The Slav's Baseball Blog - BASEBALL 24-7-365
The Slav's Blog about anything relating to the great game of baseball
- and other less important issues from outside the diamond.
The best baseball blog that you have never heard of.
With 2/3 of the baseball season in the books, this is what it boils down to if you are a baseball fan: Your team is either playing Musical Chairs or Spoiler.
And the bad news is this: 60% of the teams in MLB baseball are relegated to playing the role of Spoiler rather than contender. At least if you believe the playoff odds as posted on coolbaseballstandings.com
The 12 contenders -- ATL, PHI, STL, CIN, SD, SF in the NL and NY, TB, BOS, MIN, CHI and TX in the AL -- are beginning to jockey for position and seeding, Musical Chairs. Six teams are in serious contention in each league competing for four playoff positions.
The other 60% of MLB -- 60% of the teams -- are playing for next year. And there are two months left in the season. Is this the parity of which you speak?
2/3 of the season gone and we've eliminated almost 2/3 of the teams. That's efficient, brutally efficient, and certainly not good for fan interest. Do we see the same in the NFL? No, I don't think so. Most teams are still in the hunt until about the last two weeks or so. Let's see 2/16 = 12.5%. Carry the one and...
So, baseball would have to figure out a way to have most of the teams remain in contention until about 20 games remain, or about mid-September -- give or take a week -- to be comparable. The only way to do that is to expand the playoff pool and the purists would kill baseball over that.
The salary cap / revenue sharing isn't going to pull everyone close enough to .500 to do the trick.
I know the NFL has the advantage of the smaller # of games magnifying the impact of each game but seriously folks, it used to be in baseball that you wouldn't look to wave the "Wait 'til next season" flag until September -- unless you're the Cubs, then why wait? Get it out of the way by late-June or July and concentrate on B-BQ or something.
I don't know how some of these teams pull in fans late in the season after all hope is lost. The sales pitch "Come see our pretty new stadium" ie: "look at what we brought with your increased taxes: only goes so far. Right?
Maybe we have so long ridiculed authority in the family and discipline in education and decency in conduct and law in the state that the freedom we fought so hard for has brought us close to chaos. And it could be that our leaders no longer understand the relationship between themselves and the people they lead. - Vince Lombardi (1913 - 1970)
The danger to America is not Barack Obama, but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the Presidency. It will be far easier to limit and undo the follies of an Obama presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to a depraved electorate willing to have such a man for their president. The problem is much deeper and far more serious than Mr. Obama, who is a mere symptom of what ails America. Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The Republic can survive a Barack Obama... who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him their president. - Author unknown
It is in the nature of charisma that it rises out of thin air, out of need and distress, and then dissipates when the magic fails. The country has had its fill with a scapegoating that knows no end from a president who had vowed to break with recriminations and partisanship. The magic of 2008 can't be recreated, and good riddance to it. Slowly, the nation has recovered its poise.
There is a widespread sense of unstated embarrassment that a political majority, if only for a moment, fell for the promise of an untested redeemer—a belief alien to the temperament of this so practical and sober a nation. - Fouad Ajami
"You know, Americans of Hispanic descent, you know what the strongest issue there is? That is economic empowerment, upward mobility," Rubio said. "There’s only one economic system in the world that that’s possible in, time and again, and that’s the American free enterprise system."And the reason why Americans of Hispanic descent should be Republicans is because the Democratic leadership is trying to dismantle the American free enterprise system," he continued. "The point is he’s wrong.
Rubio Blasts Reid for Saying He Doesn't Understand How Hispanics Could Be Republican
Former Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chairman William (Bill) Isaac details the mistakes made leading up to and following the 2008 credit crisis in this book, but not from hindsight as other critics have. Rather, he does so from the perspective of a regulator who has navigated the banking industry through other significant crises, arguably on par or greater than what was facing us in 2008.
Isaac harshly criticizes those responsible for TARP, particularly Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. He correctly points out that our leaders panicked and used the panic the economic crisis created to jam their agendas through. One chapter is titled “Schizophrenic Failure Resolution” and details the ad hoc approach the Treasury took in handling the various brush fires that arose during the crisis. This led to more uncertainty just when our country needed our leaders to communicate that there was a consistent plan in place to handle the crisis. He makes a solid case against the “no other option” argument. In fact the four policy recommendations he made in lieu of TARP were all eventually executed, only after the $700 billion TARP legislation was passed.
He also points out the all too cozy relationship between policy makers and Wall Street, highlighting how some insiders apparently had more access to decision makers than their direct supervisors.
Isaac describes some of the specific problems that led to the crisis, mark to market accounting standards for one; and also the general recurring cause, a pro-cyclical approach to regulation. He points out our tendency to let our guard down in good times, loosening capital standards when the money is flowing and getting tough during difficult times just as the banks need a little help. The end result is we exacerbate both the bubbles, making them frothier, and the downturns, making them more painful.
“That America has transformed itself from a nation of earnest, muscular, upright citizens to a land of overfed barbarous morons ruled by grifters.”
“When this sucker goes down (to paraphrase a past president) it’s going to be like a fire in a circus tent. Don’t expect much from the clowns’ bucket brigade. We’ll be lucky if they don’t toss gasoline into the grandstands.” - James Kuntsler
CLASSY!! BUT IT'S THE TEA-PARTY DEMONSTRATIONS THAT ARE OUT OF CONTROL!!
Two events took place a few weeks back that have striking similarities IMO.
The Arizona Immigration Law and the Tasering of Fans at sports venues. While most people instinctively support law enforcement efforts to stop ILLGEAL TRESPASSERS with considerable force if necessary in the tasering of fans example. However, they reflexively cringe at Arizona's efforts to protect their citizens within the confines of their borders.
Other than the bogus racial profiling charge, I'm not sure I see where there is any difference.
Tea Party, Meet the Tequila Party – The Rule of Law vs. the Law of Rule
It is literally against the law to come to this country without following the rules, and has been for over a century now. My forefathers had to check in at Ellis Island, have a skill, a place to live, a plan for their lives here, they had to be free of disease or quarantined until they were safe, they had to be free of a criminal record, learn English, swear allegiance, know our history, and be an asset to the land, not a millstone around its neck.
We either have the Rule of Law or we have the Law of Rule, that is, he who rules makes whatever law he damned well wants to make. Our fore-fathers followed the laws and were happy to do so, for they knew there was security in creating a unified country whose members played by the same rules and were subject to the same laws. All we have now is splintered favoritism, and the only rule for being part of the favored groups is apparently how many laws you’re willing to rape.
Yet the current crop of illegals think it’s somehow different for them, that they shouldn’t have to follow the same rules that the ancestors of white Americans had to follow. They believe they should be exempt.
Most American voters think Arizona was right to pass its own immigration law, and think the Obama administration should wait and see how the new law works rather than try to stop it, according to a Fox News poll released Friday.
The new poll finds 61 percent of voters nationally think Arizona was right to take action instead of waiting for the federal government to do something on immigration. That's more than twice as many as the 27 percent who think securing the border is a federal responsibility and Arizona should have waited for Washington to act.
Next to inflation, majority rule is the most ingenious scheme ever contrived by government. Most people have never dared to question the basic morality or logic in the assumption that the majority should have power over the minority.
A majority of the people in the South once believed in black slavery. Did that make it moral? A lynch mob is majority rule stripped of its fancy trappings and its facade of respectability.
In a community where homosexuals outnumber heterosexuals, should the majority have the right to outlaw sex between married partners of the opposite sex?
In a community where atheists outnumber non- atheists, should the majority have the right to outlaw the practice of religion? ... a dictatorship allows only a small number of people to interfere with the rights of others, a democracy makes it possible for great numbers of people to impose their will on others -- through the force of government.
Is an act of aggression more right if carried out by the majority than by a dictator? Since approximately half the eligible voters vote this means that approximately 75% of the people are ruled by 25% of the people.
To provide insurance for the seemingly endless trips to the DL that Renteria and Sanchez make, the Giants acquired versatile IF Mike Fontenot from the visiting Cubs for Lo-A OF prospect Evan Crawford.
A good pick up here. Fontenot is not highly paid, can be productive for extended periods of time and can play all around the IF. He is a lefty bat with a career avg. line of (8-51-.269) with a .338 OBP and .757 OPS, a decidedly middle of the road player. He does strike out a bit much for a middle IF with a ~ 20% K-Rate.
Evan Crawford did not make a real impact on any prospect lists to date, hitting .255-4-29 in Lo-A Augusta this year. He has some speed (24 SB) but strikes out a lot (108K vs. 35 BB).
Again, as fits the pattern with the Giants, a deal that is putting spackling paste and paint over the holes punched in the roster wall due to the lack of durability of the highly paid signings that are Renteria, Sanchez, DeRosa, Rowand.
You have to think about it, don't you? Buster Posey and Evan Longoria in the same lineup?
And it could have EASILY been a reality, right? Rays sitting there with the 2008 #1 overall pick in the draft. With a crying need for solid answer at catcher. And right there in the same state, a legend in the making at FSU.
But for whatever reason, the Rays passed deciding instead to take prep SS Tim Beckham, who may eventually become a great player. And the rest is history. After the Pirates, Royals and Orioles also passed for various reasons on picking Posey.
I know the rumors were that Posey's salary demands would be a ridiculous $8 million. And that they had just paid David Price $5.6M the year before. But Posey ended up signing for a reported $6.2M and Beckham ended up signing for $6.15M. He almost has to hit big for them now. And he may, but this team could have been LOADED.
Anyway, this is for my friends down in St. Pete. It's supposed to ease the pain of thinking about what might have been. Or maybe, it's what little gloating I can do right now. Not sure.
Although, the Rays are doing pretty darn good on their own right now, one of the best managed teams in baseball. Except for this gaffe.
And it's a good excuse to get a great old tune posted on the blog for my wife, who loves John Lennon.
I changed the words a bit to make it more timely and relevant, but here it goes.
Imagine...Buster as a Ray ( to the tune of Imagine by John Lennon )
Imagine there's no Buster
It's easy if you try
No Posey here in 'Frisco
Rays could had him if they'd have tried
Imagine Buster in the Trop
Playing for the Rays
Imagine there's no budgets
Rays draft Posey #1
No reason to draft Tim Beckham
And the bonuses would be equal too
Imagine Buster and Evan
Together in St. Pete (ya ha, aaaahhh)
You may say that I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I know some days Rays fans join us
Thinking Posey coulda been a Ray
Imagine No John Jaso
Kick Navarro in the can
No need for Kelly Shoppach
Buster Posey coulda been your man
Imagine Buster and Evan
Together In St Pete (yo hoo, eewww)
You may say that I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I know some days Rays fans join us
Thinking Posey coulda been a Ray
And it's St. Pete, ESPN. Not Tampa / St. Petersburg. Not Tampa. Not Tampa Bay.
Also in the Imagine category is imagine that my pre-season prediction for a Rays v. Giants World Series is still in serious play at this late juncture of the season.
NOW THAT'S AWESOME!!
Here's the better version of Imagine by John Lennon
America needs to be a place where all of us can feel a part of the American dream. But it will not happen by dividing us into racial groups. It will not happen by trying to turn the poor against the rich. It will not happen by asking Americans to accept what is immoral and wrong in the name of tolerance. - J.C. Watts
A society that puts equality before freedom will get neither. A society that puts freedom before equality will get a high degree of both. - Milton Friedman
This week, aside from Sheriff Joe Biden telling us that the stimulus worked, we get this garbage in, garbage out from economists Mark Zandi and Fed apologist Alan Blinder, titled "How We Ended the Great Recession".
So this is what we get from our government, two economists who predicted the stimulus would be hugely beneficial, conduct a study that concludes that the stimulus was hugely beneficial. HOW STUNNINGLY INEPT.
DEFINITION OF CONFIRMATION BIAS: Confirmation bias (or myside bias) is a tendency for people to prefer information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses, independently of whether they are true.
Buried in the minutiae of the study is the admission that what the Federal Reserve did actually had more impact than our tax dollars.
Also, the authors compare the "success" against a set of alternatives that suggest that the administration and the Federal Reserve just "do nothing" in response to the collapse of the financial system and the economy.
SERIOUSLY?!? Is that the standard we are looking for? Is that where the bar is set? IT WAS BETTER THAN DOING NOTHING?? That's even worse than, "close enough for government work".
The larger problem the "useful tools" in the administration have is that the facts (economic data) keep flying in their faces. My Dad used to say "don't let the facts get in the way of a good story". This is often described as "anchoring" instead of the term confirmation bias. I just hope that they don't pull the whole economy down again by remaining "anchored" to what appear to be failed policy choices.
This is a pretty accurate synopsis of the situation from back in January 2010. Zandi was a goofball then, he's more of one now.
The Obama administration has explained the dire employment situation thusly:
The economy was way worse than anybody thought
Their predictions were in line with other economists
Things would have been worse without the stimulus
All in all, a nice deflection of blame from themselves (and usually on to the preceding administration). But history isn’t so kind.
You see, back around the time that the Obama team put forth their errant predictions, a fellow named Mark Zandi (Moody’s Economy) made a similar set of predictions using an actual economic model. And here’s how he did:
Yes, your eyes do not deceive you – the unemployment rate is closely tracking Zandi’s predictions for the non-stimulus case. This leads me to the following conclusions (which are somewhat at odds with the administration’s spin):
The economy was exactly as bad as some economists thought
The Obama team’s predictions were much more optimistic than other economists’
The stimulus has had no effect
You can believe the spin or the facts you see/feel for yourself.
My conclusions would echo those of one of the commentators to the story and flow from the wisdom of Milton Fridman:
“I think the government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem and very often makes the problem worse.”
“One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.”
The discrepancy may be explained by either the economy being in worse shape than economists thought at the outset (the Obama excuse, even though we were told this was the worst thing since the Great Depression). In this case the model of the economy without stimulus is wrong.
Alternatively, the discrepancy can be explained by the fact that the model generating the effects of stimulus is wrong. The GIGO argument. Either argument can be made and supported by facts and figures, ultimately we have elections that decide who is right and who is wrong.
We heard the mantra that these stimulus funds would go to "shovel-ready" projects that would have a near immediate effect on jobs and the economy. That has proven to be false at worst or understated at best.
The problem IMO was that the anticipated stimulus multiplier effect was muted or strangled by the harsh anti-business rhetoric and punitive regulatory euphoria that has created a climate where in effect CAPITAL IS ON STRIKE.
Why would a businessman hire, invest and strive for climate in an environment where the costs to hire are increasing, the incentive to invest is disappearing and the profits, if any, generated from investing and hiring are going to be demonized as ill-gotten gains or confiscated by an angry, greedy business partner by the name of Uncle Sam, who is motivated to "level the playing field" and will take your profits to aid those of your less competent competitor. (See GM, Chrysler, Ford)
Put that in your model and smoke it, Zandi!!
It is interesting to see that the political contributions of businessmen and women appear to be heading in a different pocket lately. And Team Obama has taken notice. Also, interesting now that the Obama team, which benefited greatly from contributions from these same businesses to get elected, now criticizes these same businesses for appearing to have buyers remorse. Isn't that their right, sir? To change their mind?
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MORE GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT THAT EMENATES FROM THOSE ENTRUSTED WITH YOUR TAX DOLLARS:
CBO Admits It Ignored the Economy’s Actual Performance
Published on March 23, 2010 by Brian Riedl
1) RESULTS PRE-DETERMINED? THAT'S NOT TOO FRAUDULENT OR SELF-SERVING - NICE PR JOB
CBO Confirms Its Methodology
In a recent speech to the National Association of Business Economics, CBO Director Doug Elmendorf confirmed this by stating:
[W]e don't think one can learn much from watching the evolution of particular components of GDP [gross domestic product] over the last few quarters about the effects of the stimulus … so we fall back on repeating the sort of analysis we did before. And we tried to be very explicit about it that it is essentially repeating the same exercise we did rather than an independent check on it.[1]
When asked if this means that any actual underperformance of the stimulus would fail to show up in the CBO's stimulus jobs count, Elmendorf replied "That's right." This means the 1.5 million jobs saved estimate was pre-determined.
Of course, the stimulus was originally promised to create (not just save) more than 3 million jobs.[2] Instead, the economy has since lost more than 3 million additional net jobs. The abject failure of the stimulus policies recommended by Keynesian economic models should induce some fundamental re-analysis of these models' assumptions. Instead, the CBO is re-releasing the same jobs analysis--with the same economic assumptions--that they had used a year ago.
2. GIGO - GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT - WHAT IF THE UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS ARE WRONG?
The "Begging the Question" Fallacy
The CBO's conclusion that the stimulus created jobs is based on an economic model that began with the premise that all stimulus bills create jobs. In other words, the conclusion is already assumed as a premise. Logicians call this the fallacy of begging the question. Mathematicians call it assuming what you are trying to prove.
More specifically, the CBO's model started by automatically assuming that government spending increases GDP by pre-set multipliers, such as:
Every $1 of government spending that directly purchases goods and services ultimately raises the
GDP by $1.75;
Every $1 of government spending sent to state and local governments for infrastructure ultimately raises GDP by $1.75;
Every $1 of government spending sent to state and local governments for non-infrastructure spending ultimately raises GDP by $1.25; and
Every $1 of government spending sent to an individual as a transfer payment ultimately raises GDP by $1.45.[3]
(Note that all CBO figures in this paper represent the midpoint between their high and low estimates.)
Then the CBO plugged the stimulus provisions into the multipliers above, came up with a total increase in GDP of 2.6 percent, and then converted that additional GDP into 1.5 million jobs.
The problem here is obvious. Once the CBO decided to assume that every dollar of government spending increased GDP by the multipliers above, its conclusion that the stimulus saved jobs was pre-ordained.
The economy could have lost 30 million jobs, and the model would have said that the economy would otherwise have lost 31.5 million jobs without the stimulus. An asteroid could have hit the United States, wiping out everyone outside of Washington, D.C., and (as long as Washington still spent the stimulus money) the CBO's economic model would have produced the same stimulus jobs data. There is no adjustment made to reflect what actually happened in the economy after the stimulus was enacted.
3. CONFIRMATION BIAS, ANCHORING - CALL IT WHAT YOU WILL - MOST PEOPLE FEEL LIKE IT'S JUST PLAIN OLD FASHIONED B.S.
Test the Multipliers
The debate over the efficacy of Keynesian stimulus is essentially a debate over the correct multipliers. Some believe the multipliers are high[4]; others believe they are as low as zero[5] (or even negative). Testing the stimulus requires testing the multipliers. Yet by simply assuming large multipliers, the CBO effectively pre-ordained its conclusion that the stimulus worked regardless of what actually happened in the economy.
Elmendorf has confirmed that the CBO's stimulus analysis consists of little more than re-releasing its pre-stimulus projections. Policymakers and analysts should not mistake this analysis for an actual examination of the stimulus's impact.
And this is why the people they call the Tea Party are gaining in numbers, not because they are racists, not because they do not want top see our President and therefore our country succeed. But because they see and feel these things that are going horribly wrong and they have had enough.
This hit my e-mail last week from James Quinn who publishes the blog The Burning Platform http://theburningplatform.com/
The Burning Platform has posted a new item, 'NAACP - MOST RACIST ORGANIZATION IN AMERICA'
Again, I would like to reiterate that the NAACP, backed up by the hate spewing liberal media pundits on MSNBC and CNN, are just mouthpieces for the Obama agenda. Obama despises white people. Whenever his policies fail and the country is clearly headed downward, he will pull the race card. It is the liberal gameplan. They expect us white people to back down like we have for decades. No more. The Tea Party is about fiscal responsibility. The racists are in the NAACP and the Obama White House. Funny that black men like Thomas Sowell and Deroy Murdock aren’t invited on MSNBC to put Olbermann, Madow, and Matthews in their place. The liberal agenda is hate, racism and division.
Liberals fear the Tea Party. They should. We’re coming to get them.
He defends the Tea Party by noting that
"Consider the Tea Party’s Contract from America, a pledge to which it holds its endorsed candidates. (TheContract.org.)
Among 10 planks, it advocates a single-rate tax, a two-thirds-vote requirement for tax hikes,
ObamaCare’s repeal, and the defeat of cap-and-trade legislation.
Nothing is even remotely related to race, ethnicity or identity. Wouldn’t bigots devote at least one of 10 reforms to something racial?
The Tea Party movement avoids racial issues and instead advances lower taxes and spending and greater fiscal discipline. These issues are neither black nor white. They are green."
This is what I've been saying about the Tea Party all along.
If you really want to get a gander at a wholly racist organization, look no further than the Black Congressional Caucus, whose members basically started this "Tea Party is racist" nonsense.
The Congressional Black Caucus is an organization representing the black members of the United States Congress. Membership is exclusive to blacks,[1]
I have to agree with J.C. Watts here as well.
Watts said of his refusal to join the caucus, "...they said that I had sold out and Uncle Tom. And I said well, they deserve to have that view. But I have my thoughts. And I think they're race-hustling poverty pimps."
White members of Congress have never been welcomed into the caucus, although CBC by-laws specifically prohibit any discrimination.
And then there was the infamous Ralph Nader incident.
Sorry, in terms of level of overt racism compare and contrast the overly trumped up version of the congressman walking the gauntlet of Tea Partiers, up the Capitol steps to sign the Health Care bill with this incident.
Oh, you never heard about this incident, or the Sharpton / Brawley smear of NYPD officers. No surprise there.
Ralph Nader incident
In 2004, independent presidential candidate and consumer activist Ralph Nader attended a meeting with the Caucus which turned into a shouting exchange. The caucus urged Nader to give up his presidential run, fearing that it could hurt John Kerry, the Democratic Party's nominee. Representative Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) called the upcoming election "a life or death matter" for the Caucus members' constituents. Nader accused Congressman Mel Watt of twice uttering an "obscene racial epithet" towards Nader; he alleged that Watt said: "You're just another arrogant white man – telling us what we can do – it's all about your ego – another f—king arrogant white
man." Watt never offered an apology.[9]
Nader wrote to the Caucus afterwards:
"Instead, exclamations at the meeting... end[ed] with the obscene racist epithet repeated twice by Yale Law School alumnus Congressman Melvin Watt of North Carolina. One member of your Caucus called to apologize for the crudity of some of the members. I had expected an expression of regret or apology from Congressman Watt in the subsequent days after he had cooled down. After all there was absolutely no vocal or verbal provocation from me or from my associates, including Peter Miguel Camejo, to warrant such an outburst. In all my years of struggling for justice, especially for the deprived and downtrodden, has any legislator—white or black—used such language? I do not like double standards, especially since our premise for interactions must be equality of respect that has no room, as I responded to Mr. Watt, for playing the race card. Therefore, just as African-Americans demanded an apology from Agriculture Secretary Earl Butz and Senator Trent Lott—prior to their resignation and demotion respectively—for their racist remarks, I expect that you and others in the Caucus will exert your moral persuasion and request an apology from Congressman Watt. Please consider this also my request for such an expression—a copy of which is being forwarded directly to Mr. Watt's office."[10]
So all these factors contribute to the rise of the Tea Party movement. Not racism. Not black /white issues, green issues ($$$). These folks have sat back were not involved as much in politics as they maybe should have been. They allowed the discontented to drive the agenda. Well, good job losers, you've pushed the economic and political climate to the point where now successful and otherwise happy, contented people are pissed off. GOOD JOB, ASS-HATS.
They have put up with the entitlement culture, the ever increasing social safety net and the social justice programs grow way out of control. When times were good they really didn't pay too much attention to what was going on. Politics is always about "greasing the squeaky wheel" and these are folks that didn't have much to complain about. Now they do.
These are people that when times are good are the epitome of good, decent, caring, charitable people. But their patience and kindness and generosity does have it's limits -- it's breaking point -- and we are rapidly reaching that point in this environment.
SEE YOU IN NOVEMBER!!!
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The other success that was touted this past week was the so-called Financial Regulatory Reform bill that was passed. Another gift form out leaders. I'll leave it to a well-respected bank analyst, Rochdale Securites Dick Bove, to give his take on the bill. It's right on the money.
How Wall Street Will Beat the New Financial Regulations - Yahoo! Finance
"What the law did was force the banks to rethink their business lines, their pricing strategies, their methodology for maintaining their balance sheet," banking analyst Dick Bove of Rochdale Securities said in an interview. "When they rethink it all, they will be able to offset all of the costs of this bill."
But crafty financial veterans already are finding loopholes in the law and banks likely will profit both in spite of and because of the reforms.
"If you had anyone who knew anything about the financial industry writing this law, that's one thing," said Bove, who has called the law one of the worst in US history. "But if you have a bunch of hysterics who were looking for political gain, you get something that was an abortion. All it did was increase the cost of banking in the United States relative to the cost of banking in other countries."
The banks' course of action likely will break down into four strategies:
1. Outfox the foxes
A harsh critic of the law, Bove is among the analysts who nevertheless believe banks will thrive. One big reason is because he thinks industry executives will show that they're smarter than the legislators who crafted financial reform, also known as FinReg.
Once again, thanks for nothing guys.
GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT.
Speaking of garbage, this is the prevailing opinion of the current administration, that the people of this country are too stupid to understand that all the data that confirms what people are feeling everyday is wrong and they are right. That is the problem, people are too stupid.
I really hope that we remember to add ALL incumbents to the unemployment lines this November. There isn't one of them that deserves to be re-elected.
They need to be defeated and I use that term in lieu of they need to be beaten, Mussolini-style.
The Italians didn't mess around when a politician preached false hope and fanciful dreams and then failed miserably to deliver (the trains did run on time, though). Maybe a little history repeating around here would do some of our congressmen and women, well. HAHAHAHHA.
FROM ANDREWCOSSACK.COM - MUSSOLINI'S FALL FROM GRACE:
After a summary execution, Mussolini’s corpse, along with those of his mistress and others, were dragged through the streets of Milan before being strung up at a gas station. Il Duce had previously expounded upon the idea:
“Every man dies the death which befits his character.”
KEEP THAT IN MIND, MY D.C. HOMIES AND REMEMBER WE'VE GOT OUR EYE ON YOU.
Now we go from the July 31st trading deadline watch to the August 31st waiver deadline watch. Some interesting names could end up on the wire. Recent attention has focused on Adam Dunn and the Giants have been mentioned on the short list of teams that may have interest. The Rockies may employ the old "Charlie Weaver to block" strategy and he stays with the Nats.
FOR THOSE OF US OLD ENOUGH: CLASSIC CHARLIE WEAVER-ISMS AT THE END OF THE POST.
The waiver process is interesting. Teams can place a player on waivers and other teams have a chance to claim that players. First priority goes to teams in the same league, in reverse order of record. Then the other leagues teams get a shot, again in reverse order of record. A players stays on waivers for 48 hours and if multiple teams submit claims, the award goes to the team that meets the order of priority conditions. Teams with the worst record in the same league would win the claim, if there are no same league claims, he's awarded to the team with the worst record in the other league.
Teams use this to assess late-season interest in a player for a possible deal. Since the waiving team is limited to bargain exclusively with the claiming team, the price is generally lower. Many times players are dealt for the ever popular PTBNL or Player to be Named Later. This is generally done because the player the other team wants will not clear waivers or otherwise restricted in some manner.
If nobody claims the player, he can be pulled back or released. If he's claimed, the team can still pull him back and work out a trade with the claiming team. If no deal is consummated he can be pulled back and kept by the original team.
The risk to the claiming team is that other team can release a large-salaried player (salary dump) to the claiming team and get nothing back in return. The "addition by subtraction strategy".
Given those parameters, in addition to bats like Adam Dunn or Toronto's Jose Bautista, there are some players the Giants could pick up that would help in a playoff drive.
Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman recently published his list of players most likely to hit the wire and a quick scan includes some interesting names.
Barry Zito was one such name. Heyman cites another executive as saying the Giants would not deal any of their starters (good move) "unless they were lucky enough for someone to take Zito."
ZITO FOR WELLS? BOTH SIGNED 7 YR/ $126M ALBATROSS DEALS??? HMMMM....
Wells is due to make $10.5M more than Zito from 2011-2014 according the USA Today. He might be able to hold down CF until 1st rounder Gary Brown develops, then maybe move him to one of the corner spots that need a power bat.
WOW!! Wouldn't that be the Greater Fool Theory on steroids?
The greater fool theory (sometimes the bigger fool theory, also called survivor investing) is the belief held by one who makes a questionable investment, with the assumption that they will be able to sell it later to "a bigger fool"; in other words, buying something not because you believe that it is worth the price, but rather because you believe that you will be able to sell it to someone else for an even better price.[1]
Perhaps it would, but the Heyman list is littered by the foolish maneuvers of other MLB executives. Maybe it's comforting to occasionally see that there are other GM's in the league making similar bad moves that hamstring their organizations.
Carlos Zambrano is on the list. And he appears to be in need of a change of scenery. You could get a potential top of the rotation pitcher for Zito in a near swap of bad salaries. Zambrano would have to be on his best behavior for this to pan out, but who knows?
Aramis Ramirez would be a decent middle of the order pick up, but unfortunately we can't DH him and do not have a need at 3B or 1B.
Cubs OF Kosuke Fukudome is also on the list, so maybe Cubs GM Jim Hendry is actually the dumbest GM in baseball. I don't feel so bad now.
The Blue Jays CF Vernon Wells could be an intriguing match. He looks like he's coming back to his prior form, albeit not all the way back to the form that allowed him to command a $20+M salary for the next three years. But the G-men are in similar trouble with Zito's deal which makes this an intriguing deal. You're giving up pitching for hitting, but management must feel they can overcome the loss of Zito as an innings eater--if no longer an ace-- which is the sentiment that comes through if the unnamed team executive quotes are given any credence.
The only other names that caught my eye were Brewers RHP David Bush and the Indians 1B Travis Haffner. Haffner would put the Giants in a similar position as A-Ram, a man without a regular position with the Giants. I know Haffner's productivity has plummeted recently but I still have the image of him taking a FB from Mark Buerhle, I think, right in the face and he just picked it up and flipped it back. AWESOME.
Charley Weaver had the distinction of being the only one of the show's permanent regulars...to be, in fact a character. He was played by Cliff Arquette, the unlikely patriarch of an acting family. (He's the father of Lewis and--believe it or not--grandfather of Rosanna, Patricia and David.) But this was a character that linked the Squares to television's earliest days. Arquette played his Charley Weaver character as a regular on The Dennis Day Show, The Tonight Show (during the Jack Paar years), and the 1962 incarnation of The Roy Rogers/Dale Evans Show. He also popped up in that character in guest shots on shows ranging from Dragnet to The Andy Williams Show. If the Squares were a party, Charley would be the grandfather your parents left to watch after you...then when they left, he might get a couple of drinks in him and tell you every dirty joke he's ever heard.
Arquette was born in Toledo, Ohio in December 1905, but it's the town of Mount Ida, Arkansas that owes its place in American culture to him. That's because his Weaver character developed as a man who was always reading letters from his "Mount Idy Mama." Arquette later said he was inspired by a friend of his mother, who wrote letters from Mount Idy which were read to the whole family. So he often read those in character to Jack Paar or Dennis Day. Arquette also appeared in numerous old-time radio programs, including Fibber McGee & Molly, Lum and Abner and Point Sublime, a 1946 small-town comedy that co-starred Mel Blanc. As "Charley Weaver," Arquette starred in Dave and Charley (1952) as well as a 1955 NBC summer show called Do It Yourself, a combination comedy/how to program that looks like an early forerunner to the fictitious "Tool Time with Tim Taylor" on Home Improvement.
During his later years Arquette, a Civil War buff, owned a Civil War museum in Gettysburg. He also lent his character's name and face to endorsements of garden tools and charcoal briquettes.
Weaver/Arquette was on The Hollywood Squares when it debuted on NBC in October 1966. Except for a nine-month leave of absence in 1973, he stayed on the show until his death in September 1974.
But they haven't entirely forgotten him in Mount Ida, where they still hold a yearly celebration that, until 2000, was called"Charley Weaver Day."
Peter Marshall: Which of your five senses tends to diminish as you get older?
Charley Weaver: My sense of decency.
Peter Marshall: Charley, you've just decided to grow strawberries. Are you going to get any during your first year?
Weaver: Of course not, Peter. I'm too busy growing strawberries!
Peter Marshall: According to a recent article in the Miami Herald, at age 78, is Groucho Marx still interested in sex?
Charley Weaver: Yes, but he's forgotten the secret word.
Peter Marshall: Charley, an 87-year-old doctor named Quick invented something that's named for him. What is it?
Charley Weaver: 87 years old? I'd say the quickie!
Peter Marshall: Charley, true or false: every time you sneeze, your heart stops.
Charley Weaver: Out to the home, there's a few people that, whenever they sneeze, their hearts stop!
Peter Marshall: According to Billy Graham, can you get anything you've always wanted in Heaven, if you didn't get it on Earth?
Charley Weaver: Yes, but there's an extra charge for the whitewalls.
Peter Marshall: Is there a weight limit for bags on airline flights in this country?
Charley Weaver: If she can fit under the seat, she can fly.
Peter Marshall: According to Today's Health, what do most dentists say you should do with your dentures before going to bed?
Charley Weaver: Out to the home, we throw them all into the center of the room and have a swap party...
Peter Marshall: According to Ann Landers, is their anything wrong with getting into the habit of kissing a lot of people?
Charley Weaver: It got me out of the army!
Peter Marshall: Charley, what do you call a pig that weighs more than 150 pounds?
Charley Weaver: A divorcee.
Peter Marshall: Charles, how many balls would you expect to find on a billiard table?
Charley Weaver: How many guys are playing? (Weaver and audience laughing) Now you're doing it, that's more like it.
Peter Marshall: What famous story begins with the discovery of magic beans?
Charley Weaver: Inherit the Wind.
Peter Marshall: True or false -- when the swallows return to Capistrano, they are probably coming from Argentina.
Charley Weaver: That's true, and not only did they ruin my car, they blew up my trailer!
Peter Marshall: Does Pat Nixon think her husband is fun?
Charley Weaver: Yes, she says he's full of it.
Peter Marshall: Do rosey cheeks always mean good health?
Charley Weaver: Not if you're sitting on a radiator!
Peter Marshall: In a recent TV Guide interview, Paul Lynde said that he has been cursed with something all his life. What?
Charley Weaver: Four letter words! (correct answer: shyness)
Peter Marshall: Was there anything going on between Christopher Columbus and Queen Isabella?
Charley Weaver: Yes, and Columbus later found out that the world was round and she was flat!
Peter Marshall: Shakespeare wrote 154 of them. What are they?
Charley Weaver: Checks to Rose Marie for services rendered.
Peter Marshall: What makes water hard?
Charley Weaver: Winter.
Peter Marshall: You are a senior citizen and during the night while you are asleep, your heart beats 50 times per minute. Is there something wrong with you?
Charley Weaver: Well, let's put it this way. Could you ask me Friday's questions today?
Peter Marshall: True or false -- rumors circulate in business offices more than any place else.
Charley Weaver: That's false, Peter, and we're certainly going to miss you around here!
Peter Marshall: True or false -- drinking can make you hard of hearing.
Charley Weaver: What?
Peter Marshall: Is it possible for you to make a dog laugh?
Charley Weaver: Well, I tried to housebreak a dog once and he just laughed and laughed.
Peter Marshall: When you go shopping, is there any difference between irregulars and seconds?
Charley Weaver: Out at the home, when I have seconds I get irregular.
Peter Marshall: True or false -- as you get older, your skin becomes more transparent.
Charley Weaver: Out at the home in the x-ray room, they just hold us up to a light bulb.
Peter Marshall: True or false -- Lawrence Welk has a fourth grade education.
Charley Weaver: That's why he says, "And a one and a two..."
(at the end of a show, when Peter Marshall is plugging various appearances by the other stars)
Charley Weaver: ...And I will be appearing in Wasserman, Ohio, with my trained pet hamster!
Peter Marshall: Every night before he went to bed, George Washington would always put his false teeth into something. What?
Charley Weaver: Martha!
Peter Marshall: According to the nursery rhyme, "There was an old woman who lived in a shoe. She had so many children she didn't know what to do". What did she give her children to eat?
Charley Weaver: She lived in a shoe? Filet of sole!
Peter Marshall: Tommy Smothers and President George Washington share a common outstanding physical trait that's very noticeable and unique. What is it?
Charley Weaver: They both have wooden teeth.
Peter Marshall: In the movie "Camelot", Sir Lancelot is called on to perform a miracle. What is the miracle?
Charley Weaver: The miracle is to make the movie a hit.
Peter Marshall: Arthur Hailey had a very successful movie and novel called "Hotel". He has a new best seller about another stopover point. What is it called?
Charley Weaver: Service Station.
Peter Marshall: Which is higher, a vice admiral or a rear admiral?
Charley Weaver: That depends on who drinks the most.
Peter Marshall: Who said, "Richard Nixon was the most difficult man I ever had
to paint"?
Charlie Weaver: Earl Scheib.
----
HARD TO BELIEVE BUT SOME OF THESE DID NOT MAKE THE CUT IN 1971
Any way you look at this, it is deeply disturbing. Whether there are guys umpiring because of economic motivations or personal gratification, this keeps people from devoting their time to the craft of umpiring. If you do it primarily for the money, they don't pay enough to have your face smashed in over a perceived "bad call". If you are doing it purely for "the love of the game", well it goes without saying what a punch in the face will do for your enjoyment.
In a sense, it perpetuates the downward spiral that goes to the root of the problem as perceived by the criminals, i.e. "bad umpiring". What self-respecting, competent professional would want to work with / for scumbags like this coach? So the "good" umpires leave and these idiot coaches are left with those that remain. But I suppose logical thinking is not a hallmark of these idiots.
It just boggles my mind that folks will get so worked up over a call that they will react in this way. A CRIMINAL WAY!!
A Vallejo Babe Ruth coach will not be rejoining the league after an incident in which the man is alleged to have knocked out a state tournament umpire Sunday afternoon, the league's vice president said Monday.
Vallejo, host of this year's Northern California 13- to 15-Year-Old State Babe Ruth Tournament, was playing against Sonoma with a one-run lead on Sunday when "tempers started to flair," one witness said.
Following a call in favor of Sonoma in the seventh inning, the Vallejo team's coach reportedly approached the first-base umpire. The coach, said the grandmother of one Sonoma players, had already received a warning earlier in the game. Then the umpire said "you're out of here" to the coach, she added.
"The coach blind-sided the umpire," said the grandmother, who asked to have her name withheld for fear of retaliation. "He went out like a piece of cardboard. Then his legs started vibrating. ... it appeared that he couldn't get up for 10 minutes." Griffin declined to identity the coach. She said the team's players are suffering from the automatic game forfeiture. The grandmother said the forfeiture was a shame, because Sonoma players "didn't come away feeling like winners."
"Vallejo was in it and had a good chance of winning it ... and now, they're out of it," she said. "This was highly unusual. We were all shocked. It was just so strong in our minds and so unacceptable and unbelievable at that kind of event."
Ramon Ramirez and Javier Lopez give the Giants two experienced relievers. (Getty/AP)
I can't criticize these moves too much, if at all. They fill a definitive need, they came at a relatively low cost and the bat they may be looking for could become available from the waiver wire sometime in the near future. After the Saturday trade deadline, players must pass through waivers in order to be traded.
OF John Bowker leaves in the deal for LHP Javier Lopez. He goes from AAAA prospect to a AAAA team in the Pirates. He became spare parts after losing the battle with Schierholtz for rhe RF position this spring. Perhaps Bowker can become the hitter many still predict he can be in the less than bright lights of Pittsburgh. RHP Joe Martinez also leaves in the deal and he too may blossom with the opportunity to log regular innings in Pittsburgh. There just was not a regular spot in the rotation here in SF for Martinez. His upside seems to be a solid bottom of the rotation starter, not dominating, but keeps the ball in the yard and competes.
Roughly the same can be said for RHP Dan Turpen who leaves for Boston in exchange for RHP Ramon Martinez. Turpen is a big 6-4,215 RHP who pitches to contact somewhat and keeps the ball in play (a career 1.26 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.2 HR/9, 2.48 K/BB entering this season). A middle of the rotation starter or long reliever perhaps for the BoSox.
The Giants get a RHP and LHP to fill middle innings relief which is an underrated role in todays game. So many games are lost or won when a starter leaves earlier than expected but the game remains in play. Teams that convert those games into W's manage to stay in contention.
The Dodgers loaded up on talent for a late season push adding LHP Ted Lilly and SS Ryan Theriot from the Cubs and later RHP Ocatavio Dotel for bullpen help. Cubs fans will not be happy about the return from this deal, they expected more of a ransom for Lilly and Theriot was very popular if somewhat unproductive of late.
The Padres added a significant bat in OF Ryan Ludwick from the Cardinals as well as 3B Miguel Tejada. They helped their offense significantly.
With the moves the Giants made, I would like to see them match the Padres Ludwick / Tejada moves with a veteran bat. The Dodgers moves I don't think are enough to make up the seven games they need, but there are two long months ahead. Lilly will be a plus for them, Dotel is a plug for a leaky bullpen of late and Theriot is a wash for giving up IF Blake DeWitt to the Cubs.
FROM SFGIANTS.COM
GIANTS ACQUIRE JAVIER LOPEZ AND RAMON RAMIREZ
In two moves design to strengthen their bullpen, the Giants on Saturday acquired left-handed pitcher Javier Lopez from the Pittsburgh Pirates and right-handed pitcher Ramon Ramirez from the Boston Red Sox. The Giants sent pitcher Joe Martinez and outfielder John Bowker to the Pirates, and sent pitcher Daniel Turpen to the Red Sox.
Lopez, 33, has gone 2-2 with a 2.79 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 50 games for the Pirates this year, performing particularly well against left-handed hitters, having held them to a .204 batting avg. against. Throughout his career, he has held lefties to a .243 batting avg. against.
Ramirez, 28, has gone 0-3 with a 4.46 ERA in 44 relief appearances with the Red Sox this season. Since the All-Star beak, Ramirez has appeared in seven games, tossing 6.2 innings with seven strikeouts and has held opponents to a .190 avg. against. Ramirez has been particularly tough on right-handed hitters throughout his career, fashioning a .210 avg. against.
As the trade deadline nears, it appears the Giants may stand pat and wait for the players on the DL to aid the pennant push in August / Septemeber.
Of the pitchers, none of the top tier names available should be of interest. So, that leave the Giants out of the running for Roy Oswalt, Joakim Soria, Matt Capps, Kevin Gregg, et. al..
Of the big time power bats, I would rather see a run made at Prince Fielder rather than Adam Dunn and only if the cost is more along the lines of Sanchez OR Bumgarner rather than Sanchez AND Bumgarner. I'm not sure the Gigantes have a bat of interest to other teams among their prospects. A premier player like Dunn or Fielder generally goes for two if not three premier prospects. Or one major leaguer plus two prospects.
Of the second tier bats I think I would prefer the Giants make a run at Jayson Werth over Corey Hart and / or either one of the second baseman from Dan Uggla or Jorge Cantu. The Giants have been mentioned from time to time in trade talkes for most if not all of the aforementioned names.
1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.
2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects
1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.
2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects
1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.
