I use the BaseballReference.com 2015 Official Hall of Fame Ballot to confirm what my eyes tell me to fill out what would be my HOF ballot.
from Forbes.com
First-Timers Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez And John Smoltz, Holdover Craig Biggio Expected To Enter Baseball's Hall Of Fame:
In my more than 20 years of voting for baseball’s Hall of Fame, there has never been a ballot like the 2015 edition. There are arguably 15 players worthy of consideration, an unprecedented number. Usually, it’s fairly easy to focus on a trio of sure-fire candidates and then examine some who appear borderline. This year there are five first-time eligibles with excellent credentials, six holdovers and four who would be automatics if not for their steroid use.
Let’s take a closer look starting with the four first-timers on my ballot:
Randy Johnson – Nicknamed “The Big Unit” because of his menacing size, Johnson captured five Cy Young Awards, including a record-tying four straight from 1999 to 2002, and struck out 4,875 batters, second only to Nolan Ryan.
Pedro Martinez – A fierce competitor, Martinez compiled a career winning percentage of .687, the best mark of any pitcher who began his career after 1950 and sixth all time. He won three Cy Youngs and finished second twice.
John Smoltz – Best known for his clutch pitching in the postseason, Smoltz was 15-4 with a 2.67 ERA when it mattered the most. He’s also the only pitcher in history with more than 200 wins and 150 saves.
Gary Sheffield – Known for his consistent power and production, Sheffield had 14 seasons of more than 20 homers, eight with more than 30 and two with over 40.'via Blog this'
I like the two Bill James metrics, the HOF Monitor and the HOF Career Standards. The Hall of Fame Monitor (HOFm) measures the chances of a player being elected and the Career Standards (HOFs) measures how well a players career measures up to the typical standards of the HOF with 50 being the average Hall of Famer. Sort of the WAR of Hall of Fame metrics.
BTW: I think it was Bill James who said that there is likely five current Hall of Famers who used PEDs. I assume this is based on statistical anomalies through their career. Somebody also observed that this year's class will likely include two "suspect" players and I assume that excludes Bonds and Clemens, who nobody gives a chance of getting in this year.
The No-Doubters:
Bonds ( 76 HOFs ) and Clemens ( 73 HOFs )
The Don't have to think too hard:
Randy Johnson ( 65 ), Mike Piazza ( 62 ), Gary Sheffield ( 61 ) Pedro Martinez ( 60 )
Sorry, when you're better than 60% of the existing Hall of Fame, to not include these guys makes a mockery of guys that got in with significantly inferior stats by comparison, Last year, Frank Thomas was coronated with a 60 HOFs and Tom Glavine got in with a 52. Smoltz is considered a lock this year at a 44 HOFs. Reconcile that math, please.
The Should be in, not much argument:
Jeff Bagwell (59), Larry Walker (58), Craig Biggio (57), Mike Mussina (54), Sammy Sosa (52), Jeff Kent (51), Edgar Martinez (50).
If Frank Thomas gets in as pretty much a career DH, how does Edgar Martinez not make it? Here again a little selective discrimination, without much basis, against a guy who was just playing under the rule structure that was in place. I'm sure if he knew he would face this, he would have donned a glove and played the field more often.
The Maybe. Maybe next year crowd:
Fred McGriff (48)
Tim Raines (47)
Curt Schilling (46) If Smoltz gets in.....virtually statistically equal across the board
John Smoltz (44) Once he gets in, do we have to consider Steve Avery next year ?
Carlos Delgado (44) DH rule hurting here, as well?
Mark McGwire (42)
Brian Giles (41) Really?
Nomar Garciaparra (40)
Alan Trammell (40)
Don Mattingly (34)
See, this is where guys like Mattingly and Trammell get hurt. If they get in, I'm going to start beating the drums for Brian Giles to get in.
Ain't stats fun?
Epic rant by Ray Ratto in this article:
http://www.csnbayarea.com/giants/mlb-hall-fame-voting-starts-tuesday-and-everyone-loses
Suggested changes to the current system
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/54223/the-broken-hall-of-fame-voting-system
Pure politics
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