Saturday, May 24, 2008

ODDS OF WINNING - SO FAR





According to the standings below, only 10 AL teams and 8 NL teams have a realistic shot (> 10:1 odds) of making the playoffs. Almost half of the teams are effectively eliminated and we're only at about the 1/3 mark of the season. That doesn't sound like competitive balance to me.

In the AL:
OAK 70.4%
CHIW 67.5%
BOS 66.0%
TB 53.0%
LAA 42.5%
CLE 29.1%
MIN 16.9%
TOR 16.3%
TEX 14.9%
NYY 10.6%

In the NL:
ARIZ 86.8%
CHIC 81.8%
ATL 57.4%
STL 35.6%
LAD 35.4%
PHI 32.7%
HOU 27.0%
NYM 13.1%

Pre-season playoff hopefuls Detroit (2.8%) Seattle (0.2%) would seem to prefer not making the playoffs then to sign THE B-POPE. Milwaukee at (2.5%) also needs to kick it into gear and soon or their hopes are dashed. Way to go Bud.

The Gigantes come in at (0.2%) chance of making the playoffs - a 500 to 1 shot. Happy Fiftieth Birthday indeed. Way to thank the fans for their years of unrewarded support. Start taking a page from the Cubs marketing handbook.

FROM WEBSITE coolbaseballstandings.com
http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?i=1

We've been hearing a lot about how the latest iteration of baseball's drug testing has changed the game from more of a power to speed game or maybe more of a veterans game to a young man's game and this has given teams like the Rays a chance to compete against the more financially gifted Yankees and Sox.

I think the jury is still out on that one, but it is a bit amazing how the tone of the message has changed, a virtual 180 degree shift, from "well testing will never stay ahead of the cheaters" to "wow, it looks like the shame game is more effective than onerous testing".



WHERE HAVE ALL THE HR'S GONE AND WHY. SOMETIMES THE MOST OBVIOUS ANSWER ISN'T THE CORRECT ONE (from SportsEconomist.com)

The commentators are giddy that the number of HR's are down in the early part of the season, even though it seems as if the abnormally cold, early season weather could be more of a factor than the disappearance of some of the big homer BALCO guys (Bonds, Sheffield, etc.)



BALL-BAT COLLISION ILLUSTRATED


A factor that I believe has gone under reported has been the loss of velocity of pitchers. Not just the most notable examples of Barry Zito or Mike Mussina, but across the board. The White Sox commentators are "searching" for an answer to Bobby Jenks loss of velocity from 97-99MPH top speed to 92-93MPH. We're talking about guys in their prime years, without any reported injuries and yet the velocity dropped precipitously. WTF, right? The missing factor in the discussion is the disappearing velocity of the pitchers.

It's interesting to note that you don't see the radar gun readings for pitchers displayed on the screen on any baseball telecasts anymore. Wonder why that is?

As the illustration above shows, in the all important ball-bat collision, a loss of velocity from EITHER bat speed or ball speed, will result in a loss of exit speed of the ball and therefore a loss of distance the ball travels. But pitchers using never really fit the MSM agenda until Roger Clemens entered the fray.

I sense such a seismic shift in the tone and tenor of the debate from the WWLIS that I can only speculate that an ESPN/MLB deal of epic proportions is in the works and that the "you don't shit where you eat" theory is currently in effect.

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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.