Baseball Rule 5 Draft coming up Dec 11th

The G-men protected the right guys, the middle inning relievers and potential set-up guys are the ones that seemingly garner the most attention and become the most likely to be plucked out of the organization. 

Given the Baseball America analysis, it doesn't seem as if the Giants will lose anybody since no Giants were mentioned in a rather lengthy list of prospects. 

Notable Players Available In The Rule 5 Draft - BaseballAmerica.com

				Notable Players Available In The Rule 5 Draft - Baseball... J.J. Cooper looks at some of the more notable players to keep in mind for the Rule 5 draft on Dec. 11.
				View on www.baseballameric...	Preview by Yahoo

The Rule 5 draft is fascinating because of its timing and its format. Positioned right in the middle of the baseball offseason, it gives everyone a chance to scour rosters and dream on talented players with flaws.

In reality, the change of eligibility rules in 2007 that gave teams an extra year of protection before players become eligible for the Rule 5 draft reduced the importance of the Rule 5 draft significantly. That extra year has made it easier for teams to make decisions on players, and since then, fewer impact players have been nabbed.

But teams will continue to scour rosters in hopes of finding another Joakim Soria, Dan Uggla orJosh Hamilton. Or at least another Ryan Flaherty or T.J. McFarland.

Osich and Bandilla may be on the move due to the rise of Steven Okert. Okert was a 2012 draftee while the other two were drafted in 2011, so Okert has another year before he needs to be added to the 40 man roster. Lefty pitching prospects are always at a premium, but you can only protect so many of them. 

This is basically a re-shuffling of the 2011 Draft deck, a draft that is looking very good for the Giants led by Panik, Crick and Susac. 

San Francisco Giants 2011 Draft Selections

http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=sf&year=2011

It also says a lot about what the Giants think of Ray Black and Derek Law, seventh and ninth rounders respectively.  Given the relative success and potential of Hunter Strickland, it goes to show you can't give up on power right-handed arms either.  

Giants Prospects protected:

Ray Black x
Derek Law x
Joan Gregorio x

Cody Hall x

Giants Prospects most likely to be drafted:

Josh Osich

Bryce Bandilla
Chuckie Jones
Ricky Oropesa
Kelby Tomlinson 

• The Rule 5 Draft is for prospects drafted out of college with 4 years of service and HS draftees and International signs with 5 years of service time can be selected by other teams in a draft order.  

Pablo Sandoval says goodbye to Giants fans, hello to Hanley - Giants Extra

Pablo Sandoval says goodbye to Giants fans, hello to Hanley

Posted on November 24, 2014 by Alex Pavlovic

Sandoval posted that on his Instagram page earlier tonight. He also posted a picture doing Hanley Ramirez’s “lo viste” gesture and an old one with David Ortiz. On that note, I think we’ll learn in the coming days that Ortiz had a lot to do with Sandoval and Ramirez deciding to team up in Boston. We usually see that move in the NBA, but seems these guys really wanted to team up. The press conference tomorrow is set for 1 p.m. in Boston.

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Giants options should the Panda thing not work out...

This is what we get? A 19-year old prospect? I doubt this is going to get it done, but whatever.

It seems as if the Giants should be around 50/50 to still retain Pablo given the Sawks renewed wanderlust for John Lester and the dollars he will require to sign. Toronto just signed Russell Martin and seems to be bidding on every available mega-free agent out there. The White Sox could still surprise from the rear.

San Francisco is still the best spot for Pablo overall unless he feels a compelling need to squeeze the free-agency lemon dry. If he weighs 290 and hits .220 in Boston for any length of time, especially after he signs for near $20 million per, do you think they go easy on him? Think it through Panda and Company. Sometimes you sacrifice dollars for quality of life.

from Bleacher Report / Baseball America:
8 Favorites to Watch in Moncada Sweepstakes:

One of the biggest stories in baseball is what will happen with Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada.

Trying to peg the market for Moncada is tricky. He’s widely viewed throughout the game as a premium talent, he’s able to play nearly anywhere on the field except shortstop, and he doesn’t need to fit a team’s major league roster immediately because he’s a 19-year-old who’s going to start his career in the minors. High and low revenue teams could all make a case to sign him.

While Major League Baseball has declared Moncada a free agent, Moncada has not obtained the specific license from OFAC that Major League Baseball requires players to have before signing, and there’s no clear timetable for when that will come.

San Francisco Giants

The World Series champions will have one of the lowest bonus pools in baseball. They have signed players the last couple years in the $500,000 neighborhood, but they have stayed away from the bigger-ticket items after spending heavily on Angel Villalona, Rafael Rodriguezand Gustavo Cabrera with little to show for their investment. The Giants are trying to become more active in the Cuban market, and with a fairly light farm system, Moncada would be a good fit, and a potentialPablo Sandoval replacement at third base should the Panda end up elsewhere.

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The PR hits just keep coming for the NFL

As if the NFL didn't have enough problems lately with concussions, domestic violence, homophobia or player conduct, now this. This has been going on in some fashion for generations. It is embedded in the culture, accepted and condoned by owners, players and fans. It's part of the warrior mentality. Without the mask of drugs dulling the pain, the warrior mask comes off and these guys become closer to the wanna-be cubical warriors who play flag football on the weekends -- a glorified recreational sport -- not a billion dollar, made for TV industry.

Maybe the NFL as a league needs something to dull the pain of the repetitive hits to it's image

from ESPN:
Drug Enforcement Administration stages surprise NFL inspections - ESPN

The DEA also has reason to believe visiting team physicians may not be keeping "readily retrievable documents," that spell out which prescription drugs are administered and to whom, the federal law enforcement source said.

"Our intelligence suggests controlled substances are not properly logged to specific players," the source added. 

 DEA agents planned Sunday to inspect the medical bags of visiting team doctors for prescription drugs while alongside Transportation Safety Administration screeners.

"If doctors don't get players back on the field, you think they're going to continue to be the team doctor?" Closius said, when asked about the NFL culture that routinely demands players play with pain.

"Everybody is subservient to this return-to-play culture -- doctors, general managers, coaches, everybody. And that return-to-play culture is responsible for this illegal distribution on drugs," Closius added.

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BBWAA yawns at Bochy's efforts as manager in 2014

He may however be the first to vanquish the two managers who finished ahead of him as well as the one who finished immediately behind him in the playoffs. He beat three of the top four managers to win the World Series, pretty incredible. As noted, the ballots are in prior to postseason play.


from BBWAA.com:
BBWAA.com: Official site of the Baseball Writers' Assn. of America.:

Ballots from two writers in each league city prior to postseason play are tabulated on a system that rewards five points for first place, three points for second place and one point for third place.

Manager, Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Points
Matt Williams, Nationals	18	6	1	109
Clint Hurdle, Pirates	8	12	4	80
Bruce Bochy, Giants	3	3	6	30
Mike Matheny, Cardinals		5	3	18
Mike Redmond, Marlins	1	2	5	16
Don Mattingly, Dodgers		1	9	12
Ron Roenicke, Brewers		1		3
Bud Black, Padres			1	1
Terry Collins, Mets			1	1

Below is a breakdown of the 30 individual ballots, submitted by two writers representing each city in the National League. Note that in some cases (*), when a city does not have enough eligible voters, a voter from another city represents that chapter. For more information on the voting, see our Voting FAQ.

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Buster Posey leads list of top 10 catchers - MLB - ESPN

This will be a burr in the saddle for Cardinals fans, but it's true. Posey takes his rightful place as #1. The results as far as the team goes speak for Posey's effect as a team leader.

from ESPN:
Buster Posey leads list of top 10 catchers - MLB - ESPN:

1. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants

For every evaluator who prefers Posey, there’s another who would rather take Yadier Molina. Some prefer Molina’s defense, his ability to shut down a running game; others like Posey, because he has been the most consistently excellent hitter when compared to others at this position. He has a career OPS of .861, a neighborhood that Molina has achieved in only one season: 2012, when he had an .874 OPS.

Molina, a future Hall of Famer, is universally regarded as the better defensive player. But Posey’s defense is good, and his pitchers say it's improving in how he calls games and how he handles situations.

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Giants' success weighs on Dodgers - True Blue LA

Mark it down as a bit of schadenfreude on my part, but I enjoy reading about some of this navel gazing on the part of Dodger Nation and A's Nation for that matter. Toss in how Moneyball aficionados angst is rising as they try to explain the Giants success and you have the trifecta of glee for me.

The Giants recent success can be attributed largely to a shift from the Bonds era to spackling and pasting the roster together with aging veterans to building it via old school blocking and tackling in the form of scouting and player development.

from True Blue LA:
Giants' success weighs on Dodgers - True Blue LA:

"I don't think you can win three World Series in five years just by being lucky. That may be stating the obvious There is no doubt that in the postseason, with a single-elimination game, or playing in a best-of-five or best-of-seven series, there are certainly times you need the ball to bounce your way," Zaidi said. "Luck is not a sufficient characteristic for a team to win. You've got to be really good, and have the ball bounce your way too.

The Giants won this year with homegrown players at each starting infield position, plus catcher Buster Posey, too. But what is remarkable to me about their five-year run is that in each of the three title years they have had a different ace starting pitcher, with Tim Lincecum in 2010, Matt Cain in 2012 and Madison Bumgarner in 2014. All three pitchers were drafted by San Francisco, and all are still around.

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"Luck is the Residue of Design" meets "Luck is the differential between the expected result calculated by my theoretical model and the actual result". 

The irony is that the "Luck is the residue of design" quote is attributed to former Dodger GM Branch Rickey, the Billy Beane of his time.  So we come full circle, or everything old is new again, I guess.

Giants' 'state of the franchise' stat pack | CSN Bay Area

Brian Sabean is MLB's longest tenured GM; Bruce Bochy is the second longest tenured manager. (AP)

Now matter how you parse the data, a pretty good team that is in a pretty good state. The lions share of the credit lies in the continuity of the Sabean / Bochy team. Both could ride the wave of euphoria right into Cooperstown. Interesting to note that Sabean and Billy Beane both arrived in the Bay Area within one year of each other. The results and the accolades are still just a tad bit out of line between those two GM's.


from CSN Bay Area:
Giants' 'state of the franchise' stat pack | CSN Bay Area:

Giants Opening Day payrolls
2010 $96.3m
2011 $118.2m
2012 $132.4m
2013 $136.9m
2014 $149.1m

Brian Sabean
Named GM in Septempter 1996
Signed through 2016

Bruce Bochy
Hired in October 2006
Signed through 2016

Current Giants free agents
Pablo Sandoval
Michael Morse
Jake Peavy
Sergio Romo
Ryan Vogelsong

Current Giants contracts
Player -- Signed through -- Years/guaranteed money
Buster Posey -- 2021 with option for 2022 -- 9 years/$167 million
Matt Cain -- 2017 with option for 2018 -- 6 years/$127.5 million
Hunter Pence -- 2018 -- 5 years/$90 million
Madison Bumgarner -- 2017 with options '18 & ’19 -- 5 years/$35 million
Angel Pagan -- 2016 -- 4 years/$40 million
Tim Lincecum -- 2015 2 years/$35 million

Top free agents on the market
Jon Lester P
Max Scherzer P
Victor Martinez 1B/DH
Hanley Ramirez SS/3B
Pablo Sandoval 3B
Nelson Cruz OF
James Shields P
Chase Headley 3B

Giants free agent signings
*Not with team previous season
2013-14
Tim Hudson
Michael Morse
2012-13
Andres Torres
2011-12
Ryan Theriot
Clay Hensley
2010-11
Miguel Tejada
2009-10
Aubrey Huff
Mark DeRosa

Giants 2014 Ranks -- National League
665 runs -- 5th
.255 team batting average -- 4th
132 home runs -- 7th
3.50 team ERA -- 7th
.241 opponents batting average -- 2nd
100 errors -- T-7th

Notable first-round draft picks under Brian Sabean
2022 Matt Cain
2006 Tim Lincecum
2007 Madison Bumgarner
2008 Buster Posey
2011 Joe Panik

Longest-tenured manager with same team
Manager -- Team -- First Year
Mike Scioscia -- Angels -- 2000
Bruce Bochy -- Giants -- 2007
Bud Black -- Padres -- 2007
Joe Girardi -- Yankees -- 2008
Ned Yost -- Royals -- 2010
Buck Showalter -- Orioles -- 2010

Longest-tenured GMs with same team
GM -- Team -- Hired
Brian Sabean -- Giants -- 1996
Billy Beane -- Athletics -- 1997
Brian Cashman -- Yankees -- 1998
Dave Dombrowski -- Tigers -- 2002
Doug Melvin -- Brewers -- 2002

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How much "should" the Panda cost?

I like the methodology and the result derived from Fan Graphs Crowdsourcing effort: 5 years / $79-80M. 

from fangraphs.com
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-55-free-agents/#more-166995

#5 Pablo Sandoval (3B) 

---

Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
27	638	6.1 %	13.3 %	.279	.324	.415	.323	111	3.3	5.3	3.0

Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $16 million
Total: 5 years, $80 million

Average Years: 5.0
Average AAV: $15.9 million
Total: 5.0 years, $79.0 million

Will the Giants extend Sandoval a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 96%. No: 4%.

Will Sandoval accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 96%. Yes: 4%.

There are multiple third-base free-agent options this offseason. Which of the following will record the highest WAR between now and his retirement?
Pablo Sandoval: 48%.
Hanley Ramirez: 34%.
Chase Headley: 18%.

But Mr. Market will care not what the masses think and one team could propel this number into the stratosphere. At least that is the fear among Giants fans. Since the entire off-season depends on re-signing Sandoval, I thought I would crunch the numbers and see what is the best number the Gainst could / should come up with. 

Hey, it's not my money!!

OK, for 2015 the Giants currently have Cain @ $20.83M, Pence @ $18.5M, Lincecum @ $18M (Ugh!) and Posey @ $17.28M according to Cot's Contracts data.  

-- SANDOVAL @ $17M here, lower than Posey and Pence for now. 

For 2016, Cain @ $20.83M, Posey @ $20.78 and Pence @ $18.5. 

-- SANDOVAL @ $18M here, still not Pence money, but stay tuned. 

For 2017, Posey @ $22.18M, Cain @ $20.83M, Pence @ $18.5M, and Pagan falls off as a Free Agent freeing up $11M. 

-- SANDOVAL @ $18-19M here. 

For 2018, Posey @ $22.18M and Pence @ $18.50M.

-- SANDOVAL @ $19-20M here. Ahead of Pence.

For 2019, Posey @ $22.18M and Pence  goes FA, freeing up $18.50 

-- SANDOVAL @ $20-21M here. 

For 2020, which is the sixth year, again SANDOVAL @ $20-21M here. 

So for 4 years you are @ $72-74M. The fifth year gets you to $92-93M and the sixth year fleshes out @ $112-114M and you get to stay in the best place in the world for the Panda to finish out his career and flesh out his legacy by walking among Giants. 

You're welcome!!!

  

Giants, Pablo Sandoval Making Progress Towards A Deal – On-Base Talk

If true, this is great news. Given that Brain Sabean has put all his 3B eggs in Pablo's basket, this becomes an almost must win for the Gigantes in the off-season. I can see where they bring him back in the 5 year/ $80 million range. Anything over that and I think it might hurt the franchise's future more by signing him than by letting him walk.

from On-Base Talk:
Giants, Pablo Sandoval Making Progress Towards A Deal – On-Base Talk:

Contract talks between third baseman Pablo Sandoval and the San Francisco Giants are rising to the point that many other teams are looking to different options at third, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney. Olney also reported that, other teams are having trouble convincing Sandoval to sign anywhere other than in San Francisco. It was reported earlier this week that Sandoval wanted a six-year deal and wanted to stay in the Bay Area. 

 The 28-year-old has won three World Series championships, a World Series MVP, a Babe Ruth Award and is a two-time All Star. He also hit three consecutive home runs in his first three at-bats during Game 1 of the 2012 World Series against the Detroit Tigers. Sandoval was also a huge part of the Giants’ recent World Series victory, as he recorded an MLB record 26 hits in the 2014 postseason.

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If you can get Sandoval to stay for 5 / $80, I could see the way clear where the Giants could then sign:

• Morse @ 1 years / $7M or 2 years / $15M
• Romo @ 2 years / $12M and he's making noises like he's rather stay in SF
• Vogelsong @ 1 year / $7M or 2 years / $15M

That leaves Peavy as the only loss and I can live with that one.

I still don't understand Sabean's comment to the effect that Pablo is the only option (Pablo or Bust) at 3B next year and they have no others in the organization.

“We don’t have a solution in house,” Sabean said. “It would have to come from the outside.”

Aside from Posey who could -- as an athletic ex-catcher like Sandoval was -- make the transition easier than you think, the Giants could move Marco Scutaro there rather than outside the organization and get some return on the $6.7 million they have him signed for. This say nothing about the efforts that Matt Duffy and Adam Duvall made late this year. What does that tell your prospects except "We have no faith in you. Your early efforts to impress us sucked".

The Gianst have options within the organization at 3B. They might not be as good as Pablo, but Pablo comes with considerable risks for every year over 3 on the long-term deal IMO and every dollar over $15-16M.

The Pence plus notion is for suckers. Let the Red Sox or the Blue Jays or the White Sox play sucker.

Longoria weighs in on Maddon Successor

If this is the shopping list, Martinez would be the front-runner for me as well, from a continuity standpoint. So I agree with Longoria. The buzz is that Manny Acta would be a better choice, having made his rookie mistakes with another franchise, and there is something to that theory. Some of the better managers in baseball were fired once before they figured things out. Montoyo give the Rays continuity, especially with the players younger than Longoria.

from Yahoo Sports:
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/evan-longoria-says-dave-martinez-is-the--obvious-pick--for-rays-new-manager-015716638.html

However, if the decision belonged to the face of the franchise, three-time All-Star Evan Longoria, it sounds like there wouldn't be much of a decision to make. During an appearance on the MLB Network program MLB Now on Friday afternoon, Longoria didn't hesitate to tab Dave Martinez as the clear choice for the job, citing his familiarity with the situation and perhaps some personal hope that the team does in fact stay the course. 

If Martinez doesn't get the job, there's a chance he too would move on, meaning a whole new regime would take charge. That's not lost on Longoria, either, and wholesale changes understandably don't sound very appealing.  

Ron Wotus would be my second choice and while I don't want to see the Giants lose him, he suffers from a similar knock that comes Martinez' way in that most feel if he was that good a candidate, he would have been hired by now. He does have three rings though and there is something to that.

Martinez suffers the same fate in Tampa, except who was going to let Maddon go to make room for him? Wakamatsu has been in the pipeline for some time as well, he may be in the same coaches purgatory as Wotus. Kevin Cash gives you some "local hero" flair being an ex-Tampa Gaither HS product, but if you're looking for an extra ticket sales kicker, listen to Al Davis and "just win, baby".

The recent trend to hiring ex-players and ex-marquee players at that would lean you towards Ibanez, but there seem to be better candidates who have paid their dues as base coaches or assistants. Too soon for Ibanez, Cash and Counsell IMO.

Bottom line, and I don't know how any of these guys interview, I would focus on:

• Martinez
• Wotus
• Montoya 
• Acta
• Wakamatsu
• Cash, Counsell and Ibanez are also-rans 

Eight is a big list, the Rays need to focus on qualtity here, not quantity.

FIRE UP THE HOT STOVE LEAGUE!!

Several Giants will ring the cash register shortly - Who stays and who goes?

We're going to find out pretty quickly whether the core of the Giants stays intact or cracks. As I've said before, I think the Giants can be compete for Pablo Sandoval @ about 5 years / $80-$90M. If it goes much higher, he is likely to leave.

from SI.com
After another World Series title, what's coming for Giants in offseason? - MLB - SI.com:

For starters, series MVP Madison Bumgarner isn't going anywhere. While the 25-year-old lefty spent the past month making it clear that he belongs on the short list of the game's elite pitchers, he's not headed for a Clayton Kershaw-like payday anytime soon. Bumgarner just completed the second year of a five-year, $35 million extension signed in April 2012; he made $3.75 million this year, and will make $6.75 million next year, or $23.25 million less than the Dodgers' ace lefty. His contract is guaranteed through 2017, after which the Giants hold $12 million options on his 2018 and '19 seasons. Those options can vest based on innings thresholds, and increase to as much as $16 million if he wins a Cy Young award — still a bargain by the standards of the game's top-tier starters. Bumgarner is one of four Giants under contract through at least 2017, with Hunter Pence, Buster Posey and the injured Matt Cain being the others.

On the other side of the coin, the team does have several players headed for free agency, and they won't keep all of them, even with around $62 million worth of room between their 2015 commitments ($127.3 million, according to Cot's Contracts) and the $189 million luxury tax threshold. Closest to their core is Pablo Sandoval, who probably earned himself a few extra million dollars thanks to a .366/.423/.465 showing in 78 postseason plate appearances, with an OPS above 1.000 in both the NLCS and the World Series, not to mention some dazzling defense.

'via Blog this'

Jake Peavy likely will be too rich for the Giants blood and with Cain back healthy and Petit and option in the rotation, the starting rotation has enough quantity, a return to form by Tim Lincecum would help with the quality.

I think Romo and Vogelsong can both be retained at almost the same salary between the two of them. The Dodgers interest in Romo could be the deciding factor. I would like to see Romo stay in case Machi forgets how to throw the fork-ball and Strickland doesn't figure out how to keep left-handed batters in the park.

Michael Morse is the wild-card. The experts are assuming that AL teams are going to come a knocking for Morse to play a DH heavy role next year. If he's good with that, he may be gone. The problem signing Morse if he is going to want three years minimum and I would feel better with a two year deal in case the Giants need to make room for Mac Williamson or Gary Brown develops into more than a bongo drum for Hunter Pence.

I love the folks who say, well let Sandoval go, let Morse go, we'll just sign Hanley Ramirez or the Cuban free-agent Tomas or God forbid Melky Cabrera. Do they think those guys will cost appreciably less than retaining Sandoval or Morse? At least Jake Peavy is replaced by a returning Matt Cain. It's why he was brought over here.

The ghost of Aubrey Huff still lurks by the Giants cash register, that's for sure. That's creepy!!!

WORST BUSTER HUG EVER!!!