DOW 10,000 - ???

We may not be collectively singing "Happy Days are here Again" but don't look now-- according to the forward looking stock market--maybe we should at least begin humming a few bars.

The Dow has crossed 9,000 to go positive for the year, finally.
The S&P 500 is @ 975 and looking to cross 1,000.
The tech-laden NASDAQ is sniffing the 2,000 level.

POSITIVE SIGNS FOR CONTINUED OPTIMISM:
TED Spread is 0.33 and going lower (0.20 in the pre-collapse days)
Barron's Confidence Index is ~70 and improving (70+ pre-collapse)
Fed Discount Rate Model is accommodative (bullish for stocks)
Yield Curve Spread is > 3.5% and upward sloping (bullish for financials and economy overall
VIX < 30 (15-20 pre-collapse) NEGATIVE SIGNS THAT COULD RUIN THE PARTY:
Continued rising unemployment approaching 10%
Home prices that may be bottoming, but haven't clearly turned back upward
Does stimulus help or hurt
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Brian Wesbury, First Trust Advisors

As he writes in his latest Forbes commentary: "To determine
fair value for the stock market we use historical norms for
the relationship between stock prices, interest rates and
corporate profits. These norms suggest that with interest
rates at current levels and corporate profits where they
were in the first quarter of 2009, stocks today are at no
more than 50% of fair value. Yes, that's right, stocks would
have to roughly double from here to get to fair value."

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Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said during a visit to Beijing on June 2 that Chinese officials expressed "justifiable confidence" in the strength of the American economy [They also laughed at him when he told them China’s investment in US assets were safe]. China expects the greenback to maintain its role for "many years to come," Deputy Foreign Minister He Yafei told reporters in Rome on July 5.

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There are considerable challenges in the short-term. The adminsitration and Congress has to do a better job helping to revive employment and housing. The Fed has done all it can do to help. If Bernake is wrong about QE and the Congress/Administration/Treasury screws up on the policy front, we'll be back to gold,guns and Campbell Soup.

Question?? Why when oil goes up, it's due to greedy speculation. But when it goes down, there is no question about speculation driving the price south? One of the biggest driver of price of any commodity is the monetary policy of the biggest speculators in the world, the Reserve Banks. Their speculation moves the price of oil, agriculture, gold, silver, copper and other basic materials. Just asking.