Both Baseball America and MLB.com revised their prospect rankings recently and published the results. One thing in particular stands out about the Giants prospect list. It is fluid.
We cried when the G-men drafted Christian Arroyo, but now apparently he is the fair-haired boy, the successor to Duffy and Panik, nay Kelby Tomlinson!!
And now we're crying about the demise, the slide down the list, that is Kyle Crick. Once known as Matt Cain 2.0, of course, now we have an actual Matt Cain 2.0, who actually goes by the name of Matt Cain and carries with him a 2.0 version of his right elbow. You know, the one he pitches with and deposits $20M annual paychecks with.
A lot of crying and angst looking at these lists, I will say that. But somebody has to do it.
The first group is the consensus group, the most dangerous group to be in because expectations are elevated and there is theoretically only one place to go, DOWN. In reality, the Panik, Duffy, Susac, Tomlinson glide path is more preferred, there's just only so many rooms at the inn, so to speak.
The Consensus Four:
Tyler Beede, RHP
Christian Arroyo, SS
Adalberto Mejia, LHP
Clayton Blackburn, RHP
Of this group, Blackburn is not that highly regarded by most, he just gets guys out and makes the stat guys take notice and the "jeans sellers" (Moneyball reference) throw up in their mouths.
Mejia screams trade-bait to me. Arroyo and Beede would be keepers, but if Car-go (Rockies reference) is available, I'd package two from this list right now.
The second-tier consensus:
These guys make a lot of lists but have a lot of ??'s attached to them
Kyle Crick, RHP
Steven Okert, LHP
Aramis Garcia, C
Ty Blach, LHP
Crick and Okert both have great stuff they just don't know where it's going. That gets coaches fired. Okert compounds it with an ever-growing medical file. He is left-handed though, so it pays to be patient. Blach is 25, so it's show or go time. He has to show what he has or go somewhere else. He is left-handed though so.....see above.
The 25'ers:
Twenty-five years old, still playing in the minors, do I have to spell it out? Show time or go time.
Mac Williamson, OF
Chris Stratton, RHP
Derek Law, RHP
Mac Williamson has five-tool talent written all over him and looks great getting off the bus. Which begs the question.....Why is he not in SF? Better find out what he has this year. Same with Jarrett Parker, who's older BTW.
Stratton really hasn't sown much since they drafted him high, Derek Law has probably shown more, but is battling his medical file as well.
The Young'uns:
Everybody loves these guys. The prospect-sphere sure likes 'em young. That even sounded dirty writing it, but it's a known fact.
Phil Bickford, RHP
Lucius Fox, SS
Sam Coonrod, RHP
Chris Shaw, 1B
Jalen Miller, SS
Andrew Suarez, LHP
Mac Marshall, LHP
Some of these guys, like Coonrod, aren't necessarily young, just not seasoned professionals. Coonrod lights up the stats. He may be a tweener as far as starter or reliever goes, but the stuff is pretty compelling at this point. Good mix of pitching and hitting. A couple of these guys could fill out a prospect-laden package for a veteran LF'er. The Giants loaded up the cart last year, this year they are already down the first-rounder for signing Samardzija. A trade empties the cart a little bit, but for the right guy......who knows?
Anything is possible and as always, FLUID.
At this point, as far as the statistical indicators go, the only prospects with more than a small-sample size that I would put my money on would be Blackburn, Coonrod and Derek Law (with a clean bill of health) on the pitching side. Crick, Stratton and maybe Okert have to turn things around quickly.
On the hitting side, I think Williamson will hit given the opportunity and a clean bill of health. Arroyo is getting there, I am anxious to see how he handles AA for an extended amount of AB's. Slater, Cole and Dylan Davis (college bats) need to start advancing and handling AA-AAA pitching in the next year or so, but could still be dark-horses in the Duffy/Tomlinson mold.
It's also a pivotal year for former HS SS Ryder Jones lest he go the route of Rafael Rodriguez and Chuckie Jones, ie: the "whatever became of" route. Stephen Duggar (OF from Clemson) has to prove he is not Gary Brown 2.0, ie: a toolsy OF who doesn't produce up to the potential scouts place on his athletic gifts.
Giants love them some toolsy OF, however their prospect graveyard is littered with many that have an eptitath that begins with "Whatever became of....?" That needs to change soon. We need OF versions of Matt Duffy and Kelby Tomlinsom.
Speaking of which, whatever happened to Daniel Carbonell?
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