Handicapping the Health Care Vote

TIME TO STOP POINTING FINGERS AND CHOOSE SIDES


Just looking at this from a detached--"where would I set the over/under on this if I were making book"--point of view, this thing should literally come down to arm-wrestling over the last vote to push it over the 216 needed for passage.

Using information from the NYT listed here:

From the New York Times

Democrats to Watch on the Health Care Vote

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/03/16/us/politics/20100316-health-care-dems.html?ref=politics

Below are House Democrats who may decide the fate of the health care overhaul in coming days. Some are members who supported Representative Bart Stupak’s amendment that added abortion restrictions to the House’s bill, which passed in November, and feel the Senate bill, which the House will be voting on, is too weak on abortion. There are also representatives who voted “no” in November, but who party leaders hope to sway. If all of the current 431 House members vote, Democrats will need 216 to pass. The vote tally is based on a variety of factors — including the political landscape of each district, and the lawmaker’s voting record and past public statements on health care. The tally will be updated as more lawmakers announce their intentions.

If you phrase out each of the six column headings and make a best-case/worst-case projection in each category and average out the totals, Pelosi either has at worst 214.5 votes currently and at best maybe 220.

Here's how I see it. The site says she has 198 yes votes currently. Most of the more recent undecided are turning yes indicating she is garnering the low hanging fruit she needs so far. The other 33 should be a harder sell.

By category, the 33 remaining undecideds flesh out as follows:

Lame Ducks: 4
Pro-Life: 23
McCain Districts: 18
Obama Districts: 15
Freshman: 8
Blue Dogs: 18

Total of 86 "category points" among the final 33 undecided votes.

This adds up to more than 33 due to overlapping. Some are counted in more than one category, so we can't be too sure what category will most likely sway their final vote.

Among the lame ducks, Pelosi should get at least 3-4 votes. These guys are out, they can get other government jobs within the administration in exchange for their vote, or goodies for the district. This should be a slam dunk category.

The pro-lifers should be tough to sway. They've gone this far, there is almost no incentive to cave now. The Dem leadership will extract revenge just for stringing things out this long. So at best, maybe 6-7 votes here for the Dems.

The McCain district, they should be able to sway most of those, maybe 2/3. So 9-12 votes here.

The Obama districts, 2/3 to all of the votes should fall in line. So maybe 10-15 here.

Freshman congressman. If Pelosi can't browbeat them, she ought to hang it up. Maybe another 6-8 votes here.

The Blue Dogs are another tough category. They've gone this far, but the issue of party loyalty and paybacks are pretty tough to handicap. About 1/2 cave in at the last minute. I give Pelosi maybe 9 here.

There's 86 "category points: up for grabs. She gets 43/86 in a worst-case scenario.

So at worst, if I give her half the remaining 33 votes or 16.5 plus her 198 coming in for a total of 214.5. Just short, but enough to make everybody sweat.

At best, she gets 55/86 or almost 2/3 of the remaining 33 votes. That would be 22 plus the 198 she has for a victory lap 220 votes to PASS HEALTH CARE.

It really looks like it may come down to the resolve of the Pro-Life camp and the Blue Dog Democrat camp.

Interesting to note that there are 13 congressman who straddle both camps, seemingly making them a tough switch. If that's the case, Pelosi almost needs to run the table among the rest.

(Altmire, Barrow, Berry, Cuellar, Dahlkemper, Davis, Connelly, Ellsworth, Hill, Matheson, Pomeroy, Space and Tanner are the dual campers)

If you begin to see these names switch to yes, then the tide will have turned to yes.

Should be a fun weekend, MARCH MADNESS and DC MADNESS rolled into one.