The 2010 MLB Draft

THE BRYCE HARPER COMING OUT PARTY BEGINS MONDAY!!

The 2010 MLB Draft takes place Monday and while we will try to project the first round picks for each team, I will note that this exercise is in many ways different from doing the same exercise for the NFL or NBA drafts.

Due to the economic differential between the small market/large market teams and the fact that teams draft HS players who could go to college instead of playing pro ball there is a signability consideration that doesn't exist as much in the other two sports. Therefore, in theory the teams are not drafting entirely based on who the best player is talent wise as much as who the best player they can afford. The NFL and NBA drafts are based primarily on evaluation of the player’s talent; with organizational needs a second consideration. In baseball, organizational need is a minor factor because even college players may be a year or two away from helping the big club and HS players generally require 4-5 years of development.

Some teams focus on collegiate players who have less negotiating leverage (more signable) and can help the team now (or in the near future) but are more WYSIWYG-type players (What you see is what you get). Other clubs lean more towards the younger HS players, who are more projectable, have a "higher ceiling" or higher developmental potential. The feeling is these are potentially the superstars of the future and you have to lock them up and get them in your organization before they go to college. They are higher-risk, higher reward type players.

Add in the pre-draft agreements and the day of the draft last-minute calls to prospects to determine if they will sign for a certain figure if the team calls their name five minutes later and the draft can become a bit of a crap shoot. "Hey future Mickey Mantle, we're on the clock and we'd like to pick you with the 15th pick, how's $750,000 sound for a signing bonus?" If the kid laughs hang up, you just proceed to the next guy on your board. The kid sits on his signing number and hopes a better-heeled team will match his ticket price later. Even if the number doesn't meet the MLB imposed bonus number for that slot in the draft. A high-stakes game of poker goes on behind the scenes before the pick is delivered to MLB.

For these reasons, there may not be a Mel Kiper type equivalent in the MLB draft who can project the teams picks in advance with a high degree of accuracy. The way the system is set up doesn't allow for it. But we will try anyway, knowing in advance that theoretically, if you position enough monkeys in front of keyboards, eventually one of them will type out all 32 teams draft picks in correct order. The question then becomes, would you sign that monkey to your clubs farm director of the future? Heck, the Giants might.

HOW MANY MONKEYS WOULD IT TAKE BEFORE ONE OF THEM WOULD REPLICATE THIS BLOG POST??? HMMM......

Anyway, this draft seems laden with sandwich picks and RHP's. A little lighter on LHP's than prior years especially at the top if the draft. Maybe a little lighter on talent than the average year, so there will be a real premium placed on making your first pick count.

The Giants pick 24th in the first round and then not again until the 74th pick due to all the sandwiches. The Rays select 17th, WHAT!!! and the Cubs 16th. Doesn't seem to have much of a connection with reality does it. The White Sox pick 13th, which restores some semblance of reality to the picture.

Some other things I'll keep and eye on:

- IL RHP Michael Foltyniewicz may elevate past the sandwich picks and into the lower first round, although sandwich-early second round seems most likely.

- The usually highly regarded proving grounds for prepsters in Tampa Bay FL may not have a HS players name called until round 5. Perhaps LHP Daniel Gibson goes early or C Shame Rowand.

- The high pedigree players led by RHP Cameron Bedrosian, OF Delino DeShields Jr., RHP Mel Rojas, Jr. and INF Dickie Thon, Jr.

- The Giants first pick. Most of the early buzz centered on HS OF Austin Wilson, Jermaine Dye type corner OF with power. HS SS Yordy Cabrera's name has surfaced along with Nick Castellanos and Christian Colon, but neither prep SS nor Colon may be available when the Giants select. Cal-Fullerton OF Gary Brown could be a pick here, opinions vary on him but he could provide the most help immediately. I wouldn't argue with either Wilson or Brown, but would probably prefer Brown at this point.

It's where the pack of 12-15 RHP's sort themselves out that will make or break each prognosticators score. Add to that the occasional surprise and the seemingly annual tradition where the Twins surprise everybody with their first-rounder and you have the makings of a downright watch-able Major League baseball Draft.

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Here it goes:

1. Nationals - Bryce Harper, C 6-3 205 Southern Nevada CC – Will team up with Stephen Strasburg to give marquee value for the DC crowd. The LeBron James of baseball hype has faded a bit and his rep took a few dings, but the kid has future star written all over him.

2. Pirates - Manny Machado, SS 6-2,180 Miami Brito HS - A Scott Boras client with a plus arm, advance hitter with power potential, enough range to stay at SS. Committed to FIU.

3. Orioles - Jameson Taillion RHP 6-6,230 The Woodlands HS (TX) - High 90's FB, major league frame. Old school delivery. What's not to like?

4. Royals - Drew Pomeranz LHP 6-5, 235 Mississippi - Plus FB and CB. 12-6 type delivery.

5. Indians – Chris Sale LHP 6-5,175 Florida Gulf Coast - Next best LHP after Pomeranz. Could also go for a bat here, Michael Choice is a fit, but Sale may be too tempting to pass up here.

6. Diamondbacks - Deck McGuire RHP 6-6,220 Georgia Tech - Could be a workhorse top of the rotation starter. Three good pitches.

7. Mets - Zach Cox 3B 6-1,215 Arkansas - Safest pick for the Mets right now, fills need for a bat, good defensive player. Mets figure out the gloves later.

8. Astros – Michael Choice OF 6-1,215 Texas-Arlington - Will sweat it out but won't take long to grab this athletic, power prospect with good patience and discipline. NCAA leader in BB's.

9. Padres – Kolbrin Vitek 2B 6-3,195 Ball State – Good tools, productive bat. Can steal bases.

10. A's - Bryce Brentz OF 6-1,185 - Middle Tennessee State - Seems best fit for their budget and organizational philosophy. Advanced hitter with power potential.

11. Blue Jays - Christian Colon SS 6-1,190 Cal-State Fullerton - Top glove, average athlete. line drive, high contact, gap type hitter.

12. Reds - Alex Wimmers RHP 6-2,195 Ohio State - Could be Renaudo too. Wimmers may have home-field advantage. Polished pitcher, good control, advanced breaking stuff.

13. White Sox - Brandon Workman RHP 6-5 220 Texas - Talented and durable, four pitch pitcher. Good FB with workable change.

14. Brewers - Josh Sale OF 6-0, 200 - Strong and athletic, power potential. Signed with Gonzaga.

15. Rangers - Karsten Whitson RHP 6-4,190 Chipley HS - Good mechanics and commands the FB well. Solid mechanics, workable slider. Project for Nolan Ryan to work with and could begin the run on HS RHP's.

16. Cubs - Andrew Cole RHP Oviedo HS 6-5,190 - U. Miami signee. Strong-armed, three-pitches with low 90's FB and plus CB leading the way.

17. Rays - Nick Castellanos SS 6-4,210 Archbishop McCarthy HS - U. Miami signee. High ceiling type the Rays love. Might be the best pure hitter in the draft with some pop. Strong arm could move from SS-3B.

18. Angels - Dylan Covey RHP 6-2,200 Maranatha HS - San Diego signee. Good curveball, solid FB. Safe pick here.

19. Astros - Matt Harvey RHP 6-4, 225 North Carolina - FB can get to mid 90's. Cruises low 90's and gets ground balls.

20. Red Sox – Yasmali Grandal, C 6-2,210 U. of Miami - Switch-hitting C, good power, strong arm.

21. Twins - Asher Wojciechowski RHP 6-4,205 Citadel - His stuff turns heads, but opinions vary on where he'll go. High ceiling.

22. Rangers - Kaleb Cowart 3B/RHP 6-3,190 Cook HS (GA) - Two-way player has good power, plus hitter with minus speed limits him defensively and may move him to the bump.

23. Marlins - Austin Wilson OF 6-4,200 Harvard Westlake HS - Stanford commit. Big time power bat, strong hitter. Athletic corner OF.

24. Giants - Gary Brown OF 6-1,180 Cal State Fullerton - Good speed, could play well at top of the order. Plus speed with some pop. Defense may be an issue, weak arm.

25. Cardinals - Stetson Allie INF/P 6-1,180 St. Edward HS (OH) - Power arm, FB 93-95, with plus breaking ball.

26. Rockies - Kevin Gausman RHP 6-4,180 Grandview HS (CO) - Another power arm with clean mechanics. Breaking stuff needs work. Local product that Rocks may not be able to pass on.

27. Phillies - Yordy Cabrera SS 6-4, 190 Lakeland HS (FL) - Miami commit. Power potential. Smooth at SS. Too good to pass on here.

28. Dodgers - Aaron Sanchez RHP 6-3,170 Barshow HS (CA) - Oregon commit. Good upside potential here. Dodgers looking for an easy sign due to budget.

29. Angels - Justin O'Connor C/INF 5-10,170 Cowan HS (IN) - Versatile, solid hitter with power potential. Plus arm.

30. Angels - Brett Eibner P/INF 6-4,210 Arkansas - Two-way prospect, Pitching candidate. FB hits 95 with sink, plus slider.

31. Rays - Jesse Hahn RHP 6-5,190 Virginia Tech - Power arm with some injury concerns. Too good to pass on here. Solid three pitches.

32. Yankees - Zach Lee RHP 6-4,195 McKinney HS (TX) - LSU commit. Great arm, QB prospect for LSU with signability concerns. Not a problem for the Yankees.