Friday, August 21, 2015

To the Unheralded Ones - NL Rookie of the Year No Longer a Two-Horse Race | FanGraphs



Both the catch by Juan Perez, making a spot start in CF just up from AAA, and the FanGraphs article below, speculating on the chances of Matt Duffy and perhaps Chris Heston in the Rookie of the Year chase, demonstrate why the Giants have won three rings in the last five years. They get big-time contributions from a seemingly endless parade of  what were heretofore nondescript, unheralded players.

A bunch of "Meh" Guys. The Unheralded Ones.

from fangraphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nl-rookie-of-the-year-no-longer-a-two-horse-race/

Heading into the season, Kris Bryant enjoyed favored status when it came to predicting a National League Rookie of the Year. When FanGraphs writers were polled before the season, 20 of 36 votes went to the Chicago Cubs’ third baseman; seven went Joc Pederson; six were cast for Jorge SolerNoah Syndergaard,Jung Ho Kang and Raisel Iglesias each got one. A couple months into the season, Pederson inserted himself into the race with 13 home runs by the end of May. As the year has moved on, Bryant and Pederson have come back to the pack a bit while Matt Duffy, Kang and Syndergaard have moved into the conversation for the NL’s top rookie. The award is no longer a two-horse battle, and all the players who have risen up are sure to see plenty of exposure since each of them is in the middle of a pennant race.
 NL ROY CANDIDATES- CUMULATIVE OFFENSIVE RUNS ABOVE AVERAGE
The chart below shows each rookie’s current WAR and the rest of the season projection from the FanGraphs Depth Charts. The third column adds the first two, showing the expected WAR at the end of the season.

WARROS WARUPDATED WAR
Kris Bryant3.41.65.0
Matt Duffy3.10.83.9
Joc Pederson2.71.13.8
Noah Syndergaard2.51.23.7
Jung-Ho Kang2.70.83.5
Randal Grichuk2.70.63.3
Chris Heston2.30.93.2
Maikel Franco1.30.72.0
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  • Matt Duffy didn't appear on too many Top 10 prospects list, certainly not mine, but was a cult favorite among Giants watchers.
  • Joe Panik was met with mostly yawns and generally panned as a first rounder. 
  • Chris Heston was not a Top Ten Prospect, yet makes a solid contribution as a starter.
  • Add in the bench mob, guys like Juan Perez and Gregor Blanco, who would be a starter and a solid contributor on quite a few teams.  

So yeah, it would be nice to dream of Matt Duffy winning the ROY award this year. But let's face it, Kris Bryant was the pre-season Heralded One by the prognosticators ( see FanGraphs reference) and they have a vested interest in confirming their predictions ( see, I was right!! Yippee!! ). Matt Duffy was heralded by NOBODY. Therefore, just like in boxing. Duffy is the challenger and has to either knock-out or decisively win by decision or acclamation. If both guys are standing at the end of the year and it's close statistically, the decision will go to Bryant. Having said that, (or really having written that) I do give Duffy a punchers chance to win because he is such a fighter and has overcome long odds his entire professional career just to get to this spot.

So, MATT DUFFY for ROOKIE OF THE YEAR!! Or just break the odd year even year thingy. Whatever. A little more help from some of the more heralded ones not named Bumgarner or Posey or Crawford would be of great help in that regard.


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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.