honor of the man who gave more hernias to mailmen on Father's Day, the incomparable Shawn Kemp, we have the Official Las Vegas Odds on various celebs to break this amazing record.



Prohibitive Favorite:

2:500 Former President Bill Clinton (off the board if his wife wins Presidency)
the only thing that could possibly stop him is if Hillary is able to garner support for her little-known bill to sterilize all former Presidents.

3:1 Kobe Bryant - has proven in the past that he can take it strong to the hole, both on and off the court. His contract may prove to be an impediment as it is not large enough, as currently structured, to buy enough "I'm sorry" diamonds to get over the hump. Apparently has sufficient ignorance of the word "No" to give him a real chance. Maturity could stand in the way, but most close friends and observers doubt this will be an impediment. Current events seem to bear out this feeling.

5:1 Brian Uhrlacher - nicknamed "Girl-Sacker" provides a delightfully provocative nickname to initiate conversation with most fertile, young potential panty peelers. Scouts rave about his ability to plug the hole. Good hands (shown below) leave him in the game against the run and the pass. First to lay pipe in the now scandal ravaged Paris Hilton gives him a certain amount of skank cred..



7:1 Sydney Crosby - anyone who scores more on and off the ice than Gretzky and who inspires women to hold up signs at games saying "Hey Sydney, put it in my five-hole" (thereby risking a frisking by $7.50 / hr.stadium security) has enormous future potential.

9:1 Matt Leinhart - building on pipe laid by Urhlacher (and many others) at the Paris Hilton. Only lefthander in current crop.

10:1 Tom Brady - Nothing says pantie peeling like 3 Super Bowl rings and a huge contract. Playing in tight pants help. Developing ability to go through supermodels like Bill Parcells goes through chicken wings.

15:1 Derek Jeter - his eyes say no-no, but his daring play and Yankee captaincy scream F_ _ _ Me!! F _ _ _ Me! to baseball fans of all ages throughout the major leagues.

20:1 Alex Rodriguez - growing tired of Jeter's sloppy seconds in NY. Seems poised for a breakout year. If you think he was mad about being dropped to eighth in Joe Torre's lineup in the playoffs, he's really going to be pissed about being eighth in this order.

25:1 Tony Parker - never discount the French in a competition like this.

30:1 Michael Jordan - may tire from writing too many zeroes on checks's to ex-es. May eventually be a precursor to impotency down the line. Not proven scientifically, only anecdotally from numerous ex-husbands.

100:1 Harold Reynolds - spends too much time at the petting zoo. Needs more sack time. Currently getting "Chick" lessons from Salisbury.

1000:1 John Kruk - (Slim Fast version) - If his wife thinks he's less disgusting now, wait until she sees him kiting child support checks for the tobacco-spitting Little Kruksters.

Million:1 John Kruk - (If weight yo-yo's back up to pre-diet levels)

Infinity:1 John Kruk - (With Weight Back Up and Mullet Hairdo Back)

Infinity * Infinity:1 - Sean Salisbury - both pre and post diet levels and with or without portfolio of "Little Sean" phone photos. This sleaze would stand out in a convention of strip-club owners. Wouldn't bet on him scoring if perpetuation of the species were at risk. Even then, insemination by apes and setting the evolutionary clock back about a bazillion years would be more palatable to all women.

Get your bets down!!! Note - all present and future NASCAR drivers were ruled off the board for obvious reasons.

Dan Patrick and Keith Olberman discuss Pujols Off the Juice




I'm sorry, that's how I heard it. I must be one jaded SOB, though. Really they did a great job of saying,

"Son of a bitch, I wish I could say this stuff about Bonds, because then we'd be able to twist it into proof positive that he's on something, but for God's sake it's Pujols. Shit, we like him, it just can't be! Do I trust my eyes, or my preconceived notions, biases and prejudices! Dammit, now I'm really confused!! God, I hate this shit, why couldn't it be Bonds."

Oh shoot, don't believe me, listen for yourself. I heard this myself as it was broadcast, but I have to credit the good folks at Steroid Nation for having the link to an audio of the broadcast. You can't make this stuff up. Of course, they can't resist taking a shot at Bonds at the end. No story about BALCO or Bonds various difficulties seem to end in a Pujols joke. Just helping everyone keep score at home. And in case you are scoring, it's spelled H-Y-P-O-C-R-I-T-E-S. F#$%^&G HYPOCRITES!!

Steroid Nation link:
http://grg51.typepad.com/steroid_nation/2007/03/dan_patrick_and.html

What a shame when these guys can't get the facts to square up to reality. But never let it be said that the facts need to get in the way of a good story.

And don't forget to read the story of the Grimsley Affadavit and the famous redacted names:
http://deadspin.com/sports/baseball/so-weve-got-some-affidavit-names-179400.php

Yes, interesting, whatever happened to those redacted names? Shouldn't we be having a leak of those names anytime soon, or a congressional inquiry or something. I suspect we know the reason why those names haven't seen the light of day. The names will soil the reputations of white, popular players. When I'm proven wrong about this, let me know. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting though, and neither should you. And in the interest of the health, safety and well-being of all the youth of America, neither should they.

Saturday, March 17, 2007

March Madness - Good Luck with your Brackets II



Team Slavik fell from 7th out of 32 contestants in our pool down to 19th place after last nights late results.

Old Dominion almost pulled it off as one of our 12 seed vs. 5 seed upsets, but Arkansas pulled a no-show against USC late at night. Both hurt a bit, but the big hurt came earlier when Creighton had a late shot to win from in close during regulation, losing later in OT vs. Nevada. We had them winning the next game vs. Memphis as well, so that's a major gash. All our final fours are intact, so we have good prospects going forward.

The first round is like being in a knife fight. You're going to get cut. You just hope you're not bleeding too bad at the end so you can survive into the later rounds and be within shouting distance going into the Final Four.

There is an amazing diversity in the processes people go through in order to pick the "perfect bracket". Some go through hours of research worthy of purchasing a million dollar stock position or a major life decision like a home or a car. Others simply choose by what city they would rather live in, which mascot would win in a fight, team colors, etc. (history shows they win most of the pools anyway).

The odds of actually picking the perfect bracket theoretically are 1:2^63 (one in two to the 63rd power) or one in 9 Million Trillion. What a bazillion was taken? According to the odds posted on the Powerball lottery site, you would be 60 billion times more likely to win Powerball than post a perfect bracket.

Most of the Internet sites that run the computerized standings for pool players have their leaders posting a minimum of two to three losers already, just on the basis of the first round results.

In theory, the odds previously stated assume the coin-flip theory (ie: every game is a 50-50 toss-up) and we "know" that's not the case. So we could tilt the odds more in our favor by adding some other assumptions to the mix.

Assume that since a 16 seed has never beaten a 1 seed that those games are "locks" to go to the 1 seed. Two seeds rarely beat 15 seeds (although it has happened) so toss those into the "lock" hopper as well. That's eight games we no longer have to worry about, they're in the bank. We've now reduced the odds to 1:2^55 (one in two to the 55th power) or 1 in 36 million billion.

What if I take into account the "fact" that I have a system (who doesn't) that ranks teams and the system is accurate in picking winners 67% of the time? Your odds with that system would be approximately 1: 240 billion.

If you were 70% accurate: 1:13 billion
If you were 72% accurate: 1: 970 million
If you were 75% accurate: 1:150 million

If you took the "chalk" strategy across the board (ie: picked the lower seed to win every game) 1: 150 billion. NO UPSETS. THAT WOULDN'T BE ANY FUN!!!

So far, this tournament is favoring the chalk, not too many "major" upsets and few minor ones. That could change today and going forward. I have to admit, my approach is closest to the pure chalk strategy, assuming the committee and the various number crunchers have done the homework for me, with a pich of selective upsets tossed in.
I probably am more likely to reach for upsets in the early rounds and stay closer to the chalk later on. I have to have a real feel that the lower seeded team has a good chance to win as well as the favorite being a candidate to go home early.

I guess Winthrop over Notre Dame (yes, it hurt to pick that one) fit the model best.
(Yes, because they won. ODU and VCU were also there for the same reasons, close but no cigar). Winthrop has been knocking on this door for years and ND, although talented, has had some off the court issues and inconsistency throughout the year.

Sometimes you look to the numbers for answers and sometimes you have to trust your gut, I guess. As you can see, sometimes the numbers provide more questions than answers.

Friday, March 16, 2007

March Madness - Good Luck with your Brackets



A good opening day for Team Slavik, 13 for 16 games. Duke kills me as usual, this time by losing. Because, I had VCU as an upset and talked myself out of it by thinking too much. I thought, no way is Duke going down in the first round. Like I tell some of my players, "don't think, you're hurting the team".

Heard Bobby Knight go off on a number of subjects before being sent home.
1) Officials working NCAA games too much. "First of all, I don't think there's an official in the world capable of working six days a week". He proposes a three day a week max and geographic limits, more instructional time.

In the interest of full disclosure, I'm one of the brethren, but he's right. I don't think I could physically handle six days a week at my level. And officials discuss this amongst themselves and agree with the message, but on this topic, I'm betting we'll consider the messenger and thus we will proceed to disregard the message. That would be a mistake. Knight's right.

2) Knight commented on the NCAA-NBA one year rule requirement. The so-called, one-and-done rule. He believes players should be required to take 12 credit hours per semester before going to the pros. Not a bad suggestion, to have student-athletes at least give the appearance of being students.

Again, of course, due to the messenger, the message gets somehow mangled and lost. Perfect example, I'm listening to one of the local sports talk shows and up and coming ESPN basketball analyst Stephan Bardo roasted Knight for his comments about this subject. He opined that Knight didn't recruit the caliber of player (like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant) so he somehow shouldn't be concerned about the subject. Never mind that his program has to compete against others that do (that whole level playing field subject). If he had stopped there, he would have sounded ignorant enough for me, but most of his audience probably would not have been the wiser, but he further states that Knight has no standing commenting on coaches being responsible for kids going to class. And people wonder why I rail against the media so much!

This may have been one of the more ignorant statements about a subject, by a speaker who is being paid to be knowledgeable about said subject, as I have heard in quite some time. And of course, neither of the interviewers seemed willing to stop the impending train wreck.

Does Mr. Bardo not know that Knight (regardless of anything else you may hold against him) has one of the best reputations for having kids go to class and graduate in college basketball?
His comrades in arms should have at least tried to pull him out of it, maybe with the hand they weren't using for the group-jerk they must have been having. He-he-he we're bashing media-hater Bobby Knight again.

Congratulations Stephen Bardo, you'll probably go far in your industry, since you were willing to pick up a stick and publicly batter Bobby Knight. Next time, try to add some level of intelligence or understanding of the issues to your arguments. Thanks.


I felt the same way when I heard Dan Patrick and Keith Olberman interview Pete Rose, when Pete contradicted the Dowd Report and his prior comments by saying he bet on the Reds to win every night. Keith at least stepped in and offered that Pete was adding fuel to the fire so to speak, but it seems so obvious that Rose is saying whatever he feels will garner sympathy and gain acceptance back into baseball regardless of what the "evidence" shows.

Still I get the feeling when listening to garbage like this, that these guys revel in publicly teasing a dog if it would help their ratings or Q factor.

GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR BRACKETS.

Saturday, March 10, 2007

High Schools, and Polls and Steroid Tests!! OH MY!!


I've posted some survey and poll numbers here from newspapers around the country regarding the steroid issue at the high school level. My thought and comments follow in BOLD (CAPS). Any resemblance to the IM convention of putting words into all - caps as a sign of anger is purely coincidental. ;) - CS

Today, more and more school districts consider steroid tests to combat the problem of use of performance-enhancing drugs by athletes.

Fourth Amendment's prohibition on unreasonable searches and seizures affords students privacy protections, and to get around that school districts often send the results only to parents or the student's doctor.

However, two U.S. Supreme Court decisions, one in 1995 and another in 2002, paved the way for districts to be able to drug-test despite concerns they are unjustified invasions of privacy.




In a survey of students done for the California Interscholastic Federation in March 2004, 11 percent of boys, 42,032 student athletes, and 5 percent of girls, 13,711 student athletes, admitted taking performance-enhancing drugs or
supplements.


5% GIRLS - 11% BOYS TAKE PED'S OR SUPPLEMENTS - DOESN'T ADDING THE CAVEAT "OR SUPPLEMENT" MAKE THE RESULTS SEEM UNBELIEVABLY AND ABSURDLY LOW. - CS


From Maryland's Carroll County Times survey, where roughly 1 in 6 athletes said they knew of steroid use:

Five years ago, the Times conducted a survey with 88 first-team all-county athletes from the spring season. We asked the athletes a "yes or no" question -- if they had any knowledge of prep athletes taking steroids, and 14 of them said yes.


So roughly one out of every six all-county kids from that spring knew of someone who was abusing steroids while participating in athletics.


ONE IN SIX KIDS "KNEW OF" SOMEONE WHO WAS TAKING STEROIDS? DOESN'T THAT SEEM RIDICULOUSLY LOW? ANY TEAM I'VE EVER PLAYED ON IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THE NUMBER SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO 100% KNEW OF, WITH THE ONES ANSWERING NO SUSPECTED OF BEING PARANOID OF GIVING UP THE COVER-UP BY ANSWERING THE QUESTION POSITIVELY - CS


New Jersey recently became the first state to test prep athletes for steroid abuse, and the latest results showed no positives out of 150 tests.

OH FOR 150. AND FROM A POOL OF PLAYERS MOST LIKELY TO TEST POSITIVE, THE WINNERS AND CHAMPS - CS

National studies have shown 2 percent of teenagers use steroids before they graduate.

2%, 2% ALL THIS FOR 2%? I'D LIKE IT TO BE ZERO ALSO, BUT THE NUMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE YARD ON THIS ISSUE, AND YET WE'RE MAKING POLICY DECISIONS BASED ON THE HIGHEST NUMBER, AS IF THAT MUST BE THE MOST ACCURATE. SEEMS LIKE A RATHER SILLY PREMISE, BUT THAT'S YOUR TAX DOLLARS AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AT WORK. BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE SAME PEOPLE WHO GAVE YOU THE DEPARTMENT OF MOTOR VEHICLES AND $500 TOILET SEATS. -CS

Aaron vs. Bonds Career Statistics



To pick up the conversation, so to speak, from my previous post dated February 24,2007 and titled "Steroids? And the HR King? Say it isn't so Hank!":

Around the time that Barry Bonds passed Babe Ruth and starting making his move towards Hank Aaron, I wanted to take a look at both men's home run path throughout their careers and put it into the context of both the era in which each man performed , as well as historically. Were Bonds career numbers or career path or trajectory similar to Aaron's or were they significantly different in some way?

The method I thought would be the fairest to answer the most relevant questions was to compare the rate at which each man slugged home-runs (HR Rate or HR/AB) vs. the League Average (Total League HR's/ Total League AB's). In this way, we would see how well each man performed vs. the "average" player in his league that year. Pretty simple, right? This is basically how your IQ score is computed, your score is compared to the entire population of scores to determine a mean-adjusted score.

I took each year's statistics (from Baseball_Reference.com) and charted the results.
What I expected to see was Aaron being the better home-run hitter from age 25-32 and Bonds overtaking him in the latter stages from age 35-40.

First, I took a detour and wanted to get a look at how other "great" players and home-run hitters performed to see what the "normal" path should look like. This is similar to what some of the SABR guys are referring to as "career trajectory" and is used to find out at what age most players peak and when skills decline. Some of the work I've seen here indicates that players generally peak statistically around age 27 and their skills begin to decline around age 32-33. This is a generalization for the entire population of players. I wanted to see if the same thing applies to the smaller population of elite home-run hitters.

When we charted the data, we looked at what age did a player showed his best years (peak) and when did he show his last improvement (decline) and I also looked at when the player had the best two year periods in his career to look for when they were able to put long-term sustained excellence together. Looking at some of the SABR career trajectory graphs of the great sluggers of the past, we did see quite a few different looking career trajectories. In other words, there isn't a clearly defined "norm" for elite players, who by their very nature are not normal. They are freaks of nature, superstars. That's why we watch them.

Recall that Willie Mays power hitting skills diminished around age 34-35 and seemingly fell of a cliff thereafter, whereas Henry Aarom seemed to continue on strong even after age 35. McGwire's career seems to mimic Mays (partly due to injuries) whereas Bonds appears to look more like Aaron and Ted Williams. Small sample by definition, but you clearly have to start somewhere.

Here's a look at some of the all-time elite home-run hitters and when they peaked in their respective careers: (click to enlarge)



Not much in the way of surprises, although its interesting that both Bonds and Aaron had "peak" years in the early stages of their careers (25-28 age) and then a resurgence of sorts late career (35-38 age).

Next, we looked at the Average players and the Elite players home-run rate to see what changed from the 70's to 90's. Clearly, the rate of home-runs changed (chicks dig the long-ball) for a variety of reason that are noted. Those changes seem to have occurred across the board, indicating that they were the result of changes that would effect virtually all players somewhat equally.

Comparison of "Average" Players and "Elite" Players from the 70's vs. the 90's with factors which could contribute to the change in rate of HR's: (click to enlarge)



If you notice the comparison of players with 500 AB's, the Average players fly under the radar going from:
5 to 6 HR's for your basic banjo-hitter
10 to 13 HR's for your slap-hitting middle infielder
15-20 HR's for your decent hitters
20-26 HR's for your lower tier sluggers
and 25 to 33 HR's for your budding superstars.
Not very noticable differences and certainly not "hallowed record" threatening numbers.

But the guy from the 70's who was
hitting 30 HR's jumps to 40 HR's in the 90's,
the 40 HR guy becomes a 50 HR guy,
and the career year guy who hits 50 HR's in the 70's,
jumps right up to 66 HR's in the 90's.

So it seems as if, at least perceptually, the effect was more pronounced among the upper-tier sluggers. If a guy has a career year in the 90's (as Maris did in the 60's
and certainly Ruth did in the 20's when he socked 60 HR's) that guy is going to challenge history.

This is based on comparing the Mean League HR Rate throughout Aaron's career (2.225%)
to the Mean League HR Rate throughout Bonds' career (2.835%). An increase of approximately 27% on Average. In other words, the AVERAGE player hit home-runs at a 27% higher rate during Bonds years than during Aaron's years.

And if the AVERAGE player increased 27%, how much would you expect the superstar sluggers HR rate to increase? I'm not sure that the approximately 40% higher rate that Bonds stroked HR's throughout his career than Aaron (9.436% Bonds vs. 6.473% Aaron) is totally unexpected or unrealistic under the circumstances.

The 90's became the "chicks dig the long ball era" and attendance rose accordingly. And it had to after various labor pissing matches and a cancelled World Series. SO more than anyhting else, Home Runs saved baseball, not Sosa and McGwire exclusively, but HR's throughout baseball. Sosa and MGwire would only change attendance at Wrigley and Busch, for the most part. But attendance increased throughout baseball with some minor exceptions.

And so not only did chicks dig the long-ball, but owners did too, because when attendance rises, revenue rises. And when revenue rises, profits rise and when profits rise, owners bank accounts rise. And when owners bank accounts rise, that makes something else rise for owners faster than when they take those little-blue pills and without any of the nasty side-effects. Just a little Economics 101 for you, on the house.

If you don't believe me, go to BaseballGraphs.com and look at the graphs for Home Runs and attendance and see if you don't notice a close correlation between the two.
It's how baseball pulled itself out of the Black Sox scandal and it's how they did it again after the scandalous and ill-advised World Series cancellation.

Is this conclusive proof of owners hands in manufacturing higher home-run rates to increase attendance? NO. Is it the equivalent of a positive steroid test? NO. But does it meet the same rough equivalent, circumstantial evidence that has been used to convict many current players i the court of public opinion? YES. So, I would have to say, if you're willing to live by the sword of innuendo, you should be willing to die by the same sword.

Here is the graph comparing Aaron vs. Bonds career numbers by age: (click to enlarge)



You can see from the graph that the two players career paths move in fairly close lock-step. Some years Aaron jumps up and overtakes Bonds, other years Bonds is ahead, never by too much. In fact, if you look at the mean-adjusted HR Rate and compared each guy at 25, 26,27, etc, throughout until age 40, Aaron wins the competition 8-7. He was a better HR hitter on a relative basis for more years in his career than Bonds.

So maybe, it's time for Aaron to be the classy gentleman he is alleged to be and understand that the old saw "records were made to be broken" applies to all records, including this one.

Also, maybe it's time for any jackass who refers to this record as "hallowed", almost as if it were some sort of religious shrine or icon that's never to be disturbed, needs to either get a life at best or a better understanding of religion at worst.

These records are not a deity and neither are the person(s) who set them or break them. And neither are they the devil personified.

And maybe it's time for the owners to start stepping up and taking some of the heat, some of the tar and feathering, some of the public lynching for this so-called scandal. As I recall, our current President was at the epicenter of some of the most egregious "alleged" usage. And most, if not all of them profited from the popularity of the efforts of guys like McGwire and Sosa. Now, they want to publicly run away from them as if they didn't know what was going on. Scattering like kids caught with their hands in the proverbial cookie jar.

For these scumbags to remain silent on the sidelines, letting the players twist slowly in the wind in this public lynching is beyond repugnant, in my opinion. Where are the beer-baron Busch's, who pocketed gate receipts from fans eager to see McGwire perform? Or the corporate giants like the Wrigley's and the Tribune Company in Chicago, who benefit ted immensely by having Sosa as the marquee player for the lovable losers known as the Cubs? They sure knew how to cash the checks when the money was flowing their way.

There's always been a symbiotic relationship between owners and the press in baseball. The press (local or national) has often been used as a tool by the owners to whip up a public frenzy against individual players or the entire union when it suits ownership, either individually or en masse. That's been true throughout the history of baseball. Anyone who denies it or is either naive or lying.

I don't know why it's so hard to see the fingerprints on the smoking gun on this one.
But the issue gets clouded more and more each day by some of the willing co-conspirators in the media in my opinion.

It's high time for people to stop banging the drum against the game of baseball. Baseball hasn't been as popular as it is now in quite some time, certainly not in my lifetime. I think it's time to get off the issue or at the least give it the same relative importance that is attached to football players who cheat. Cheating is cheating. And the effect on our nation's youth is the same regardless of the sport. Can't have it both ways. You can't have the hypocrisy of crucifying one sport and letting the other one have a pass. And save the lame excuses about the strength of each sports respective drug policies being a factor, that's insulting people's intelligence.

Just look at the recent Orlando case. Gary Matthews gets whipped publicly every day and by proxy baseball does also. The Pittsburgh Steeler team doctor puts enough HGH on a personal credit card to juice an army and says it's for his nursing home patients and weekend warriors, not the football team. And the media is like Sgt. Schultz in Hogan's Heroes, "I see nothing, nothing".

As the kids say today, whatever. I guess the nations youth aren't influenced by football after all, even though we constantly hear that it, and not baseball, is the new national pastime. And that the participation numbers are higher in youth football than any other sport. And we don't see HS offensive and defensive lineman weighing 300+ pounds and running sub 5.0 40 yard dashes. Not sure I need much testing to you what's going on there.

These are Bonds career numbers: (click to enlarge)



These are Aaron's career numbers: (click to enlarge)



Many thanks for all the help in providing the stunning visual effects (charts, graphs) have to go to my wife, who by the way, is my personal favorite stunning, visual effect. Thanks, honey.

Thursday, March 08, 2007

From Kissing Suzy Kolber: I am an Insufferable Dipshit




From the hilarious blog "Kissing Suzy Kolber" (guys you know you want to, even though she always looks like she just came from a Bill Walton bong-testing party. For goodness sake, Hall of Fame lady-killer Joe Namath has some taste, even when he's drunk as a skunk).

When writing is this good, it can be inspiring. For example, I used to watch "The Sports Reporters" and get all twisted just hoping that one of the other reporters would, just once, sack up and punch this yappy, little panty-waisted, lap-dog.

Now that I realize these cretins are mere pawns, puppets if you will, in Lupica's grand scheme, I have now cleared my personal To Do List and amended it as follows:

1) Change major to journalism
2) Get job with major metropolitan newspaper in the sports department
3) Win Pulitzer Prize
4) Get gig on Sports Reporters
5) Punch Lupica square in the face, multiple times, while he screams his little whiny, girl screams of anguish and pain


I didn't realize there were others who felt the same way, I thought perhaps these anti-social thoughts were the result of some characters defect on my part. I now feel a warm humanitarian-type glow (like the tree-huggers) to be a part of a wonderful community of people who feel the same way I do about the scumbag.

God, I love the blogosphere.
And God Bless America, where you can dream of making it to the top and piss it all away in one act of savage vengeance.
Is this the greatest country in the world or what?

http://kissmesuzy.blogspot.com/2006/12/i-am-insufferable-dipshit_19.html

Tuesday, December 19, 2006
I Am An Insufferable Dipshit

Is the camera on me? Is it on? Did you check? I don't see the red light. Well, check it AGAIN. Why is the camera man so far away? Zoom in. No, I wanna be in more of the shot, you f**king zombies. Bring it in on me. Do you know where I got these glasses? Marc Jacobs. They cost more than your household's income for a year. So get a good f**cking shot, or I'll just make you do it again.

Is it my turn to talk yet? Albom's still fucking talking. He's been talking for 30 seconds now. I've been timing it. It's my fucking turn to talk. Are you looking at me? I'm sitting all the way at the front of my seat. That should indicate to you that I am READY TO CHIME IN. In fact, my ass isn't even touching the chair, that's how far forward I am. I am the goddamn crouching tiger. Look at Ryan. He's sitting all the way back in his chair. Does he have anything to say? No. Lazy shit. Read my fucking body cues, people.

Pffffffffftttttt!!!! Who gave me this tea? Who?! That girl? Come here, Guadalupe, or whatever your name is. Let me let you in on a little secret, my dear. You remember Mr. Schaap? The nice old man who used to be here? Remember how he died due to malpractice? Yeah, well that wasn't malpractice. That was Lupica. I am the star here now, and you better fucking get used to it. So when I tell you that I want Earl Grey, I don't expect you to bring me fucking sawdust in a Tetley bag. Okay, sweetheart? Tazo. T-A-Z-O. See if you can get that into that teeny tiny itsy bitsy wittle brain of yours. Stupid bitch.

And while we're at it, honey, who told you I drink Deer Park? Deer Park is for the poor saps in payroll. Everyone at Valerio Productions knows Lupica drinks Voss, chilled to exactly 38 degrees Fahrenheit. So why don't you do your homework before giving me this prison sludge? Frankly, I'm amazed you managed to get out of Nicaragua, or Costa Rica, or wherever the fuck it is you're from. Oh, you're crying? You thought I was a nice man, didn't you? Sorry, sweetie. My heart only bleeds for the camera.

Is Albom done? Yes, he's done. About fucking time. That was a nice parting shot, Albom. But you're the undercard, pussy. The people aren't here to see you. Always remember that. I'm about to blow you out of the fucking water. When I'm done, no one will remember whatever hockey bullshit it was you were talking about. Go write another book about people dying, douchebag. I'm about to school you. Take notes and maybe you'll be able to earn enough money to fix whatever the fuck is going on with the tops of your ears.

I'm ready now. My voice is feeling supple. What I'm gonna do is start off with a killer joke. Okay? Here it is:

You know, maybe it's me, but I think Roger Goodell must be taking commissioning lessons from Bud Selig.

Okay, I'm going to half-snicker at my own killer joke now, which is the cue for you three bozos to start guffawing like the idiots that you are. Then, when you're done laughing at my comedic majesty, I'm gonna turn deadly serious. It's gonna show off my range. Watch.

But seriously. If Goodell thinks he can just sweep steroids under the rug, then he is doomed to repeat baseball's history. Because there's a story about steroids and the NFL that has yet to be written. And rest assured, someone will write it. And, when they do, the same bloodhounds that picked at baseball's decade-old scabs will pick up a fresh scent... the scent of pigskin.

BOOM! F**king nailed it. You see how literary that was? It's almost like I'm outside of my own body when I'm doing it. That's how special it feels. That's the kind of sportswriting that wins you awards, gentlemen. The kind that gets you on Letterman. How many of you assholes have been on Letterman? That's right. Zero. Check and mate. Live with the pain.

Okay, what I'm gonna do now is wrap it all up with one killer fucking line. Something for the kids to think about the rest of the day.

So Goodell better hurry, or else he'll find out the hard way, as baseball did, that ignorance is a miss.

See how I took the phrase "ignorance is bliss" and just gave it that little twist? God, what a dagger. It makes you laugh. It makes you ponder. It makes you wistfully nostalgic. It makes me cream my Brooks Brothers suit pants. You know what? I think I want to shoot it again.

Did you hear me? I said I want to shoot it again. Matter of fact, I don't see my book on the coffee table here. WHERE THE F**K IS MY BOOK?! You think I come here as a gift?! I want to do it again, and I want my book in the shot. And, if we have to do it 36 times over, we will. What I say, goes. I f**king own you people.

Just ask Whitlock.

proclaimed this day by Big Daddy Drew at 7:44 AM

Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.