2011 MLB Predictions (II)

The 2011 predictions enter the second half of the season in pretty good shape so far.

http://slavieboy.blogspot.com/2011/03/2011-mlb-predictions.html

In the AL East, we run the table 1-5 so far. There are three contenders (Bos - NYY - TB) for two playoff spots. Toronto has to make a run NOW and Baltimore is on pace to lose 100.

In the AL Central, our projected champion Twinkies have been hurt but have to make a run NOW. The Royals may indeed lose 100 games as projected. The Indians are a big-time upside surprise, the Tigers to a lesser degree and the ChiSox are about as expected. Three teams battling it out for the one playoff spot.

In the AL West, we missed on Sea - Oak 3-4 but that could right itself. Texas and the LA Angels battle for the on playoff spot, Seattle has to make a run NOW to get back in it and Oakland may lose 100.

So basically, eight teams in serious contention, three more that could get back into it and three that are toast.

In the NL East, Phillies and Braves 1-2 as expected. Both will make the playoffs. The Mets are a bit of a surprise so far in the three spot, but waving the white flag by dealing K-Rod to the Brew-crew will not help on the field or on the back pages in New York. Washington and Florida will have to make a run NOW or resign to lose 100 games.

In the NL Central, the Brewers make a statement by acquiring K-Rod. Pittsburgh is still a major surprise to the upside. They may need to make a deal by the deadline to show the players they think they can win. St. Louis and Cincinnati are still in contention. The Cubs may lose 100 and the Astros may lose 110.

In the NL West, all playing to form except the DBacks surprising to the upside. If the Rockies are within 10 games with more than a month to go, they are still in contention. The Dodgers and Padres appear to be mailing it in and may both lose 100.

So for the NL, eight serious contenders, three that have to make a run soon, and four that are playing for next year (soon to be made five by the Mutts)

Of my predicted playoff teams, the Twins and Rockies are in some distress but not panic, YET.

The projected Giants - Red Sox World Series remains in play. The Giants may need to add a bat...and a catcher....and a SS....to finish the deal, which means Sabean making deals, which means trouble. Hopefully, he doesn't use defense of the title as a mandate to mortgage the future.

Best chances to win the World Series as of today:

AL
Red Sox
Yankees
Rangers
AL Central Champ = playoff cannon fodder

NL
Phillies
Giants
Braves
Brewers - Cards - Reds
NL Central champ = playoff cannon fodder (for now)

Beaning Roger Clemens - July 14, 2011 - The New York Sun

These guys may have just decided to take a knee on this one. Prosecutors track record on the issue is not very good. Maybe they just took a dive. We've heard of jury nullification courtesy of the O.J. trial, this may be a form of late-stage "prosecutorial nullification" or indifference. They just don't feel like they have a winnable case. This is not the court of public opinion where any idiot with a column can chime in with an opinion that passes as evidence. There are actually rules of procedure that both sides must adhere to. Much easier to convict in the court of public opinion.

The reason I think the prosecutors "took a dive" comes from the judges own words when he declared the mistrial -- the judge said the prosecutors committed missteps that "a first-year law student" would have avoided.

Beaning Roger Clemens - July 14, 2011 - The New York Sun:

"By our lights, this whole question has been so tainted in our eyes by the behavior of Congress that the right thing is to just drop it altogether now. Our sentiments are with the celebrated baseball columnist of the Sun, Tim Marchman, who told us this afternoon in respect of Mr. Clemens: “He probably juiced, he probably lied, and he’s probably the greatest pitcher who ever lived. It would be nice if it there were an easy way to separate those things from one another, but there isn’t, and anyway it’s a job for baseball historians, not prosecutors.”"

Book review of Jury Nullification: The Evolution of a Doctrine.
By Clay S. Conrad.
Reviewed by Glenn Reynolds

http://instapundit.com/lawrev/conradrv.htm

Every day, in courtrooms around the nation, cases like this end with the defendants being placed on probation, sent into diversion programs, or - perhaps most commonly - not prosecuted at all. At every stage up to the trial, state actors have discretion to drop prosecution, reduce the charges, or approve probation or diversion. That discretion is almost entirely unreviewable. It is also almost entirely without remark or inquiry.

...The prosecutor and judge, however, apparently felt that justice would not be served by sending the son of a local business leader - even one with prior offenses on his record - off to jail. Yet strangely enough, the notion that a jury might have discretion to make the same kind of judgment appears shocking, even un-American, to many. Jurors are unaccountable, after all (though prosecutors and judges are not especially accountable either, and are also shielded by absolute immunity).

Historically, this trust of prosecutors and judges over jurors is a relatively recent innovation, and it may not be entirely merited. Despite all the famous cases of alleged juror nullification, it is "prosecutorial nullification" - more commonly known as "prosecutorial discretion" - that plays the greatest part in keeping malefactors out of jail. Given that both kinds of nullification exist, which is more likely to constitute an abuse of discretion, or to take place in opposition to the values of the community? As Clay S. Conrad's book makes clear, the answer is not as easy as most modern discussion would have it. ....

Sammy Sosa claimed he couldn't speak English in front of Congress. There is plenty of evidence to show this to be an outright lie or perjury.

Mark McGwire blatantly refused to answer direct questions posed to him. Obstruction of justice.

Rafael Palmeiro wagged his finger indignantly to the Congress and stated he never used steroids. Then he failed a drug test a short time later. Yet the Congress felt they didn't have enough evidence that he lied.

So "prosecutorial indifference" or discretion or nullification is used all the time.

Miguel Tejeda might be go down as the only one to plead guilty and that was for lying about talking about steroid use with other players.

from the Washington Post:
Tejada to Plead Guilty to Lying to Steroids Investigators
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/10/AR2009021001356_2.html?sid=ST2009021003699

The one count on which Barry Bonds was convicted of was for being evasive in an answer to the grand jury.

So while I don't take great pleasure in saying I told you so, well, I told you so all along.

Congress engaged in this witch-hunt, if you will recall, while our economy and our financial system were apparently in the simmering stage of a total meltdown.

We were told not to worry, that Congress could multi-task, they could walk and chew gum at the same time.

Apparently, just from observing how they have handled the recent debt limit talks, these clown-asses can't even handle ONE task at a time without totally screwing things up.

Once again, a sad example of our tax dollars at work.

The Fed floats the prospect of QE3 and the markets react....

HISTORY MAY NOT REPEAT, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO RHYME

...as they always do, like a junkie between fixes. Aided and abetted by enablers in Congress, who get their own little "fix". All these various and sundry crises' are mere acts in a play to set the stage for what these guys really want -- another fix.

What we need (at the Fed, in the White House and in Congress) is for someone who acts like the mother is this scene from Basketball Diaries. Just a little integrity and courage to do the right thing even if it hurts someone you love deeply, but hardly recognize anymore.

We're hooked on out of control debt and consumption, have been for many years.
(and that includes the time period where Clinton patrolled the White House, some seem to not want to face up to that fact)

That's the current state of our country, our economy and our politics. Watch it and weep.
(Caution: bad language alert)

Basketball Diaries - "Mom, Can you give me some money ?!"



Ron Paul schools Ben Bernanke again today:


In five minutes of questioning, RP covered the fallacy of lies that is the CPI, the futility of the various QE and bailout programs and where the money SHOULD have gone and so much more. A very good, very concise five minutes of questioning. And I thought he could have really drilled him harder. Bernanke was on the ropes and clueless on the Gold question.

If you don't understand how badly Paul spanks Bernanke here, you don't get it and you never will.

Ron Paul asks Bernanke, "Is Gold Money?". Bernanke's response: PRICELESS!!

Nate the Great tweaked and Giants cultivating future stars

This is a great article from Splashing Pumpkins blog illustrating how some recent tweaks to Giants Nate Schierholtz' stance have provided significant results. More amazing that these adjustments have been made during the season. Kudos to Hensley Meulens and Nate the Great.


from Splashing Pumpkins blog:
A Look at Nate's Batting Stance
http://bleacherreport.com/tb/ba7bR

There aren't many changes from the stance Nate displayed on July 1st, but I included this image because the camera angle is essentially the same as the angle used in the first image. Compare away!

I'm no hitting guru, but I know that simpler is usually better when it comes to batting stances. By eliminating his leg kick stride, Schierholtz has definitely made his stance simpler. This potentially allows him to see the ball earlier, which leads to all sorts of good things -- better pitch recognition, turning on the inside pitch, etc. And hey, even if the changes don't work out in the long run, we still have this:

----

Meanwhile, down on the farm it seems as if the top bats in the system are all hitting well enough to provide the type of organizational depth to make deals or overcome injuries and lack of productivity at the major league level.


SF AAA Belt, Brandon RF 4 1 2 1 .330 HR (5)
SF AAA Gillaspie, Conor 3B 4 2 2 2 .296 2 HR (6)
SF AAA Neal, Thomas LF 4 2 3 0 .321 2B (13)
SF AA Dominguez, Chris 3B 3 1 3 1 .315 2B (10)


Baseball America published its mid-season list of top 50 prospects and the Giants placed two on the list, OF Gary Brown and RHP Zack Wheeler. This demonstrates that the course the Giants have taken in recent years -- to build up the farm system and walk away from the signing of or trading for high-priced veterans -- is about to bear fruit and should be maintained. As enticing as it is to imagine a Jose Reyes or Carlos Beltran in the middle of the lineup, if the cost to obtain one of those stars is mortgaging the future, I say no. A Soriano - Zito type swap is more in order.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/07/midseason-top-50-prospects-list/

33 Gary Brown, of, Giants
35 Zack Wheeler, rhp, Giants

Family Circle names St. Charles No. 1 city in the country - DailyHerald.com

Not to sound like a shill for the Chamber of Commerce but I agree with the assessment of Family Circle regarding our neighboring city. Kudos to Saint Charles, Illinois!!


Family Circle names St. Charles No. 1 city in the country - DailyHerald.com:

"St. Charles was the only city in the state that made Family Circle’s list.

The magazine chose St. Charles for its “friendly neighborhoods, innovative schools and beautiful parks” according to a news release. The conditions considered were “affordable housing, good neighbors, green spaces, strong public school systems and giving spirits.”"

Mayor Don DeWitte said one of the best features of St. Charles is having a community that works together in all areas of the town.

“I think the criteria that may have shone the brightest is the fact that our community has the government, the city, the school and the park district working together creating a family-friendly environment,” DeWitte said.

District 303 Superintendent Don Schlomann said cooperation is key.
“The city, the school district, the library, the county, the township, the park district meets monthly,” Schlomann said. “We try to make the government more responsive and make our community work together. I think it’s paid off.”

.............St. Charles has unique amenities that other communities don’t have like the Fox River, the nature center, the Pottawatomie Park 9-hole golf course and the miles of bike trails along the river.

Alderman Jon Monken, who is executive director of the Norris Recreation Center, has been a city resident since 1986.

“What’s really neat about the community is it still holds on to that heritage and the family touch,” he said. “So many of us do know each other, which makes everyone feel so comfortable.
“I can’t think of a better town to raise my family,” Monken said.

SF Giants' Brandon Crawford ends dry spell

Brandon Crawford Trick plays from AA Ball

Given his skill set with the glove, Crawford can be a quality major league SS in the future. He was rushed to the majors due to the Giants rash of injuries this season and his lack of development with the bat has been exposed a bit, but he is making adjustments. Ideally, this learning would be done at the AA or AAA level, but if Crawford manages to keep his head above water, he only needs to hit .250 - .270 to be a valuable member of a winning team. When he is at SS and Burris is at 2B, the defensive side of the ledger is more adequately covered.

From sfgate.com
SF Giants' Brandon Crawford ends dry spell:

"The 24-year-old has been up and down at the plate. When he arrived, he had some great at-bats, which suddenly disappeared. But in six games after his batting average dipped to a low of .182 after going hitless against Cleveland on June 24, he went 7-for-18 and added 39 points to the average. It dipped from .221 to .212 after Sunday's 0-for-4.

He credited a mechanical change he made at Hensley Meulens' suggestion. It involves his hands and allows him to load up his swing faster.

'I'm seeing the ball better and making better decisions,' he said, 'when before, everything was rushed and I was swinging at everything. Now I'm doing everything sooner and I can see the ball longer.'"

Imagine That!!! John Lennon a conservative???

You may say I'm a dreamer...
But I hope he's not the only one....
I hope someday all the leftists grow up and join us....
And the world will live as one.....

Oh, that was too easy!

Hat Tip to the Conservative Manifesto, original story appeared in the Toronto Sun.
http://www.torontosun.com/2011/06/28/lennon-was-a-closet-republican-assistant

Of course, this is confirmation of the wisdom behind the old Winston Churchill quote:

"If you aren't LIBERAL when you're 20, you have NO HEART. If you aren't CONSERVATIVE when you're 40, you have NO BRAIN."

Fortunately, many of these idealistic numb-skulls mature and get more realistic than idealistic, but there's always an Al Gore or Howard Dean (among others) that prefer to remain stubborn Pollyanna's.

Unfortunately, too many will continue to let the facts of reality get in the way of the idealistic fantasy world they have constructed for themselves.

Time (and wisdom) is on our side though.

John Lennon, a Ronald Reagan fan? Imagine that!! ROTFLAO.

The Conservative Manifesto -- In great victories, expect attacks.: Personal Assistant Confesses: John Lennon was in the Closet:

"John Lennon was a closet Republican, who felt a little embarrassed by his former radicalism, at the time of his death - according to the tragic Beatles star's last personal assistant.

Fred Seaman worked alongside the music legend from 1979 to Lennon's death at the end of 1980 and he reveals the star was a Ronald Reagan fan who enjoyed arguing with left-wing radicals who reminded him of his former self.

...

He says, 'John, basically, made it very clear that if he were an American he would vote for Reagan because he was really sour on (Democrat) Jimmy Carter.

...

'I also saw John embark in some really brutal arguments with my uncle, who's an old-time communist... He enjoyed really provoking my uncle... Maybe he was being provocative... but it was pretty obvious to me he had moved away from his earlier radicalism.

'He was a very different person back in 1979 and 80 than he'd been when he wrote Imagine. By 1979 he looked back on that guy and was embarrassed by that guy's naivete.'"

---

P.S. - BTW, This phenomena is not in any way limited to John Lennon. We have seen in the past where artists such as Prince and Bruce Springsteen have espoused liberal, spread the wealth policies with OPM (Other Peoples Money) but kept as much of the product of their own personal labor as they can. I have nothing against that, it's the American Way, just noting the apparent hypocrisy.

We also see the contradictions on college campuses:
http://slavieboy.blogspot.com/2011/04/brilliant-video-liberal-college.html

Yesterday, I heard a local ESPN jock relating a story about how a Chicago panhandler demanded (and they don't ask anymore, they demand) that he buy him a sandwich inside a local Subway shop. So being the nice, concerned citizen he is, this DJ agreed to buy the guy a meatball sub. As the order was being processed, the vagrant told the dude he also wanted a Diet Coke and a cookie, in addition to the sandwich. The guy claimed he drew the line and said 'No, I said I'd buy you a sandwich, that should be enough'!!

It struck me as ironic, because this guy is a strident Obamanomics, spread-the-wealth acolyte publicly, but from the nexus of the story, appears to harbor some latent Tea-Party philosophies deep down inside. Welcome to OUR WORLD, dude!!! Once again, ROTFLAO!!!

Bruce Springsteen News: brucespringsteen.net - Eulogy for a friend

Following that is a great piece by Joe Posnanski about Bruce, Clarence, the classic Springsteen songs Rosalita and Growin' Up and growing old together. Bruce and the boys really reached a wide audience and Posnanski really captures the influences these guys had on us, mirroring our common feelings almost, as we traveled through life together. He does a great job of reflecting and capturing the greatness of Rosalita.

I have similar feeling about Badlands that I add below.

RIP C.C. - you will be sorely missed and never replaced.

Apologies to all my non-Springsteen fans out there, 1) we are still in a state of mourning and 2) I can't believe I have referenced Bruce Bochy more times in this blog than I have Bruce Springsteen. That simply has to change.

Bruce's eulogy for his friend Clarence Clemons.
Bruce Springsteen News: brucespringsteen.net:

"Of course, also enchanted was Sam's dad, from the first time I saw my pal striding out of the shadows of a half empty bar in Asbury Park, a path opening up before him; here comes my brother, here comes my sax man, my inspiration, my partner, my lifelong friend. Standing next to Clarence was like standing next to the baddest ass on the planet. You were proud, you were strong, you were excited and laughing with what might happen, with what together, you might be able to do. You felt like no matter what the day or the night brought, nothing was going to touch you. Clarence could be fragile but he also emanated power and safety, and in some funny way we became each other's protectors; I think perhaps I protected 'C' from a world where it still wasn't so easy to be big and black. Racism was ever present and over the years together, we saw it. Clarence's celebrity and size did not make him immune. I think perhaps 'C' protected me from a world where it wasn't always so easy to be an insecure, weird and skinny white boy either."

But, standing together we were badass, on any given night, on our turf, some of the baddest asses on the planet. We were united, we were strong, we were righteous, we were unmovable, we were funny, we were corny as hell and as serious as death itself. And we were coming to your town to shake you and to wake you up. Together, we told an older, richer story about the possibilities of friendship that transcended those I'd written in my songs and in my music. Clarence carried it in his heart. It was a story where the Scooter and the Big Man not only busted the city in half, but we kicked ass and remade the city, shaping it into the kind of place where our friendship would not be such an anomaly. And that... that's what I'm gonna miss. The chance to renew that vow and double down on that story on a nightly basis, because that is something, that is the thing that we did together... the two of us. Clarence was big, and he made me feel, and think, and love, and dream big. How big was the Big Man? Too fucking big to die. And that's just the facts. You can put it on his grave stone, you can tattoo it over your heart. Accept it... it's the New World.

Clarence doesn't leave the E Street Band when he dies. He leaves when we die.

---

Best ever performance of Rosalita? - Bruce Springsteen & the E Street Band (edited)

Bruce Springsteen & the E Street Band at the Capitol Theater, Passaic, NJ on 19 September 1978.



Best ever performance of Rosalita? - Bruce Springsteen & the E Street Band (full version)

Capitol Theater, Passaic, NJ 20 Sept.1978 Rosalita



http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/06/big-man.html

I only saw Bruce Springsteen and the E-Street Band perform Rosalita one time in all the years. I love Rosalita, love the song because it sounds like 17 years old, you know? It is bold and messy and irresponsible and full of life. The words, let's not kid anybody, are ridiculous. We're going to play some pool, skip some school, act real cool, stay out all night, it's gonna feel all right. The instruments seem to me to be attacking each other in a playful way -- like a musical water-balloon fight. Rock and roll can mean so many things. One of those things it can mean is youth. But youth fades. Layla grows old. Amanda grows old, Beth grows old, Melissa, Michelle, my bell, Miss Molly, Good Golly, Billie Jean, not my lover, Judy Blue Eyes, Brown Eyed Girl, sha la la la, Lola, L-O-L-A, Lola, Roxanne, heck, even Mary and Wendy grow old.

But, to my ears anyway, Rosalita stays young forever.

I'm like this with music, ask too much of it, maybe. I do not expect real magic when going to a magic show. But I do when seeing Springsteen and the E-Street Band. I expect something to ignite, something that doesn't quite add up, something that leaps beyond the songs, beyond the instruments, beyond Bruce's voice, beyond ... I expect it because they delivered it every time I saw them play. Sometimes it happened only for a minute. Sometimes, it lasted for 20. Sometimes that something beyond overpowered the whole night.

That was the Big Man, to me. He was the force behind that something beyond.

You probably heard how they met -- Bruce Springsteen and Clarence Clemons. Springsteen told the story many times. It was on the night of the great lightning storm in Asbury Park. The wind was howling, man. Springsteen -- Bad Scooter -- was in a bar with a band, and he was playing for the crowd, but, no, it wasn't happening, he was searching for something, searching (if you will) for his groove, but he couldn't find it. And then it happened. Lightning sizzled. Thunder cracked. The wind howled. The front door of the bar blew off its hinges. And in walked Clemons. He walked on stage. He pulled out a saxophone he happened to be carrying with him. The Big Man joined the band.

The story always went something like that, impossibly large, because rock and roll is impossibly large, or it can be if you love it enough. And Bruce, Clarence, yes, they loved it enough. The Big Man was the grandson of a Baptist preacher. He was the son of a longshoreman and restaurant owner. He was a football player -- good enough, the story goes, to get a tryout with the Cleveland Browns. When he was 9 he got an alto saxophone as a present. When he was 16, he heard King Curtis of The Coasters play baritone sax on Yakety Yak. When he was 29, he walked through the busted door in a bar in Asbury Park and he saw Bruce Springsteen, and in his own words: "We fell in love."

They were right for each other and wrong for each other, and maybe that's where the magic came from. Rock and roll bands weren't black and white in those days -- or even too much these days, to be blunt about it. Hard-charging guitarists didn't have soulful saxophone players driving their songs. Clemons was already 29 years old when he and Springsteen joined together, and he already had lived a lot of life, had already faced triumph and disappointment and tested the edge. Springsteen was 21 and not entirely sure what he wanted except that he wanted it to be great.

Rosalita, the song, comes from that time. They first performed it in 1973. Rosalita keeps no secrets. Rosalita hides no feelings. Everything in the song is on the surface, above the surface, the longing -- for fame, for love, for heat, for something to do. It is a young man trying desperately, so desperately, to reach beyond himself and write the most joyous song ever written. Windows are for cheaters. Chimneys for the poor. Oh, closets are for hangers. WInners use the door. For years, Springsteen and the band would close out every one of their concerts with Rosalita. Bruce would cry out. Clarence would blow. They would chase each other around the stage. The band crashed sounds together. It was everything that they were about. Springsteen would shout that it was the greatest love song he ever wrote.

Then, one day, they stopped playing it. This was in the mid-80s. They said the song had grown tepid after so many plays. That's probably true. But I think the song was no longer what they were about. By then, Bad Scooter was in his mid-30s, the Big Man was in his 40s, and Rosalita was too young for either of them. No matter how they howled, she was not coming out.

In the late 1980s, the band broke up. Springsteen tried to find his groove again and it wasn't easy; he seemed out of ideas. He recorded a song about how on his television there were 57 channels and nothing on. Clemons went down to Florida, bounced around, backed up up a few bands, did a few solo things, played in some movies. There were no hard feelings, or anyway, no hard feelings that diminished the love. The band did a few things together. And then, they got back together, recorded some more music, some of it inspired, and more than anything they hit the road.

I saw Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band call out Rosalita on August 24, 2008 -- the date stands out because it was the Sunday of the Beijing Olympics. I had flown home that day from China. I felt that deep exhaustion that comes from flying halfway around the world, but I went to the show anyway, and it's a lucky thing because it was the best Springsteen show I ever saw. It was the last night of the tour, and Bruce was hyped, and the band was into it, and everything felt charged.

And before the night ended, they played Rosalita. Throughout the song, I watched Clarence Clemons. He was, by then, 66 years old, and he was an old 66. The Big Man lived uphill. He partied hard. He married five times. He hopelessly chased his own youth. He pushed against the wind. They had put a chair for him on stage, and he needed it most of the night. He could barely stand. He could hardly move.

In any case, they played Rosalita and I watched the Big Man, and I would love to tell you that he grew young before my eyes. I would love to tell you that because it would make for a wonderful tribute. But it isn't so. The music was young. Even the music he played was young. The man behind the saxophone was old. He tried to dance, and in some vague way he did. When he finished, he was breathing heavy. Here's the thing: It wasn't sad. Well, maybe it was a little sad because the years go by too fast. But seeing him step out of his chair, walk slowly toward Bruce, play the familiar riffs for Rosalita, seeing him and the band sing that line, "Your papa says he knows he knows that I don't (have any money)," it was beautiful. Because he loved it. He still loved it. He couldn't be young again. But he could remember being young. And that was the something beyond.

My favorite Bruce Springsteen tale is one he used to tell before singing "Growing Up." It was about going to see God. His father had told him to become a lawyer. His mother had told him to write books. And they had both told him to get rid of that "god-damned guitar" -- that, of course, was what they always called his guitar -- not Fender or Gibson. Bruce went to see the priest. He asked what he should do. The priest said the question was too big. He needed to go ask God.

And this is my favorite part of the story: Bruce went to Clarence Clemons. Why? Because Clarence knew everybody. Clarence would know where to find God. Bruce showed up, and Clarence asked him if he really intended to go see God in a Nash Rambler -- God, after all, had people coming to him in Cadillacs. Bruce said that the Nash was all he had. Clemons shrugged and took Bruce along a dark road, through the woods, to a little house to see God.

The story ends with God telling Springsteen that there was an 11th Commandment left off: "Let it rock." But I don't care much for the ending. I care only for the drive. Clarence Clemons died on Saturday. He was 69 years old. And I think of Rosalita and being young. More, though, I think of Bruce and Clarence, Bad Scooter and the Big Man, in that Nash Rambler driving through the dark to find God.

Bruce Springsteen - Rosalita (Come Out Tonight) Live 1984

Bruce Springsteen & The E Street Band - Rosalita (Come Out Tonight) at CNE Grandstand in Toronto, Canada on July 26/1984



-----

For me the song that synonymous of the Bruce / Clarence magic was Badlands (and to a degree, Jungleland). Badlands twisted and turned from confusion, despair and heartache and eventually to triumph. It was the prototypical anthem of hope and it changed my mindset many times when I was down. Almost a combination of philosophical and biblical wisdom interspersed throughout. In some areas, Badlands was Job-esque. In others, it drew wisdom like that which appeared in Paul's letter to the Corinthians. This song was a consistent reminder of the power of perseverance and staying grounded in ones core values.

It always seemed like it was Clemons' saxophone riffs that provided the impetus for the move from confusion, loss and despair into triumph. Thanks for that Big Man.

Bruce Springsteen - Badlands - Live In New York City




Bruce Springsteen-Badlands


Perseverance, endurance, faith

Badlands you gotta live it every day
Let the broken hearts stand
As the price you've gotta pay
We'll keep pushin' till it's understood
And these badlands start treating us good

Wisdom, perspective, values

"Poor man wanna be rich, rich man wanna be king
And a king ain't satisfied till he rules everything"

Faith, hope, love

"Now I believe in the love that you gave me
I believe in the faith that could save me
I believe in the hope and I pray that some day
It will raise me above these
Badlands...":

Triumph

"For the ones who had a notion, a notion deep inside
That it ain't no sin to be glad you're alive
I wanna find one face that ain't looking through me
I wanna find one place, I wanna spit in the face of these
Badlands..."

Proposed changes to MLB Draft

Economic Changes:

Slotting Bonuses - this has been done on an informal (soft) basis, may be made more formal (hard) going forward. May only apply to the first five rounds with exceptions for multi-sport players, who have more leverage.

Drafting International Players - some sort of clearinghouse to verify players ages in Cuba and DR could complicate this, but an area that would put foreign players on somewhat equal footing with their American counterparts and may curb some of the abuses seen in Dominican Republic with agents and baseball academies in that area.

Capping Signing Budgets and Trading of Draft Picks.



Operational Changes:

Moving the Draft to after the CWS - currently held the first week of June -- before the CWS -- may be moved to the end of June. The colleges need early clarity for recruiting.

Possibly, MLB could arm twist the colleges to adopt composite bat standards that more closely mimic wood bat performance in order to better evaluate hitter / pitchers.

The pros would like to see pitchers operate under stricter pitch counts, perhaps formalized.

In return, hopefully the colleges could arm twist the NCAA to allow for a higher scholarship level for men's baseball. Title IX considerations now seem to be pinching men's programs up and down the line at a time when the is little or no discrimination against women's programs.

Why Can't We Cut Our Way to Prosperity? - Seeking Alpha

This article on spending, the deficit and the debt makes too much common sense, but of course runs counter to the spendthrifts currently in power. They forget their own history and cherry-pick data to fit their narrative du-jour.

Additional spending, in this economic environment, has done nothing to encourage growth. NOTHING!! The answer is NOT, "Well, we didn't spend enough".

There are good reasons why when you are mired in debt, the bank refuses you for a loan and the credit card companies cut down your credit limit. You are an increased risk of defaulting, or not paying the debt back. The same is true for nations, eventually.

The line of the day - "The Fed may not be out of bullets, but they appear to be shooting blanks."

And once the this economy / currency goes down, nobody will step in and bail U.S.
out. There are nations (China, Russia) that will step over our cold, lifeless body and reshape the world economy, that's for sure.

These knuckle-heads always point to the Clinton-era as the Shangri-la of recent economic history, but they always misrepresent some of the reasons why and forget that many of the seeds for our recent demise were planted during the Clinton-Rubin-Summers era.

How soon we forget.

Why Can't We Cut Our Way to Prosperity? - Seeking Alpha:

"In his weekly radio address yesterday, President Obama said, in regard to the upcoming talks he will be having with Congressional leaders over reviving the stalled budget negotiations, 'we can't simply cut our way to prosperity.'

He might do well to consider the record of the Clinton administration. As these charts show, federal spending as a % of GDP fell 4 percentage points—from 22% to 18%—during the 1993-2000 period, thanks mainly to 8 years of very low spending growth: 3.1% on average. During that same period, real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% per year, well above its long-term 3.1% per year average, and the unemployment rate fell from 7.4% to 3.9%.

During that same period, rising prosperity resulted in a surge of federal tax receipts, which rose from 17% of GDP to 20%, as revenue growth averaged 7.8% per year. The combination of very slow spending growth and a strong economy reduced the budget deficit from 5% of GDP to a surplus of 2.5% of GDP. And thanks to the combination of strong growth and tight monetary policy, the dollar rose 20% during this period, further boosting confidence and investment."

The hallmarks of policy during the 1993-2000 period are exactly what we need today: 1) sharply curtailed spending growth and 2) tighter monetary policy. It's not a coincidence that explosive spending growth and easy money have given us the slowest recovery on record. Moral of the story: you can't simply spend your way to prosperity.

UPDATE: To expand on this most important of themes: You can't spend or print your way to prosperity; prosperity comes only from hard work and productive investments. Government doesn't know how to do either very well, since it lacks the profit motive, and politicians have the luxury of spending other peoples' money instead of their own. Printing money doesn't create prosperity because it only fosters speculation and destroys confidence in the value of a currency. The worst thing about policies of the past several years (including the Bush administration) has been the reliance on policies (e.g., lots of government spending and easy money) that don't make any sense, but which sound good because they supposedly put the politicians and the bureaucrats in charge of pulling the economy out of a slump that they themselves (of course) were responsible for creating. The Keynesian belief that politicians and bureaucrats can pull spending and money levers and thus turn around the economy have once again been totally discredited. How long will it take before we as a country learn this lesson?

---

Was the President smarter then or now?

“The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. Leadership means that ‘the buck stops here.’ Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better. I therefore intend to oppose the effort to increase America's debt limit.” - Barack Obama March 16, 2006

----
From the Daily Capitalist blog:

The New Theater Of The Absurd: The Budget Debates
By Jeff Harding, on June 29th, 2011

http://dailycapitalist.com/2011/06/29/the-new-theater-of-the-absurd-the-budget-debates/#more-11698

The worst thing I heard from Mr. Obama this morning was his assertion that we can’t cut spending that makes the economy grow, or words to that effect. Our President is channeling J.M. Keynes and FDR. Government spending can’t make the economy grow. It never has, never will. Otherwise, just let the government run the economy in its entirety if they think they can make it grow. We all recall the places where that has been tried and the results of that policy. It happened here during the FDR regime when he tried to substitute central economic planning for market forces. The Great Depression lasted about 20 years.

But then, we are witnessing the Theater of the Absurd. Like those Existentialist plays, it is as if we are trapped in an incomprehensible world, devoid of meaning, reason, and morality, and where gibberish is substituted for rational thought and discussion.

I don’t think this will be a spectacle that we will enjoy watching.

----
From Kark Denninger's Market Ticker blog:

More Debt Threats: Don't Fall For It Congress

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=189127

Right. But here's the problem - Treasury has more than enough coming in from tax deposits to honor that thirty billion in rollover.

The government borrows about 40 cents of every dollar it spends at present. This means two things:

There is more than enough money coming in to pay the debt and interest that matures. Therefore, a default would be an intentional act by Tim Geithner, much as it is when you decide not to pay your mortgage (despite having the money to do so.) Selective default is a choice, but it is a freely-entered into choice. What Geithner is doing is threatening an intentional, strategic default if he doesn't get his (and Obama's) way.

If the government does not get its debt increase it must immediately balance the budget. This is good, not bad, in the intermediate and longer term.

The problem is that this situation also exposes the truth, which nobody wants to face in Congress: Whether you raise taxes or cut spending the economic impact is the same - 12% of GDP disappears.

Sorry folks, that's the arithmetic - fifth-grade arithmetic.