Given the recent noise from the Giants about being at / near the top of the budget, I don't see how they can be in the running for Shields at 5 years / $110 M.
from HardballTalk:
Giants, Red Sox still in the picture for James Shields | HardballTalk:
Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe reports that the Giants and Red Sox are still “in the picture” for free agent starter James Shields, adding that the Yankees are another possible suitor. According to Cafardo’s source, Shields is expected to fetch five years and around $110 million.
Shields, who turned 33 on Saturday, finished the 2014 season with a 14-8 record, a 3.21 ERA, and a 180/44 K/BB ratio in 227 innings for the Royals. He had mediocre results in the post-season, posting a 6.12 ERA in 25 innings. “Big Game James” took losses in both starts he made against the Giants in World Series Games 1 and 5.'via Blog this'
Plus, if you compare Shields and Peavy, you're almost looking at the same guy statistically speaking. Performance-wise, you can probably make a better case for Peavy. If you're saying that because of the perception of Peavy maybe having excess mileage, or higher potential for breaking down going forward making the difference between a $12M AAV in Peavy versus a $22M AAV in Shields, then I'm just saying some agent is going to get more than a huge bro-hug and one might be due a punch in the eyeball.
Drilling deeper, according to the repertoire and velocity comparison, Shields velocity has gone up the last couple of years from 91.31 in 2010 to 92.49 in 2014 (+1.16 MPH) while Peavy has lost a bit of his FB, dropping from 91.06 to 89.88 (-1.18 MPH) during the smae 2010-2014 period.
They always say velocity isn't important, maybe as a stand alone metric, but clearly in this comparison, it may have just made an $86M difference.
from the baseballcube.com
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/reports/compare.asp
| Positions: | P-429 | ||
| Proper Name: | Jacob Edward Peavy | ||
| Born: | May 31, 1981 (33.204) in Mobile, Alabama | ||
| Height/Weight: | 6-1 / 180 | Bats/Throws: | Right-Right |
| Positions: | P-369 | ||
| Proper Name: | James Anthony Shields | ||
| Born: | December 20, 1981 (33.001) in Newhall, California | ||
| Height/Weight: | 6-3 / 190 | Bats/Throws: | Right-Right JAMES SHIELDS |
| Pitch Repertoire | Fastball (27.07%) -- Changeup (26.74%) -- 2-Seam Fastball (14.16%) -- Cutter (11.76%) -- Curveball(11.45%) -- Slider (8.82%) |
| Fastball Velocity: | [2014] - 92.49 - [2013] - 92.14 - [2012] - 92.03 - [2011] - 90.9 - [2010] - 91.31 JAKE PEAVY |
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The assist goes to Mrs. The Slav for cropping the stats so they fit the page size without spilling over the edge.
(CLICK TO ENLARGE)
The Peavy deal is looking better and better for the Giants in terms of Average Annual Value (AAV) and number of years committed. If they have that much money to commit to Shields, maybe the money would be better spent on Mikey Mo's replacement in LF. You saved about $15M on the Sandoval-McGehee shuffle at 3B and Morse was in for about $10M last season. You only spent $12M on Peavy, so minimum there should be $13M left. That's if you stay even payroll-wise and that would be kind of a slap in the face to the fans and the franchise considering you are now getting a third chance to defend the title and get it right by winning in consecutive years. That would put all debate about "Giants, dynasty or not?" to rest. You lost on Tomas in LF, let Morse walk when he didn't get near what he could have / should have and let the Padres load up on guys that you could easily swing over to LF. Running out of options there guys. I'm not sure you can pull a Dexter Fowler out of your hat and satisfy the populace. Your going to have to have something bigger up your sleeve there. Maybe it's time to let go of the James Shields chase and spend for a competent bat. It's not like this was the greatest offensive lineup in the world at times last year, you know?
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