Giants - Padres games just got more interesting

Pagan, Norris exchange words

https://vine.co/v/eBPMpOB9lMd

Two sides to every story. Looked like Pagan was tossing towards Norris, perhaps over Pagan stepping out late on Kimbrell. Padres were pissy with home plate umpire all night, stepping out late is an issue for the umpire. But Pagan should be above that juvenile behavior. The triple said more than a gum toss could ever do. Stick with that. As for Norris, those shin guards will take a 95 MPH fastball being tossed, a piece of gum shouldn't bother in the least. Pagan does bring some spirit to the Giants game, sometimes they need that. 

Alex Pavlovic        ✔ @AlexPavlovic
Pagan said there was a piece of gum in batters box. He tried to throw it, it stuck to his glove and ended up under Norris, who got pissed.

Dennis Lin @dennistlin
Derek Norris on Angel Pagan: "He was just being kind of a dickhead, and I don’t take kindly to that."

Bad News: Angel Pagan's balky back barking again

Barely replacing Pablo...going to miss Morse even more...lethargic spring offense....Timmy's got a pain in the neck....Bumgarner's arm is going to fall off....and now this!!

Just another day in paradise.

from Mercurynews.com
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/giants/2015/03/19/pagan-getting-injection-stiff-back-least-three-days/

Outfielder Angel Pagan, who already has missed the last several days of spring training, is receiving an injection Thursday for lower back stiffness and will miss at least the next three days of camp.

Pagan, who declared upon his arrival at spring training that he was completely healthy and ready to play the full season, hasn't played in a spring game since Saturday night. He has played in just seven spring games and is hitting .125 (2 for 16).      

Manager Bruce Bochy said Pagan is feeling slightly better and that the stiffness Pagan is feeling is not in the same place as where he had surgery to relieve a bulging disk late last season.

Bochy said Travis Ishikawa will start receiving more time in left field in Pagan's absence, with Gregor Blanco moving to center."

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Angel Pagan's Healthy Comeback as Good as Big Offseason Splash for Giants | Bleacher Report

The key to the Giants success could be the trainer and strength and conditioning staff. More production out of Pagan and Cain could offset the loss of production from losing Sandoval and Morse.

from Bleacher Report:
Angel Pagan's Healthy Comeback as Good as Big Offseason Splash for Giants | Bleacher Report:

The San Francisco Giants' biggest offseason addition might turn out to be a guy who was there all along.

No, not Matt Cain, though if the right-hander can return to ace-level status after surgeries on his elbow and ankle it'd go a long way toward solidifying San Francisco's rotation.

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Pagan done for season, it's Blanco or bust for Giants

Just what the doctor ordered. Not!!

from sbnation.com
Angel Pagan injury: Giants CF to have back surgery, out for season - SBNation.com:

"There was no sense trying," Bochy said of Pagan trying to return, per Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area. "This wasn't going to work." 

 Pagan hit .300/.342/.389 with 56 runs scored in 96 games for the Giants this season. He missed 44 games from June 15 to Aug. 7 with inflammation in his back earlier this season, and the Giants went 18-26. 

San Francisco was in first place with a seven-game lead when Pagan was placed on the disabled list, but when he returned they were in second place, two games out.

The Giants are 56-35 (.615) when Pagan starts this year, and 29-36 (.446) when he doesn't.

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Shouldn't Angel Pagan be the NL MVP, not Clayton Kershaw?

It is time for those Pagan-deniers (and there are still some) to admit the truth. Angel Pagan has an over-sized effect on the performance of the Giants offense. An almost immediate, demonstrable, statistically verifiable effect.

In small samples and large samples. Period. End of story.

from sfgiants.com:
Pagan, Morse likely out vs. Dodgers | sfgiants.com:

It has been the tale of two very distinct seasons for the Giants -- with and without Pagan in the lineup -- and that pattern held fast as San Francisco's hopes of winning the National League West continued to fade with a 6-2 loss.

The Giants are 56-34 (.672) with Pagan in the lineup and 26-34 (.433) without him. And so, here we are with 12 games left to play.

"He makes a big difference, the numbers show that," Bochy said. "If you look at the evidence, we miss him when he's not in the lineup. We're a different club. He's our leadoff hitter. He's our catalyst. He's the guy who kind of makes things go. When he's not in there, we've had a tough time, tougher than you would think, actually. But for some reason, the numbers are a lot different when he's not in our lineup."

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Here's a sample from the last ten days or so, culminating in that ghastly offensive display versus the Padres. Almost as soon as Pagan leaves, the Giants offense seizes up like an engine without oil. It may run OK for a little while, but eventually the engine comes to a stop.

from Yahoo Sports:
 http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7717/

Last 10 Games														Season To Date
Date	Opp.	Score	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sep 19	@SD	L 0-5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	.300	.342	.389	.731
Sep 15	@ARI	L 2-6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.302	.342	.391	.733
Sep 14	LAD	L 2-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.302	.342	.391	.733
Sep 13	LAD	L 0-17	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.305	.346	.395	.741
Sep 12	LAD	W 9-0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	.304	.345	.392	.737
Sep 11	ARI	W 6-2	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.307	.347	.396	.743
Sep 10	ARI	W 5-0	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	.305	.344	.392	.736
Sep 9	ARI	W 5-1	5	3	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.305	.344	.393	.737
Sep 7	@DET	L 1-6	5	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	.298	.339	.387	.726
Sep 6	@DET	W 5-4	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.299	.340	.390	.730

We saw last week how dominant Clayton Kershaw is and the effect he has on the team's overall winning percentage. But does that automatically make him the presumptive NL MVP candidate? And if he is that strong a candidate (and he is) due to W-L effect, then shouldn't Angel Pagan get some consideration as well?

Kershaw has to overcome the BBWAA bias against giving a pitcher both the Cy Young Award and the Most Valuable Player Award. That task alone presents a considerable hurdle. We see annually how the baseball writers cling to their biases like an anti-Obama voter.

Having accomplished that, the two main criteria it seems that most voters use to determine the winner is either some monstrously dominant, almost off the charts statistical year or a players perceived impact on a team's Won-Loss record ( the Kirk Gibson effect ). It's here where I think Pagan gets a foot in the door, the Kirk Gibson effect.

We did the math last week and noted that Kershaw was 19-3, now 20-3 with 3 no decisions and the Dodgers are now 89-67 overall. Since I was too lazy to find out what the Dodgers record in the 3 no-decision were, I give Kershaw two out of three. If he was knocked out my initial thought was maybe 1-2 or 0-3 but what the heck, if they were 3-0 then my bad.

That leaves the Dodgers 22-4 in Kershaw's 26 starts, a gaudy 0.846 winning percent.

They are 89-67 overall with a 0.5705 winning percentage, leaving them 67-63 minus Kershaw, a 0.515 winning percentage.

0.846 with Kershaw ( 22- 4 record )
0.515 without Kershaw ( 67 - 63 record )
---------
0.331 Kershaw effect in 26 games out of 156 games total

Here's where the sportswriter bias maybe comes in, let's do the math:

( 0.331 Kershaw effect ) times ( 26 games Kershaw applies the effect / 156 games total )
= 0.055 overall Kersahw effect on Dodgers winning percentage.

Apply same to Pagan / Giants:

0.672 with Pagan ( 56 - 34 record )
0.433 without Pagan ( 26 - 34 record )
--------
0.239 Pagan effect in 90 games out of 150 games total

( 0.239 Pagan effect ) times ( 90 games Pagan applies the effect / 150 games total
= 0.143 overall Pagan effect on Giants winning percentage.

Note: I didn't realize Giants were this bad with A.P., I would have guessed about .500 same as Dodgers minus Kershaw.

So, Pagan's effect would appear to be almost three times greater than that of Kershaw.

But I may be biased.

Clearly, on the games he pitches, Kershaw has a greater effect on winning, but that effect is only applied 26-28 times this season. Pagan, even though he has only played 100 and has a lesser per game effect, obviously is able to exert his presence more often.

I'm not sure I see the writer giving the MVP to a guy who played less than 100 games, in fairness Kirk Gibson played 150 games in his 1988 MVP season. He also had the benefit of Orel Hershiser as a teammate dominating in a similar fashion to Kershaw today.

I feel better making the case for Pagan rather than Pence ( shown below) especially the way that Hunter has been swinging the bat lately. (sorry Hunter)

The Stealth MVP Candidacy of Hunter Pence | FanGraphs Baseball

				The Stealth MVP Candidacy of Hunter Pence | FanGraphs ... Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary.
				View on www.fangraphs.com	Preview by Yahoo

His swing works most of the time.  With Pagan in the lead, it seems like the Giants at least occasionally get an early lead and let the pitching staff just sit on the opposition. Plays to the team strength, which is generally the bullpen. When Angel is not in there, it seems like the Giants get down 3-0 early and often. 

Tyler Beede and Daniel Carbonell in AZL (plus an Angel Pagan sighting) — Giant Potential

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SF Giants No. 2 prospect Tyler Beede | AZL Giants 2014

Beede debuts for Giants in AZL, which is good news. Better news is that a kid named Angel Pagan led off, played CF and went 2-3. H/T to Conner Penfold at the blog Giant Potential for providing the You Tube videos for both prospects. Where these guys fall on future prospect lists will be determined by somewhat limited performances so we take what we can get. Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com has already placed young Beede at #2 on the Giants list which may seem somewhat aggressive at first blush, but theoretically Beede should be a more polished, advanced prospect than Crick. The edge in pure stuff may lie with Crick for the time being but Beede should have more command and control of his.



It's good to have stuff, it's better to harness stuff.



from Giants Potential:

Beede strikes out two in first pro inning — Giant Potential:

Beede attacked hitters with a four-seam fastball that averaged between 92 and 94 miles per hour, topping out at 95, while using a mix of his changeup and curveball, which were both low-to-mid-80s offerings.

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SF Giants Cuban prospect Daniel Carbonell | AZL Giants 2014

from Giants Potential:

https://sfgiantpotential.squarespace.com/daily-prospect-recaps/2014/7/30/july-30-2014

AZL Giants: More to come from this game later, but for now, here's an inside look into the Giants' most intriguing prospect — Cuban center fielder Daniel Carbonell. In two games I've watched, Carbonell clearly shows a hit tool (from the right side only) that could push the 23-year-old quickly through San Francisco's system. His bat speed is quick and has a good amount of power behind it. I didn't get video Tuesday, but he hammered a double over the center fielder's head, one-hopping the fence at the 402-foot mark. His speed is a plus skill, as well, and his arm is rumored to be above-average, too, though I haven't seen it yet. His third at-bat in the below video was a ball smoked at the left-fielder, who had to leap and make a remarkable catch to avoid it getting by him. It would have surely led to a double or triple, likely reaching the wall on one or two bounces. Carbonell went 2-for-7 with a strikeout in a 13-inning contest.

Rewind: Bochy, Giants 'buffaloed' by home woes | CSN Bay Area

These things we once relied on: Home field advantage, fan support, pitching and defense, team chemistry all grinding to a halt for want of a solid lead-off hitter. I get that correlation does not imply causation but once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is a pattern. We've been down this road before.



Priority 1: Get Pagan back in the lineup or get a viable replacement for him.
Priority 2: Get Belt back in the lineup.

The Giants problems right now lie in the training room. The prognosis sounds better for Pagan and Belt than Scutaro and Cain at this point. Sanchez is getting beaten like a pinata back there and making the case everyday for moving Posey out of the catchers box and into the infield.

DISABLED LIST
NO.	NAME	POS	BAT	THW	AGE	HT	WT	BIRTH PLACE	SALARY
6	Ehire Adrianza DL15	2B	B	R	24	6-1	170	Guarenas, Venezuela	$500,500
9	Brandon Belt DL7	1B	L	L	26	6-5	219	Nacogdoches, TX	$2,900,000
18	Matt Cain DL15	SP	R	R	29	6-3	230	Dothan, AL	$20,833,333
16	Angel Pagan DL15	CF	B	R	33	6-2	202	Rio Piedras, PUERTO RICO	$10,250,000
29	Hector Sanchez DL7	C	B	R	24	6-0	234	Maracay, Venezuela	$512,000
19	Marco Scutaro DL15	2B	R	R	38	5-10	185	San Felipe, Venezuela	$6,666,667

from CSN Bay Area:
Rewind: Bochy, Giants 'buffaloed' by home woes | CSN Bay Area:

Cause and effect isn’t usually as simple as it sounds, but the Giants’ inability to compete at home correlates neatly with losing Angel Pagan to a lower back injury. The more you see them play without him, the more clear it becomes that this offense just doesn’t work in AT&T Park’s big spaces without him atop the order – especially when they aren’t hitting home runs. (Michael Morse hit four in his first 19 home games. He has zero in his last 38, dating to May 15.)

The Giants tried to change it up. Bochy tweaked the lineup. They even threw the baby out with the electrolytes, swapping out the blue sports drink that has filled the dugout jugs for several years with a reddish one.

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