One of the more difficult jobs in baseball has to be in the PR department of the Chicago Cubs. Somebody in those offices has to deliver a message or a slogan -- that tells a fan base that has waited rather patiently since 1945 for a World Series appearance and 1908 for a World Series championship -- that the waiting will continue. The best the Ricketts family could come up with after spending $845M to purchase the team was “Year One”.
Cub’s fans (and the Ricketts family) are going to demand more for their money than that in 2011 and the good news may be found within the clubs suddenly resurgent farm system. Under the leadership of GM Jim Hendry, Farm Director Oneri Fleita and Scouting Director Tim Wilken, the Cubs are planting the seeds down on the farm that may result in a bumper crop of future major leaguers.
The Cubs organization is currently considered to have as many future big leaguers in its system than any other team in baseball according to the consensus of opinion of scouts and minor league directors. The team stubbed its toe at the beginning of the decade with its first-round picks beginning in 2001 with Mark Prior (mixed results). The Cubs followed that with Bobby Brownlie, Ryan Harvey, Grant Johnson and Mike Pawelek. Since 2006, the first-round has produced Tyler Colvin, Josh Vitters, Andrew Cashner, Brett Jackson and Hayden Simpson. Getting better, but it will take some time and a Rookie of the Year perhaps, to erase the memories of past futility and false hopes Remember Felix Pie? Brian Dopirak? Corey Patterson? Angel Guzman? And please don’t make me go all Hee-Seop Choi on your behind. Suffice to say, Cubs fans have been through a lot. In more ways than one.
But perhaps things are beginning to look up. Last year the Cubs introduced SS Starlin Castro and OF Tyler Colvin, as well as RHP Andrew Cashner, to the roster with mixed results and some question marks. Castro was an immediate hit with the bat -- posting a .300 average -- but his defensive lapses were a cause for concern. In his defense, ideally Castro should have been learning his craft in AA-AAA ball last year. There is nothing harder on a young prospect than making rookie mistakes on the major league stage, on balance Castro performed remarkably well and the expectation is he will be a fixture at SS for years to come.
Tyler Colvin showed promise as a hitter early, than tailed off somewhat as pitchers made adjustments. Like Castro, Colvin enters a pivotal sophomore year. A more patient approach should bring down his strikeout rate (100 in 358 AB’s) and lift his average (.254 BA) closer to .300. Colvin did club 20 HR’s last year, so a 30-90-.275 stat line is not out of the question for Colvin.
The only question about Andrew Cashner seemed to be “future starter or closer?” For now, it seems as if he will help Kerry Wood set-up closer Carlos Marmol. Not a bad option to have, a 6-6, 210 pound flame-thrower to lock down the sixth and seventh innings of games.
The Cubs took a pinch off the top of the prospect list to acquire RHP Matt Garza from the Devil Rays. RHP Chris Archer, SS Hak-Ju Lee and OF Brandon Guyer were highly regarded, but replaceable and certainly worth the price to add Garza to the top of the rotation. Garza, Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster combined were 41-28 last year. Add a LHP Sean Marshall (7-5 record) instead of RHP Randy Wells (8-14 record) to the rotation and perhaps RHP Carlos Silva (10-6 record) or LHP James Russell and you have a starting staff that is capable of winning 60% or more of their approximately 90 decisions. Sixty percent gets you to 54-36. If you can manage to split those other games -- which are decided by bats and bullpens and in Wrigley Field generally leave behind softball scores – you can get to 90 wins and that should be good enough for a playoff berth, if not a divisional crown.
The bullpen is solid enough. The staff overall seems a little light on the left-handed side -- having dealt Tom Gorzelany to Washington for power-hitting prospect OF Michael Burgess -- and a decision has to be made on RHP Jeff Samardzia, but in a Central Division that may be the easiest pickings in the National League, the Cubbies have a shot as currently constructed.
Now, what does the future hold for the Cubs as far as prospects? After subtracting Archer and Lee from the top five prospects to get Garza, the Cubs recovered by securing Michael Burgess from Washington.
What is the buzz on Burgess? He’s a former first-rounder via Washington (2007 draft). A 5-11,195 lb. 22 year-old who throws and bats from the left side. Burgess brings a prodigious power bat, but strikes out frequently. He has a plus-OF arm. If he picks up his average a little and backs down the strikeouts (they go hand in hand) the Cubs appear to have a steal.
MICHAEL BURGESS
Former Nats' GM Jim Bowden offered this report recently:
“ Burgess has tremendous power, he's got 30-35 HR power, light-tower-power. When he hits them, he hits them a mile. He's got a great arm. He was a pitcher in high school, came out of Tampa, but a great arm. A good fielder, I'd say an average fielder with an above average [arm], he will throw you out. You try to score, you're not going to. You try to go first to third, Michael Burgess will throw you out. Now, what's the downside. High strikeouts. One out of four at bats he punches out. He's got some holes. He's got some mechanical things in his swing, I'm not going to call it a hitch, but he's got a little pump at the end that doesn't clear, and he hasn't been able to get rid of it yet, but, he's only 21-year-old, and that's when you look at prospects like this and you're seeing a guy that reaches all the way up to Double-A at twenty-one, if he was in the draft, he'd be coming out as a junior or senior in college and he'd be starting at A-ball or rookie ball. So, to me, you look at the age and go, okay only 21, he's got the power, and by the way, he's kept improving each year. I think it was a good pickup for [Cubs' GM] Jim Hendry. Look, he's not a sure thing, but if he makes it, if he can make some adjustments with the bat, and make more contact, Hendry might have just stolen a 25-30 HR major league hitter."
Not too bad. So Burgess goes towards the top of the list.
Keeping him company there and what, in some combination, will comprise the Cubs outfield of the future are:
Brett Jackson 6-2, 210 OF (2009 1st rounder) Age 22 - Best power hitter in organization, 4-tool player. Potential 20 HR, 20 SB type. Quick bat with plus speed.
BRETT JACKSON
Matt Szczur 6-1, 190 OF (2010 5th rounder) Age 21 – Best Athlete in organization. Fastest runner. Not much pop in the bat and needs more plate discipline and patience in hitting approach.
MATT SZCZUR
The top infield prospects would appear to be the following:
Josh Vitters 6-3, 195 3B (2007 1st rounder) Age 21 – Was the organizations top prospect in 2008-09. Has easy, compact stroke but can be pull-happy at times. Needs to develop a more patient approach.
JOSH VITTERS
Darwin Barney 5-10, 175 (2007 4th rounder) Age 25 – Makes contact, little pop in bat. Needs to be a more patient hitter as well. Best defensive IF in the organization.
DARWIN BARNEY
D.J. LeMahieu 6-4, 195 (2009 2nd rounder) Age 22 – May be one to watch down the road. Needs AA seasoning but early returns are good. Best Hitter for average in the organization, not much pop. Needs to develop more patient approach.
D.J. LEMAHIEU
Matt Cerda 5-9, 165 (2008 4th rounder) Age 20 – No speed, no pop. Consummate utility type prospect. Makes contact and HAS A PATIENT HITTING APPROACH. Yippee!!!!
MATT CERDA - CUBS PROSPECT
Cerda competed in the LLWS that featured Danny Almonte – his team lost – so from a purely poetic justice standpoint, I’m rooting for this kid.
Here is the ESPN.com article that documents the story:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=cerda
MATT CERDA - LITTLE LEAGUER
Among the pitching prospects:
Trey McNutt 6-4, 205 RHP (2009 32nd rounder) Age 21 - Good control, best curveball in the organization, a power CB. 92+ on the FB. High strikeout rate. (10.00 K/9IP).
TREY MCNUTT
Hayden Simpson 6-0, 175 RHP (2010 1st rounder) Age 21 - Surprise of the 2010 Draft 1st round. Cubs have seen him get the FB to 94-97. Has Maddux-like approach to pitching. Projects as a #2-3 starter. If he hits big and soon, he can have a major impact on the organizations fortunes.
HAYDEN SIMPSON
Chris Carpenter 6-4, 215 RHP (2009 3rd rounder) Age 25 - Possible bottom of the rotation starter or set-up reliever. Solid 92-95 FB good slider.
CHRIS CARPENTER
Rafael Dolis 6-4, 215 RHP (2004 Dominican Republic) Age 22 - Converted SS, project as a pitcher. High 90’s FB has broken 100+. Has some elbow and control issues.
RAFAEL DOLIS
So the future appears brighter. The transition from Lou Piniella to Mike Quade should allow the organization to transition more smoothly from a veteran oriented win-now approach, to a more patient system where impact players are drafted and developed from within. The recent success of organization like the Rays, Twins, Braves and more recently, the Giants World Series victory from last year, demonstrate that this approach can pay dividends rather quickly.
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