Tuesday, November 11, 2014

How much "should" the Panda cost?



I like the methodology and the result derived from Fan Graphs Crowdsourcing effort: 5 years / $79-80M. 

from fangraphs.com
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-55-free-agents/#more-166995

#5 Pablo Sandoval (3B) 

AgePABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR
276386.1 %13.3 %.279.324.415.3231113.35.33.0
Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $16 million
Total: 5 years, $80 million
Average Years: 5.0
Average AAV: $15.9 million
Total: 5.0 years, $79.0 million
Will the Giants extend Sandoval a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 96%. No: 4%.
Will Sandoval accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 96%. Yes: 4%.
There are multiple third-base free-agent options this offseason. Which of the following will record the highest WAR between now and his retirement?
Pablo Sandoval: 48%.
Hanley Ramirez: 34%.
Chase Headley: 18%.

But Mr. Market will care not what the masses think and one team could propel this number into the stratosphere. At least that is the fear among Giants fans. Since the entire off-season depends on re-signing Sandoval, I thought I would crunch the numbers and see what is the best number the Gainst could / should come up with. 

Hey, it's not my money!!

OK, for 2015 the Giants currently have Cain @ $20.83M, Pence @ $18.5M, Lincecum @ $18M (Ugh!) and Posey @ $17.28M according to Cot's Contracts data.  
-- SANDOVAL @ $17M here, lower than Posey and Pence for now. 

For 2016, Cain @ $20.83M, Posey @ $20.78 and Pence @ $18.5. 
-- SANDOVAL @ $18M here, still not Pence money, but stay tuned. 

For 2017, Posey @ $22.18M, Cain @ $20.83M, Pence @ $18.5M, and Pagan falls off as a Free Agent freeing up $11M. 
-- SANDOVAL @ $18-19M here. 

For 2018, Posey @ $22.18M and Pence @ $18.50M.
-- SANDOVAL @ $19-20M here. Ahead of Pence.

For 2019, Posey @ $22.18M and Pence  goes FA, freeing up $18.50 
-- SANDOVAL @ $20-21M here. 

For 2020, which is the sixth year, again SANDOVAL @ $20-21M here. 

So for 4 years you are @ $72-74M. The fifth year gets you to $92-93M and the sixth year fleshes out @ $112-114M and you get to stay in the best place in the world for the Panda to finish out his career and flesh out his legacy by walking among Giants. 

You're welcome!!!

  


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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.