‪USA Inc. - Where We Are, How We Got here, What May Be Next‬‏ - YouTube

‪USA Inc. - Where We Are, How We Got here, What May Be Next‬‏ - YouTube:

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I guess we should have listened more to Mary Meeker's analysis. The analysis seems incontrovertible IMO, it's the proposed solutions that end up mucking things up politically. I think most everyone understands that the math does not work in our favor.

Of course, we'll push the sound reasoning aside and Mary Meeker in ten years will look like Brooksley Born looks right now, like a voice of reason drowned out by the insane cries of madmen and idiots.

Uploaded by KPCBchannel on Jul 20, 2011

USA Inc. is a non-partisan report that looks at the U.S. federal government as if it were a business. Mary Meeker, Partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers and former research analyst at Morgan Stanley, created and compiled the report with the goal of informing the discussion about our financial situation and outlook. USA Inc. examines the country's income statement and balance sheet, aiming to interpret the underlying data and facts, and illustrate patterns and trends in easy-to-understand ways. The report also analyzes the drivers of federal revenue and the history of expense growth, and discusses basic scenarios for how revenue and expense growth might change to help America move toward positive cash flow. The full report, as well as the summary presentation, is available at kpcb.com/​usainc

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Other than release of a significant source of political power I'm not sure what the problem is with a Balanced Budget Amendment (BBA) or a Term Limits Amendment for the Congress. As S&P has now made clear, nobody has any faith in out so-called current leadership to actually make difficult decisions.

Almost every state has a (BBA), Switzerland and Germany (the "Schuldenbremse" or debt brake) have them and seem to be able to provide for it's citizens basic needs as well as emergency needs.

Neither one has funded any military adventures of late either, hmmmm.......

The Germans debt brake forbids deficits of more than 0.35% of GDP. I'm sure we can be flexible somewhat on that number, but not high enough where you could get into long-term difficulties, like we have now.

It seems as if the Keynesian Kool-Aid drinkers (like Paul Krugman), would vehemently (violently?) oppose any form of budgetary restraint. Even at the risk of throwing the entire economy off a cliff. One wonders why these kooks never have to endure being referred to as hostage-takers.

So far, I haven't heard any of these geniuses, or any of the numerous commissions, seriously suggest a return of Glass-Steagall Act.  OK, maybe Sheila Bair and the FDIC have made the suggestion (another woman running contrary to the generally accepted, conventional wisdom. Hmmmm.........Brooksley Born, Mary Meeker, now Sheila Bair.

Glass-Steagall worked well for over 60 years. It only took around a decade for Glass-Stegall's repeal and the Gramm-Leach-Billey Act of 1999 (aka also known as the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999) to bring the system to its knees. Throw in a little Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 (CFMA) and a dash of Community Reinvestment Act arm-twisting, and all the ingredients for a financial disaster are in the soup.

Leave on simmer and wait for the Bush Administration to become distracted by national security issues and you have a pretty toxic recipe.

Amazing how many of these seeds were planted during the wonderful Clinton administration when all we hear from the media experts was that was exclusively a Bush II - Reagan production.

Hmmmmm........skipped an administration there, about eight years worth of seed planting, some of it with Congressional majorities.

Seems to me as if you are lost, if you don't first establish where you are and how you got there, it becomes very difficult to figure out how to get to the correct destination. We still seem to have a problem with that whole "being honest with ourselves", "take a long hard look in the mirror" thing.  If that's the case, we could be stuck here for quite a while.

Does Bernanke still have some tricks up his sleeve

And if so, would now be the right time to play them? The S&P downgrade should pretty much wash away the lower interest rates that the last round of QE produced. The Dow is in the process of puking up it's QE induced rise faster than an incontinent baby. (see the charts and analysis from dshort.com below) You can say the recent decline is due to other factors, but I see it as a direct result of  "No Mo' POMO"


Your move Benny. I understand you have this thing called the printing press. Perhaps now would be the time to crank it up again? Definition of insanity.

All eyes on you this week Benny. Don't disappoint those "reverse Pavloivian dogs" of the financial markets and the "crisis creators" in DC. They work hand in glove, even as they appear at times -- like acts in a play -- to be at odds with each other.

Chart of the Day: Anticipating QE3:

"If a picture is worth a thousand words, this chart needs little additional explanation — except perhaps for those who are puzzled by the Jackson Hole callout. The reference is to Chairman Bernanke's speech at the Fed's 2010 annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Bernanke strongly hinted about the forthcoming Federal Reserve intervention that was subsequently initiated in November, namely, the second round of quantitative easing, aka QE2. The NY Times captured the essence of the speech here.

Will there be a round three? Do children like Disneyland?"

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Treasury Yields in Perspective:

"Quick take: Since the end of QE2, the yield on the 10-year note has dropped 60 basis points to 2.58%. The most recent Consumer Price Index (the July reading for June) stands at 3.56%, which gives us a real 10-year yield of -0.98%. In the wake of Standard & Poor's downgrade of U.S. long-term debt, it will be especially interesting to review this metric in the weeks ahead.

Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range has been astonishing. The stagflation that set in after the 1973 Oil Embargo was finally ended after Paul Volcker raised the FFR to 20.06%."

San Francisco Giants - Team Report - MLB - Yahoo! Sports

Basically, a swap of DeRosa for Belt as a utility man for the time being. Belt likely returns in September when rosters expand. Hinshaw joins Runzler as a LHP with a question mark due to control issues.

San Francisco Giants - Team Report - MLB - Yahoo! Sports:

"INF/OF Mark DeRosa, who had been out since May 19 due to a strained left wrist, was activated from the disabled list before Thursday's game. He's coming back from his latest wrist ailment. More than a year and a half into his two-year, $12 million contract, DeRosa has been little more than a bust, and he has less than two months to begin making up for his woes. DeRosa has had 130 at-bats as a Giant, and now he's making his latest bid to stay healthy after going 10-for-34 (.294) in a nine-game rehab assignment with Class AAA Fresno. His first role is backing up at first base.

1B/LF Brandon Belt was optioned to Class AAA Fresno for the third time in 2011, replaced on the roster by INF/OF Mark DeRosa. The move means 1B Aubrey Huff will keep getting action despite his season-long struggles. Belt went 5-for-21 (.238) with one homer and three RBI in his latest big-league stint.

LHP Alex Hinshaw was designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster for the return of INF/OF Mark DeRosa from the 60-day disabled list. Hinshaw had a 3.40 ERA in 48 games for the 2008 Giants and was most recently at Class AA Richmond, where he was 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA in 24 outings."

Giants Release Jose Casilla: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

This is a surprise, although considering the TJ surgery it may be a risk worth taking. Casilla was a very effective, if unspectacular pitching prospect. If they are able to re-sign him, assuming no other organization claims him, his arrival time is delayed by the surgery and subsequent rehab.

Giants Release Jose Casilla: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com:

"Giants Release Casilla [August 5, 2011 at 6:38pm CST]
The Giants have released Jose Casilla according to Henry Schulman of The San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links). The move frees up a 40-man roster spot for Waldis Joaquin, who could have opted out of his minor league contract had he not been added to the roster.

Casilla, 22, is the brother of Giants reliever Santiago Casilla. He had a 9.49 ERA in 12 1/3 innings for San Francisco's Single-A affiliate, and Schulman notes that he is recovering from Tommy John surgery. The team could opt to re-sign him to a minor league contract."

http://www.baycityball.com/2010/11/21/giants-add-three-pitchers-to-40-man/

* Jose Casilla, RHP, DOB: 5/21/89

Jose Casilla is the younger brother of current Giants’ reliever, Santiago Casilla. The younger Casilla has pitched primarily as a reliever over his career. He did make 14 starts as an 18-year-old in the Dominican Summer League back in 2007, but it appears that the Giants view him more as a reliever. Over the past two years and 81.1 innings pitched, Casilla has not started a single game. In the Giants minor league Top 20, John Sickels ranked Casilla as the #6 prospect in the Giants’ system and made note of his power-sinker. I can’t find much in the way of scouting reports for Casilla. However, his ground-out/air-out rate this season in Augusta was a healthy 2.46. Further giving credence to the groundballer theory, in 185.2 innings pitched in the minors, Casilla has given up just 2 home runs.

E:60 The Grandy Man - ESPN Video - ESPN

Cool story. I liked Granderson as a player before seeing this story. I like him even more as a person now.


E:60 The Grandy Man - ESPN Video - ESPN:

"Yankees All-Star Curtis Granderson could get away with living the bling lifestyle, but that's not who Granderson is. Exemplifying this, as E:60's Rachel Nichols discovered, is his bond with the family of Brian Bluhm, a lifelong Detroit Tigers fan who was gunned down in the Virginia Tech shootings in 2007."

I ♥ Marco Rubio (II)

Rubio not only schools John Kerry, but Senator McCain (IMO) with a backhanded swipe about not being in the Senate "long enough". I guess in DC being a part of the solution is worse than being part of the entrenched problem. According to McCain, Mr. More of the Same.

I appreciate how Kerry at the very least acknowledges Rubio's willingness to allow Kerry to interrupt his speech with questioning (at about the 7:30 mark) runs counter to the culture and behaviour amongst the esteemed Senators. Doesn't sound like the TP extremists are quite as closed minded and extreme as they are portrayed. One man's not compromising his principles is another man's closed-mindedness.

But Rubio does a better job of defending himself than I could ever do.

With facts, not smoke and mirrors. We <3 Marco Rubio. The Conservative Manifesto -- In great victories, expect attacks.: Sen. Rubio Nails Debt Speech (and Schools John Kerry in the Process):

"MONDAY, AUGUST 1, 2011
Sen. Rubio Nails Debt Speech (and Schools John Kerry in the Process)

It's fourteen minutes long and worth every minute.

Sen. Rubio: "Save the Whole House or It Will All Burn Down"

San Francisco Giants - Team Report - MLB - Yahoo! Sports

D-BACKS WEREN'T SUPPOSED TO BE THIS GOOD - GUESS I BETTER RE-CHECK MY NUMBERS. YEAH, I'LL DO THAT.

San Francisco Giants - Team Report - MLB - Yahoo! Sports:

"'We've got 50-some-odd games to go, and I hope nobody's hit the panic button quite yet.'
—RHP Tim Lincecum, after the Giants fell into a tie for first place with a 6-1 loss to Arizona on Tuesday."

No, not yet Timmy. But it probably wouldn't hurt to be aware of where the button is and what the procedures are when we do hit it.

I mean, Carlos Beltran is hitting about as well as Brandon Crawford was and we just sent him down for reassignment.

Keppinger is scuffling. He's hitting about as well as Burris or Culberson could have hit for us.

And these are the guys we bought in to help the offense.

I know, small sample size and all that.

And, not to mention Timmy, but since you asked -- THE ACE OF OUR STAFF IS 9-9!!!

What?? Vogelsong is 8-1 you say? HAHAHAHAHA!!!

I understand run support, or lack thereof, and we've kinda been there done that with Cain and all. My problem Timmy is this, they measure who gets in the playoffs by W-L record. Cumulative. By Team. No other metric. So tell the SABR-cats to shut up and just start winning.

Until then, I'm glad -- for now -- that I know where the panic button is.

You just let me know when it IS OK to hit the panic button. OK? Thanks Timmy.

The media accidentally finds Sarah Palin to be smarter than Obama

from the Washington Times: The Robbins Report:
Sarah the Smarty
June 17, 2011

Sarah Palin's critics routinely mock her intellect, so when the state of Alaska released 24,000 emails she wrote while serving as governor, "AOL Weird News," an offbeat component of AOL.com, had a representative sample analyzed to see how well she wrote. They expected the results to confirm their anti-Palin bias, but they were in for a surprise.

Far from being an illiterate bumpkin, the standard Flesch-Kincaid readability test showed that Ms. Palin's emails were written at an 8.5 grade level. This was "an excellent score for a chief executive," AOLWN reported. To put some perspective on this number, Martin Luther King's August 1963 "I Have a Dream" speech -- much more heavily edited than Ms. Palin's emails -- ranked at 8.8 on the same scale, while Lincoln's Gettysburg Address came in at 9.1.

A study by Smart Politics on the readability ratings of recent State of the Union addresses also showed Ms. Palin in good company. President George H.W. Bush's average SOTU score was 8.6. Bill Clinton came in at 9.5. Ronald Reagan, who like Ms. Palin was heavily criticized by liberals and regarded as a doddering old fool, logged an impressive 10.3 rating. And George W. Bush, who earned even more left-wing contempt than Mr. Reagan, if that's possible, edged the Great Communicator with a10.4 ranking.

Then there is President Obama, heralded as the smartest president and the most gifted orator in living memory, but whose 2008 "Yes we can!" victory speech came in at a comparatively anemic Flesch-Kincaid rating of 7.4. Some numbers just speak for themselves.

Medical News: Heat Illness and Concussions

Medical News: Heat Illness Strikes Male, Teen Athletes Harder - in Emergency Medicine, Emergency Medicine from MedPage Today:

"Males and teens are most likely to require a trip to the emergency department for a heat illness related to sports or another recreational activity, researchers found.

From 2001 to 2009, males accounted for nearly three-quarters (72.5%) of emergency department visits for heat illness following such physical activity, according to Ellen Yard, PhD, an Epidemic Intelligence Service officer at the CDC, and colleagues.

Those most affected were 15- to 19-year-olds, who accounted for 35.6% of visits, the researchers reported in the July 29 issue of Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report"

Among the findings:

Although the vast majority of patients were treated and released, 7.1% required hospitalization or transfer to another facility for further care. The hospitalization rate was higher in males (8.9% versus 2.4%) and in those 55 and older than in younger individuals (18.8% versus 4.6%).

Overall, most cases of heat illness occurred during football games (24.7%) and exercise such as walking, jogging, and calisthenics (20.4%).

For males, the most common activity leading to heat illness was football for those younger than 20, exercise for those 20 to 44, and golf for those 45 and older.

For females, the most common activity leading to heat illness requiring a trip to the ED was baseball/softball for those 14 and younger, track and field for those 15 to 19, and exercise for those 20 and older.

Yard and colleagues noted that all heat illnesses are preventable.

"Coaches of organized sports teams should schedule frequent rest breaks and encourage fluid consumption, particularly on days that are very hot or humid," they wrote. "Practices that begin during summer months should increase frequency, duration, and intensity gradually to allow athletes to acclimate to the heat."

"In addition to recommendations for sports teams," they continued, "recommendations for individual participants include wearing lightweight, light-colored, and loose-fitting clothing; exercising early or late in the day when it is cooler; and having an exercise partner."

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Quinn signs school athletes concussions legislation - chicagotribune.com:

"Student athletes from elementary to high school will get better safeguards against concussion injuries under a new law that takes effect immediately.

Gov. Pat Quinn signed the measure Thursday in Chicago. It says that student athletes with concussions must get medical approval before resuming play. The law also requires education for coaches, parents, referees and players about concussion symptoms.

Several other states have enacted similar laws.

Repeat concussions and returning to play too soon raises risks for permanent brain damage.

The law requires school boards across Illinois to join with the Illinois High School Association in developing guidelines and educational materials about concussions for coaches, student athletes and parents."

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UPDATE

Tragic real-world consequences every day.

Two Ga. high school football players die
http://msn.foxsports.com/collegefootball/story/two-Georgia-high-school-football-players-die-after-training-workouts-080211?GT1=39002

NewsCore

Updated Aug 3, 2011 2:53 AM ET
A 16-year-old Georgia high schooler was found dead at a football camp in Florida's Columbia County on Tuesday, WJXT-TV reported.

Hours later, another 16-year-old Georgia high schooler died in an Atlanta hospital a week after being admitted suffering what doctors believe was heat exhaustion, WSB-TV reported.

Donteria Searcy was found unresponsive in his cabin about 11:15 a.m. local time Tuesday, after Fitzgerald (Ga.) High School's football team had finished a morning workout at Florida's O'Leno State Park, where it is holding a summer training camp.

Searcy was taken to a nearby hospital, but attempts to resuscitate him were unsuccessful.

An autopsy will be carried out to determine the cause of death, but police do not suspect foul play.

In Atlanta, Locust Grove High School's Forrest Jones died about 9:30 p.m. local time Tuesday. He was admitted to a hospital on July 25 after collapsing following an optional team workout.

Jones' uncle told WSB-TV that doctors believed his death was caused by a heat stroke or heat exhaustion.

The two Georgia students' deaths came just a few days after a rising high school football player collapsed and died after practice in Darlington, SC.

Tyquan Xavier Brantley, 14, was walking off the field with his Lamar High School team Saturday when he collapsed. He was taken to a nearby hospital and was pronounced dead about 7 p.m. local time.

Thoughts on the Debt "Resolution" from The Who, Ron Paul and Macbeth

Wont Get Fooled Again

In its May 26, 2006 issue, the conservative National Review magazine published a list of "The 50 greatest conservative rock songs." "Won't Get Fooled Again" was ranked song number one. Pete Townsend responded on his blog as follows:

"It is not precisely a song that decries revolution - it suggests that we will indeed fight in the streets - but that revolution, like all action can have results we cannot predict. Don't expect to see what you expect to see. Expect nothing and you might gain everything.''

Townsend then goes on to explain that the song was simply ''Meant to let politicians and revolutionaries alike know that what lay in the center of my life was not for sale, and could not be co-opted into any obvious cause.''

Won't Get Fooled Again Lyrics

We'll be fighting in the streets
With our children at our feet
And the morals that they worship will be gone
And the men who spurred us on
Sit in judgment of all wrong
They decide and the shotgun sings the song

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
And I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again

Change it had to come
We knew it all along
We were liberated from the fall that's all
But the world looks just the same
And history ain't changed
'Cause the banners, they all flown in the last war

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
And I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
No, no!

I'll move myself and my family aside
If we happen to be left half alive
I'll get all my papers and smile at the sky
For I know that the hypnotized never lie

Do ya?


There's nothing in the street
Looks any different to me
And the slogans are replaced, by-the-bye
And the parting on the left
Is now the parting on the right
And the beards have all grown longer overnight

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
No, no!

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!

Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss

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from Macbeth:

Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day
To the last syllable of recorded time,
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

from The Daily Capitalist blog:
Budget Debate Fraud Part 2 | The Daily Capitalist:

By the way, according to this note in the Wall Street Journal, we already have a de facto rating cut:

One-year CDS were quoted Monday at 0.45 percentage point, down from 0.75 percentage point Friday and a move equivalent to a drop of €30,000 in the cost of protecting €10 million ($14.4 million) of U.S. government debt, according to Markit. … Monday’s CDS levels now imply a credit rating of double-A on U.S. Treasurys, lower than their current triple-A rating and consistent with what some ratings companies believe is more appropriate for U.S. sovereign debt. Standard & Poor’s, for example, has threatened to cut the U.S. credit rating if Congress doesn’t produce viable austerity measures that will fix the U.S. deficit over the long term. 

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from Ron Paul:

When a Cut is Not a Cut

“One might think that the recent drama over the debt ceiling involves one side wanting to increase or maintain spending with the other side wanting to drastically cut spending, but that is far from the truth. In spite of the rhetoric being thrown around, the real debate is over how much government spending will increase.

No plan under serious consideration cuts spending in the way you and I think about it. Instead, the "cuts" being discussed are illusory, and are not cuts from current amounts being spent, but cuts in projected spending increases. This is akin to a family "saving" $100,000 in expenses by deciding not to buy a Lamborghini, and instead getting a fully loaded Mercedes, when really their budget dictates that they need to stick with their perfectly serviceable Honda. But this is the type of math Washington uses to mask the incriminating truth about their unrepentant plundering of the American people…” -- Ron Paul

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